IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

WGII: IMPACTS, ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY Istanbul – Turkey

Lučka Kajfež BogatajReview editor for WGII

Climate Change is a Large Issue

Majority of the sciences and engineering disciplines are involved.

Social sciences are interested.Business/Industry has a stake.Involves citizens, politicians, public policy experts,

and advocates.Every sector of the economy affected.All aspects of our lives touched:

environment, jobs, health, politics, national security, arts, religion, etc.

What is happening in the climate system?

What are the risks?

What can be done?

• The report evaluates how patterns of risk and potential benefits are shifting due to climate change, and considers how impacts and risks related to climate change can be reduced and managed through adaptation and mitigation

About WGII AR5

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

Impacts are already underway• Tropics to the poles• On all continents and in the ocean• Affecting rich and poor countries

(but the poor are more vulnerable everywhere)

AR5 WGII SPM

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

HUMAN INFLUENCE: Some changes in extreme weather and climate events observed since ~1950 are linked to human activity

AR5 WGI SPM

In a number of regions, impacts are already underway:

• decrease in cold temperature extremes

• increase in warm temperature extremes

• increase in extreme high sea levels

• increase in the number of heavy precipitation events

Global natural disasters 1980 – 2013Geophysical, meteorological, hydrological events

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

Projected climate changesContinued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in the climate system

Global glacier volume will further decrease

Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century

It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will continue to shrink and thin as global mean surface temperature rises

Oceans will continue to warm during the 21st century

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Projections Europe (RCP4.5)2081-2100 versus 1986-2005

Temperature (oC) Precipitation (%)

winter summer winter half summer half

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

Potential Impacts of Climate Change

Food and water shortages

Increased poverty

Increased displacement of people

Coastal flooding

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Climate Change impacts

Climate ChangeImpacts

Physical systems(ice, rivers, etc.)

Biological & seasonal cycles

Economy: infrastructure, output, growth

Stern Report (UK, 2006)

Human Well-being

Indirect impacts Wealth (and distribution);

local environment; etc.

Direct health impacts (heat, extreme events...)

Food yields

Impacts on natural ecosystems• shift of vegetation zones (belts) in a horizontal and vertical

direction• displacement and changes in the habitats of individual species

of flora and fauna, extinction of individual species• changes in the qualitative and quantitative mixture of

biocenosis• fragmentation of habitats• changes to ecosystem functioning

Impacts of sea level rise • Increased river and storm flooding • Accelerated coastal erosion – impacts on tourism• Seawater intrusion into coastal ground water –

salinization of fresh water• Encroachment of seawater into wetlands and

estuaries – destruction of habitats• Impacts on coastal installations.

• changes in phytoplankton communities • increased harmfull algal blooms (impacts on tourism) • spread of invasive species (impacts on biodiversity) • changes in population dynamics of commercial important

species (impact on fisheries)• impact on biodiversity (loss 15-37% of Mediterranean

species by 2050)

Impacts on marine systems

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

Climate Change Poses Risk for Food ProductionPe

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ield

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Climate change: A Multiplier for Instability

Facing the dangers from climate change……there are only three options:

Mitigation, meaning measures to reduce the pace & magnitude of the changes in global climate being caused by human activities.

Adaptation, meaning measures to reduce the adverse impacts on human well-being resulting from the changes in climate that do occur.

Suffering the adverse impacts that are not avoided by either mitigation or adaptation.

Adaptation options exist in all sectors

Category Examples

Human development

Improved access to education, nutrition, health facilities, energy, safe housing & social support structures; Reduced gender inequality & marginalization in other forms.

Disaster risk management

Early warning systems; Hazard & vulnerability mapping; Diversifying water resources; Improved drainage; Flood & cyclone shelters; Building codes & practices; Transport & road infrastructure improvements

Ecosystem management

Maintaining wetlands & urban green spaces; Coastal afforestation; Watershed & reservoir management; Reduction of other stressors on ecosystems & of habitat fragmentation; Maintenance of genetic diversity;

Adaptation options exist in all sectors

Category Examples

Institutional Economic options: Financial incentives; Insurance; Pricing water to encourage universal provision and careful use; Microfinance; Public-private partnerships.

Laws & regulations: Land zoning laws; Building standards & practices; Water regulations & agreements; Laws to support disaster risk reduction; Laws to encourage insurance purchasing; Fishing quotas; Patent pools & technology transfer.

National & government policies & programs: National & regional adaptation plans, Economic diversification; Urban upgrading programs; Municipal water management programs; Disaster planning & preparedness; Integrated water management; Ecosystem-based management; Community-based adaptation.

Adaptation is now inevitable...The only question is “will it be by plan or by chaos”?

ALREADY OCCURRINGADAPTATION IS

http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/home

Sectoral Risks & Potential for Adaptation: Urban Areas• Heat stress, extreme precipitation, flooding,  landslides, air

 pollution, drought, and water  scarcity  pose risks in urban areas.

• Risks are amplified for those lacking essential infrastructure  and services or living in poor‐quality housing and exposed  areas.

• Reducing basic service deficits, improving housing, and  building resilient infrastructure systems could significantly reduce vulnerability and exposure in urban areas.

• Urban adaptation benefits from effective multi‐level urban  risk  governance, alignment of policies and incentives,  strengthened local government and community adaptation  capacity, synergies with the private sector, and appropriate   financing and institutional development

Climatechange

Impacts Response

Developmentobjectives

Policycriteria

Mitigation

Adaptation

Monitoring,Evaluation

Otherstresses

Existingmanagement

practices

Climatevariability

Information,Awareness

Planning,Design

Implemen-tation

The process of adaptation

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

Conclusions

➜ IPCC WGII has made a sober assessment of the impacts of climate change. They are significant, vary by region and country and pose important threats to our future.

➜ The report concludes that while impacts in the next 30 years or so are not dependent on mitigation, after that time they depend a lot on what emissions scenario we face.

➜ On adaptation it is more optimistic for several areas. We can adapt to a significant extent if we take the right actions.

➜ The key is to focus on developing adaptation strategies that are inclusive, flexible, that look at the wider picture and that are based on a realistic estimate of the benefits.