The Appeasement CrisisThe Appeasement Crisis

Ionia Workshop 2011Ionia Workshop 2011Gary Armstrong, Ph.D.Gary Armstrong, Ph.D.William Jewell CollegeWilliam Jewell College

What is Appeasement?What is Appeasement?

A state makes concessions either 1) to A state makes concessions either 1) to avoid war or 2) to postpone war until it’s in avoid war or 2) to postpone war until it’s in a better position to fighta better position to fight

Key Successful Case: 1895 GB and US Key Successful Case: 1895 GB and US over Venezuelaover Venezuela

1922: Rapollo1922: Rapollo

German CW Staff in Soviet Union 1928Von Seeckt

1923: France 1923: France Occupies RuhrOccupies Ruhr

The World CrisisThe World Crisis

“Fascism”

“Totalitarianism”

Fate of DemocracyFate of DemocracyDemocraticDemocratic DemocraticDemocratic

StateState FoundingFounding Regime Falls Regime FallsItalyItaly 19251925GermanyGermany 19191919 19331933CzechoslovakiaCzechoslovakia 19181918 1938*1938*PolandPoland 19191919 19261926AustriaAustria 19201920 19331933HungaryHungary 1920*1920* 19321932EstoniaEstonia 19181918 19341934LatviaLatvia 19201920 19341934

Locarno Treaty 1925Locarno Treaty 1925

Actually 7 TreatiesActually 7 Treaties Germany accepts border changes in West Germany accepts border changes in West

after WWIafter WWI Germany accepted into European order, Germany accepted into European order,

admitted to League of Nationsadmitted to League of Nations Germany, Belgium, Britain, France, Italy Germany, Belgium, Britain, France, Italy

agree form defensive pactagree form defensive pact Germany pledged to use arbitration for any Germany pledged to use arbitration for any

dispute with Poland and Czechoslovakiadispute with Poland and Czechoslovakia France re-confirmed defense pacts with France re-confirmed defense pacts with

Poland and CzechoslovakiaPoland and Czechoslovakia

German LeaderGerman LeaderGustav StresemanGustav Streseman

1878-19291878-1929

Son of Berlin beer distributorSon of Berlin beer distributor

Won Nobel Peace Prize for LocarnoWon Nobel Peace Prize for Locarno

View of Weimar: View of Weimar: VernunftrepublikanerVernunftrepublikaner

Chancellor, Germany, Aug-Nov 1923Chancellor, Germany, Aug-Nov 1923

Foreign Minister, Nov 1923-1929Foreign Minister, Nov 1923-1929

““Fulfillment” Policy (Fulfillment” Policy (à la Nixon to China)à la Nixon to China)

“…gain a free hand to secure peace change of borders in the East and…later incorporation of German territories in the East”

Stresemann, 1923Stresemann, 1923

““All our measures of a political and All our measures of a political and diplomatic nature, through deliberate diplomatic nature, through deliberate cooperation by the two Anglo-Saxon cooperation by the two Anglo-Saxon Powers, the estrangement of Italy from Powers, the estrangement of Italy from [France], and the vacillation of Belgium, [France], and the vacillation of Belgium, have combined to create a situation for have combined to create a situation for France that the country will not in the long France that the country will not in the long run be able to sustain.”run be able to sustain.”

– Kissinger, Kissinger, DiplomacyDiplomacy, citing Stresemann diaries, citing Stresemann diaries

French LeaderFrench LeaderAristide BriandAristide Briand

1862-19321862-1932Early fame for work on Early fame for work on separation of church and stateseparation of church and stateLeader, French Socialist PartyLeader, French Socialist PartyPrime Minister 1909-1911, 1915-Prime Minister 1909-1911, 1915-1917, 1921-22, 1925-26, 19291917, 1921-22, 1925-26, 19291928: Pact of Paris, or Kellogg-1928: Pact of Paris, or Kellogg-Briand Pact, outlawing warBriand Pact, outlawing warGets along well with StresemannGets along well with Stresemann“I conduct the foreign

policy of France’s birth rate.”

British LeaderBritish LeaderAustin ChamberlainAustin Chamberlain

1863-19371863-1937

Son of great Joseph Chamberlain, Mother Son of great Joseph Chamberlain, Mother dies during his birth; Half-brother: Nevilledies during his birth; Half-brother: Neville

Love of FranceLove of France

Conservative Leader, but only one not to Conservative Leader, but only one not to become PMbecome PM

1915-1917: Secretary of State for India1915-1917: Secretary of State for India

1918-1921 : Chancellor of Exchequer1918-1921 : Chancellor of Exchequer

1924-1929: Foreign Affairs1924-1929: Foreign Affairs

1930s: Strong supporter of re-armament, 1930s: Strong supporter of re-armament, Churchill allyChurchill ally

“For the Polish Corridor, no British government ever will or ever can risk the bones of a British grenadier.” 1925

SituationSituation

Little Entente formed (Czechoslovakia, Little Entente formed (Czechoslovakia, Romania, Yugoslavia, France, 1924-27)Romania, Yugoslavia, France, 1924-27)

French alliancesFrench alliancesFrance & “Little Entente”

Challenges to VersaillesChallenges to Versailles1934: Germany leaves League of Nations1934: Germany leaves League of Nations1934: Hitler tries to take over Austria but fails1934: Hitler tries to take over Austria but fails1935: Hitler re-introduces conscription, repudiates 1935: Hitler re-introduces conscription, repudiates other disarmament obligations in Versailles Treatyother disarmament obligations in Versailles Treaty1936: German troops into Rhineland1936: German troops into Rhineland1936: Germany military intervention to support 1936: Germany military intervention to support fascists in Spanish Civil Warfascists in Spanish Civil War1938: Germany annexes Austria1938: Germany annexes Austria1938: Germany annexes Sudetenland1938: Germany annexes Sudetenland1939: Germany annexes rest of Czechoslovakia1939: Germany annexes rest of Czechoslovakia1939: Germany invades Poland – World War in 1939: Germany invades Poland – World War in Europe beginsEurope begins

The “German Problem” AgainThe “German Problem” Again

Germany’s Relative Power in the Germany’s Relative Power in the International SystemInternational System

PopulationPopulation(M)(M)

19131913 19201920 19281928 19381938

USSRUSSR 175175 127127 150150 180180

USAUSA 9797 106106 119119 138138

GermanyGermany 6767 4343 55.455.4 68.568.5

BritainBritain 4646 4444 4646 4848

FranceFrance 39.739.7 3939 4141 4242

Relative Industrial PotentialRelative Industrial Potential(UK 1900 = 100)(UK 1900 = 100)19281928 19381938

BritainBritain 135135 181181

USUS 533533 528528

FranceFrance 8282 7474

GermanyGermany 158158 214214

USSRUSSR 7272 152152

Defense Expenditures Defense Expenditures $M, current$M, current

YearYear GermanyGermany UKUK FranceFrance USSRUSSR USAUSA

19331933 162162 512512 498498 722722 699699

19341934 452452 333333 524524 707707 579579

19371937 3,2983,298 1,2451,245 890890 3,4463,4461,6211,621

19381938 7,4157,415 1,8631,863 919919 5,4295,4291,1311,131

Military Aircraft ProductionMilitary Aircraft Production

19321932 19351935 19371937 19391939 19411941 19441944

FranceFrance (600)(600) 785785 743743 3,1633,163 ---- ----

BritainBritain 445445 1,1401,140 2,1532,153 7,9407,940 21K21K 26K26K

USAUSA 593593 459459 949949 2,1952,195 26K26K 96K96K

GermanyGermany3636 3,1833,183 5,6065,606 8,2958,295 12K12K 40K40K

USSRUSSR 2,5952,595 3,5783,578 3,5783,578 10,38210,382 15K15K 40K40K

1935-371935-37

1938: Anschluss1938: Anschluss

1938 after Munich1938 after Munich

3/1939: Czechoslovakia 3/1939: Czechoslovakia gonegone

1939: Poland (& Balts) 1939: Poland (& Balts) gonegone

Maginot LineMaginot Line

Maginot Line Maginot Line UndergroundUnderground

Map of Maginot LineMap of Maginot Line

SudetenlandSudetenland

Red areas indicate Red areas indicate >> 80% German in 1930 80% German in 1930 censuscensus

Munich 1938: Carving up Munich 1938: Carving up CzechoslovakiaCzechoslovakia

Fate of DemocracyFate of Democracy

DemocDemoc Democ RegimeDemoc RegimeStateState FoundingFounding CollapsesCollapsesGermanyGermany 19191919 19331933CzechoslovakiaCzechoslovakia 19181918 1938*1938*PolandPoland 19181918 19261926AustriaAustria 19201920 19331933HungaryHungary 1920*1920* 19321932EstoniaEstonia 19181918 19341934LatviaLatvia 19201920 19341934

Neville ChamberlainNeville Chamberlain1869-19401869-1940

                   

     

British Prime Minister, 1937-British Prime Minister, 1937-4040

Chamberlain: Peace in our Time Chamberlain: Peace in our Time (Sept 1939)(Sept 1939)

Chamberlain’s CaseChamberlain’s Case

Difficulty of Evaluating Hitler’s IntentionsDifficulty of Evaluating Hitler’s Intentions– Hitler’s offers at Rhineland Crisis 1936Hitler’s offers at Rhineland Crisis 1936– Hitler’s offers during Munich Crisis 1938Hitler’s offers during Munich Crisis 1938– Hitler's actual objectives (Hossbach Memo, 1937)Hitler's actual objectives (Hossbach Memo, 1937)

Britain not ready for warBritain not ready for warBritain’s geopolitical nightmareBritain’s geopolitical nightmareBritish Public OpinionBritish Public Opinion

Defining AppeasementDefining Appeasement– General DefinitionGeneral Definition– 1895 – US & GB: Appeasement worked1895 – US & GB: Appeasement worked

The Churchill DebatesThe Churchill Debates

“Appeasement is feeding a crocodile and hoping to be eaten last.”

-- Churchill

Churchill CriticsChurchill Critics

John CharmleyU of East Anglia

David Irving

Christopher HitchensChristopher Hitchens

Churchill’s CaseChurchill’s Case

We should have gone to war in 1938We should have gone to war in 1938

The German GeneralsThe German Generals

Military balance was not bad Military balance was not bad

The SovietsThe Soviets

The balance of power worsened after The balance of power worsened after 19381938

Munich did not get Britain any Munich did not get Britain any “breathing space”“breathing space”

Balance of Military PowerBalance of Military Power

19381938 19391939British Army to FranceBritish Army to France 2 divisions2 divisions 4 divisions4 divisionsRAFRAF 5 squadrons Hurricane/5 squadrons Hurricane/ 26 squadrons26 squadrons

SpitfireSpitfire

French ArmyFrench Army 100 divisions100 divisions 100 divisions100 divisionsFrench tanksFrench tanks 13501350 22502250

Czech ArmyCzech Army 40 div40 div 00

German regular ArmyGerman regular Army 47 div47 div 51 div51 divGerman reservesGerman reserves 51div51div 51 div51 divGerman west defenseGerman west defense 10 div10 div 12 reg div, 25 reserve div12 reg div, 25 reserve divTanksTanks 2x 19382x 1938Panzer divisionsPanzer divisions 33 66German submarinesGerman submarines 66 2626German major warshipsGerman major warships 11 1111

Taylor, Munich

What Germany Got from CZSWhat Germany Got from CZSafter Munichafter Munich

1,231 aircraft1,231 aircraft

810 tanks810 tanks

1,996 anti-tank guns1,996 anti-tank guns

2,254 field artillery pieces2,254 field artillery pieces

57,000 machine guns57,000 machine guns

630,000 rifles630,000 riflesMurray & Millett, A War to Be Won

Armament ProgramsArmament Programs

CountryCountry YearYear AmountAmount

G BritainG Britain 1935-361935-36 £122.2 M£122.2 M

G BritainG Britain 1938-391938-39 £319.6 M£319.6 M

FranceFrance 19341934 11.4 B francs11.4 B francs

FranceFrance 19381938 26 B francs26 B francs

Encarta

Josef Dzhugashvili, aka StalinJosef Dzhugashvili, aka Stalin

1879-1953, b. in Georgia1879-1953, b. in Georgia

Soviet Dictator, 1928-53Soviet Dictator, 1928-53

1928: First “Five Year Plans” 1928: First “Five Year Plans” beginbegin

Brutal policies led to 25-30 Brutal policies led to 25-30 million dead million dead beforebefore WW2 WW2

Ideological communist?Ideological communist?

Great Russia Nationalist?Great Russia Nationalist?

Risk-acceptant or Risk-Risk-acceptant or Risk-adverse?adverse?

“The death of one man is a tragedy; the death of a million is a statistic.”

Stalin & HitlerStalin & Hitler

1932-33: Stalin prevents Socialist-1932-33: Stalin prevents Socialist-Communist cooperation to stop Hitler Communist cooperation to stop Hitler from taking powerfrom taking power1934-38: Popular Front Policy 1934-38: Popular Front Policy 1938: Stalin at Munich1938: Stalin at Munich1939-41: Appeasement1939-41: AppeasementJune 1941: Disaster of June 1941: Disaster of BarbarossaBarbarossa

1938: Anschluss1938: Anschluss

Stalin Purges the Red ArmyStalin Purges the Red Army

Feb 1937 to Nov 1938Feb 1937 to Nov 1938““Great Purge”Great Purge”3 of 5 Marshals3 of 5 Marshals3 of 4 Army Commanders3 of 4 Army CommandersAll 15 second-rank army All 15 second-rank army commanderscommandersBoth fleet commandersBoth fleet commanders51 of 57 Corps commanders51 of 57 Corps commanders140 of 186 division commanders140 of 186 division commanders

Marshal Tukachevsky

Robert Tucker, Stalin in PowerTucker, Stalin in Power, 1992

The Hitler-Stalin Pact, 1939The Hitler-Stalin Pact, 1939

Kissinger’s Analysis:Kissinger’s Analysis:What Went Wrong?What Went Wrong?

Mistake: Focus on Motive rather than PowerMistake: Focus on Motive rather than PowerMistake: West rearmed too lateMistake: West rearmed too lateMistake: Contradiction in French StrategyMistake: Contradiction in French Strategy

Basic LessonsBasic LessonsParadox of Peace Policy: Peace at any price can Paradox of Peace Policy: Peace at any price can produce warproduce warWarning: Few situations in IR deal with Warning: Few situations in IR deal with unambiguous evil like Hitlerunambiguous evil like Hitler

Fall of FranceFall of FranceMay-June 1940May-June 1940