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(potential) wild cards as future shakers and shapers
early and weak warning signals
PresentationFor the: Governmental Forum - Abu Dhabi-
24-25 November Session 1: “Weak signals and wild cards;
implications in different policies”
Victor van RijSenior Advisor Foresight
Ministry of Education, Culture and Science Netherlands
Presentation
Scanning of future horizons
The use of the wild card concept (within two FLA of EU)
EU FLA websitehttp://ec.europa.eu/research/social-sciences/forward-looking_en.html
EU FLA - Research projects Blue Sky project
Scanning for Emerging Science and Technology Issues (SESTI)
Use of foresight to align research with longer term policy needs in European Commission (FARHORIZON)
Visions, scenarios and implications for policy and practice (INFU)
Participative horizon scanning (CIVISTI)
Wild cards and weak signals (IKNOW)
Security and defence (SANDERA)
EU FLA - Research projects
European Foresight Platform – supporting Forward Looking decision-making (EFP)
The World and Europe in 2030 (AUGUR)
The future of the Mediterranean area (MEDPRO)
The evaluation of EU policies (DEMETER)
Post carbon society (PACT, GILDED, PASHMINA)
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Horizon scanningHorizon scanning
Horizon scanning as integrated approach
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Horizon scanning
Horizon scanning is an instrument to shape the future to (common) desires, needs after participative thinking and debating
Horizon scanning
Systematic Search for Issues with Potential high (Future) Impact on what we consider to be important
Issues are statements /narratives/storylines about the future, based on outcomes of research, trend analysis, scenario studies, weak or faint signal analysis but also on our imagination
Issues are therefore based on a mix of scientific knowledge and tacit knowledge including our imagination
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Issue dimensionsIMPACT : Issues that may have great or less great impact on what we see as important (seize of impact)
PROBABILITY & PLAUSIBILITY : Issues that are certain or less certain but still plausible (probability and plausibility)
DESIRABILITY : Issues that are desirable or not desirable for society (desirability, common or opposed values)
CHANGEABILITY : Issues that are not changeable or changeable by human action (changeability)
TIME : moment of observation , interaction, dynamics
Opportunities/solutions :Opportunities/solutions : Threats/problems from:Threats/problems from:
And Ecology,And Ecology,
EcosystemEcosystem
BiodiversityBiodiversity
Human:Human:
Survival , HealthSurvival , Health
Welfare, wealthWelfare, wealthWellbeingWellbeing
Democracy, lawDemocracy, law
Self-realizationSelf-realization
Culture, ethicsCulture, ethics
Physical environmentPhysical environment
Natural resources from Natural resources from
(Outer) Space, Sun(Outer) Space, Sun
SpaceSpace
Sea and watersSea and waters
Earth and soilEarth and soil
Atmosphere Climate Atmosphere Climate
Living worldLiving world
Physical environmentPhysical environment
Shortage/destruction/Shortage/destruction/
(Outer) Space(Outer) Space
SpaceSpace
Sea and waters Sea and waters
Earth and soilEarth and soil
Atmosphere climateAtmosphere climate
Living worldLiving world
Human action/brainpowerHuman action/brainpower
Science & TechnologyScience & Technology
EducationEducation
Social systemSocial system
Political, Government, legal, Political, Government, legal,
economy, financeeconomy, finance
Other Systems Other Systems (infrastructures, (infrastructures,
production, transport, ICT, production, transport, ICT, energy, industry, energy, industry,
healthcare, agriculture)healthcare, agriculture)
Human action/environmentHuman action/environment
Science, technologyScience, technology
Education Education
Social systemSocial system
Political, Government, legalPolitical, Government, legal
Economy, financeEconomy, finance
Systems (infrastructures, Systems (infrastructures, production, transport, ICT, production, transport, ICT,
energy, industry, health care, energy, industry, health care, agricultureagriculture))
COMMONCOMMON
LONG TERMLONG TERM
DESIRESDESIRES
& VALUES& VALUES
With expected With expected large impact onlarge impact on
society:society:
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certainty
desirability
changeability
Climate Change
Nuclear War
NBIC convergence
The Internet
Migration
Ageing society
Issues with Potential high Impact on what we consider to be important
wild cards
An event or serie (cascade) of events (with seemingly low probability?) that changes the settings of our world completely (causing high impactshocks/disruptions)
Which we hardly see coming or we do not want to see coming
Earth quakes of the mental landscape (Karlheinz Steinmuller), black swans (Nassim Nicholas Taleb)
They usually have immediate and enduring consequences
Wild cards
Rationalisation afterwardsAfter the fact, the event is rationalized by hindsight, as if it had been expected (Taleb) . Could we not have foreseen the event???Could we have done anything about it ????
Recent Examples
Flooding New Orleans
9 – 11 –
Financial crisis
Iceland Volcano
Oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico
Important distinctions
It is important to make distinction between
Wild cards that happenedAndEnvisioned (potential) Future Wild cards
------------------------------------------
Nature caused Wild(NWC)andHuman caused (HWC)
From wild cards that happened we can learnDifferent types
Tension building - almost invisible trends or sequence of events (DDT, Subprime loans)
Sudden unexpected events with a known very low or unknown probability but which we know will happen on basis of historical evidence (rare coincidence)
Sudden unexpected events wich may never occur but can be imagined and which if they happen have an unavoidable character
The unimaginable
News on public risks subprime loans sample on News google timeline
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
10019
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
years/quarters
arti
cles
Number of articles in sample
percentage not paying back(subprime/alt a)
Amount loaned subprime andalt-a (x100 million US dollars)
Financial crisis
Many sub prime loans gave 3 starting years with no interest
Tension building The financial crisisSubprime loans
early warning financial crisis - subprime/alt a and studentloans
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
10019
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
years
Number of articles relatingsubprime to emerging crisisin google news timeline
Number of articles relatingstudent loans to next crisis ingoogle news time line
Percentage subprime/alt-amortgages aborted
Total debt subprime/ alt-amortgages in 10.000 millions(CPB)
Interpolation Total debtstudent loans in 10.000millions (CNBC-America'sbiggest debts)
Tension building The financial crisisStudent loans
Total Student debt in US
Total Articles with worries for a crisis connected to student debt (google news timeline)
Natural caused wild cards (NWC)
•Laws of Nature , historical evidence , black swans
•The communication of potential wild cards is however a human activity which brings in aspects of social caused wild cards
•Wild card search from natural causes usually delivers an assembly of mainly potential negative challenges with a low probability but potential high impact.
•The “where” and “when” and “seize” of potential wild cards of this kind are usually very uncertain which also means that we can encounter many controversies on the probability estimation or duration and seize of the challenge like climate change
Human Caused Wild Cards (HWC)
Are the product of human ideas, emotions, interests, decisions and communication mostly in combination with ( perceived) facts
They can be realized
But can also be created (imagined)
They contain usually wishes and fears,
Powerful HWC influence the future debate, very powerful HWC influence the course of history (as self fullfilling or self denying prophecies)
Human Caused Wild Cards (HWC)
They are used by people who want to change the course of history atlarge as terrorists, political leaders , scientist for good and for bad
They can be powerful lobby- or propaganda tools to change the discourse on the future (warning, selling)
The shape , evoked emotions and facts make the strength of the wild card, but also the timing and context, the authority
Further study is needed on how they work and evolve , also because they can be used to create desirable futures
Horizonscanning of WC and in depth analysis (of roots-targets of HWC) both needed
Realized ones can successfully influence the (future) course of history
But imagined ones can be used as well as propaganda
as warning cards
as marketing cards
Nano saves our lives Bioinspired
nanotechnology creates nano -
vehicles for targeted drugs application and diagnosis. We will be able to cure cancer?
TECHNOLOGY and SCIENCE
“Signals” for HWC can be found everywhere where people create strong future storylines
All media contain signals , internet contains (almost) all media
HWC signals contain a mix of statements that evoke emotions, appeal interests and facts connected to the future.
Their initiation may be intended (The Day after Tomorrow or the Inconvenient Truth) but also unintended (rumour causing panic, financial crisis), so who is initiating, enhancing etc is important
Horizon scanning may enhance and create signals for Wild cards, therefore has the potential not only to inform decision makers but also to create new futures (by initiation of strong persuasive wild cards)
(Potential) wild cards can be used to make the world better but also as weapons in a world of conflict
Finding them needs understanding of emotions, facts and interests who is behind this (so the search of WS needs inter subjective-cultural assessment)
Gulf of Mexico incident
News Google timeline
Start of raising uncontrollable risk deep sea
drill
DESERTEC plans made
public
News Google timeline
What is the value of wild card search and thinkingMaking policies more resilient to the occurrence and the effects of wild card events (more adaptive to what could change suddenly)
Giving us hints on what kind of early (weak) signals to look for
Making us able to monitor the arrival/realisation of wild cards and to timely adapt or mitigate the impact by the monitoring of their early warning signals
Helping to support safety measure investments (like monitor systems , higher dikes, affluence measures for floods, earth quake proof building mechanisms, escape routes etc )
Counteracting undesirable human caused wild cards
Creating futures with positive wild cards
Rationalisation on forehandBefore the fact, the event has happened What can we foresee in parallel with the cases before???How can we spot wild cards that may come ??? Can we do anything about it ????
Examples Earthquake 8.0 Istanbul
Eruption of the Vesuvius
EC financial crisis
US credit card crisis , student loan crisis
Nuclear war from upcoming nations
New technologies resolving the energy crisis in a resolute way ??
New discoveries keeping us healthy and young while ageing??