8-1-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Unit 8
8-2-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Unit 8 Objectives1. Identify the types, purpose, and elements of
Predictive Service products. 2. Identify the types, purpose, and elements of
National Weather Service products.3. Identify ways in which firefighters can
receive fire weather products and weather observations.
4. Describe the importance of Incident Meteorologists (IMET) and Fire Behavior Analysts (FBAN) on wildland fires.
8-3-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Meeting Fire Management Needs
• Fire weather/fire potential products help:– Plan daily fire management activities– Plan effective control actions– Determine short and long term fire
potential
• Products developed by:– Land Management Predictive Services– National Weather Service (NWS)
8-4-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Predictive Services• Combined group of fire Intelligence
Coordinators, FBANs, and Fire Meteorologists.
• Each GACC has a predictive services group to meet the needs of the geographic area.
• GACC level information is integrated into national level outlooks.
8-5-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Predictive Services
Reno
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8-6-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
• Monitors, analyzes and predicts fire weather, fire danger and interagency fire management resource impact.
• Produce a range of combined fire weather/fire danger outlooks for predetermined predictive service zones.
• Zones based on RAWS climatology and topography.
Predictive ServicesProducts and Services
8-7-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Products are targeted to aid resource related decision-making at the GACC and national levels
Northwest Area Predictive Services Zones
Predictive ServicesProducts and Services
8-8-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
• 7-Day Significant Fire Potential • Monthly Fire Weather/Fire Danger
Outlook• National Fire Weather/Fire Danger
Outlook• Seasonal Assessment Outlook• Other products
Predictive ServicesSuite of Products
8-9-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
7 Day Significant Fire Potential
8-9-S290-EP
8-10-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
• Provides fire potential for a geographical area
• The product includes:– Weather/fuels discussion– Current and projected fuel dryness – Fire potential discussion map – Significant weather– High risk days– Resource concerns
Predictive Services7 Day Significant Fire Potential
8-11-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Monthly Fire Weather Fire Danger Outlook
Fire danger report and map
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8-12-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Monthly Fire Weather Fire Danger Outlook
• Monthly:– Generated by the GACCs
• Includes:– A brief discussion of general weather/fire
danger for the GA– A brief discussion on current GA fuel
anomalies/fuel moisture– Predicted temperature and precipitation– Fire potential map
Predictive Services
8-13-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
National Wildland Fire OutlookPredictive Services
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8-14-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
National Wildland Fire Outlook• National Monthly Outlook:
– Issued monthly and year-round– Compiled from each GA monthly fire
weather/fire danger outlook
• Product includes:– GACC narratives– Current and projected fire statistics– Fire potential map
Predictive Services
8-15-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Seasonal Assessments• Issued on both Geographic and
National levels prior to fire season• Product typically includes:
– Executive summary– Introduction and objectives– Current situation– Comparison of current and historical
conditions– Climate, weather, fire forecasts and
outlooks
Predictive Services
8-16-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
– Predicted fire occurrence and resource needs
– Future scenarios and probabilities
– Considerations, concerns andmanagement implications
– Summary, discussions and recommendations
Predictive ServicesSeasonal Assessments
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8-17-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
• Weather briefings• Daily summaries of NWS fire weather forecasts• Long term precipitation monitoring• Smoke management summaries• Spot forecasts for planned burns and smoke
management (California)• IMET or technical specialist support by qualified
GACC meteorologists
Predictive ServicesOther Products and Services
8-18-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
National Weather Service• Consists of over 120 offices • Has a variety of operational programs,
including fire weather
8-19-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Products and Services
The Fire Weather Program:• A core suite of standardized fire weather
products• Consultation services for prevention,
suppression, and other land management activities
• Optional products at regional and local office discretion
• Products issued by core forecast staff at local office for fire weather service area (fire weather zones)
National Weather Service
8-20-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Products and ServicesThe Fire Weather Program
National Weather Service
8-21-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Fire Weather Planning ForecastNational Weather Service
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8-22-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Fire Weather Forecasts and Statements provided by the
National Weather Service• Fire Weather Planning Forecasts• NFDRS Forecasts • Smoke Management Forecasts• Spot Weather Forecasts• Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag
Warnings• Wildland Fire Danger Statements
8-23-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Fire Weather Planning Forecast• A narrative or tabular zone-type
product• Purpose:
– Pre-suppression for fire management– Initial attack readiness– Daily staffing levels– Prevention program
• Account for local topography• Is not site specific
National Weather Service
8-24-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Fire Weather Planning Forecast
FWF Elements Include:• Fire weather headlines and discussion• Sky and weather• Temperature• Relative humidity• Surface (20-foot) wind • 3 to 7 day outlook
National Weather Service
8-25-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Elements may include:• Haines Index• Ridge Top Winds• Mixing Heights• Transport Winds• Dispersion• Clearing Index• Chance of wetting rain (CWR)
Fire Weather Planning ForecastNational Weather Service
8-26-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Lightning Activity LevelLAL 1 – no thunderstorms
LAL 2 – isolated thunderstorms, light rainfallLAL 3 – widely scattered thunderstorms,
light to moderate rainfall
LAL 4 – scattered thunderstorms, moderate rainfall
LAL 5 – numerous thunderstorms, moderate to heavy rainfall
LAL 6 – same as LAL 3, but dry.
8-27-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Spot Weather Forecast• Spot Forecasts:
– site specific – issued to fit time,
topography and weather of a specific location
• Used for:– wildfires– prescribed burns– spray projects– hazmat situations – other special projects
National Weather Service
8-28-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
NWS Spot– national standard for spot requests– request/reply web program– should be used when possible
Spot Weather ForecastNational Weather Service
8-29-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Spot Weather Forecast Request Form
National Weather Service
• Request Form includes:–Project name–Requesting agency–Location –Fuel type–Observations–Forecast elements–Remarks–Submit
8-29-S290-EP
8-30-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Spot Weather Forecast Returned
Completed Spot Forecast– Valid time period– Topo maps of location– Location information– Elevation, aspect– Fuel type– Observations
National Weather Service
– Requested parameters
– Forecast• Discussion• Forecast
elements• Feedback
8-31-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Steps in Obtaining Good Spot Forecasts
• Take and record representative weather observations on the fire
• Complete the NWS Spot request form
• Transmit the NWS Spot request form
• Provide forecaster feedback on accuracy of forecast
National Weather Service
8-32-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch
National Weather Service
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8-33-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch
National Weather Service
The National Weather Service will issue awatch or warning
to alert fire and land managers of CRITICAL or RAPIDLY CHANGING
weather conditions that will potentially increase fire danger in a significant way.
8-34-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch
• Fire Weather Watch:– High potential for red flag event in 24-72 hours– May be issued in first 12 hour time period for dry
thunderstorms• Red Flag Warning:
– Issued to warn of an impending, or occurring red flag event
– Issued when confidence is high that red flag conditions will occur in 24 hours or less
National Weather Service
8-35-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch Criteria
• Criteria may be based on locally or regionally established thresholds
• General criteria may include high to extreme fire danger in combination with:– Dry lightning (Ignition is or will occur)– First lightning after an extremely dry period
National Weather Service
8-36-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch Criteria
– Unusually low relative humidity– Very dry and unstable air (high Haines)– Very strong and shifting winds that may or
may not be associated with a cold front
National Weather Service
8-37-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Smoke Management Forecast• Content may include:
– Discussion– Transport winds– Mixing height– Stability– Dispersion
• Local Fire Management and NWS should establish content, format, and frequency of issuance
National Weather Service
8-38-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Retrieving Fire Weather InformationInternet and other Communication
• Main Sources Fire Weather Products:– Predictive Services web sites– National Predictive Services Homepage– Local NWS web sites– National Weather Service Homepage
• Alternative Sources– Phone or radio communications from
interagency dispatch center
8-39-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Retrieving Fire Weather InformationReal-time Observation Monitor and
Analysis Network (ROMAN)
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8-40-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Retrieving Fire Weather InformationReal-time Observation Monitor and
Analysis Network (ROMAN)
• ROMAN– Weather observation retrieval web
application
– Simple menu system– Data displayed on regional or local scale
8-41-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Incident MeteorologistOn-Site Weather Support
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8-42-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Incident MeteorologistOn-Site Weather Support
• Include NWS, land management, or state meteorologists
• Issue incident specific forecasts• Give weather briefings• Collect weather information
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8-44-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
NWS Incident Meteorologist Technology
• Atmospheric Theodolite Meteorological Unit (ATMU)– Upper air observing – PIBAL and Theodolite
On-Site Weather Support
8-45-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
NWS Incident Meteorologist Technology
– High speed two-way satellite dish for data transmitting and receiving
– All Hazards Meteorological Response System (AMRS)
On-Site Weather Support
8-46-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Fire Behavior Analyst• Fire Behavior Analyst (FBAN)
– Calculates predicted fire behavior– Produces fire behavior forecast
8-47-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Fire Behavior Analyst and Incident Meteorologist
• IMET works for FBAN• IMET prepares detailed forecast• FBAN then prepares fire behavior forecast
FBAN IMET
8-48-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Fire Behavior Forecast
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8-49-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Fire Behavior Forecast• Prepared by FBA• Meets needs of the fire overhead
organization• The Product:
– Interprets wildland fire calculations– Describes past and expected wildland fire
behavior – Identifies hazards due to wildland fire for
ground and aircraft activities
8-50-S290-EPUnit 8 Keeping Current with Fire Weather
Unit 8 Objectives1. Identify the types, purpose, and elements of
Predictive Service products. 2. Identify the types, purpose, and elements of
National Weather Service products.3. Identify ways in which firefighters can
receive fire weather products and weather observations.
4. Describe the importance of Incident Meteorologists (IMET) and Fire Behavior Analysts (FBAN) on wildland fires.