Strategies for power generation in Cyprus

Strategies for power generation Strategies for power generation

in Cyprusin Cyprus

Dr. Andreas PoullikkasElectricity Authority of Cyprus

1Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23 rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus

Contents

• Energy demand and climate changeEnergy demand and climate change

• EU energy policyEU energy policy– Main objective and strategyMain objective and strategy

– Future power systemsFuture power systems

• Cyprus power generation systemCyprus power generation system

• Cyprus challengesCyprus challenges– Integration of RES-E technologiesIntegration of RES-E technologies

– The case of CSP technologyThe case of CSP technology

• ConclusionsConclusions2

Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus

Energy demand and climate Energy demand and climate changechange

Present and future statusPresent and future status

3Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus

Energy demand and climate change


Global primary energyGlobal primary energy

SourceSource: : e2050, 2006.e2050, 2006.



Night lights in 2000Night lights in 2000

SourceSource: : e2050, 2006.e2050, 2006.



Night lights in 2070Night lights in 2070

SourceSource: : e2050, 2006.e2050, 2006.



Global warmingGlobal warming todaytoday ! !

SourceSource: : J.R. Petit J.R. Petit et alet al, Nature, 1999., Nature, 1999.



SourceSource: : U.S. National Climatic Data Center, 2001.U.S. National Climatic Data Center, 2001.

Global warmingGlobal warming

EU energy policyEU energy policy

The future energy systemsThe future energy systems


EU energy policy

Main objectiveMain objective

• limitlimit the global temperature increase to 2°C by the global temperature increase to 2°C by

2020 (compared to pre-industrial levels)2020 (compared to pre-industrial levels)

Main strategyMain strategy

• an EU an EU commitmentcommitment to achieve at least a 20% to achieve at least a 20%

reduction of greenhouse gases by 2020 reduction of greenhouse gases by 2020

(compared to 1990 levels)(compared to 1990 levels)


Energy for a changing worldEnergy for a changing world

EU energy policy

How ?How ?

• efficientefficient conversion and use of energy in all conversion and use of energy in all sectors of the economysectors of the economy

• fullfull liberalization and interconnection of liberalization and interconnection of energy systemsenergy systems

• decarbonizationdecarbonization of the transport system of the transport system through switching to alternative fuelsthrough switching to alternative fuels

• diversificationdiversification of the energy mix in favor of of the energy mix in favor of renewables and low-carbon conversion renewables and low-carbon conversion technologies for electricity, heating and technologies for electricity, heating and coolingcooling


EU energy policy

Towards a low carbon future: European Strategic Energy Technology PlanTowards a low carbon future: European Strategic Energy Technology Plan

• 20152015 construction and operation to 12 large scale demonstrations of COconstruction and operation to 12 large scale demonstrations of CO22 capture capture

and storage technologies in commercial power generationand storage technologies in commercial power generation

• 20202020 full commercialization of the above technologiesfull commercialization of the above technologies

• 20202020 share of renewable energy sources in energy production will reach 20% share of renewable energy sources in energy production will reach 20%

• 20202020 measures for the increase of energy efficiency in all sectors will achieve a measures for the increase of energy efficiency in all sectors will achieve a

20% reduction of the primary energy use20% reduction of the primary energy use

• 22030030 electricity and heat will be produced from low carbon sources and extensive electricity and heat will be produced from low carbon sources and extensive

near-zero emission fossil fuel power plants with COnear-zero emission fossil fuel power plants with CO22 capture and storage capture and storage

• 20302030 use of 2use of 2ndnd generation bio-fuels and hydrogen fuel cells generation bio-fuels and hydrogen fuel cells in the transport sectorin the transport sector

• 20502050 switch to low carbon should be completed; overall energy mix that could switch to low carbon should be completed; overall energy mix that could

includeinclude

– large shares for renewableslarge shares for renewables

– sustainable coal and gassustainable coal and gas

– sustainable hydrogensustainable hydrogen

– Generation IV fission power andGeneration IV fission power and

– fusionfusion


increase of increase of research budget research budget in energy by 50%in energy by 50%

EU energy policy


EU energy system today*EU energy system today*

(coal, oil, nuclear) (natural gas)* Poullikkas A., 2009, * Poullikkas A., 2009, Introduction to Power Generation TechnologiesIntroduction to Power Generation Technologies, ISBN: , ISBN: 978-1-60876-472-3978-1-60876-472-3

EU energy policy


EU energy system inEU energy system in 2020 2020-30*-30*

(coal, oil, nuclear, natural gas)(coal, oil, natural gas)* Poullikkas A., 2009, * Poullikkas A., 2009, Introduction to Power Generation TechnologiesIntroduction to Power Generation Technologies, ISBN: , ISBN: 978-1-60876-472-3978-1-60876-472-3

EU energy policy


EU energy system in 2040-50*EU energy system in 2040-50*

(coal, nuclear, natural gas) (coal, nuclear, natural gas)

* Poullikkas A., 2009, * Poullikkas A., 2009, Introduction to Power Generation TechnologiesIntroduction to Power Generation Technologies, ISBN: , ISBN: 978-1-60876-472-3978-1-60876-472-3

EU vision for power EU vision for power

systemssystems16


TodayTodayTomorrow: Tomorrow: CCS, RES, DG and CCS, RES, DG and hydrogen storagehydrogen storage

EU energy policyEU energy policy

SourceSource: : EC, EC,

2007.2007.

The EU energy policy

Main ingredients of future Main ingredients of future

sustainable electric systemssustainable electric systems

– Renewable energy sourcesRenewable energy sources

– Distributed generationDistributed generation

– Zero emission power plantsZero emission power plants

– Storage devicesStorage devices

Development of new sustainable Development of new sustainable

technologies and infrastructuretechnologies and infrastructure


air air inletinlet

combustion combustion chamberchamber

turbineturbine

compressorcompressor

exhaustexhaust

generatorgenerator

~

generatorgenerator

~

heat heat recovery recovery

steam steam generatgenerat..

steam steam turbineturbine

condensercondenser

pumppump

steamsteam

feed feed waterwater

gasifiergasifier

gas coolinggas cooling

steamsteam

syngas syngas CO/HCO/H22

OO22

coalcoal

water water gas gas

shiftshift

CO2 compressionCO2 compression

acid gas acid gas removal and removal and

cleaningcleaning

Air Air separatseparat. . unitunit

NN22

air air inletinlet

combustion combustion chamberchamber

turbineturbine

compressorcompressor

exhaustexhaust

generatorgenerator

~

generatorgenerator

~

heat heat recovery recovery

steam steam generatgenerat..

steam steam turbineturbine

condensercondenser

pumppump

steamsteam

feed feed waterwater

gasifiergasifier

gas coolinggas cooling

steamsteam

syngas syngas CO/HCO/H22

OO22

coalcoal

water water gas gas

shiftshift

CO2 compressionCO2 compression

acid gas acid gas removal and removal and

cleaningcleaning

Air Air separatseparat. . unitunit

NN22

Cyprus power generation systemCyprus power generation system

Existing and future plansExisting and future plans


Power generation system statistics (year Power generation system statistics (year

202009)09)

• Small island isolated power systemSmall island isolated power system

• Installed capacityInstalled capacity 1388ΜWe 1388ΜWe

• GenerationGeneration 51 5178G78GWhWh

• Peak load Peak load 1103MWe1103MWe

• Average power generation cost ~9€c/kWhAverage power generation cost ~9€c/kWh19



Present generation systemPresent generation system


66xx3030MWe steam turbinesMWe steam turbines

44x37,5MWex37,5MWe gas turbinesgas turbines

66xx6060MWe steam turbinesMWe steam turbines2x50MWe internal2x50MWe internalcombustion enginescombustion engines

3x3x130130MWe MWe steam turbinessteam turbines

11xx220220MWeMWe combined cyclecombined cycle

11x3x388MWeMWe gas turbine gas turbine

Steam turbinesSteam turbines and ICEand ICE::HFOHFO

Gas turbines and Gas turbines and combined cyclecombined cycle::dieseldiesel

11x11MWe internalx11MWe internalcombustion enginescombustion engines


Projects under developmentProjects under development

• 11x220MWex220MWe combined cycle plant incombined cycle plant in 201 20144

((diesel or natural gasdiesel or natural gas) )

Projects under designProjects under design

• 11x220MWe x220MWe combined cycle plant incombined cycle plant in 201 20199

((natural gasnatural gas))



Existing RES-E (2010)Existing RES-E (2010)



PVs; 4Biomass; 6

Wind; 82

0

25

50

75

100

Inst

alle

d c

apac

ity

(MW

e)

Cyprus challengesCyprus challenges

RES penetrationRES penetration


• Short-termShort-term (2010-2020) (2010-2020)

– Switching to natural gasSwitching to natural gas

– Integration of RES-E technologiesIntegration of RES-E technologies

• Mid-term (2020-2030)Mid-term (2020-2030)

– Switching to low carbon energy mixSwitching to low carbon energy mix

• Long-term (2040-2050)Long-term (2040-2050)

– Switching to green hydrogen economySwitching to green hydrogen economy


Cyprus challengesCyprus challenges

A case study

A strategic plan for the promotion of renewable energy sources in the Cyprus

electricity generation system*

* A study undertaken under the direct supervision of

Cyprus Energy Regulatory Authority (CERA)


Integration of RES-E technologies

http://www.cera.org.cy/main/default.aspx

Main objectiveMain objective

• to assess the unavoidable increase in the cost of to assess the unavoidable increase in the cost of

electricity of the Cyprus generation system by the electricity of the Cyprus generation system by the

integration of the necessary RES-E technologies for integration of the necessary RES-E technologies for

Cyprus to achieve its national RES energy targetCyprus to achieve its national RES energy target



Important factorsImportant factors

• Fuel avoidance costFuel avoidance cost: by increasing RES-E penetration fuel : by increasing RES-E penetration fuel

consumption reducedconsumption reduced

• COCO22 avoidance cost avoidance cost: by increasing RES-E penetration CO: by increasing RES-E penetration CO22

emissions reducedemissions reduced

• Conventional power system operating costConventional power system operating cost: by increasing : by increasing

RES-E penetration the conventional power system operating RES-E penetration the conventional power system operating

cost is increased due to the increased requirements of cost is increased due to the increased requirements of

conventional reserve capacityconventional reserve capacity




Op

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an

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P m

od

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ple

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tin

g I

PP

an

d W

AS

P m

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)

CO2 emissions

N

Generate technol. variables

Input data and scenarios

IPP model simulations

Converge?

Viable technologies

ranking

Generate externalities cost

RES fund income scenarios

Converge?

Electricity unit cost, financial indicators (including externalities)

Y

N

Global data and assumptions

Optimum feed-in tariffs

IPP model

Input data and scenarios

Generate generation system

variables

WASP model simulations

Y

Converge? N

WASP model

Candidate RES technologies

CO2 emissions

EAC RES purchase price Optimum

electricity unit cost

Optimum generation system electricity unit cost

Eligible feed-in tariffs

Generation system electricity unit cost (excluding externalities)


0123456789

10111213141516171819202122232425

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Year

Ele

ctri

city

uni

t cos

t (€c

/kW

h)

CSP with thermal storage 6h

PV

Wind

Biomass


RES-E production cost at IRR=0%RES-E production cost at IRR=0%


0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

Incr

ease

in

elec

tric

ity

unit

cos

t (i

n re

al p

rice

s)

(€c/

kWh)

RES penetration (%)



RES-E penetration cost at IRR=12%RES-E penetration cost at IRR=12%

RES-E RES-E

penetration at penetration at

16% by 202016% by 2020


0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Inst

alle

d ca

paci

ty (

MW

e)

Year

Wind

PVs

CSP with 6h storage

Biomass


RES-E installed capacity at 16% penetrationRES-E installed capacity at 16% penetration


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Ene

rgy

prod

ucti

on (

GW

h)

Year

CSP with 6h storage

Biomass

PVs

Wind


RES-E energy mix at 16% penetrationRES-E energy mix at 16% penetration

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Ene

rgy

prod

ucti

on (

GW

h)

Year

CSP with 6h storage

Biomass

PVs

Wind

New combined cycle plants

Vasilikos combined cycles

Vasilikos gas turbine

Moni gas turbines

Dhekelia ICE

Vasilikos steam plant

Dhekelia steam plant

Moni steam plant



Power Generation system energy mix with 16% RES-E Power Generation system energy mix with 16% RES-E

penetrationpenetration

A case study

The cost of integration of parabolic trough CSP plants in isolated Mediterranean

power systems

Poullikkas A., Hadjipaschalis I., Kourtis G.Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2009


The case of CSP technology

Existing systemExisting system

• Technical characteristicsTechnical characteristics

• Economic characteristicsEconomic characteristics

Committed plantsCommitted plants

• Technical characteristicsTechnical characteristics

• Economic characteristicsEconomic characteristics

Unit Technology Fuel type Commissioning year

Retirement year

Moni power station

ST1 Steam turbine HFO ( 1% S ) 1966 2011






GT1 Gas turbine Gasoil ( 0,1% S ) 1992 -




Dhekelia power station







ICE1* Internal Combustion Engine Gasoil ( 0,1% S ) 2009 2013

ICE2* Internal Combustion Engine Gasoil ( 0,1% S ) 2010 2013

ICE1* Internal Combustion Engine Natural gas 2013 -

ICE2* Internal Combustion Engine Natural gas 2013 -

Vasilikos power station

ST1 Steam turbine HFO ( 1% S ) 2000 -




CC1* Combined Cycle Gasoil ( 0,1% S ) 2009 2013

CC1* Combined Cycle Natural gas 2013 -

CC2 Combined Cycle Natural gas 2013 -

CC3 Combined Cycle Natural gas 2013 -

* For the year 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 gasoil will be used as fuel instead of natural gas.



Candidate scenarios for expansionCandidate scenarios for expansion• Expansion with natural gas combined cycle Expansion with natural gas combined cycle

technologies of 220MWe capacity, (BAU scenario)technologies of 220MWe capacity, (BAU scenario)

• Expansion with one 50MWe parabolic trough CSP plant Expansion with one 50MWe parabolic trough CSP plant

(no thermal storage) in combination with BAU (no thermal storage) in combination with BAU

• Expansion with one 100MWe parabolic trough CSP Expansion with one 100MWe parabolic trough CSP

plant (no thermal storage) in combination with BAUplant (no thermal storage) in combination with BAU

• Expansion with one 50MWe parabolic trough CSP plant Expansion with one 50MWe parabolic trough CSP plant

(10 hours thermal storage) in combination with BAU(10 hours thermal storage) in combination with BAU

• Expansion with one 100MWe parabolic trough CSP Expansion with one 100MWe parabolic trough CSP

plant (10 hours thermal storage) in combination with plant (10 hours thermal storage) in combination with

BAUBAU

• Expansion with parabolic trough CSP technologies of Expansion with parabolic trough CSP technologies of

50MWe capacity, operating hours 24h/day50MWe capacity, operating hours 24h/day36



T

tjtjtjtjtjtj MFSIB

1


WASP IV (Wien Automatic System Planning)WASP IV (Wien Automatic System Planning)

• Find the optimal generation expansion policy for an electric Find the optimal generation expansion policy for an electric

utility system within user-specified constraintsutility system within user-specified constraints

– Bj : Bj : Objective function attached to the expansion plan Objective function attached to the expansion plan jj

– I : I : Capital investment costsCapital investment costs

– S : S : Salvage value of investment costsSalvage value of investment costs

– F : F : Fuel CostsFuel Costs

– M : M : Non-fuel operation and maintenance costsNon-fuel operation and maintenance costs

– Φ :Φ : Cost of energy not served Cost of energy not served

– t : t : time in years (1, 2, …., time in years (1, 2, …., TT))

– T : T : length of the study periodlength of the study period

• Possible constraints: Possible constraints: level of system reliability, annual number level of system reliability, annual number

of new power units, amount of environmental emissions, annual of new power units, amount of environmental emissions, annual

usage of selected fuels, annual energy generation by selected usage of selected fuels, annual energy generation by selected

plantsplants



Average generation system electricity unit cost (for Average generation system electricity unit cost (for Cyprus)Cyprus)


7.87

7.89

8.00

7.89

7.12

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

CSP (24h/day operation)

BAU

BAU and 1x50MWe CSP(no storage)

BAU and 1x100MWeCSP (with 10 hours

storage)

BAU and 1x100MWeCSP (no storage)

Electricity unit cost (USc/kWh)

Summary

• Main ingredients of future Main ingredients of future sustainable electric systemssustainable electric systems– Renewable energy sourcesRenewable energy sources

– Distributed generationDistributed generation

– Zero emission power plantsZero emission power plants

– Storage devicesStorage devices

• RES-E : a challenge for CyprusRES-E : a challenge for Cyprus


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Strategies for power generation in Cyprus

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