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1
Technology Roles in an Ecosystem Model of Technology Evolution
Third Intelligent Storage Workshop
May 5th, 2005
Gediminas AdomaviciusJesse C. Bockstedt
Alok GuptaRobert J. Kauffman
Motivation
> The current environment of business related technologies is extremely complex and dynamic.
> Forecasting for technological evolution is difficult.
> Current analytical models for technology evolution are complicated and incomplete.
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Problem
> Explain the evolution of a technology and account for complex system of factors that influences its development
> Model related technologies and their evolution with respect to the analysis of the evolution of a given technology
> Provide insight for technology development decision making and forecasting purposes
Population Perspective
x
xxxx
xx
xxx
xx
xx
xx
xx
x
x
xxx
xx
Characteristic SpaceStorage Capacity
Command Processing Time
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Hierarchical Model
PersonalDigital
Photography
DigitalCamera
PhotoPrinter
DriveMotor
PrintHead
InkCartridge
ColorLCD
CMOSSensor
System of Use
Products
Components
Ecosystem View
> Population of technologies with specific roles
> Relationships between technologies
> A set of resources (firms)
> External environmental forces
4
Ecosystem View
Roles of Technologies in an Ecosystem
> Component Role
> Product and Application Role
> Support and Infrastructure Role
5
Specific Ecosystem View
Disk-DriveMP3Player
Step 1
Solid-state MP3Player
Step 2
Compact DiscPlayer
Step 2
Color LCD
Step 3
HardDisk Drive
Step 3
Flash Memory Drive
Step 3
Laser Lens
Step 3
SD Flash Memory Cards
Step 4Online Digital Music Retailer
Step 4
Compact Discs
Step 4Support andInfrastructure Layer
Product and Application Layer
Component Layer
Temporal Aspect of Technology Ecosystem
Components
Products / Applications
Support / Infrastructure
802.11 Standard
Wireless Hotspots
802.11a Components
802.11b Components
1st
Generation Wi-Fi
Devices
2nd
Generation Wi-Fi
Devices
3nd
Generation Wi-Fi
Devices
Wireless Hotspot Growth
Wireless Encryption
and Security
802.11g Components
802.11b Integrated Wireless
WiMAXComponents
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Temporal Aspect
Future state of the technology
ecosystem
Present state of the
technology ecosystem
C P* C I*
P I*P P*
I I*
P C*
I C* I P*
Component Innovation
Product/Application Innovation
Support/Infrastructure Innovation
C C*
P P*
I I*
C C*
Overview of Individual Paths of Influence
Support EvolutionExamples: growth of mobile cellular phone network, Internet 2.0
Infrastructure-Leveraging Product Development
Examples: instant messaging services, picture mail
Infrastructure-DrivenComponent Development
Examples: Internet technologies, 802.11g Wi-Fi equipment
Infrastructure Present State
Diffusion and AdoptionExamples: digital camera infrastructure, software applications designed for Windows OS
Product Integration and EvolutionExamples: camera phones, Wi-Fi enabled PDAs
Product-Driven Component Development
Examples: Blue-ray DVD, Digital Encryption Technology
Product Present State
Standards and Infra-structure Development
Examples: XML, RFID
Design and CompilationExamples: digital camera, MP3 players, PCs
Component EvolutionExamples: microprocessors and Moore's Law, digital camera mega- pixels.
Component Present State
InfrastructureFuture State
ProductFuture State
Component Future State
Infrastructure-Oriented
Paths of Influence
Product-OrientedPaths of Influence
Component-OrientedPaths of Influence
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Paths of Influence Conceptual Model
Intelligent Storage Case Study
EthernetEnterprise storage systems (RAID, SAN, NAS, object-based)Internet and database connectivityCommunication protocols (HTTP, FTP, TCP/IP)File systems (NFS, CFIS, OSD file systems)
Infrastructure/Support (Layer C)
Personal computers / laptopsServersPersonal devices (MP3 players, digital cameras, PDAs, personal
video recorders)
Product/Application (Layer B)
Hard disk drivesTape-based storageOptical storage (DVD, CD)Solid-state storage (RAM, flash) Computer interfaces (serial, parallel, IEEE 1394 Firewire, USB,
SCSI, PCMIA, ATA, Fiber Channel)
Component (Layer A)
TechnologiesLayer
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Intelligent Storage Case Study
> Storage components evolve to support intelligence and object-based storage (C C*)
> “Smart” personal media devices that utilize attribute based storage techniques (C P*, P P*)
> Intelligent storage technologies for maintainability, recovery, and network and system performance (I C*, I P*)
Intelligent Storage Case Study
Identify patterns of innovation in the ecosystem
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Continuing Research
> External drivers and environmental forces
> Firm level of analysis
> Resources
> Algorithms and analytical models using ecosystem concepts.
Summary
> Take a system-view of technology evolution: > Individual technologies do not evolve in isolation> The ecosystem around a technology impacts its evolution
> Importance of domain knowledge
> Ecosystem model provides necessary structure for analyzing technology evolution