The Human PopulationThe Human Population

Concepts we will discussConcepts we will discuss

Factors affecting human population size. Factors affecting human population size.

Managing population growth Managing population growth

Human population problems Human population problems

More concepts we will discussMore concepts we will discuss

How populations are measured and what information those statistics reveal

Population growth theory

Relationship between carrying capacity and population growth

Even more concepts we will discussEven more concepts we will discuss

Arguments associated with the Great Population Debate.

How demographic statistics provide information about a nation’s quality of life.

Population growth and quality of life comparisons between more- and less-developed countries.

What is a population?What is a population?

Individuals of a single species that simultaneously occupy the same general area, having a high likelihood of interaction.

Characteristics of PopulationsCharacteristics of Populations

Population Density: Number of individuals per unit area.

Characteristics of PopulationsCharacteristics of Populations

Population Dispersion: Pattern of spacing among individuals.

Population GrowthExponential (no limit to what environment can support)

Logistic (environment has a specific carrying capacity)

Population GrowthPopulation Growth

Growth RatesCrude birth rate Crude death rate Zero population growth

Population GrowthPopulation Growth

Doubling Times Rule of 70 Least Developed Countries have the

shortest doubling times.

The Rule of 70The Rule of 70

The Great Population Debate Points of View There is No Population Problem

Cornucopian: People are the world’s ultimate resource.

Marxists: Poverty is the result of distribution problems, not overpopulation.

The Great Population DebateThe Great Population Debate

The Great Population Debate Points of View There is a Problem

Malthusians: Population growth, which is exponential, is limited by growth in the food supply, which is arithmetic.

Neo-Malthusians: In addition to food, other factors (such as shortages of water and space) impose limits on continued growth.

Zero Population Growth: A halt in population growth is needed

The Great Population DebateThe Great Population Debate

“The ‘Population Problem’ is a Complex Issue”“The ‘Population Problem’ is a Complex Issue”

Problems are the result of unequal distribution of resources and high growth rates.

Over-consumption by slow-growth countries is also problematic.

Factors Affecting Human Population SizeFactors Affecting Human Population Size

Population change equationP final = P initial + (B - D) + (I – E) or

Population change equationP final = P initial + (B - D) + (I – E) or

Population

Change

Population

Change== (Births + Immigration) – (Deaths + Emigration)(Births + Immigration) – (Deaths + Emigration)

Factors Affecting Human Population SizeFactors Affecting Human Population Size

Crude birth rate (CBR)(CBR): number of live births per 1,000 people

Crude birth rate (CBR)(CBR): number of live births per 1,000 people

Crude death rate (CDR)(CDR): number of deaths per 1,000 people

Crude death rate (CDR)(CDR): number of deaths per 1,000 people

World PopulationWorld Population

Population GrowthPopulation Growth

High

Medium

Low

12

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

21950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

High10.6

Medium8.9

Low7.2

Year

Po

pu

lati

on

(b

illio

ns)

No standard carrying capacity equation for humans

Humans are classified geopolitically, classifications which are ecologically meaningless.

Humans can raise carrying capacity of environment through technology.

Carrying Capacity as Applied to Human PopulationsCarrying Capacity as Applied to Human Populations

Quality of life (standard of living) separates the calculation of carrying capacity between humans and nonhumans.

Cultural carrying capacity When standards of living drop

dramatically, people may become environmental refugees.

Carrying Capacity as Applied to Human PopulationsCarrying Capacity as Applied to Human Populations

Fertility General fertility rate—number of

births per 1,000 women of childbearing age per year (ages 15-49)

Age-specific fertility rate—number of live births per 1,000 women of a specific age group per year

What Factors Affect Human Growth Rates?What Factors Affect Human Growth Rates?

Total fertility rate—average number of children a woman will bear throughout her life, based on the current age-specific fertility rate and assuming the current birth rate will remain constant throughout her life

Replacement fertility rate—fertility rate needed to ensure that each set of parents is “replaced” by their offspring.

What Factors Affect Human Growth Rates?What Factors Affect Human Growth Rates?

9 Factors Affecting Birth Rates and Total Fertility Rates9 Factors Affecting Birth Rates and Total Fertility Rates

Children in Labor Force Cost of raising and educating children Availability of pension systems Urbanization Education and employment for women Infant mortality rate Average marrying age Abortion Availability of birth control

Children in Labor Force Cost of raising and educating children Availability of pension systems Urbanization Education and employment for women Infant mortality rate Average marrying age Abortion Availability of birth control

Infant mortality rate (IMR)—number of infants under one year of age who die per 1,000 births each year

Childhood mortality rate (CMR)—number of children between one and five years of age who die per 1,000 births each year

Factors Affecting Death RatesFactors Affecting Death Rates

IMR is best single indicator of a society’s quality of life.

Infant and Childhood MortalityInfant and Childhood Mortality

Factors that contribute to high IMR and CMR include diarrhea (often caused by disease-infested water), improper weaning, famine, malnutrition, poor health of mother, and inadequate prenatal care.

Infant and Childhood MortalityInfant and Childhood Mortality

Click to view animation.

Examples of age structure interaction

Ages 0-14Ages 0-14 Ages 15-44Ages 15-44 Ages 45-85+Ages 45-85+

Rapid GrowthGuatemala

NigeriaSaudi Arabia

Rapid GrowthGuatemala

NigeriaSaudi Arabia

Slow GrowthUnited States

AustraliaCanada

Slow GrowthUnited States

AustraliaCanada

MaleMale FemaleFemale

Zero GrowthSpainAustriaGreece

Zero GrowthSpainAustriaGreece

Negative GrowthGermanyBulgariaSweden

Negative GrowthGermanyBulgariaSweden

Population Age StructurePopulation Age Structure

Graphically represented by population profile

Developing Countries have pyramidal-shaped profile;

Developed Countries have more rectangular or columnar profile.

Age DistributionAge Distribution

Important indicator of future growth rates

Population momentum—occurs when large numbers of young people are present are in the population, ensuring continued growth even after fertility rates drop

Age DistributionAge Distribution

Determines a nation’s dependency load—the proportion of the population below 15 or above 65 years of age

Migration Actual rate of increase

Age DistributionAge Distribution

Influencing Population SizeInfluencing Population Size

MigrationMigration

Environmental refugeesEnvironmental refugees

Reducing birthsReducing births

Family planningFamily planning

Empowerment of womenEmpowerment of women

Economic rewards and penaltiesEconomic rewards and penalties

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

01820 1840 18801860 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2010

Year

Nu

mb

er o

f le

gal

imm

igra

nts

(th

ou

san

ds)

1907

1914New laws restrict immigration

Great Depression

The Demographic TransitionThe Demographic Transition

LowLow

HighHigh

Rel

ativ

e p

op

ula

tio

n s

ize

Rel

ativ

e p

op

ula

tio

n s

ize

Bir

th r

ate

and

dea

th r

ate

(nu

mb

er p

er 1

,000

per

yea

r)B

irth

rat

e an

d d

eath

rat

e(n

um

ber

per

1,0

00 p

er y

ear) 8080

7070

6060

5050

4040

3030

2020

1010

00

Stage 1Preindustrial

Stage 1Preindustrial

Stage 2Transindustrial

Stage 2Transindustrial

Stage 3IndustrialStage 3

IndustrialStage 4

PostindustrialStage 4

Postindustrial

Lowgrowth rate

Lowgrowth rate

Increasing Growthgrowth rate

Increasing Growthgrowth rate

Very highgrowth rateVery high

growth rateDecreasinggrowth rateDecreasinggrowth rate

Lowgrowth rate

Lowgrowth rate

Zerogrowth rate

Zerogrowth rate

Negativegrowth rate

Negativegrowth rate

Birth rate

Total population

Death rate

TimeTime

Fig. 10-20 p. 189

Click to view animation.

Demographic transition model interaction.

Every one percent increase in population Every one percent increase in population needs a three percent increase in GNP.needs a three percent increase in GNP.

High growth rates of LDCs have High growth rates of LDCs have overwhelmed governments.overwhelmed governments.

How does population growth affect economic development?How does population growth affect economic development?

Population DensityPopulation Density UrbanizationUrbanization Life Expectancy (at birth)Life Expectancy (at birth)

What Do Demographic Statistics Tell About Quality of Life? What Do Demographic Statistics Tell About Quality of Life?

Cutting Global Population GrowthCutting Global Population Growth

Family planning Family planning

Reduce poverty Reduce poverty

Elevate the status of women Elevate the status of women

Improve health care Improve health care

Increase education Increase education

Involve men in parenting Involve men in parenting

Sustainability Sustainability

Motherhood Only OptionMotherhood Only Option Birth Rates RiseBirth Rates Rise

If Women’s Status is Low:If Women’s Status is Low:

Access to EducationAccess to Education Access to Adequate Health CareAccess to Adequate Health Care Legal RightsLegal Rights Maternal mortality ratioMaternal mortality ratio Employment Opportunities Outside HomeEmployment Opportunities Outside Home Wage EarningsWage Earnings Marriage AgeMarriage Age Number of ChildrenNumber of Children

A women’s status is determined by:A women’s status is determined by:

U.S. Birth Rates: 1910-2004U.S. Birth Rates: 1910-2004

32

30

2826242220181614

0Bir

ths

pe

r th

ou

sa

nd

po

pu

lati

on

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

2010

Year

Demographictransition

Depression

End of World War II

Baby boom Baby bust Echo baby boom

Average crude birth rate Average crude death rate

World

All developedcountries

All developingcountries

Developingcountries

(w/o China)

21

9

11

10

24

8

27

9

© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

Africa

LatinAmerica

Asia

Oceania

UnitedStates

NorthAmerica

Europe

38

14

22

6

20

7

18

7

14

8

14

8

10

12

© 2

004

Bro

oks

/Co

le –

Th

om

son

Lea

rnin

g

© 2

004

Bro

oks

/Co

le –

Th

om

son

Lea

rnin

g China

India

USA

Indonesia

Brazil

Pakistan

Russia

Bangladesh

Japan

Nigeria

2004 2025

1.3 billion1.4 billion

1.1 billion1.4 billion

294 million

349 million

219 million308 million

179 million

211 million

159 million

229 million

144 million137 million

141 million

205 million

128 million

121 million

137 million206 million

World

Developedcountries

Developingcountries

Africa

LatinAmerica

Asia

Oceania

NorthAmerica

Europe

5 children per woman2.8

2.5

1.6

6.53.1

6.65.1

5.92.6

5.92.6

3.82.1

3.52.0

2.61.4

1950 2004

© 2

004

Bro

oks

/Co

le –

Th

om

son

Lea

rnin

g

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.02.1

1.5

1.0

0.5

01920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Bir

ths

per

wo

man

Baby boom(1946-64)

Replacement level

47 years77 years

8%81%

15%

83%

10%98%

2%99%

10%52%

$15$3

1.25.8

1900

2000

Life expectancy

Married women workingoutside the home

High school graduates

Homes with flush toilets

Homes with electricity

Living in suburbs

Hourly manufacturing jobwage (adjusted for inflation)

Homicides per100,000 people

600

500

400

300

200

100

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

76

292

571

Total population

Projections

Year

Po

pu

lati

on

in m

illio

ns

United States Mexico Canada

Population(2004)

Projected population(2025)

349 million

Infant mortality rate

Lifeexpectancy

Total fertilityrate (TFR)

% populationunder age 15

% populationover age 65

Per capitaGDP PPP

294 million106 million

32 million

150million36 million

6.725

5.2

2.02.8

1.7

21%35%

18%

12%

13%5%

$8,790

77 years75 years

79 years

$36,110

$31,892

© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

China: Slowing Population GrowthChina: Slowing Population Growth

Economic incentivesEconomic incentives

Free medical careFree medical care

Preferential treatmentPreferential treatment

Very intrusive and coerciveVery intrusive and coercive

Locally administeredLocally administered

India: Slowing Population GrowthIndia: Slowing Population Growth

Poor planningPoor planningBureaucratic inefficiencyBureaucratic inefficiencyLow status of womenLow status of womenExtreme povertyExtreme povertyLack of supportLack of support

Generally disappointing results:Generally disappointing results:

Percentageof world

population

Population

Population (2025)(estimated)

Illiteracy (%of adults)

Population under age 15(%)

Population growth rate (%)

Total fertility rate

Infant mortality rate

Life expectancy

GDP PPP per capita

17%20%

1.1 billion1.3 billion

1.4 billion

1.4 billion

47%17%

36%

22%

1.7%0.6%

3.1 children per woman (down from 5.3 in 1970)1.7 children per woman (down from 5.7 in 1972)

6432

62 years

71 years

$2,650

$4,520

IndiaChina