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USER NEEDS FROM A GHG INVENTORY PERSPECTIVEUSER NEEDS FROM A GHG INVENTORY PERSPECTIVE**
UNECE Task Force on Climate Change Statistics
19-20 November 2012, Geneva
Ricardo Fernandez
European Environment Agency
* Background paper: ‘User needs of climate change statistics from a greenhouse gas inventory perspective: Gaining support for improved NSO involvement’
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I. Objective and typology of user-needs [compilers, reviewers and analysts]
II. Quality principles in GHG inventories [what does quality mean?]
III. National inventory systems [how to ensure quality]
IV. International review under UNFCCC/KP [who ‘rubber-stamps’ quality]
V. Improving/enhancing the role of NSOs in GHG inventories: examples for the energy sector
VI. Summary/conclusions
Outline of the presentationOutline of the presentation
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Objective: To provide a short overview of user needs from a GHG inventory perspective and give you some examples of the role of NSOs to meeting those needs
Typology of user needs:
• GHG inventory compilers: provision/sharing of quality AD to estimate EM
• GHG inventory reviewers: flagging quality improvements in ARRs [quality of CO2 EM in the energy sector = quality of AD]
• GHG/climate mitigation analysts: complexity (ERTs) vs. simplicity [policy makers, journalists, general public]
I. Objective and typology of user-needsI. Objective and typology of user-needs
NSOs already connected to the inventory world - UNECE survey in 2011 shows … 36 NSOs are involved in GHG inventories (>75%) 19 NSOs are involved in providing source data 11 NSOs participate in GHG calculations 6 NSOs are responsible for reporting GHG inventories
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Quality principles are defined in the UNFCCC Reporting Guidelines (TACCC) http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/cop8/08.pdf
i. Transparency: Clear assumptions and methodologies
ii. Accuracy: unbiased estimates reflecting true emissions (no systematic error) + reduce uncertainty (improve precision)
iii. Consistency: Over all its elements and over time (time series)
iv. Comparability: Spatial, through agreed IPCC methodologies
v. Completeness: [All countries] + all sectors + all gases + all years
Because the EU is the sum of its MS, the quality of EU GHG estimates reflects the quality of MS GHG estimates!
II. What does quality mean? II. What does quality mean?
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a. Legal basis ‘EU GHG Monitoring Mechanism Decision’ - EU is Party to UNFCCC/KP and coordinates with 27 MS
b. Institutional arrangements ‘EU National System’ - internal set-up to deliver high quality GHG inventories
c. WG1 Climate Change Committee - forum to discuss compilation and review activities + quality improvements [all 27 MS & EU National System]
d. The EU’s QA/QC Programme & Plan - Who does what, when and how in the EU’s National System?
III. How to ensure quality, at EU level?III. How to ensure quality, at EU level?
Institutions in the EU’s National System Roles/responsibilities (more detail in QA/QC Plan)
European Environment Agency [EEA, Copenhagen]
Inventory Agency: coordination role in compilation & implementation of QA/QC Programme
European Topic Centre on Air Pollution & Climate Change Mitigation [Vienna]
Technical compilation & QA/QC Plan [EEA’s right hand]
DG CLIMA, European Commission [Brussels] Official submission to UNFCCC on behalf of the EU + National System, Registry information
DG Joint Research Centre, European Commission [Ispra]
Agriculture and LULUCF
DG Eurostat, European Commission [Luxembourg]
IPCC reference approach CO2 emissions fossil fuel combustion & quality of energy statistics
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International reviews under UNFCCC/KP : the quality of a GHG inventory is reviewed annually by independent group of experts from Annex I and non-Annex I Parties to UNFCCC ~ very thorough reviews!
Reviews show that quality depends on well functioning national systems*:
a) Planning ~ e.g. allocate responsibilities and ensure sufficient capacity & establish a QA/QC Plan and define quality objectives
b) Preparation ~ e.g. estimate GHG emissions/removals using appropriate methods (IPCC) & collect sufficient activity data and EFs
c) Management ~ e.g. documentation/archiving & responding to questions during UNFCCC reviews
*More info on National Systems: Decision 19/CMP.1, Guidelines for national systems under Article 5, para 1 of the Kyoto Protocol
GHG Inventory cannot be perfect but needs to reflect continuous quality improvements!
IV. Who ’rubber-stamps’ quality in emission inventories? IV. Who ’rubber-stamps’ quality in emission inventories?
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The quality of the energy balances is fundamental > Energy sector = 80% of total GHG emissions
Examples of current/potential involvement by NSOs to improve AD quality
Eurostat’s role in the EU’s national system IPCC Reference Approach [top down, fuel based]
Sectorial Approach [bottom up, using harmonised energy balances reported under the EU Energy statistics Regulation]
Improvements in the quality of energy statistics
Consistency of energy balances (ESR) and inventory data (CRF)
Key category analysis [most important emission/sink sources in a country] ~ easy to know where to focus quality improvements
Data sharing among all institutions concerned is essential! inventory compilers need access to all relevant data for a good quality inventory
V.i Examples of user needs during compilation in the energy V.i Examples of user needs during compilation in the energy sector: AD to estimate emissionssector: AD to estimate emissions
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FUEL TYPES
Apparent energy
consumptionCO2 emissions
Energy consumption
CO2 emissions Energy
consumption CO2 emissions
(PJ) (PJ) (Gg) (PJ) (Gg) (%) (%)
Liquid Fuels (excluding international bunkers)
21,344.29 18,576.91 1,355,601.69 17,806.11 1,298,192.68 4.33 4.42
Solid Fuels (excluding international bunkers)
7,257.59 7,235.17 685,676.72 6,737.75 696,257.09 7.38 -1.52
Gaseous Fuels 15,355.88 15,183.49 847,534.97 15,248.89 834,265.24 -0.43 1.59
Other NO NE NA,NO 745.01 55,433.19 -100.00 -100.00
Total 43,957.75 40,995.57 2,888,813.39 40,537.76 2,884,148.21 1.13 0.16
REFERENCE APPROACH SECTORAL APPROACH DIFFERENCE
Apparent energy
consumption (excluding non-energy use and
feedstocks)
Consistency of energy balances and AD in GHG inventories (crucial!)Consistency of energy balances and AD in GHG inventories (crucial!)
EU Energy Statistics Regulation [ESR] ~ consistency energy balance & activity data in CRFsEU Energy Statistics Regulation [ESR] ~ consistency energy balance & activity data in CRFs
Art. 6.2 ‘Every reasonable effort shall be undertaken to ensure coherence between energy data declared in Art. 6.2 ‘Every reasonable effort shall be undertaken to ensure coherence between energy data declared in accordance with Annex B and data declared in accordance with Commission Decision 2005/166/EC of 10 accordance with Annex B and data declared in accordance with Commission Decision 2005/166/EC of 10 February 2005 laying down the rules for implementing Decision No 280/2004/EC of the European Parliament February 2005 laying down the rules for implementing Decision No 280/2004/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community greenhouse gas emissions and for and of the Council concerning a mechanism for monitoring Community greenhouse gas emissions and for implementing the Kyoto Protocol’.implementing the Kyoto Protocol’.
EU-15
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Tier 1 Key category analysis: prioritising inventory improvements > Tier 1 Key category analysis: prioritising inventory improvements > focus where it makes a difference! [tier 2 includes uncertainty]focus where it makes a difference! [tier 2 includes uncertainty]
1990 2010 1990 2010
1 A 1 a Public Electricity and Heat Production: Solid Fuels (CO2) 752,876 555,893 T L L 97% 14.6%
1 A 3 b Road Transportation: Diesel oil (CO2) 268,209 501,330 T L L 90% 13.2% 27.8%
1 A 1 a Public Electricity and Heat Production: Gaseous Fuels (CO2) 60,401 261,344 T L L 95% 6.9% 34.7%
1 A 4 b Residential: Gaseous Fuels (CO2) 161,967 252,378 T L L 90% 6.6% 41.4%
1 A 3 b Road Transportation: Gasoline (CO2) 362,649 235,947 T L L 86% 6.2% 47.6%
1 A 4 b Residential: Liquid Fuels (CO2) 169,658 128,748 T L L 95% 3.4% 51.0%
1 A 2 f Other: Gaseous Fuels (CO2) 91,723 113,609 T L L 96% 3.0% 54.0%
1 A 4 a Commercial/Institutional: Gaseous Fuels (CO2) 60,058 105,089 T L L 95% 2.8% 56.7%
4 A 1 Cattle: (CH4) 115,585 102,332 L L 100% 2.7% 59.4%
1 A 1 b Petroleum refining: Liquid Fuels (CO2) 96,256 100,541 T L L 99% 2.6% 62.1%
4 D 1 Direct Soil Emissions: (N2O) 113,326 94,285 T L L 35% 2.5% 64.6%
1 A 2 f Other: Liquid Fuels (CO2) 116,510 83,616 T L L 96% 2.2% 66.8%
1 A 2 a Iron and Steel: Solid Fuels (CO2) 112,264 81,874 T L L 100% 2.2% 68.9%
6 A 1 Managed Waste disposal on Land: (CH4) 125,218 73,718 T L L 98% 1.9% 70.9%
2 A 1 Cement Production: (CO2) 80,174 64,532 T L L 72% 1.7% 72.6%
4 D 3 Indirect Emissions: (N2O) 80,498 64,207 T L L 31% 1.7% 74.2%
2 F 1 Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Equipment : (HFC) 84 56,476 T L 89% 1.5% 75.7%
1 A 4 c Agriculture/Forestry/Fisheries: Liquid Fuels (CO2) 56,845 49,212 L L 38% 1.3% 77.0%
1 A 4 a Commercial/Institutional: Liquid Fuels (CO2) 74,142 43,687 T L L 100% 1.2% 78.2%
2 C 1 Iron and Steel Production: (CO2) 47,059 37,961 T L L 90% 1.0% 79.2%
1 A 1 a Public Electricity and Heat Production: Liquid Fuels (CO2) 123,602 35,848 T L L 97% 0.9% 80.1%
1 A 1 a Public Electricity and Heat Production: Other Fuels (CO2) 12,913 35,647 T L L 96% 0.9% 81.1%
Total GHG emissions excluding LULUCF 4,249,345 3,797,613 100.0%
share in total GHG
emissions
Cumulative share in total GHG
emissions
Source category by gas, EU-15
Gg CO2 equ.
Trend
Level
share of higher
Tier
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Energy sector, IPCC Reference Approach for CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion (mandatory in UNFCCC Reporting)
What about other sectors? Industrial processes, Waste, Agriculture and LULUCF
Can there be a role for NSOs? e.g. to provide a third party ‘verification’ of activity data / emissions provided by MS on a sectorial bases [Eurostat could be instrumental for the EU’s QA/QC perspective]
Potential role for NSOs during compilation, linked to QA/QC – Potential role for NSOs during compilation, linked to QA/QC – verification of emission estimatesverification of emission estimates
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Annual Review Reports [ARRs] are the best source of information to motivate improvements in data quality
http://unfccc.int/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inventories/inventory_review_reports/items/6048.php
GHG inventory agency coordinates input by institutions in the national system
If NSO is not in the national system > be proactive if issue/s flagged in ARRs fall under NSO competence
2 examples of relevant recommendations to improving the quality of AD [ARRs 2011 cycle] Consistency between energy balances and GHG inventory activity data
Consistency between energy balances and data reported under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS)
V.ii Examples of user needs during review: to ensure V.ii Examples of user needs during review: to ensure continuous quality improvementscontinuous quality improvements
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Link energy balances and CRF activity dataLink energy balances and CRF activity data
In some countries, the ERTs can facilitate communication and/or sharing of information between different institutions
GHG inventory compilers need to be able do their job [should have
access to all relevant data for the estimation of emissions]
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Link energy balances and EU ETS activity dataLink energy balances and EU ETS activity data
ETS activity data is not always available to energy balance & inventory compilers
Improving the consistency between ETS, energy balances and CRF activity data is essential [e.g. EU-target setting assumes consistency
of ETS and inventory data]
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GHG inventories are really complex: inventory compilers and reviewers understand them!
GHG inventories cannot answer everything about climate change, and aren’t designed for policy makers, journalists or the general public.
Some examples of questions by journalists are: What about the role of renewables, and nuclear? Are biomass emissions carbon neutral? What about carbon intensity and energy efficiency? Is the economic recession reducing emissions? Is the EU ETS reducing emissions? Are warmer winters leading to lower heating demand and emissions? What about embedded carbon / exported emissions? This was 2 years ago (!), what about last year or this year?
The inventory alone cannot answer these questions! additional data usually collected by NSOs
V.iii Examples of user needs for a wider audienceV.iii Examples of user needs for a wider audience
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Why did emissions decline despite of increased electricity/heat generation?Why did emissions decline despite of increased electricity/heat generation?
Overall fuel use somewhat stable but emissions fell! Overall fuel use somewhat stable but emissions fell!
Less coal (101 tCOLess coal (101 tCO22/TJ) & liquid (77 tCO/TJ) & liquid (77 tCO22/TJ). More gas (56 tCO/TJ). More gas (56 tCO22/TJ) & biomass (CO/TJ) & biomass (CO22 Memo) Memo)Role of non carbon fuels (?) > Non-combustible fuels aren’t reported in GHG inventoriesRole of non carbon fuels (?) > Non-combustible fuels aren’t reported in GHG inventories
Source: EEA
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Total economy [Eurostat’s] energy balance: nuclear and renewables also Total economy [Eurostat’s] energy balance: nuclear and renewables also played a significant role [and not just fossil fuels=inventory]played a significant role [and not just fossil fuels=inventory]
Source: by EEA based on Eurostat’s energy balances
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What is the share of household emissions, or transport? What is the share of household emissions, or transport?
… on an end-user basis [not UNFCCC!], the picture changes completely – this would not be possible without Eurostat’s energy statistics
… on an UNFCCC-reporting basis, households/services look ‘too good’
Source: EEA method. GHG emissions, EEA, Energy balances, EurostatSource: EEA
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GDP/recession, other factors? Difficult to explain reality without these factorsGDP/recession, other factors? Difficult to explain reality without these factors
Source: by EEA, based on Eurostat’s energy balances, national economic accounts and population statistics.
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GHG inventories run on t-2 (not timely!): ‘competition’ with socio-economic GHG inventories run on t-2 (not timely!): ‘competition’ with socio-economic data, ETS …. running on t-1 > EEA developed ‘proxy’ emission estimates in t-1data, ETS …. running on t-1 > EEA developed ‘proxy’ emission estimates in t-1
No apparent link (on average in the EU)
Significantly warmer winter-months in 2011 (December 2010 very cold!)
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The EU National System would not function properly without the work of Eurostat [… and other NSOs in MS]
Eurostat’s current role in the EU NS is essential during compilation & review:
IPCC Reference Approach, Sectorial Approach, Energy Statistics Regulation [quality & consistency between energy balances and CRF activity data]
Eurostat’s future role in the EU NS can (should) also increase: Capacity building to EU MS to improve the quality of the energy balances Helping improving the consistency of ETS AD and the energy balances [e.g. legally
‘encouraging’ data sharing between agencies] Provision of timely socio-economic data for trend analysis [GDP, population, heating
degree days, cooling degree days …] Verification of MS AD in all sectors reported in GHG inventories [i.e. third Party
verification similar to the IPCC Reference Approach for energy] Formalising institutional relations (NS) can provide certainty about the roles
and responsibilities [& visibility] + NSOs in NS may also increase ‘public trust’
The key objective remains good quality GHG inventories!
5. Summary/conclusions … own reflections5. Summary/conclusions … own reflections
