Technical Report- GHG Emissions - Regional District of Central … · 2016-11-15 · Technical...

SUSTAINABILITY SOLUTIONS GROUP 1

Technical Report- GHG EmissionsRegional District of Central Okanagan

Table of Contents

Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 31 Context................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 4

1.1 Planning for future change...................................................................................................................................................................................... 51.2 Community energy planning .................................................................................................................................................................................. 6

2 Regional District of Central Okanagan ................................................................................................................................................................................ 83 The GHG Footprint of RDCO............................................................................................................................................................................................. 10

3.1 Regional District's GHG Inventory......................................................................................................................................................................... 113.2 Municipal GHG Emissions ................................................................................................................................................................................... 133.3 Residential GHG Emissions.................................................................................................................................................................................. 163.4 GHG Emissions from Transportation.................................................................................................................................................................... 17

4 GHG emission reduction goals and objectives................................................................................................................................................................... 215 Identify GHG emissions reduction measures..................................................................................................................................................................... 23

5.1 Municipal OCPs ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 235.2 Other policies and programs................................................................................................................................................................................. 245.3 Common strategies .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 24

6 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 25 7 Glossary........................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 27

October 24, 2011Prepared by: Yuill [email protected]


Executive Summary

The Regional District of Central Okanagan (RDCO) is undertaking a comprehensive review and update of its Regional Growth Strategy(2000) (RGS). The purpose of the RGS is to address issues which cross the boundaries of the constituent municipalities. A recent change to the Local Government Act and Community Charter mandated the inclusion of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions targets in a RGS. As a precursor to a modelling exercise, this report reviews the context for establishing GHG targets in the RDCO and includes several parts including:

The rationale for GHG targets;

A profile of RDCO to review factors which determine the region's GHG emissions;

A review of Community Energy and Emissions Inventory considers the GHG inventory of the RDCO and its constituent municipalities in comparison with the GHG profiles of other regional districts and municipalities in BC;

A review of targets that have been established by other municipalities and regional districts in BC; and

A review of policies and strategies that are being employed to reduce municipal GHG emissions. The Official Community Plans (OCP) and Rural Land Use Bylaw in the RDCO represent a solid foundation for reducing GHG emissions. The policies that they contain support the development of compact, complete communities with active transportation; these types of policies result in low GHG emissions.

There are regions in BC with significantly lower GHG emissions than RDCO and a preliminary analysis shows that transportation emissions are the most significant part of that difference, a variable heavily influenced by land-use planning. Investigating the relationship between land-use planning and transportation in other regions will provide guidance for RDCO's efforts to reduce GHG emissions.

The District of West Kelowna, the District of Lake Country, the District of Peachland, the City of Kelowna, the parts of the Central Okanagan East Electoral Area covered by the Joe Rich Rural Land Use Bylaw, the Rural Westside Official Community Plan and the Ellison Official Community Plan have adopted the provincial GHG target of 33% reduction over 2007 levels by 2020.

The provincial GHG target is an ambitious target given the rate of population increase and we recommend that the modelling exercise be used to explore what is required to achieve that target. Upon completion of the modelling exercise, the elected officials will be in a position to evaluate potential GHG emission reduction targets and to identify an appropriate GHG emissions target for the region as a whole.


1 Context

The earth's climate is determined by the ability of the atmosphere to trap heat from the sun, much like glass in a greenhouse. The term climate change, referring to a change in the average state of the climate, has replaced the term global warming in recognition of the variable weather impacts associated with a warming trend. There are noticeable highs and lows in year to year data, but over longer periods of time there is a discernible warming trend across the globe. The global average temperature over the first decade of the 21st century was significantly warmer than any preceding decade in the instrumental record, stretching back over 160 years1. The overwhelming majority of scientists agree that this is due to rising concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere caused by human activities.

The impacts of climate change are becoming more apparent. One particularly striking paper in the journal Science (August, 2011), reported that 2,000 species are moving away from the equator at an average rate of more than 15 feet per day to avoid increasing temperatures, a rate two to three times faster than previously reported2. The impacts of weather events on the built environment are another indicator, particularly relevant to municipalities. Munich Re, one of the large re-insurance companies, reported that 2010 brought the second-highest number, after 2007, of loss-related weather catastrophes since their records began in 19803. There are a range of climate change impacts that are particularly relevant to RDCO. The pine beetle infestation has affected to some degree 17.5 million hectares in BC, the result of warmer winters and heat-stressed trees4. In BC, forest fire records show that the wildfire season has been increasing in length by one to two days a year since at least 19805. Lightning caused fires are projected to increase globally by 44% by 21006. In the Southern Interior of BC temperatures are predicted to increase by 2.5ºC by 2050 over 2010 levels and while overall precipitation is projected to increase by 5%, summer precipitation may be reduced between 15% and 20%7. The District of Lake Country identifies other impacts in its OCP that are applicable to the Region including an increase in demand for irrigation and domestic water, a decrease in annual snow pack leading to less water in the summer, difficulties for Kokanee salmon, trout and other fish and an increase in demand for power needed for air conditioning in the summer.

Legislators in California, Washington and BC have passed laws requiring municipal plans to include GHG emissions targets. This effort reflects a growing understanding of the relationship between the design of community settlements, energy consumption and GHG emissions. Urban form has a determining

1 Hadley Centre (2011). Evidence: the state of the climate. UK Met Office. Available at: http :// www . metoffice . gov . uk / media / pdf / m /6/ evidence . pdf 2 Chen et al. (2011). Rapid Range Shifts of Species Associated with High Levels of Climate Warming. Science 19 August 2011: 1024-1026.3 Munich Re (2011). Topics Geo. Natural catastrophes 2010- analyses, assessments, positions. Available at: http://www.munichre.com/publications/302-

06735_en.pdf4 Information on the pine beetle is available here: http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hfp/mountain_pine_beetle/facts.htm5 BC Ministry of Forests and Range Wildfire Management Branch (2009).. Climate change and fire management research strategy. Available at:

http://bcwildfire.ca/weather/Climate/docs/Climate%20change%20forum%20report_final.pdf6 Bruce, J (2011). Climate change information for adaptation. Climate trends and projected values for Canada from 2010 to 2050. Published by Institute for

Catastrophic Loss Reduction. 7 Ibid.


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/m/6/evidence.pdf

http://bcwildfire.ca/weather/Climate/docs/Climate%20change%20forum%20report_final.pdf

http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hfp/mountain_pine_beetle/facts.htm



















influence on many sources of GHG emissions because density and land use patterns affect distances travelled, modes of travel, building typology, possibilities for community energy systems and carbon cycling. Land-use decisions result in durable infrastructure and therefore should be prioritized in efforts to reduce energy consumption and GHG emissions, above transportation management, site and building design and energy supply.

In May 2008, the "Green Communities" legislation (Bill 27) amended the Local Government Act and Community Charter. Under the amendment, local and regional governments are required to adopt GHG emission reduction targets, and actions and policies for achieving those targets.

1.1 Planning for future change

Sustainability Solutions Group (SSG) was hired by the RDCO to evaluate the greenhouse gas emissions implication for the Regional Growth Strategy. SSG has developed an open source model that facilitates the analysis of land-use scenarios called GHGProof. SSG has worked with more than ten municipalities and regions in BC to model their land use decisions.

Contemporary land-use decisions have a cascading effect over a multitude of subsequent decisions. They determine transportation patterns, building design, public infrastructure and energy supply systems for fifty to hundreds of years into the future. For example, the long distances and distributed destinations associated with sprawl creates a dependence on personal automobiles. It is very costly for public transit to service dwellings spread out over a large area. This effect is known as path dependence- one decision has a significant influence on future decision. For example, the decision to allow sprawl means that transit may not be viable. Once a major investment in buildings and infrastructure is made, it is difficult to back away from that investment despite ongoing disadvantages8. Alternatively, designing for compact, complete communities enhances future opportunities. For example, the density associated with compact communities increases the feasibility of potential district energy systems or new transit routes.

A second consideration relates to scarce financial resources. Land-use decisions that result in energy intensive neighbourhoods constrict society's ability to fund the transformation to low carbon communities in two ways. Firstly they increase the costs of mitigation and adaptation due to the re-configuration of public and private infrastructure that is required. Secondly, higher energy costs and stranded capital investments reduce the availability of funds to finance the transformation. In recognition of this, Jaccard et al. proposed a hierarchy of importance for community energy planning based on the simple concept that whatever lasts longest is most important9.

8 Liebowitz, S., & Margolis, S. (2009). Path Dependence, Lock-in and History. Journal of Law, Economics and Organisation, 11(1), 205-226.9 Jaccard, M., Failing, L., & Berry, T. (1997). From equipment to infrastructure: community energy management and greenhouse gas emission reduction.

Energy Policy, 25(13), 1065-1074.


1.2 Community energy planning

As Figure 1 illustrates, the most critical element of community energy planning is land-use planning. Land-use planning determines the long-term characteristics of a community, such as the way in which people move around and the types of dwellings that are constructed. Thoughtful land-use planning not only reduces GHG emissions now but also lays the framework for significant reductions into the future. Land-use planning that reduces GHG emissions also improves health outcomes, facilitates district energy systems, is more affordable for community members by reducing household energy costs and improves quality of life. It is a win-win-win solution.

Reducing household costs

SSG has analyzed potential household savings for land-use scenarios that achieve municipal GHG targets in BC using GHGProof. Without accounting for inflation or fuel price increases, a land-use scenario that achieved the Capital Regional District (CRD)'s 33% reduction over 2007 levels by 2020 would result in $277 million savings in household fuel and gasoline costs. On average, a household in the CRD would save $1,468 per year10. This result is calculated by modelling vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) for each household in the land-use scenario. The total VKT is divided by the average fuel efficiency of vehicles in the region to identify total fuel volume. The cost of the total fuel volume is calculated and divided by the number of households for each of the land-use scenarios. A similar approach is applied to household heating and cooling costs which are calculated according to the energy intensity of dwelling types and the mix of dwelling types in each of the scenarios. Other in-direct savings also occur, such as reduced commuting time.

10 BC Hydro forecasts essentially a doubling of electricity prices by 2020. BC Hydro Directive 17, 2006 IEP/LTAP Long Term Rate Increase Forecast filed with BC Utilities Commission.


Figure 1: Community Energy Planning FrameworkSource: Jaccard et al. (1997)

Reducing municipal costs

Municipal costs are significantly lower in a community with low GHG emissions than one with high GHG emissions. A study by the IBI Group for the City of Calgary compared a scenario of growth that reflects current patterns and policies (dispersed scenario) with a scenario that intensifies population and jobs in existing areas (recommended scenario)11. IBI found that the dispersed scenario would cost 33% more to build than the recommended scenario with additional savings for operations and maintenance. Water and wastewater systems alone would be 55% cheaper in the recommended scenario. Other savings would be found in road construction, transit costs, fire stations, recreation centres and schools.

Improving health outcomes

Land-use planning which reduces GHG emissions will also improve public health outcomes by supporting higher levels of physical activity, increased public transit, improved traffic safety, reduced overall air pollution, reduced noise pollution, enhanced social interactions and improved mental health outcomes. Health conditions which can be positively influenced by land use planning include heart disease, hypertension, stroke, diabetes, obesity, osteoporosis and depression12.

Building a green economy

The idea of a green economy has grown in prominence as a solution to both the economic slowdown and environmental challenges. The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) defines the Green Economy as “a system of economic activities related to the production, distribution and consumption of goods and services that result in improved human well-being over the long term, while not exposing future generations to significant environmental risks and ecological scarcities”13. A report by UNEP estimated that 2.3 million people are employed in jobs related to renewable energy worldwide14. A study in British Columbia assigned 10.2% of the Province’s GDP or $15.3 billion dollars, to the green economy, accounting for 166,000 jobs15. Efforts to reduce GHG emissions stimulate innovation in renewable energy development, manufacturing and installation, energy efficiency retrofits, green building, energy efficient technologies, local agriculture activities, new infrastructure for public transit and cycling, amongst others.

11 IBI Group (2009). The implications of alternative growth patterns on infrastructure costs. Prepared for the City of Calgary. 12 Frank, L., Kavage, S., and Litman, T. (2008). Promoting public health through Smart Growth. Prepared for Smart Growth BC. Available at:

http://www.smartgrowth.bc.ca/Portals/0/Downloads/SGBC_Health_Report_FINAL.pdf13 UNEP (2008). Green jobs: towards decent work in a sustainable, low-carbon world. Produced by Worldwatch Institute. Available at:

http :// www . unep . org / labour _ environment / PDFs / Greenjobs / UNEP - Green - Jobs - Report . pdf 14 Ibid15 Globe Foundation (2010). British Columbia’s Green Economy. Building a strong low carbon future. Available at:

http :// www . globe . ca / media /3887/ bcge _ report _ feb _2010. pdf


http://www.globe.ca/media/3887/bcge_report_feb_2010.pdf

















http://www.unep.org/labour_environment/PDFs/Greenjobs/UNEP-Green-Jobs-Report.pdf

























http://www.smartgrowth.bc.ca/Portals/0/Downloads/SGBC_Health_Report_FINAL.pdf

2 Regional District of Central Okanagan

Population is a major driver in GHG emissions, and while population increases result in corresponding GHG increases, there is also an opportunity to redirect that growth to increase transit feasibility, walkability, and the feasibility of district energy systems. RDCO's population is projected to continue increasing from 184,411 in 2006 to 266,217 in 2036, a population increase of 40% (Figure 2).


2006 2009 2016 2026 20360

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Figure 2: Total Population- RDCO (2006-2036)

Population

Figure 3 illustrates projected populations for the regional districts in BC. RDCO (shaded blue) has the fourth largest population in BC after Metro Vancouver, CRD and Fraser Valley. As is illustrated from the shading, after the six largest municipalities, the remaining regional districts have much smaller populations. Population increases are projected for the larger regional districts in BC, with the largest population increase in Metro Vancouver.

Figure 3: Population Projections for BC Regional Districts Source: BC Stats

Note: Total Population in BC in 2006 was 4.134 million.


2006 2009 2016 2026 20360

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000 Metro VancouverCapitalFraser ValleyCentral OkanaganNanaimoThompson-NicolaFraser-Fort GeorgeOkanagan-SimilkameenNorth OkanaganCowichan ValleyCaribooComox ValleyPeace RiverEast KootenayCentral KootenayColumbia-ShuswapStrathconaKitimat-StikineSquamish-LillooetBulkley-NechakoKootenay-BoundaryAlberni-ClayoquotSunshine CoastPowell RiverSkeena-Queen CharlotteMount WaddingtonCentral CoastStikine

Regional Districts

3


StikineCentral Coast

Mount WaddingtonPowell River

Skeena-Queen CharlotteSunshine Coast

Alberni-ClayoquotKootenay-Boundary

StrathconaKitimat-StikineComox Valley

Bulkley-NechakoCentral KootenayCowichan Valley

Columbia-ShuswapEast Kootenay

CaribooOkanagan-Similkameen

North OkanaganSquamish-Lillooet

NanaimoPeace River

Fraser-Fort GeorgeThompson-NicolaCentral Okanagan

CapitalFraser Valley

Metro Vancouver

0 5000000 10000000 15000000

562366617390

1181994

10064534

Figure 4: 2007 Total GHG EmissionsSource: 2007 CEEI

tCO2e

CapitalMetro Vancouver

Central CoastNanaimo

Cowichan ValleyComox Valley

Powell RiverSunshine Coast

Skeena-Queen CharlotteStrathcona

Central OkanaganOkanagan-Similkameen

Mount WaddingtonFraser Valley

Alberni-ClayoquotCentral Kootenay

Kitimat-StikineNorth Okanagan

Kootenay-BoundaryThompson-Nicola

East KootenayCariboo

Fraser-Fort GeorgeBulkley-Nechako

Columbia-ShuswapStikine

Peace RiverSquamish-Lillooet

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

3.94.3

6.46.7

7.4

Figure 5: 2007 Total Per Capita GHG EmissionsSource: 2007 CEEI

tCO2e/capita

Regional Districts Regional Districts

4 The GHG Footprint of RDCO

3.1 Regional District's GHG Inventory

A review of RDCO's GHG footprint was completed using data from the Community Energy and Emissions Inventory (CEEI)16. Note that the scope of this comparison includes GHG emissions from residential and commercial buildings, private and commercial transportation and solid waste. The CEEI totals do not include GHG emissions from agriculture, deforestation17, liquid waste, industry, agricultural transportation or air travel. CEEI uses actual data from energy utilities for buildings but estimates GHG emissions from vehicles and solid waste. Vehicle emissions are estimated using vehicle registrations and a model developed by Pacific Analytics for the BC Government calibrated using Air Care mileage readings from the Lower Mainland . It is not known how accurate these estimates are.

We compared GHG results from RDCO against results from other regional districts. Investigating the differences between Regional Districts can reveal opportunities for reducing GHG emissions. Figure 4 is a chart of total GHG emissions for each regional district; RDCO has the 4th largest GHG total in the province at 1.2 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) in 2007. In comparison, Metro Vancouver produced 10 million tCO2e and Stikine Regional District was approximately 10,000 tCO2e. On a per capita basis, RDCO has the 11th lowest GHG emissions in the province at 6.4 tCO2e (Figure 5). RDCO is below the orange line which represents the median result18. Note that none of the Regional District totals include emissions from First Nations communities.

The per capita numbers facilitate the comparison between municipalities of different population sizes and can help illustrate the kind of GHG reductions that are possible. For example, if RDCO were to adopt the provincial target of 33% reduction on a per capita basis, per capita GHGs would have to fall from 6.4 tCO2e to to 4.2 tCO2e by 2030. In order to understand what 4.2 tCO2e actually means we can look for other regional districts that are already at that level of emissions. CRD's GHG emissions represent the only regional district in the Province below 4.2 tCO2e/capita (3.9 tCO2e/capita) and we can therefore look to transportation behaviour in CRD to understand what needs to happen in order for RDCO to achieve its target.

16 The first edition of the 2007 Community Energy and Emissions data was used as SSG's provincial database was compiled prior to the release of the second edition of the 2007 CEEI.

17 GHG emissions from deforestation and agriculture are provided for information only as memo items and are not counted in the total emissions in CEEIs for regional districts. The Government of BC indicates that this information should not be used for decision-making purposes.

18 Per capita emissions were calculated by dividing the CEEI data by the 2009 population provided by BC Stats.


A major difference between CRD and RDCO is climate; it is tempting to attribute the difference in per capita emissions (RDCO is 6.4 tCO2e vs CRD at 3.9 tCO2e) to the colder climate experienced in the RDCO. However, this is not the case because climate influences energy consumption associated with buildings; if the climate is colder, the demand for heat increases. In BC, because a significant portion of the heat is generated using hydro which produces very little GHG emissions, the impact of climate becomes relatively small on the overall per capita GHG emissions. Figure 6 demonstrates that, in fact, the difference in per capita GHG emissions is the result of lower emissions associated with transportation in the CRD than the RDCO. This finding indicates that if RDCO can achieve by 2030 mode shares and trip lengths comparable to those currently experienced in CRD, the RDCO will be well-positioned to achieve a 33% per capita reduction over 2007 levels. Both trip lengths and mode shares are determined by land-use planning; if destinations are further apart trip lengths are longer.


CRD RDCO0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Figure 6: Comparison of CRD and RDCO- 2007 Per Capita GHG EmissionsSource: CEEI

Solid waste

Commercial transportation

Private transportation

Commercial buildings

Residential buildingstCO

2e

3.2 Municipal GHG Emissions

The four municipalities in RDCO for which we have GHG data are relatively similar ranging from 6 tCO2e/capita (Lake Country) to 7.3 tCO2e/capita (West Kelowna)19. Per capita GHG emissions in BC range from 2.6 tCO2e/capita (Sooke and Oak Bay) to more than 24 tCO2e/capita (Revelstoke and Whistler) (Figure 7). This variation from municipality to municipality is the result of a number of variables which are described in the table below.

Variable Influence

Climate Colder = increased heating load

Average house size Bigger = more space to heat and cool

Average house type Apartments use less energy than detached houses due to shared walls

Source of heating energy Oil and natural gas = more GHG emissions than electricity

Built environment More sprawl = more driving

Commercial activity More commercial activity = more commercial emissions

Average fuel efficiency Bigger vehicles = more fuel consumption

19 Data is available for un-incorporated areas in CEEI but is not yet consistent. In the unincorporated areas of RDCO, per capita GHG emissions from the CEEI were 2.5t CO2e, which is unreasonably low. As an indication of this weakness, the CEEI data covers 16,200 dwellings but only 9,700 private vehicles, half of the provincial average of just over one car per household.


BC Min.

Lake Country

Peachland

Kelowna

West Kelowna

BC Max.

0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00

Figure 7: 2007 Per capita GHG emissions by Municipality Source 2007 CEEI Revised

tCO2e

Figure 8 explores the differences in per capita GHG emissions between RDCO's municipalities. Of the four municipalities, West Kelowna has the highest per capita GHG emissions in transportation, solid waste and residential buildings, but it has the second lowest in commercial buildings. Lake Country's solid waste emissions are one quarter of those from Kelowna or West Kelowna. Kelowna has the lowest emissions from private transportation and residential buildings but its role as a commercial centre is evidenced by higher emissions from commercial transportation and buildings.


Lake Country RDCO Peachland Kelowna West Kelowna012345678

Figure 8: 2007 Per Capita GHG Emissions by Emissions SourceSource: 2007 CEEI Revised

Residential buildings

Commercial buildings

Commercial vehicles

Private vehicles

Solid wastetCO2e

3.3 Residential GHG Emissions

Per capita residential emissions are low in RDCO relative to other regional districts in the province (Figure 9). With the exception of Okanagan Similkameen, all of the regional districts with per capita GHG emissions lower than those of the RDCO are on the coast. Additionally RDCO has lower per capita GHG emissions than the Fraser Valley Regional District and Metro Vancouver. Per capita residential emissions in the RDCO are significantly below the median (orange line) which may be the result of lower than average heating requirements, a relatively higher use of hydro electricity proportionate to natural gas for heating or some combination of the above.


Cowichan ValleyCapital

Squamish-LillooetNanaimo

Comox ValleySunshine Coast

Okanagan-SimilkameenCentral Coast

StrathconaSkeena-Queen Charlotte

Alberni-ClayoquotCentral OkanaganMetro VancouverThompson-Nicola

Fraser ValleyColumbia-ShuswapMount Waddington

North OkanaganPowell River

Bulkley-NechakoCariboo

Fraser-Fort GeorgeKitimat-Stikine

Central KootenayEast Kootenay

Kootenay-BoundaryPeace River

Stikine

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

Figure 9: 2007 Residential Per Captia GHG EmissionsSource: CEEI

tCO2e/capita

Regional Districts

3.4 GHG Emissions from Transportation

The chart for private vehicle per capita GHG emissions (Figure 10) illustrates that RDCO's per capita GHG emissions are relatively high in comparison with other regional districts. Private vehicle emissions in CRD and Metro Vancouver are slightly over half of the per capita total in RDCO, indicating that there is potential for reductions in RDCO. However, RDCO's challenge mirrors the challenge faced by twenty other regional districts which have comparable per capita vehicular emissions to those of RDCO.

VKT per household was calculated from CEEI data to provide further clarity on the transportation-related emissions. Figure 11 shows VKT for all of the municipalities in BC and the relative position of the RDCO municipalities. West Kelowna and Peachland are slightly above the municipal median whereas Kelowna and Lake Country are below the median. The inset chart on Figure 11 compares the RDCO municipalities against each other. While this chart illustrates RDCO municipalities are in the middle of the pack, there are others with significantly lower VKT (Silverton, New Westminister, Vancouver, Wells and Esquimalt all have VKT of under 20,000km, for example) than the those in the RDCO. Identifying the factors which result in a lower VKT in other communities can help municipalities in the RDCO identify strategies to reduce their VKT and could be a useful subject for further study.

Figures 12, 13 and 14 use 2006 Census data to analyse mode share for commuting. RDCO has one of the lowest percentages of any regional districts for walking at 4.5% of trips but cycling is relatively high in comparison with other regional districts at 2.8%. Transit trips are also low for urbanised regional districts. These charts illustrate there is significant opportunity for mode shifting to active transportation and public transit.



Central CoastSkeena-Queen Charlotte

Fraser ValleyNanaimo

Comox ValleyKitimat-Stikine

Central OkanaganMount Waddington

Okanagan-SimilkameenSunshine Coast

Powell RiverAlberni-ClayoquotCowichan Valley

Squamish-LillooetStrathcona

Central KootenayKootenay-Boundary

North OkanaganThompson-Nicola

Columbia-ShuswapFraser-Fort George

East KootenayBulkley-Nechako

CaribooStikine

Peace River

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

Figure 10: 2007 Private Vehicle Per Capita GHG Emissions

Source: CEEI

tCO2e/capita

Regional Districts


Kelowna

Lake Country

PeachlandW

est Kelowna

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

2007 VKT by Municipalitykm

KelownaLake Country

PeachlandWest Kelowna

30000 32000 34000 36000 38000 40000 42000

Figure 11: 2007 Annual VKT per householdSource: CEEI, with calculations

Total KM


Comox ValleyStrathcona

Bulkley-NechakoMount WaddingtonColumbia-Shuswap

Peace RiverNorth Okanagan


Alberni-ClayoquotCentral Coast

Cowichan ValleyKitimat-StikineEast Kootenay

Kootenay-BoundaryCentral Kootenay

Fraser ValleyPowell River

Fraser-Fort GeorgeStikine

NanaimoCentral Okanagan

Skeena-Queen CharlotteThompson-Nicola

Sunshine CoastSquamish-Lillooet


0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00%

Figure 13: 2006 Commuting Trips by BicycleSource: 2006 Census

% of trips


Fraser ValleyCentral Okanagan

CaribooThompson-Nicola

Fraser-Fort GeorgeMetro VancouverCowichan Valley

NanaimoNorth Okanagan

Powell RiverSunshine Coast

Peace RiverKootenay-Boundary

East KootenayColumbia-Shuswap

Squamish-LillooetBulkley-Nechako

Okanagan-SimilkameenCapital

Alberni-ClayoquotKitimat-Stikine

Central KootenayMount Waddington

Skeena-Queen CharlotteStikine

Central Coast

0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00%

Figure 12: 2006 Commuting Trips by WalkingSource: 2006 Census

% of trips

Regional Districts Regional Districts



Bulkley-NechakoMount WaddingtonColumbia-Shuswap

Peace RiverNorth Okanagan


Alberni-ClayoquotCentral Coast

Cowichan ValleyKitimat-StikineEast Kootenay

Kootenay-BoundaryCentral Kootenay

Fraser ValleyPowell River

Fraser-Fort GeorgeStikine

NanaimoCentral Okanagan

Skeena-Queen CharlotteThompson-Nicola

Sunshine CoastSquamish-Lillooet


0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00%

Figure 14: 2006 Commuting Trips by TransitSource: 2006 Census

% of trips

Regional Districts

5 GHG emission reduction goals and objectives

In May 2008, the "Green Communities" legislation (Bill 27) amended the Local Government Act and Community Charter. Under the amendment, local and regional governments are required to adopt GHG emission reduction targets, and actions and policies for achieving those targets. The provincial legislation does not mandate a particular target, many municipalities have adopted the provincial target of 33% reduction below 2007 levels by 2020. Our work indicates that this is an extremely ambitious target, particularly for municipalities that are experiencing population growth.

There are two methods for establishing a target and strategy. The first approach employs backcasting in which a target is set based on external conditions to the municipality, such as provincial or federal policy, guidance from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change or other sources. Once this target is established, it is possible to work backwards to identify strategies which will achieve that target. The second method employs forecasting, in which potential strategies are identified, their GHG reduction potential is calculated and the sum of the reductions becomes the target.

Other municipalities have hired a consultant and conducted their own analysis using forecasting. They have identified targets ranging from a 5% reduction over 2007 levels to 15% reductions. GHG targets from other regional districts, constituent municipalities and surrounding municipalities are identified in Figure 15.

In addition to Bill 27, the Green Communities Act, the BC Government also passed Bill 44 which mandates the broader public sector to be carbon neutral in its operations by 2012. In addition to provincial government agencies, this bill applies to school districts, universities, colleges, and health authorities including UBC Okanagan, Okanagan College, School District 23 and Interior Health Authority. This requirement creates the opportunity for municipalities and the RDCO to work with other public sector institutions on GHG reduction strategies.

The four municipalities in the RDCO, Ellison Official Community Plan, the parts of the Central Okanagan East Electoral Area covered by the Joe Rich Rural Land Use Bylaw and the Rural Westside Official Community Plan have incorporated the provincial target into their OCPs. Given this, it is recommended that modelling focus on identifying what would be required to achieve the 33% reduction by 2020 over 2007 levels in the RDCO as a whole.


6 Identify GHG emissions reduction measures

5.1 Municipal OCPs

A review of the OCPs in RDCO municipalities indicates that all of them support low carbon communities through a variety of their policies. These policies cover a variety of areas including land-use planning, transportation, green spaces, waste management, biodiversity protection and affordable housing. Examples of the policies and their impacts on GHG emissions are described in the table below. The breadth of policies demonstrates that managing for GHG emissions is a cross-cutting effort with implications throughout the business of a municipal government.

Examples of policies Impact

Increase density of housing Shorten trip length, increase feasibility of public transit, walking and cycling, reduce energy costs per dwelling due to shared walls.

Increase affordable housing through secondary suites Shorten trip length, increase feasibility of public transit, walking and cycling, reduce energy costs per dwelling due to shared walls.

Enhance the central business district Increase the feasibility of walking, cycling and public transit.

Increase non-vehicular mode-share Reduced single occupancy vehicle travel.

Promote walking and cycling Reduced single occupancy vehicle travel.

Promote public transit Reduced single occupancy vehicle travel.

Preserve farmland Increased local food production, reduced transporation associated with food

Preserve or increase greenspace Increased storage of carbon in biomass

Protect biodiversity Increased storage of carbon in biomass

Waste reduction (composing, recycling) Reduced emissions from the landfill


5.2 Other policies and programs

In addition to the Green Communities Act, the BC Government has implemented a number of initiatives and policies to reduce GHG emissions. The potential contribution of these laws and policies will be evaluated in the GHG modelling exercise.

The Climate Action Charter was signed by the provincial governments and municipalities in 2007. It is a voluntary commitment to measure and report on GHG emissions, become carbon neutral in local government operations by 2012 and create complete, compact and energy efficient communities.

Bill 44 established province-wide GHG targets of 33% below 2007 levels by 2020 and 80% below 2007 levels by 2080 as well as mandating that all public sector organisations including school districts, health authorities and post secondary institutions will be carbon neutral by 2012.

BC Building Code (2011) will require energy performance equivalent to EnerGuide 80 in 2011, solar hot water ready homes, high efficiency toilets and other measures.

Renewable and Low Carbon Fuel Requirements Regulation requires a 10% reduction in carbon intensity of fuel by 2020.

The Vehicle Emissions Standards Act will cut GHG emissions by 30% relative to current vehicle models by 2016. The Act also enables the regulation of zero emission vehicles.

The BC Energy Plan (2008) requires that all new electricity projects in BC will have zero net GHG emissions, existing thermal stations will reach zero net GHG emissions by 2016, 50% of BC Hydro's incremental resource needs will be met through conservation by 2020 and new energy efficiency standards will be determined and implemented for buildings by 2010.

LiveSmart BC provides incentives for home energy assessments, and energy efficiency technologies in small businesses.

BC Hydro's PowerSmart has information and incentive programs for homes and businesses to reduce electricity consumption.

BC's revenue neutral carbon tax is designed to disincentive use of fossil fuels and will increase over time.

Pacific Carbon Trust sells GHG offsets and buys GHG reductions from business and organizations.

There are no relevant policies at the federal government level.

5.3 Common strategies

Implementation of community energy plans is in its infancy in BC and in Canada. The following illustration summarises many of the strategies that are being implemented in different contexts and to different degrees.



There is a compelling case to reduce community GHG emissions both to tackle global climate change, with its increasingly localised impacts, and to realise synergistic health, quality of life, and economic benefits. In comparison with the rest of the province, RDCO's per capita GHG emissions are lower than the average but there is significant scope for reductions, particularly in the transportation sector. Land-use planning that places dwellings in close proximity to key destinations such as employment and commercial centres will support a mode shift out of cars to walking and cycling.

A range of new provincial policies relating to buildings and transportation will have an influence going forward; however they will not have a significant influence over the existing stock of buildings and vehicles.

The GHG target of 33% reduction by 2020 over 2007 levels that the RDCO and member municipalities have adopted will, in our opinion, be extremely difficult to achieve, particularly given the projected population increases in the region. The target will require significant changes in land-use planning and technologies for transportation and heating and cooling buildings. Since the RDCO and member municipalities have adopted this target, SSG will initially focus the modelling on what will be required to achieve this target.


7 Glossary

Bill 27, the Green Communities Act- a revision to the local government statutes act which mandates the inclusion of a GHG target.

CEEI- Community Energy and Emissions Inventory, an initiative of the BC Government to quantify community GHG emissions on an ongoing basis.

Climate Action Charter- a voluntary commitment to achieve carbon neutrality by 2012 signed by municipalities in BC.

District energy- technology for providing heating (and possibly other forms of energy) from a central plant to multiple users.

GHG- Greenhouse gas emissions

GWh- 1,000,000 kWh

OCP- Official Community Plan

Offset- a reduction in emissions of carbon dioxide or greenhouse gases made in order to compensate for or to offset an emission made elsewhere.

tCO2e- Tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, and millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. This is the metric measurement unit for greenhouse emissions. The global warming impact of all greenhouse gases is measured in terms of equivalency to the impact of carbon dioxide (CO2).

VKT- Vehicle kilometres travelled.



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Technical Report- GHG Emissions - Regional District of Central … · 2016-11-15 · Technical...

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