W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C OU N C I L

Use of EDWG Data by the LTPT

WECC StaffJanuary 15, 2016

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What is the LTPT?

The LTPT - Long Term Planning Tool:• Is a capital expansion tool • 20 year study horizon • Evaluating potential energy future

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LTPT

• LTPT comprised of:– SCDT-Study Case Development Tool– NXT-Network Expansion Tool

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SCDT

• SCDT - Study Case Development Tool– Produce Study Case– Optimized study case representing potential

“energy future”– Comprised of reduced nodal network model– Transmission expansion candidate lines– Transmission capital cost– Minimum cost generation optimization-decision

factors, constraints

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NXT

• NXT - Network Expansion Tool– Relieves candidate lines for four system conditions

Heavy Summer, Light Spring, Light Fall, Heavy Winter, oveloaded, loss of load etc

– Optimized transmission network expansion– Mitigating engineering constraints– Grid cost components applicable to study case

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LTPT Process Workflow

Perform Modeling

No

Yes

Define Scenarios to be examined in narrative

Parameterize Scenarios / Sensitivities

Does Parameterization affect

Scenario narrative?

Are results reasonable?

No Yes Select ‘no regrets’ investments; decide other

recommendations

Compare Scenario results based on pre-determined Metrics

Are sensitivities of Scenarios

required?

Yes

No

Define Metrics to be used to evaluate

Scenario/Sensitivity results

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10-Year & 20-Year Planning Comparison

Attribute 10-Year Studies 20-Year Studies

Tool Production Cost Model Capital Expansion Model

Objective Minimization Production Cost Capital CostFocus Capacity additions and specific

projects, planned and in progressUnderstanding potential “energy futures” and decisions needed to achieve those futures

Model decides to Dispatch Generation Build Gen and TransmissionLoad From balancing authorities w/

stakeholder adjustmentFrom balancing authorities w/ stakeholder adjustment

Resources Stakeholder specific Stakeholder specific and LTPT optimized

Transmission Stakeholder specific Stakeholder specific and LTPT optimized

Time Granularity Hourly / Sub-hourly Annual / Seasonal Load Durations

Interdependence Starting point of 20-Year Informs 10-Year

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EDWG Data in LTPT

• EDWG Data in LTPT– Transmission route finding input– No Siting– More realistic cost estimate– Environmental Risk– Line weighting-Financial Element

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Risk Weightings

• EDWG Risk Category Weightings– Think of the weighting similar to miles

• Staying in the fairway.• Avoiding hazards.• Minimizing strokes.

Traversing the geospatial landscape

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Overlay EDWG and Transmission Candidate Cooridors

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• Build cost surfaces• Bend corridor

routing to minimize environmental impact.

Optimize Corridors

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Transmission Models and Assumptions• Start with TEPPC 2024 Power Flow Model• Delineate load and generation hubs.• Perform Network Reduction, preserving interface and CCTA

transmission lines.• Define aggregation zones delineated by WECC Paths.• Define list of monitored lines based on aggregation zones.• Define transmission technology types and characteristics.• Define list of candidate corridors based on tiered rules.• Optimize corridor routing

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Economic Models and Assumptions• Fuel Prices

– Henry Hub per EIA Annual Energy Outlook (converted to 2014 dollars)

– Differentials by state– Progress multipliers per E3 Capital Cost Tool/Report

• Resource Types & Costs– Capital Cost: E3 Capital Cost Tool (“E3 Tool”),

TEPPC approved– Future types & Progress multipliers - 2027 Vintage

per E3 Tool– Simplified LCOE Model - E3 Tool

• Policy– CO2 Price: $37.11/MT

• Per stakeholder input – Metric Definition Task Force (MDTF)

– No PTC, Solar ITC reduced to 10%• Per E3 forecast of federal policy

– Coal constraints per stakeholder input

EIA – U.S. Energy Information AdministrationAEO – Annual Energy OutlookDG – Distributed GenerationRPS – Renewable Portfolio StandardNREL – National Renewable Energy Laboratory

• Transmission Costso Per TEPPC Capital Cost Update: B&V

analysis/report and tool, with stakeholder review/approval

o Includes Transmission and Substation Costs

o Cost Factors Include: EquipmentTerrain ROW AFUDC Breakers Transformers Voltage Compensation

o LCOE per E3 “levelization calculation”(E3 Captial Cost Tool)

PTC – Production Tax CreditITC – Investment Tax Credit

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Focus on Inter-regional needs

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Tool Enhancements

• Introduction of Corridor Library• Parameterized Goals• Parameterized Constraints• Co-optimization across seasonal and load level

conditions• Improved reduced network model