Using Technology Roadmapping for the Development of a Sustainable Information Society

Dr Ralf Isenmann- Senior researcher, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI), Karlsruhe (Germany)and

- Associate professor, University of Bremen (Germany) Institute for Project Management and Innovation (IPMI)Research Center for Sustainability Studies (artec)

Email: ralf.isenmann@isi.fraunhofer.de

Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI), Karlsruhe (Germany)

Introduction to Technology Roadmapping

ICT-ENSURE for Environmental Sustainability

Agenda

C SU o o e ta Susta ab tyResearch

The Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) …

… is one of the leading institutions for scientific and applied research

investigates innovations, innovation systems and innovation management (technologies, products, services, actors, drivers etc.)

evaluates potentials, impacts and limits of technical innovations in terms of economic, environmental, social and political consequences

supports decision-makers in industry, science and politics in foresight and strategieshandles about 250 research projects per year

The Fraunhofer ISI covers 7 interrelated Competence Centers …

Policy and RegionsBusiness Areas:• Policy and Evaluation• Regions and Clusters• Innovation Indicators

Regulation and InnovationBusiness Areas:• Regulation• Standardization

Energy Policyand Energy Systems Business Areas:• Energy and Climate Policy• Energy Efficiency

R bl E i

Sustainability and Infrastructure Systems Business Areas:• Water Management• Transportation Systems

S t i Ri k • Renewable Energies• Energy Economy

• Systemic Risks• Sustainability Innovations

and Policy

Industrial and Service Innovations Business Areas:• Process Innovations• Industrial Services• Networks and

Location Management

Innovation and TechnologyManagement and Foresight

Business Areas:• Foresight and Futures Research• Management of Innovations and Technologies• Strategies for Material Technologies

Emerging TechnologiesBusiness Areas:• Biotechnology and Life Sciences• Innovations in the Health System• Information and

Communications Technologies• Economics of Emerging

Technologies

Introduction to Technology Roadmapping

T h l R d i ICT ENSURE C l iTechnology Roadmapping – ICT-ENSURE –Conclusions

There is a straightforward analogy …

Develop industry guidelines on how to pervert melt loss

Optimize vacuum or inert gas to prevent oxidation

Lowcost inclusion meter

Research to develop cavity-free sows

Develop improved filtration mechanisms

Develop new secondary alloys

Develop continuous micro scalping

Develop a melting & casting plant for the future

Develop an NMP outlet Develop a process for better separation of metal from dross and salt cake

Continuous high productivity thin strip casting process

IN-H

OUSE

CO

MPA

NY R

&D

INDU

STRY

COL

LABO

RATI

VE

NEAR (0-3 YEARS) LONG (>10 YEARS)MID (3-10 YEARS)

, /

Develop university and industry consortium to examine integrated production system

Means to remove Mg, U from melt

From a cooperative continuous casting consortium

Non-contact sensors that measure shell thickness and surface temperature

Develop means for removing specific impurities from melt

Fundamentals of solidfloation modeling

Develop a non-contact sensor and method to identify and separate scrap

Lowcost process for alloy / scrap purify-cation and upgrade

Improve under-standing of oxidation preventing mechanisms

Modify furnaces to improve fuel efficiency and reduce NOx emissions

Develop high capacity furnace prototype for the future (pilot)

Detector for moisture and non-metallic impurities in charge to furnace

Determine/understand mechanisms causing Al-water explosions

GOV`

T –

INDU

STRY

PAR

TNER

SHIP

Top priority areas

Source: The Aluminium Association (1997)

Roadmapping provides a method for foresight. It could be used as a lense …

Information structure

Graphicalstyle

Roadmap‘lens’Business /

strategic issueUnderstanding & communication

Information structure

Graphicalstyle

Roadmap‘lens’Business /

strategic issueUnderstanding & communication

, /

Quelle: EIRMA (1998)

Quelle: http://www.roadmap-it.de

Develop indust ry guidel ines on how to pervert melt loss

Opt imize vacuum or inert gas to prevent oxidat ion

Lowcost inclusion meter

Research to develop cavity-f ree sow s

Develop university and indust ry consort ium to examine integrated product ion system

Means to remove Mg, U f rom melt

From a cooperat ive cont inuous cast ing consort ium

Develop improved fil t rat ion mechanisms

Develop new secondary al loys

Develop continuous micro scalping

Develop a melting & cast ing plant for the future

Develop an NMP out letDevelop a process for bet ter separat ion of metal from dross and salt cake

Continuous high product ivity thin st rip cast ing process

Non-contact sensors that measure shell thickness and surface temperature

Develop means for removing specific impurities f rom melt

Fundamentals of solidf loation modeling

Develop a non-contact sensor and method to identi fy and separate scrap

Lowcost process for alloy / scrap puri fy-cat ion and upgrade

Improve under-standing of oxidat ion prevent ing mechanisms

Modify furnaces to improve fuel ef ficiency and reduce NOx emissions

Develop high capacity furnace prototype for the future (pilot )

Detector for moisture and non-metall ic impurities in charge to

Determine/understand mechanisms causing

IN-H

OUSE

COM

PANY

R&D

I N

DUST

RY C

OLLA

BORA

TIVE

G O

V`T

– I N

DUST

RY P

ARTN

ERSH

IP

NEAR (0 -3 YEARS) LON G (> 1 0 YEARS)M I D (3-10 YEARS)

Type 4: Industry sectorType 2: Technology Type 3: Organization

Roadmaps have been created for different purposes …

Quelle: Groenveld (1997)

p p

Quelle: http://www.tcwk.de/home.html (2005)

Type 5: Knowledge

impurities in charge to furnace

gAl-w ater explosions To p p rio ri t y ar e as

Quelle: The Aluminium Association (1997)Type 1: Products

… and roadmaps can take various forms … … its use has even reached the political agenda …

Example: Roadmap for Peace in the Middle East

(Source: http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/rls/22520.htm)

Roadmaps combine multiple perspectives and suggests a structured procedure …

Past Short-term Medium-term Long-term Vision

Time

Market

Business

Product

Functional perspectives(Roadmap

architecture)

Route(s) forward

Knowledge types

When?

Pull

Information types

DriversStrategy

Needs

FormFunction

Why?

Roadmap framework(Supports integrated and aligned strategic and innovation planning)

Typical viewpoints

commercial & strategic

perspectives

Design, development

Past Short-term Medium-term Long-term Vision

Time

Market

Business

Product

Functional perspectives(Roadmap

architecture)

Route(s) forward

Knowledge types

When?

Pull

Information types

DriversStrategy

Needs

FormFunction

Why?

Roadmap framework(Supports integrated and aligned strategic and innovation planning)

Typical viewpoints

commercial & strategic

perspectives

Design, development

, /

Service

System

Technology

ScienceResources

What?

How?

Push

FunctionPerformance

SolutionsCapabilitiesResources

Three key questions: 2. Where are we now?

3 How can we get there?

1 Where do wewant to go?

development & production perspectives

Technology & research

perspectives

Service

System

Technology

ScienceResources

What?

How?

Push

FunctionPerformance

SolutionsCapabilitiesResources

Three key questions: 2. Where are we now?

3 How can we get there?

1 Where do wewant to go?

development & production perspectives

Technology & research

perspectives

Source: Phaal (2007)

Roadmapping: moving from a divergent process to a convergent process

? ?

?

? ?

Subcarrier function

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991Year

Tuning Push button Push button - Synthesizers Touch pad - Synthesizers Voice actuated

Selectivity Ceramic resonators SAWs Digital signal processors

Stereo Paging Data Maps

IC technology Linear 5u CMOS 3u CMOS 1u CMOS

Display LEDs Liquid crystal Fluorescence

Vehicular LAN Single wire Glass fibre

Digital modulation 500 kHz bandwidth

PRODUCTS

RECEIVER 1 RECEIVER 2 RECEIVER 3 NEXT GENERATION FUTURE GENERATION

Stereo Plus: Plus: Plus:

Stock market

A NEW SERVICE

?Scan

Seek

Personal paging

Stock market Road information Remote amplifiers Remote controls

Super Hi Fi

Local maps

Divergent process Convergent process

Explore Shape Plan Implement

Roadmapping is often processed and carried out in workshop acitivities

ICT-ENSURE: Roadmap for Environmental Sustainability

T h l R d i ICT ENSURETechnology Roadmapping – ICT-ENSURE

WPs WPs WPs WPs… …

1 Identification of actors: Networks, communities, experts in selected areas of relevance for ICT-ENSURE

ICT-ENSURE: Fuelling the Roadmapping in areas relevant for ICT-ENSURE

Route(s) forwardRoute(s) forward

2 Analysis of actions: Research programmes, projects, actionsin selected areas of relevance for ICT-ENSURE

Single InformationSpace Europe

Goal: Enlargement of the Environmental Informatics Community

Effort: Capacity buildingGoal: Structured research mape.g. web-based database, RPIS

Time

European Research Area for ICT-ENSURE

Thank you for your attention!

... time for discussion and further questions ...

Any comments and feedback are most welcome!

Dr Ralf Isenmann

Senior researcher ISIFraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) Breslauer Strasse 4876139 Karlsruhe, Germanywww.isi.fraunhofer.deEmail: ralf.isenmann@isi.fraunhofer.de

and

Associate professorUniversity of BremenInstitute for Project Management and InnovationCenter for Sustainability Studies (artec)

, /

Guest Editors:Martin G. Moehrle, Ralf Isenmann

Special Issue Vol. 4(2) 2008

Further reading … (i) to Technology Roadmapping …

Special Issue Vol. 4(2) 2008

From Technology Roadmapping toOperational Innovation Planning

… (ii) to a Sustainable Information Society … … (iii) to the role of ICT for Environmental Sustainability Research

The relationship: information society-sustainability does not seem to be clear: Puzzle picture?

Opportunities for sustainability: ICT can provide unique opportunities for environmental sustainability:

- helping to dematerialise economic processes

- reduce material and energy throughput.

Information society: Opportunities for sustainability a n d (!) danger to accelerate unsustainability.

However: ICT do not automatically contribute to environmental sustainability, though:Rapid progress and ubiquitous use create new problems for individuals, society and nature, e.g.:

- Electronic waste,

- high consumption of resources for PC manufacturing

- energy consumption for running the internet.

Status quo: ICT do bring about new opportunities and new problems:

- Fears need to be taken seriously and accepted as indicators for risks, without giving in to pessimism and panic.

- Opportunities that ICT offer merit exploitation.

Key findings (i)

Need for reserch and action: We need to assess and manage opportunities a n d risks of ICT,

but how?on what basis?

(discourse, multi-stakeholder forums, experts vs. public participation?)

Proposal: Developments towards a sustainable information society have to be based on three fundamental categories of criteria:

- Human compatibility: individuals

- Social compatibility: communities

Key findings (ii)

- Ecological compatibility: nature

Further, three different levels of impacts need to be taken into account:

- Effects of ICT provision

- Effects of ICT use

- Systemic effects

ICT will play a key role in the development towards a sustainable information society.

Only if both discourses, on information society and suatianability are systematically combined, a „window of opportunity“ will be opened to approach a long-term liveable future.

The challenge consists of winning the hearts and minds of

Key findings (iii)

The challenge consists of winning the hearts and minds of ICT experts and decision makers for sustainability.

Conceptual approach: Two-dimensional grid covering: (i) fundamental criteria for sustainability (columns) and (ii) different levels of ICT impacts (rows).

Humancompatibility

Socialcompatibility

Ecologicalcompatibility

X X XEffects of ICT provision

... regardingto ...

Level of ICTimpacts ...

X X X

X X X

Effects of ICT use

Systemiceffects

Fundamental criteria for sustainability (dimension 1):

- Human compatibility:Individuals should not suffer damages from development. Their personal dignity must be respected.

- Social compatibility:Relationships of people with one another and the resulting society

The columns cover three fundamental criteria for sustainability ...

Relationships of people with one another and the resulting society should not be infringed. Individual participation in our communities needs to be protected and supported.

- Ecological compatibility:The natural environment must not be irreversibly damaged, and our life support systems must be protected.

Classification of ICT impacts (dimension 2):

- Effects of ICT provisione.g., use of resources and energy in the manufacturing, use, and disposal of ICT hardware.

- Effects of ICT usee g energy savings from process optimisation or commuter traffic reduction as a result

The rows classify three different levels of ICT impacts ...

e.g., energy savings from process optimisation or commuter traffic reduction as a result of telecommunication.

- Systemic effectse.g., rebound effects as a reaction to efficiency gains, changes of economic structures, institutions, and consequences for individual lifestyles.