What drives and what hinders energetic building refurbishments in Germany? Dr. Ralph Henger 20th...

What drives and what hinders energetic building refurbishments in Germany?

Dr. Ralph Henger

20th Annual ERES Conference, Vienna | Austria, 3-6 July 2013

Green Buildings & Environmental Policies, Parallel Session C-24July 4, 2013, 13:30–15:00, Room 5

Dr. Ralph Henger, ERES Conference Vienna, 4th July 2012, Session C-2, Room 5

Content

Background

Drivers and constrains

Profitability of energetic building refurbishments

Conclusion

Germany’s climate policy

CO2 reduction of 40 % by 2020 and 80% by 2050 (compared to 1990)

By 2020: achieve 35 % share of renewables (electricity)

The building sector accounts for about 40% of Germany’s final energy consumption and about one third of CO2 emissions.

Energy Concept 2050: Sectorial (ambitious) targets for the building sector

By 2020: minus 20 % of Final Energy Consumption

By 2050: minus 80 % of Primary Energy Consumption (“near-zero-carbon building stock”)

Current refurbishment rate of 1 % p.a. is too low to reach the targets, doubling to 2 % is necessary

Background


Source: IWU Gebäudetypologie 2011

Germany’s building stockTwo third was built before 1978 (1st Thermal Insulation Ordinance)

21%

44%

30%

4%

vor 1948 1949 –1978 1979–20012002–2009

26%

40%

27%

6%

vor 1948 1949 –1978 1979–2001

2002–2009

Homes Buildings


Residential energy consumption for heating per household, depending on age and condition of the buildings

Source: ARGE (Arbeitsgemeinschaft für zeitgemäßes Bauen e.V.) 2011

Average consumption: Single-unit house: 172

kWh/m²a

Multi-unit house (< 12 units): 145 kWh/m²a

Much higher consumption in building stock built before 1978 indicates high energy saving potential (better insulation and heating efficiency)


fully renovated partially renovated not renovated

Huge potential for saving energy and CO2Residential building stock (built until 2001): 34,4 Mio.

Source: IW Cologne 2012 based on ARGE (Arbeitsgemeinschaft für zeitgemäßes Bauen e.V.) 2011


before 1948 1949 - 1978 1979 - 20010%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2%6%

62%65%

71%

34%33%

23%

5%

building stock share

not renovated

minor renovated

partially / fully renovated

Final Energy ConsumptionTarget 2020: minus 20%

Source: IW Cologne 2012


2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1%-Scenario: Final Energy Consumption in TWh/a

2%-Scenario: Final Energy Consumption in TWh/a

Minus-20%-Target (2020)

2020: -10%

2020: -21%

Primary Energy ConsumptionTarget 2050: minus 80%



2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

2047

2048

2049

2050

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1%-Scenario: Primary Energy Consumption in TWh/a

2%-Scenario: Primary Energy Consumption in TWh/a

Minus-80%-Target (2050)

2050: -63%

2050: -83%

Refurbishment measuresEnergetic building refurbishment rate (in % of building stock to 2004)

Source: IW Cologne 2012 based on Datenbasis Gebäudebestand (IWU / BEI 2010)


Insulation

Renew windows

Exchange heating

Use su

bsidy

Use kf

w-subsid

y

Insulation &

Windows

Insulation &

Heating

Windows &

Heating

2.22.3 2.3

1.2

0.81.0

0.50.6

1.8 1.9

1.5

1.0

0.7 0.7

0.3 0.3

Home owners Landlords

Investments shifting from construction to renovation

Investments 2011: € 307 Billion into the building sector, thereof €183 Billion into the stock (60%) (German Building Ministry, 2012)

Green renovations are becoming more and more popular

Investments 2011: €53 Billion (29% of all building stock investments) are energetic refurbishments, thereof €38 Billion into residential buildings (German Building Ministry, 2012)

High investments for reaching a “nearly-climate-neutral building stock”

Overall: €838 Billion by 2050

New buildings: €331 Billion by 2050

Maintenance of the building stock: €270 Billion by 2050

Energy efficiency: €237 Billion by 2050 (for comparison: Energy Savings: €361 Billion!)

Green Investments are taking place



Content

Background

Drivers and constraints


Conclusion

TechnicalAge and condition of the buildingBuilding Type (one vs. multi-unit

buildings)Potential operational energy

saving

Influencing Factors


(Socio-)Economic Energy PricesPay-back time / Interest Rates Property value or rentLocation

Individual Owner/ Occupant characteristics

(income, age, household size, health)

Owner/ Occupant motives, awareness and preferences

RegulatoryBuilding codes and standards Financial incentives (subsidies,

tax reductions)Landlord-Tenant Law Information / Transparency (e.g.

Energy certificates)

Landlord / Tenant DilemmaComparison of rent increases and returns


<00-

10

20-3

0

40-6

0

80-1

0005

10152025303540

Distribution of rent increase after refur-

bishment in %

<0 0 0-5 5-11 11-20

>2005

101520253035404550

Distribution of returns after refurbishment in %

Source: 1,301 objects in the kfw “Energy-efficient refurbishment” program (Henger and Voigtländer 2011)

Rent increase Initial returns

Rational decisions need transparency

2008: Energy certificates Required whenever buildings (residential,

non-residential) are sold or rented

Information on energy consumption / demand expressed in terms (kWh/m2/yr)

Very low acceptance by homeowners and realtors

EnEV 2014: improvements Stricter controls (randomly)

Obligation to display energy certificates at public buildings

More transparency: Energy certificates


Content

Background



Conclusion


How much energy savings can be realized?Results from some selected case-study calculations


kWh/m²a


IWU

200

8 (1

969-

1978

)

IWU

for B

SI 2

008

(19.

..

ARG

E 20

11 (K

fW 1

00)

ARG

E 20

11 (K

fW 7

0)

Den

a 20

10 (K

fW10

0)

Den

a 20

10 (K

fW55

)

empr

icia

/ LU

WO

GE

2...

empr

icia

/ LU

WO

GE

2...

ARG

E 20

11 (K

fW 1

00)

ARG

E 20

11 (K

fW 7

0)

0

100

200

300

400

End energy demand before End energy demand after

Total costs vs. Energy efficiency costsResults from some selected case-study calculations



IWU

200

8 (1

969-

1978

)

IWU

for B

SI 2

008

(19.

..

ARG

E 20

11 (K

fW 1

00)

ARG

E 20

11 (K

fW 7

0)

Den

a 20

10 (K

fW10

0)

Den

a 20

10 (K

fW55

)

empr

icia

/ LU

WO

GE

2...

empr

icia

/ LU

WO

GE

2...

ARG

E 20

11 (K

fW 1

00)

ARG

E 20

11 (K

fW 7

0)

0

200

400

600

800Full costs Energy efficiency costs

kWh/m²a

Does an energetic refurbishment pays off?Results from some selected case-study calculations



IWU

200

8 (1

969-

1978

)

IWU

for B

SI 2

008

(195

8-19

68)

ARG

E 20

11 (K

fW 1

00)

ARG

E 20

11 (K

fW 7

0)

Den

a 20

10 (K

fW10

0)

Den

a 20

10 (K

fW55

)

empr

icia

/ LU

WO

GE

2010

(19.

..

empr

icia

/ LU

WO

GE

2010

(19.

..

ARG

E 20

11 (K

fW 1

00)

ARG

E 20

11 (K

fW 8

5)

0102030405060

Full costs Energy efficiency costs Energy savingsEUR/m²a

How important are subsidies (of the kfw)?Results from some selected case-study calculations



EUR/m²a

IWU

200

8 (1

969-

1978

)

IWU

for B

SI 2

008

(195

8-19

68)

ARG

E 20

11 (K

fW 1

00)

ARG

E 20

11 (K

fW 7

0)

Den

a 20

10 (K

fW10

0)

Den

a 20

10 (K

fW55

)

empr

icia

/ LU

WO

GE

2010

(19.

..

empr

icia

/ LU

WO

GE

2010

(19.

..

ARG

E 20

11 (K

fW 1

00)

ARG

E 20

11 (K

fW 8

5)

0102030405060

Full costs - subsidy (kfw) Energy efficiency costs - subsidy (kfw) Energy savings

Total costs differ significantly across buildings and measures

However: Total costs can never be paid off with energy savings

Energetic refurbishments should not be done outside the “renovation cycle” of a building

“Energy efficiency” costs lie around 33–50% below total costs

Energy efficiency costs can be paid off in one-third of the case-study calculations

… with kfw subsidies in two-third of the case-study calculations

Energetic refurbishments are financially rewarded within the “renovation cycle” if…

Homes are in a bad condition, i.e. energy consumption is high

Government / kfw subsidies can be claimed

Investment costs can be shifted to tenants (by increasing rents)

Stylized factsBased on 22 case-study calculations (Henger and Voigtländer 2012)


Content

Background



Conclusion


Main drivers: old building stock, kfw subsidies, homeowners’ motivation

Main barriers: long pay-back periods, landlord / tenant dilemma, transparency

Targets for a zero-carbon building stock by 2050 seems to be too ambitious

Government has to develop a long-ranging and socially balanced strategy with an effective subsidy and monitoring scheme

Conclusion


Thank you for your attention!

Dr. Ralph Henger

Cologne Institute for Economic Research, Real Estate Economics

+49 221 4981-744 [email protected]

www.immobilienoekonomik.de

Date post:	28-Mar-2015
Category:	Documents
Upload:	christopher-baker
View:	213 times
Download:	1 times

What drives and what hinders energetic building refurbishments in Germany? Dr. Ralph Henger 20th...

Documents