The economic model in the

ELPEN systemPetra Jägersberg,

Martin van der Beek, Peter Hinrichs

Progress December 2002 to February 2003

• Technical validation of the economic model

• Scenario studies (milk quota exit) with typical farms

3-step approach

• Step 1: Check of input data

• Step 2: Model calculation and check of result data

• Step 3: Check of calculation rules

Check of input data

• Step 1: Test set with all input variables (244) for a selection of 10 model farms

• Step 2: Plausibility check of input variables• Step 3: Check of calculation rules for internal

calculated input variables, check of missing values, check of units, etc.

• Step 4: Improvements in first configuration of Economic model in the Elpen system

Check of result data

• Step 1: FADN variables contain logical values

• Step 2: Calculate with the test data set for Austria in the model

• Step 3: Compare the results of the test data set calculated within the Elpen system and of the test data set calculated with the original Excel model

Check of calculation rules

• Step 1: Identify differences in results• Step 2: Check if calculation rules are plausible• Step 3: Corrections in the configuration of the

calculation rules in the Elpen system• Step 4: Confirm identical results for the test data

set inside and outside the Elpen system• Technical validation is finalised

Further work• Vulnerable farms

– Farm groups (averages) & single farm data sets• Knowledge rules on income, liquidity, and farm

development

• Behavioral model– with regard to scenario studies from LP model

analysis (FAL, INRA) and typical farms (IFCN panel farms)

• Knowledge rules on farmers´ behavior• Projected impacts on incomes, production and regional

markets

Vulnerability

• Definition: – as given in Brussels, June 2001

• Criteria – Short-term: Available cash – Long-term: Rentability (incl. accounting the

opportunity costs of family-owned factors)

• Problem: Results were not convincing in too many cases.

Vulnerability - Problems• Country- and year-specific subsidies (A, SF)• Country-specific bookkeeping rules and practice,

Examples:– Family labour in Italy,

– Forestry output in Sweden,

– Revaluation of assets (Italy),

– Different beginning and end of acconting period, accessing different phases of price cycles,

– Neglecting the quota costs in many countries.

• Severe data errors in single-farm data sets.

Vulnerability – Problems (cont.)

Steps taken to overcome the problems:• Direct assessment of milk production costs versus

milk prices (Goertz/Jaegersberg-approach),• Plausi-checking milk quantities and prices, removing

inconsistent farm groups,• Confine vulnerability problems to dairy farms (EU-

type 41 or similarly defined) and/or to groups with meaningful amount of milk production.

Farmers’ reactions to policy actions

• Policy effect in view: Reduction of milk price. • Rules of Farmers’ behavior derived from

– Economic theory, expert judgements,– Simulation models, and– Statistical analyses on past developments.

verbal (not quantitative) rules at the moment.– Quota costs go down (<)1 : 1,– Specialist dairy farms will expand, mixed farms will go out,– High opportunity costs (on- and off-farm) favour outgoing,– Recent investments in buildings object to giving-up.

Further work

The prices of the limiting factors determine the rentability,

and decide on growth or exit from production

Ges

Successful farms would like to

increase production

Average farms trying to grow in order to keep their position

Less successful farmstend to give up milk production

Costs

Farms

Further work-scenario studies

0

100.000

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TIPI-CALAgenda 2000 (opt)QA 2008 + MP (-22%)Quote 2008 + MP (-22%)0000TIPI-CALQuote 2008 + MP (-22%)QA 2008 + MP (-30%)QA 2008 + GP (-22%)QA 2008 + MGP (-22%)0000

D-650 cows

Profit € per farm

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TIPI-CALAgenda 2000 (opt)QA 2008 + MP (-22%)Quote 2008 + MP (-22%)QA 2008 + MP (-30%)QA 2008 + GP (-22%)QA 2008 + MGP (-22%)00000

D-68 cows

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TIPI-CALAgenda 2000 (opt)QA 2008 + MP (-22%)Quote 2008 + MP (-22%)QA 2008 + MP (-30%)QA 2008 + GP (-22%)QA 2008 + MGP (-22%)0000

D-35 cows

Further work

• Threshold of production = short-term needed milk price

• Variable costs - by product sales

• Cash threshold (Liquidity threshold) medium-term needed milk price

• Threshold of production + fixed expenses + family living

• Threshold of profit = long-term needed milk price• Full costs of production (incl. depreciation and

opportunity costs on family-owned land, capital and labour) - by product sales

Further work

• Cash flow indicator: – Development of networth = profit + depreciation -

family consumption• Family consumption ?

= Consumption + private assurances + share for retired farmer - non-farm income