Strategies for power generation Strategies for power generation
in Cyprusin Cyprus
Dr. Andreas PoullikkasElectricity Authority of Cyprus
1Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23 rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
Contents
• Energy demand and climate changeEnergy demand and climate change
• EU energy policyEU energy policy– Main objective and strategyMain objective and strategy
– Future power systemsFuture power systems
• Cyprus power generation systemCyprus power generation system
• Cyprus challengesCyprus challenges– Integration of RES-E technologiesIntegration of RES-E technologies
– The case of CSP technologyThe case of CSP technology
• ConclusionsConclusions2
Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
Energy demand and climate Energy demand and climate changechange
Present and future statusPresent and future status
3Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
Energy demand and climate change
4Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
Global primary energyGlobal primary energy
SourceSource: : e2050, 2006.e2050, 2006.
Energy demand and climate change
5Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
Night lights in 2000Night lights in 2000
SourceSource: : e2050, 2006.e2050, 2006.
Energy demand and climate change
6Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
Night lights in 2070Night lights in 2070
SourceSource: : e2050, 2006.e2050, 2006.
Energy demand and climate change
7Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
Global warmingGlobal warming todaytoday ! !
SourceSource: : J.R. Petit J.R. Petit et alet al, Nature, 1999., Nature, 1999.
Energy demand and climate change
8Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
SourceSource: : U.S. National Climatic Data Center, 2001.U.S. National Climatic Data Center, 2001.
Global warmingGlobal warming
EU energy policyEU energy policy
The future energy systemsThe future energy systems
9Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
EU energy policy
Main objectiveMain objective
• limitlimit the global temperature increase to 2°C by the global temperature increase to 2°C by
2020 (compared to pre-industrial levels)2020 (compared to pre-industrial levels)
Main strategyMain strategy
• an EU an EU commitmentcommitment to achieve at least a 20% to achieve at least a 20%
reduction of greenhouse gases by 2020 reduction of greenhouse gases by 2020
(compared to 1990 levels)(compared to 1990 levels)
10Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
Energy for a changing worldEnergy for a changing world
EU energy policy
How ?How ?
• efficientefficient conversion and use of energy in all conversion and use of energy in all sectors of the economysectors of the economy
• fullfull liberalization and interconnection of liberalization and interconnection of energy systemsenergy systems
• decarbonizationdecarbonization of the transport system of the transport system through switching to alternative fuelsthrough switching to alternative fuels
• diversificationdiversification of the energy mix in favor of of the energy mix in favor of renewables and low-carbon conversion renewables and low-carbon conversion technologies for electricity, heating and technologies for electricity, heating and coolingcooling
11Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
EU energy policy
Towards a low carbon future: European Strategic Energy Technology PlanTowards a low carbon future: European Strategic Energy Technology Plan
• 20152015 construction and operation to 12 large scale demonstrations of COconstruction and operation to 12 large scale demonstrations of CO22 capture capture
and storage technologies in commercial power generationand storage technologies in commercial power generation
• 20202020 full commercialization of the above technologiesfull commercialization of the above technologies
• 20202020 share of renewable energy sources in energy production will reach 20% share of renewable energy sources in energy production will reach 20%
• 20202020 measures for the increase of energy efficiency in all sectors will achieve a measures for the increase of energy efficiency in all sectors will achieve a
20% reduction of the primary energy use20% reduction of the primary energy use
• 22030030 electricity and heat will be produced from low carbon sources and extensive electricity and heat will be produced from low carbon sources and extensive
near-zero emission fossil fuel power plants with COnear-zero emission fossil fuel power plants with CO22 capture and storage capture and storage
• 20302030 use of 2use of 2ndnd generation bio-fuels and hydrogen fuel cells generation bio-fuels and hydrogen fuel cells in the transport sectorin the transport sector
• 20502050 switch to low carbon should be completed; overall energy mix that could switch to low carbon should be completed; overall energy mix that could
includeinclude
– large shares for renewableslarge shares for renewables
– sustainable coal and gassustainable coal and gas
– sustainable hydrogensustainable hydrogen
– Generation IV fission power andGeneration IV fission power and
– fusionfusion
12Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
increase of increase of research budget research budget in energy by 50%in energy by 50%
EU energy policy
13Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
EU energy system today*EU energy system today*
(coal, oil, nuclear) (natural gas)* Poullikkas A., 2009, * Poullikkas A., 2009, Introduction to Power Generation TechnologiesIntroduction to Power Generation Technologies, ISBN: , ISBN: 978-1-60876-472-3978-1-60876-472-3
EU energy policy
14Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
EU energy system inEU energy system in 2020 2020-30*-30*
(coal, oil, nuclear, natural gas)(coal, oil, natural gas)* Poullikkas A., 2009, * Poullikkas A., 2009, Introduction to Power Generation TechnologiesIntroduction to Power Generation Technologies, ISBN: , ISBN: 978-1-60876-472-3978-1-60876-472-3
EU energy policy
15Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
EU energy system in 2040-50*EU energy system in 2040-50*
(coal, nuclear, natural gas) (coal, nuclear, natural gas)
* Poullikkas A., 2009, * Poullikkas A., 2009, Introduction to Power Generation TechnologiesIntroduction to Power Generation Technologies, ISBN: , ISBN: 978-1-60876-472-3978-1-60876-472-3
EU vision for power EU vision for power
systemssystems16
Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
TodayTodayTomorrow: Tomorrow: CCS, RES, DG and CCS, RES, DG and hydrogen storagehydrogen storage
EU energy policyEU energy policy
SourceSource: : EC, EC,
2007.2007.
The EU energy policy
Main ingredients of future Main ingredients of future
sustainable electric systemssustainable electric systems
– Renewable energy sourcesRenewable energy sources
– Distributed generationDistributed generation
– Zero emission power plantsZero emission power plants
– Storage devicesStorage devices
Development of new sustainable Development of new sustainable
technologies and infrastructuretechnologies and infrastructure
17Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
air air inletinlet
combustion combustion chamberchamber
turbineturbine
compressorcompressor
exhaustexhaust
generatorgenerator
~
generatorgenerator
~
heat heat recovery recovery
steam steam generatgenerat..
steam steam turbineturbine
condensercondenser
pumppump
steamsteam
feed feed waterwater
gasifiergasifier
gas coolinggas cooling
steamsteam
syngas syngas CO/HCO/H22
OO22
coalcoal
water water gas gas
shiftshift
CO2 compressionCO2 compression
acid gas acid gas removal and removal and
cleaningcleaning
Air Air separatseparat. . unitunit
NN22
air air inletinlet
combustion combustion chamberchamber
turbineturbine
compressorcompressor
exhaustexhaust
generatorgenerator
~
generatorgenerator
~
heat heat recovery recovery
steam steam generatgenerat..
steam steam turbineturbine
condensercondenser
pumppump
steamsteam
feed feed waterwater
gasifiergasifier
gas coolinggas cooling
steamsteam
syngas syngas CO/HCO/H22
OO22
coalcoal
water water gas gas
shiftshift
CO2 compressionCO2 compression
acid gas acid gas removal and removal and
cleaningcleaning
Air Air separatseparat. . unitunit
NN22
Cyprus power generation systemCyprus power generation system
Existing and future plansExisting and future plans
18Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
Power generation system statistics (year Power generation system statistics (year
202009)09)
• Small island isolated power systemSmall island isolated power system
• Installed capacityInstalled capacity 1388ΜWe 1388ΜWe
• GenerationGeneration 51 5178G78GWhWh
• Peak load Peak load 1103MWe1103MWe
• Average power generation cost ~9€c/kWhAverage power generation cost ~9€c/kWh19
Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
Cyprus power generation systemCyprus power generation system
Present generation systemPresent generation system
20Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
66xx3030MWe steam turbinesMWe steam turbines
44x37,5MWex37,5MWe gas turbinesgas turbines
66xx6060MWe steam turbinesMWe steam turbines2x50MWe internal2x50MWe internalcombustion enginescombustion engines
3x3x130130MWe MWe steam turbinessteam turbines
11xx220220MWeMWe combined cyclecombined cycle
11x3x388MWeMWe gas turbine gas turbine
Steam turbinesSteam turbines and ICEand ICE::HFOHFO
Gas turbines and Gas turbines and combined cyclecombined cycle::dieseldiesel
11x11MWe internalx11MWe internalcombustion enginescombustion engines
Cyprus power generation systemCyprus power generation system
Projects under developmentProjects under development
• 11x220MWex220MWe combined cycle plant incombined cycle plant in 201 20144
((diesel or natural gasdiesel or natural gas) )
Projects under designProjects under design
• 11x220MWe x220MWe combined cycle plant incombined cycle plant in 201 20199
((natural gasnatural gas))
21Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
Cyprus power generation systemCyprus power generation system
Existing RES-E (2010)Existing RES-E (2010)
22Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
Cyprus power generation systemCyprus power generation system
PVs; 4Biomass; 6
Wind; 82
0
25
50
75
100
Inst
alle
d c
apac
ity
(MW
e)
Cyprus challengesCyprus challenges
RES penetrationRES penetration
23Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
• Short-termShort-term (2010-2020) (2010-2020)
– Switching to natural gasSwitching to natural gas
– Integration of RES-E technologiesIntegration of RES-E technologies
• Mid-term (2020-2030)Mid-term (2020-2030)
– Switching to low carbon energy mixSwitching to low carbon energy mix
• Long-term (2040-2050)Long-term (2040-2050)
– Switching to green hydrogen economySwitching to green hydrogen economy
24Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
Cyprus challengesCyprus challenges
A case study
A strategic plan for the promotion of renewable energy sources in the Cyprus
electricity generation system*
* A study undertaken under the direct supervision of
Cyprus Energy Regulatory Authority (CERA)
25Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
Integration of RES-E technologies
Main objectiveMain objective
• to assess the unavoidable increase in the cost of to assess the unavoidable increase in the cost of
electricity of the Cyprus generation system by the electricity of the Cyprus generation system by the
integration of the necessary RES-E technologies for integration of the necessary RES-E technologies for
Cyprus to achieve its national RES energy targetCyprus to achieve its national RES energy target
26Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
Integration of RES-E technologies
Important factorsImportant factors
• Fuel avoidance costFuel avoidance cost: by increasing RES-E penetration fuel : by increasing RES-E penetration fuel
consumption reducedconsumption reduced
• COCO22 avoidance cost avoidance cost: by increasing RES-E penetration CO: by increasing RES-E penetration CO22
emissions reducedemissions reduced
• Conventional power system operating costConventional power system operating cost: by increasing : by increasing
RES-E penetration the conventional power system operating RES-E penetration the conventional power system operating
cost is increased due to the increased requirements of cost is increased due to the increased requirements of
conventional reserve capacityconventional reserve capacity
27Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
Integration of RES-E technologies
28Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
Op
tim
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on
mod
el (g
en
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Op
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P m
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)im
ple
men
tin
g I
PP
an
d W
AS
P m
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)
CO2 emissions
N
Generate technol. variables
Input data and scenarios
IPP model simulations
Converge?
Viable technologies
ranking
Generate externalities cost
RES fund income scenarios
Converge?
Electricity unit cost, financial indicators (including externalities)
Y
N
Global data and assumptions
Optimum feed-in tariffs
IPP model
Input data and scenarios
Generate generation system
variables
WASP model simulations
Y
Converge? N
WASP model
Candidate RES technologies
CO2 emissions
EAC RES purchase price Optimum
electricity unit cost
Optimum generation system electricity unit cost
Eligible feed-in tariffs
Generation system electricity unit cost (excluding externalities)
Integration of RES-E technologies
0123456789
10111213141516171819202122232425
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Year
Ele
ctri
city
uni
t cos
t (€c
/kW
h)
CSP with thermal storage 6h
PV
Wind
Biomass
29Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
RES-E production cost at IRR=0%RES-E production cost at IRR=0%
Integration of RES-E technologies
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
Incr
ease
in
elec
tric
ity
unit
cos
t (i
n re
al p
rice
s)
(€c/
kWh)
RES penetration (%)
30Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
Integration of RES-E technologies
RES-E penetration cost at IRR=12%RES-E penetration cost at IRR=12%
RES-E RES-E
penetration at penetration at
16% by 202016% by 2020
31Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Inst
alle
d ca
paci
ty (
MW
e)
Year
Wind
PVs
CSP with 6h storage
Biomass
Integration of RES-E technologies
RES-E installed capacity at 16% penetrationRES-E installed capacity at 16% penetration
32Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Ene
rgy
prod
ucti
on (
GW
h)
Year
CSP with 6h storage
Biomass
PVs
Wind
Integration of RES-E technologies
RES-E energy mix at 16% penetrationRES-E energy mix at 16% penetration
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Ene
rgy
prod
ucti
on (
GW
h)
Year
CSP with 6h storage
Biomass
PVs
Wind
New combined cycle plants
Vasilikos combined cycles
Vasilikos gas turbine
Moni gas turbines
Dhekelia ICE
Vasilikos steam plant
Dhekelia steam plant
Moni steam plant
33Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
Integration of RES-E technologies
Power Generation system energy mix with 16% RES-E Power Generation system energy mix with 16% RES-E
penetrationpenetration
A case study
The cost of integration of parabolic trough CSP plants in isolated Mediterranean
power systems
Poullikkas A., Hadjipaschalis I., Kourtis G.Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2009
34Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
The case of CSP technology
Existing systemExisting system
• Technical characteristicsTechnical characteristics
• Economic characteristicsEconomic characteristics
Committed plantsCommitted plants
• Technical characteristicsTechnical characteristics
• Economic characteristicsEconomic characteristics
Unit Technology Fuel type Commissioning year
Retirement year
Moni power station
ST1 Steam turbine HFO ( 1% S ) 1966 2011
ST2 Steam turbine HFO ( 1% S ) 1966 2011
ST3 Steam turbine HFO ( 1% S ) 1968 2011
ST4 Steam turbine HFO ( 1% S ) 1972 2014
ST5 Steam turbine HFO ( 1% S ) 1975 2014
ST6 Steam turbine HFO ( 1% S ) 1975 2014
GT1 Gas turbine Gasoil ( 0,1% S ) 1992 -
GT2 Gas turbine Gasoil ( 0,1% S ) 1992 -
GT3 Gas turbine Gasoil ( 0,1% S ) 1995 -
GT4 Gas turbine Gasoil ( 0,1% S ) 1995 -
Dhekelia power station
ST1 Steam turbine HFO ( 1% S ) 1982 2014
ST2 Steam turbine HFO ( 1% S ) 1983 2014
ST3 Steam turbine HFO ( 1% S ) 1989 2018
ST4 Steam turbine HFO ( 1% S ) 1989 2018
ST5 Steam turbine HFO ( 1% S ) 1993 2022
ST6 Steam turbine HFO ( 1% S ) 1993 2022
ICE1* Internal Combustion Engine Gasoil ( 0,1% S ) 2009 2013
ICE2* Internal Combustion Engine Gasoil ( 0,1% S ) 2010 2013
ICE1* Internal Combustion Engine Natural gas 2013 -
ICE2* Internal Combustion Engine Natural gas 2013 -
Vasilikos power station
ST1 Steam turbine HFO ( 1% S ) 2000 -
ST2 Steam turbine HFO ( 1% S ) 2000 -
ST3 Steam turbine HFO ( 1% S ) 2003 -
GT1 Gas turbine Gasoil ( 0,1% S ) 1999 -
CC1* Combined Cycle Gasoil ( 0,1% S ) 2009 2013
CC1* Combined Cycle Natural gas 2013 -
CC2 Combined Cycle Natural gas 2013 -
CC3 Combined Cycle Natural gas 2013 -
* For the year 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 gasoil will be used as fuel instead of natural gas.
35Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
The case of CSP technology
Candidate scenarios for expansionCandidate scenarios for expansion• Expansion with natural gas combined cycle Expansion with natural gas combined cycle
technologies of 220MWe capacity, (BAU scenario)technologies of 220MWe capacity, (BAU scenario)
• Expansion with one 50MWe parabolic trough CSP plant Expansion with one 50MWe parabolic trough CSP plant
(no thermal storage) in combination with BAU (no thermal storage) in combination with BAU
• Expansion with one 100MWe parabolic trough CSP Expansion with one 100MWe parabolic trough CSP
plant (no thermal storage) in combination with BAUplant (no thermal storage) in combination with BAU
• Expansion with one 50MWe parabolic trough CSP plant Expansion with one 50MWe parabolic trough CSP plant
(10 hours thermal storage) in combination with BAU(10 hours thermal storage) in combination with BAU
• Expansion with one 100MWe parabolic trough CSP Expansion with one 100MWe parabolic trough CSP
plant (10 hours thermal storage) in combination with plant (10 hours thermal storage) in combination with
BAUBAU
• Expansion with parabolic trough CSP technologies of Expansion with parabolic trough CSP technologies of
50MWe capacity, operating hours 24h/day50MWe capacity, operating hours 24h/day36
Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
The case of CSP technology
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1
37Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
WASP IV (Wien Automatic System Planning)WASP IV (Wien Automatic System Planning)
• Find the optimal generation expansion policy for an electric Find the optimal generation expansion policy for an electric
utility system within user-specified constraintsutility system within user-specified constraints
– Bj : Bj : Objective function attached to the expansion plan Objective function attached to the expansion plan jj
– I : I : Capital investment costsCapital investment costs
– S : S : Salvage value of investment costsSalvage value of investment costs
– F : F : Fuel CostsFuel Costs
– M : M : Non-fuel operation and maintenance costsNon-fuel operation and maintenance costs
– Φ :Φ : Cost of energy not served Cost of energy not served
– t : t : time in years (1, 2, …., time in years (1, 2, …., TT))
– T : T : length of the study periodlength of the study period
• Possible constraints: Possible constraints: level of system reliability, annual number level of system reliability, annual number
of new power units, amount of environmental emissions, annual of new power units, amount of environmental emissions, annual
usage of selected fuels, annual energy generation by selected usage of selected fuels, annual energy generation by selected
plantsplants
The case of CSP technology
38Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus
Average generation system electricity unit cost (for Average generation system electricity unit cost (for Cyprus)Cyprus)
The case of CSP technology
7.87
7.89
8.00
7.89
7.12
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
CSP (24h/day operation)
BAU
BAU and 1x50MWe CSP(no storage)
BAU and 1x100MWeCSP (with 10 hours
storage)
BAU and 1x100MWeCSP (no storage)
Electricity unit cost (USc/kWh)
Summary
• Main ingredients of future Main ingredients of future sustainable electric systemssustainable electric systems– Renewable energy sourcesRenewable energy sources
– Distributed generationDistributed generation
– Zero emission power plantsZero emission power plants
– Storage devicesStorage devices
• RES-E : a challenge for CyprusRES-E : a challenge for Cyprus
39Workshop on Co-generation of Electricity and Desalinated Water from CSP, 23rd June 2010, Nicosia, Cyprus