The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Nick Jones Florida International University February 5, 2014 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
Transcript
The Outlook for Energy:A View to 2040
Nick Jones
Florida International UniversityFebruary 5, 2014
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
Energy Outlook Development
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
100 countries15 demand
sectors
Residential
Commercial
Lt. Transportation
Hvy. Transportation
Aviation
Marine
Rail
Chemicals
Asphalt
Lubricants
Flaring
Energy Industry
Agriculture
Heavy Industry
Power Generation
Motor Gasoline
Distillate
Naphtha
Jet Fuel
Fuel Oil
LPG
Lubes
Asphalt
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Biomass/Other
Coal
Hydro
Geothermal
20 fuel types
Solar
Wind
Bio-mogas
Bio-distillate
Electricity
Market Heat
Technology & Policy
Trade Flows
Global Progress Drives Demand
Billion
Population GDPTrillion 2005$
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040
0.8%
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040
2.8%
OECD
Non OECD
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
People’s Living Standard Depends on Energy
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
People’s Living Standard Depends on Energy
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
People’s Living Standard Depends on Energy
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Energy Saved ~500
Energy DemandQuadrillion BTUs
Energy DemandQuadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040
1.0%
Global Progress Drives Demand
Billion
Population GDPTrillion 2005$
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040
0.8%
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040
2.8%
OECD
Non OECD
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Global Urbanization & Major Cities (2010)
2010 Percentage Urban
0-50%
50-75%
75-100%
2010 City – 10 million +
Source: United Nations and ExxonMobil estimates
Global Urbanization & Major Cities (2040)
2040 Percentage Urban
0-50%
50-75%
75-100%
2010 City – 10 million +
2040 City – 10 million +
Source: United Nations and ExxonMobil estimates
Tale of Two Worlds
Non OECD
Quadrillion BTUs
Biomass
Other Renewables
Oil
Nuclear
Quadrillion BTUs
OECD
Coal
Gas
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Energy Demand by Sector
Quadrillion BTUs
2010
2025
2040
Electricity Generation Leads Growth
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Residential/Commercial
Residential/Commercial Outlook
By Sector
Quadrillion BTUs
Commercial
Residential
By Region
Quadrillion BTUs
Rest of World
OECD
By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
India
Africa
China
Oil
Gas
Coal
Biomass
Electricity
Other
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Industrial
By Sector
Energy Industry
Chemicals
Heavy Industry
Other
Percent Share
By Fuel
Percent Share
Other Oil
NGLs
NaphthaOther
Electricity
Coal
Gas
Industrial Energy DemandBy Region
Quadrillion BTUs
OECD
China
India
Rest of Non OECD
2010
2040
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Heavy Industry in China and India
Global Iron & Steel Production
Billion Tonnes
Heavy Industry* Demand by Region
Quadrillion BTUs
OECD
China
India
Rest of World
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy * Iron & Steel, Cement and General Manufacturing
OECD
China
India
Rest of World
Transportation
Commercial Transportation by Region - 2010Commercial Transportation by Region - 2040Sector DemandMBDOE
Light Duty
Marine
Rail
Heavy Duty
Aviation
Transportation Demand
MBDOE
2010
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Range of Average Vehicle EfficiencyOn-Road Miles per Gallon
U.S.
Average Fleet
Europe
Light Duty Vehicle Efficiency
Car Fleet by TypeMillion Cars
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Transportation Fuel Mix by Region
Asia PacificMBDOE
Diesel
Gasoline
Ethanol
Biodiesel
Jet FuelFuel Oil
Other
Natural Gas
North AmericaMBDOE
EuropeMBDOE
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
U.S. Natural Gas Vehicle Economics
3-yr. Cost of Ownership; $k
Heavy Duty Vehicles
VehicleCost
Fuel Cost
5-yr. Cost of Ownership; $k
Light Duty Vehicles
Vehicle Cost
Fuel Cost
LNG Tanks
Long Haul Truck
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Electricity Generation
Electricity Demand
Global Electrical Demand by SectorThousand TWh
Residential
Commercial
Heavy Industry
Other Industry
Transportation
Global Electrical Demand by FuelThousand TWh
Wind & Solar
Oil
Coal
Nuclear
Other Renewables
Gas
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
2040
1000 KWh per Capita
Population (Billions)
Electricity Use
Electricity Use by Region
Growth in Electricity Demand
2010 – 2040~90%
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Plant Cost, Startup 2030Plant Cost, Startup 2030
CCS Onshore Wind
Gas
Coal
Gas
2013 cents/kWh
Coal Nuclear
$60/tonne of CO2
$0/tonne
Solar PV Utility
Solar PV Utility
CCS Onshore Wind
Gas
Coal
Gas
2013 cents/kWh
Coal Nuclear
*Reliability cost includes integration, backup capacity and additional transmission costs.
Economic Choices for U.S. Electricity
Baseload Intermittent
Reliability Cost*
Reliability Cost*
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Emissions
2030
~ 60 $/ton
CO2 “Proxy” Cost
2040
~ 20 $/ton
~ 15 $/ton
~ 80 $/ton
< 10 $/ton
CO2 “Proxy” Cost
CO2 Policies
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Emissions per GDP
Tonnes / 2005$ k GDP
2010
2040
Energy-Related CO2 Emissions Moderate
Billion Tonnes
CO2 Emissions Emissions per Capita
Tonnes / Person
OECD
Non OECD
2010
2040
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Energy Mix Continues to Evolve
Quadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040
1.0%
2040
2010
0.7%
1.7%
0.0%
2.5% 0.4%
5.9% 2.0%
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Supply
Liquids Supply
Liquid Supply by TypeMBDOE
Other
Biofuels
Conventional Crude & Condensate
Tight OilOil Sands
NGLs
Deepwater
Crude and Condensate Resource*
Cumulative Production through 2040
Remaining Resource
Trillion barrels of oil
* Source: IEAExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
* Source: IEA
Major New Liquids by RegionMBDOE
NGLs
Deepwater
Oil Sands
Biofuels
North America Latin America Middle East Africa
Tight Oil
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Remaining Global Gas Resource
Over 200 years coverage at current demand
1000 TCF
Conventional
Unconventional
4.0
North America
3.0
Latin America
1.6
Europe OECD
3.6
Africa
4.8
Middle East
6.7
Russia/ Caspian*
4.9
Asia Pacific
Source: IEA; *Includes Europe Non OECD
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Gas Supply DiversifiesUnconventional Production by TypeBCFD
Tight
Coalbed Methane
Shale
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
North America
Middle East
Gas Production by Region
Russia/Caspian
Africa
Latin America
Europe
Asia Pacific
BCFD BCFD
Unconventional
Conventional
ROW
Gas Production by Type
BCFD
Pipeline
LNG
Local Unconventional
Local Conventional
By Type
Global Gas Supply Growth 2010 to 2040
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
LNG Demand Triples and LNG Supply Diversifies
BCFDLNG in 2040
Asia Pacific
Other
2010 Pacific Basin
Europe
MiddleEast
AtlanticBasin
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
Global Energy Trade
ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for EnergyIndicative trade flows
