Within the Amazon: The Impact of Roads on Brazil’s

Environmental, Political, Social and Economic Future

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Above: The impacts of the Trans-Amazonian highway, running through Brazil, can be seen- extensive deforestation occurs in the area surrounding this road.

Sarah BarjumKate Heller

Dani Krumholz

By:

Objective:

To what extent have roads shaped the present state of the Amazon? And with the continued trend of road building throughout this rainforest, what will be the long-term political, social, economic and environmental impacts?

Avançça Brasil: What is it?

• In 2000 the Brazilian government created the latest plan which aims to develop roads, railways, waterways and hydroelectric dams in the Brazilian Amazon region. It is a package of 338 projects throughout Brazil; the portion of the plan to be carried out in Brazil's Legal Amazon region totals US $43 billion over 8 years, US$20 billion. Called for paving an additional 7,500 km of highways in Amazonia.The scale of the project could have global impacts as a huge amount of the world's biodiversity may be lost.

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A Brief History…

• Many analysts believe that Avançça Brasil owes its origins to the IMF restructuring of Brazil in the late 1990s. Mandates included increasing Brazil's export earnings and attracting more foreign investments'. Another, was for Brazil to jump-start its construction industry. It is expected that Avançça Brasil will certainly do that.

Why build roads?

• Fuelled by the demand for cheap supplies of mahogany and other tropical timbers .

• When contractors build roads into forest-rich regions, the improved access to urban markets sparks logging and land clearing along the roads. When contractors pave dirt roads, access improves again, so landowners clear more forest, and the extent of cultivated land expands close to the road.

• The Brazilian government argues that the rising population needs land to improve their quality of life, and the country needs to make money from natural resources to industrialize and to pay off foreign debt.

Where are the roads?

• The roads to be paved include the following: BR-163 between the Para-Mato Grosso Border and Santarem

BR-364 from Porto Velho to Rio Branco to Cruzeiro do Sul on the

Peru Border

BR-319 between Porto Velho and Manaus

BR-317 from Rio Branco to Assis Brasil on the Peru border

BR-230 (Trans-Amazon Highway) from Maraba to Itaituba

BR-156 from Macapa to the Border with Guyana

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http://www.geog.ubc.ca/courses/klink/g470/class02/cjtruema/results.html

What will this do to the Amazon?

• William Laurance, of the Smithsonian tropical research institute in Panama, said: "Once a road or highway is built, a Pandora's box is opened which is almost impossible for a government to control. Once you build a road into a pristine forest you start an inevitable process of illegal colonization, logging, land-clearing and forest destruction.”

• Presented scenarios for the Amazon suggested that, fully implemented, Avança Brasil would lead to the loss of 28 percent of the forest by 2020 if "optimistic" and a loss of 42 percent if "non optimistic.”

• However, the Avanca Brasil plan will increase this rate of loss by between 14 percent and 25 percent each year, according to the study.

http://www.geog.ubc.ca/courses/klink/g470/class02/cjtruema/results.html

The current and future impacts of roads in the Amazon

•This project focuses on the building and/or paving of existing roads that will criss-cross the Amazon, leading to fragmentation, increased fire risk, deforestation and encroachment onto traditional indigenous lands

•These road networks will effectively fragment the most dense and remote areas of the Amazon Rainforest and leave it vulnerable to destruction through fire.

–Roads lead to fragmentation of forest lands and the drying out of edges of forest. In seasons of reduced rainfall or drought, or in El Nino years, breaks in the forest canopy will result in more radiation being absorbed and drier soil. This is a positive feedback cycle leading to larger and larger areas of flammable forest.–In addition, new migrants arriving on the road will increase wildfire concerns if they burn their land to clear it.

•With the improved access that comes with an improved road system, the Amazon will face challenges coming from ther resouce extraction industry. Greenpeace estimates that 80% of Amazon logging is illegal. The spatial distribution of saw mills and the output of those mills and spatially correlated to the location of paved roads.

•Will allow for easier transportation routes between cities and ports in the area.–New roads increase access for new migrants and increase the amount of land available for colonization. Accordingly, highway construction in the Amazon over the last 20 years has resulted in considerable land conversion from tropical forests to farming. A population increase of 330% has been largely responsible for the deforestation in Mato Grosso and Rondonia

Overview of the Immediate Environmental Impacts of Roads

• Largest threat is the ever-increasing deforestation

- Local importance of development to provide for the population

- Difficulty of regulation of roads

• Rate of loss ~ 2 million hectares/year

• Road-caused deforestation likely to increase surface temperatures and change rainfall

• Deforestation poses huge threats to survival of wildlife

• Highways and roads determined to be strongest cause of deforestation (greater than climate factors, rural-population density, and soil factors)

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The Convergence of Two Roads in the Amazon

Deforestation and CO2

• Amazon contains ~ 12% of world carbon reservesà absorbs a lot of earth’s carbon and gives off a lot of oxygen

• In converting the forest into agriculture, grasslands, or simply destroying it, world CO2 concentrations would rise by ~ 16-36 ppm

• Tropical land temperature could potentially increase between 2˚C and 8˚C, decreasing the forest’s productivity

• Average global temperatures are likely to rise by 0.1˚C to 0.3˚C• One scenario predicts eastern Amazon to become a permanent ‘El

Niño’ where forests replaced by savannas• Although it is difficult to quantify the threat of atmospheric

change, it is clear that average tree life expectancy will decline and carbon cycle will be altered à grave consequences for the Amazon’s ecology à threats to survival

http://www.geog.ubc.ca/courses/klink/g470/class02/cjtruema/results.html

Impacts of Roads on Wildlife

• Roads have not only caused deforestation, but also fragmentation, both of which are harmful to animals and plants

• Roads (& power lines) or narrow, linear clearings, have 3 major negative effects:

1) Creation of edge effects2) Promotion of invasive species3) Increase of human disturbances and hunting

• A population of understory birds were used in a 2-year study to assess environmental effects of roads on wildlife

• Study Conclusions: roads highly impede the rate of bird movement - “edge avoidance” : birds avoided area near roads - “gap avoidance” : birds rarely went on the cleared roads either

• Roads could have even graver consequences for less mobile species• Roads have the potential to not only divide populations into smaller

ones, but in doing so they increase species’ vulnerability to decreased genetic variation and thus make local populations extinct

Environmental Impacts Environmental Impacts of Avança Brasilof Avança Brasil

2 models used to predict future of Amazon 2 models used to predict future of Amazon –optimistic (top image)optimistic (top image)–nonoptomistic (bottom)nonoptomistic (bottom)

Models show spatial distribution of land ranging Models show spatial distribution of land ranging from heavily degraded to pristine forestfrom heavily degraded to pristine forestOptimistic scenario assumes protected areas are Optimistic scenario assumes protected areas are less likely to be degraded and that degraded areas less likely to be degraded and that degraded areas are more localizedare more localizedBoth models show the dramatic destruction of Both models show the dramatic destruction of forest over the next 20 yearsforest over the next 20 yearsHighest destruction in southeastHighest destruction in southeastFuture Predictions: Future Predictions:

–OptimisticOptimistic total of 28% loss of original forest by total of 28% loss of original forest by 20202020–NonoptimisticNonoptimistic total of 42% loss of original forest by total of 42% loss of original forest by 20202020

http://lba.cptec.inpe.br/publications/Laurance_etal_2001.pdf

Avança Brasil(Advance Brazil)

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Social, Economic and Political Expectations of

New Roads-Increased available land-New access into pristine, previously undisturbed forests-Onset of new agriculture-Lower transportation time (as opposed to barges and ships)

Increased capital/ Economic development

The Reality of Roads

-Roads facilitate spread of diseases-No economic improvement-Large drops in price of rice, soybeans and beef-The Brazilian Real (form of currency) is extremely low compared to the US dollar-Freight by ship much more energy and cost efficient

Brazil’s National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES), which promotes transportation infrastructure development, “has published transportation cost figures that directly contradict the political discourse promoting the highway project.” (Fearnside-BR-319…, 712)

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Faults of the Avança Brasil Plan

Projects initiated before the studies that examine benefits and risks are performed

Tendency to ignore unfavorable information

Sole consideration of primary impacts of roads/ Ignorance towards human impacts

“The decision to build or not to build a highway is made by government officials, in contrast to the thousands of largely uncontrollable individual decisions made by far-flung squatters, speculations, and others once a highway is built.” (Fearnside-Deforestation…, 218)

“Discourse regarding the highway systematically overestimates the highway’s benefits and underestimates its impacts.” (Fearnside-BR-319…, 715)

Abandonment of commitment to biological reserves, Amerindian reserves, environmental preservation

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Corruption within

Avança Brasil committee

Human Impacts as a Result of Road Construction

Migration of the landless

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Roads

Population

Agricultural Profitability

Colonist Turnover

Deforestation

Clearing PerColonist

(+)Positive feedback loop

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Causal loop diagram adapted from “Deforestation and International Economic Development Projects in Brazilian Amazonia” by

Philip M. Fearnside

Linking Population Migration and Deforestation

“Roads facilitate entry of settlers whose land claims (established by deforestation) justify building more roads.” (Feanside-Deforestation…,

214)

Misplaced Intentions

“Projects in Amazonia are often undertaken to alleviate social problems outside the region, especially by absorbing migrants who leave southern and northeastern Brazil because of population growth, agricultural transformation, and land tenure concentration.” (Fearnside- Deforestation…, 214)

So, what are the main problems with roads?

Symbolic Actions“Symbolic actions include announcements of grandiose plans that are never to be executed, and undertaking visible environmental measures that are either inherently ineffective as solutions to the problems created by the developmental projects in questions, or are carried out on a merely token scale.” (Fearnside-Deforestation…, 219)

Loose Enforcement and Ineffective Regulation

“Avanca Brasil proponents emphasize the existence of federal and state environmental agencies, police, etc., giving the impression that the process of land occupation and deforestation is orderly and controlled in Amazonia. This is very misleading, as much of this activity occurs illegally. Enforcement of the regulations that exist on paper is a tremendous problem at the frontier.” (Fearnside-Avanca…, 738)

Are the benefits worth the costs?

In Conclusion: What needs to be done to change the state and status of road building and

encourage positive growth?

-Unbiased reports-The need to evaluate before implementing-Assess the interrelatedness of economic, social political and environmental issues -Weigh the impacts as well as benefits-Find sustainable solutions

Implement Change…

Realize…

-The need for long-term solutions: ex. Migration and squatting do not satisfy the lack of employment-The unsustainability of logging, cattle ranching, soybean production, deforestation

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Connor, Steve. “A Super-road spells death for Amazon forest.”<Connor, Steve. “A Super-road spells death for Amazon forest.”<http://www.rainforests.net/2020report.html> (25 March 2007).(25 March 2007).

Fearnside, Philip M. (2002) Avanca Brasil: Environmental and Social Consequences of Brazil’s Planned Fearnside, Philip M. (2002) Avanca Brasil: Environmental and Social Consequences of Brazil’s Planned Infrastructure in Amazonia. Environmental Management 30 (6), 735-747.Infrastructure in Amazonia. Environmental Management 30 (6), 735-747.

Fearnside, Philip M. (1987) Deforestation and International Economic Development Projects in Brazilian Fearnside, Philip M. (1987) Deforestation and International Economic Development Projects in Brazilian Amazonia. Conservation Biology 1 (3), 214-221.Amazonia. Conservation Biology 1 (3), 214-221.

Fearnside, Philip M. and Paulo Mauricio Lima de Alencastro Graca. (2006 BR-319: Brazil’s Manaus-Porto Fearnside, Philip M. and Paulo Mauricio Lima de Alencastro Graca. (2006 BR-319: Brazil’s Manaus-Porto Velho Highway and the Potential Impact of Linking the Arc of Deforestation to Central Amazonia. Velho Highway and the Potential Impact of Linking the Arc of Deforestation to Central Amazonia. Environmental Management 38, 705-716.Environmental Management 38, 705-716.

Laurance, Susan G. W., Philip C. Stouffer, William F. Laurance (2004) Effects of Road Clearings on Laurance, Susan G. W., Philip C. Stouffer, William F. Laurance (2004) Effects of Road Clearings on Movement Patterns of Understory Rainforest Birds in Central Amazonia. Conservation Movement Patterns of Understory Rainforest Birds in Central Amazonia. Conservation Biology 18 (4), 1099–1109. Biology 18 (4), 1099–1109.

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Laurance, William F. Mark A. Cochrane, Scott Bergen, Philip M. Fearnside, Patricia Delamônica, Laurance, William F. Mark A. Cochrane, Scott Bergen, Philip M. Fearnside, Patricia Delamônica, Christopher Barber, Sammya D'Angelo, Tito Fernandes. Christopher Barber, Sammya D'Angelo, Tito Fernandes. The Future of the Brazilian The Future of the Brazilian AmazonAmazon. . ScienceScience 19 January 2001: Vol. 291. no. 5503, pp. 438 - 439. 19 January 2001: Vol. 291. no. 5503, pp. 438 - 439.

London, Mark and Brian Kelly. 2007. The Last Forest: The Amazon in the Age of Globalization. Random London, Mark and Brian Kelly. 2007. The Last Forest: The Amazon in the Age of Globalization. Random House, New York.House, New York.

Maslin, Mark, Yadvinder Malhi, Oliver Phillips, Sharon Cowling (2005) New views on an old forest: Maslin, Mark, Yadvinder Malhi, Oliver Phillips, Sharon Cowling (2005) New views on an old forest: assessing the longevity, resilience and future of the Amazon rainforest. Transactions of the assessing the longevity, resilience and future of the Amazon rainforest. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers 30 (4), 477–499.Institute of British Geographers 30 (4), 477–499.

Pfaff, Alexander, Juan Robalino, Robert Walker, Steven Aldrich, Marcellus Caldas, Eustaquio Reis, Pfaff, Alexander, Juan Robalino, Robert Walker, Steven Aldrich, Marcellus Caldas, Eustaquio Reis, Stephen Perz, Claudio Bohrer, Eugenio Arima, William Laurance, Kathryn Kirby (2007) Stephen Perz, Claudio Bohrer, Eugenio Arima, William Laurance, Kathryn Kirby (2007)

ROAD INVESTMENTS, SPATIAL SPILLOVERS, AND DEFORESTATION IN ROAD INVESTMENTS, SPATIAL SPILLOVERS, AND DEFORESTATION IN THE THE BRAZILIAN AMAZON. Journal of Regional Science 47 (1), 109–123.BRAZILIAN AMAZON. Journal of Regional Science 47 (1), 109–123.Trueman, Chris. “Building Highways Across the Brazilian Amazon.” Trueman, Chris. “Building Highways Across the Brazilian Amazon.”

<<http://www.geog.ubc.ca/courses/klink/g470/class02/cjtruema/> (25 March 2007). (25 March 2007).Wallace, Scott. January 2007. Last of the Amazon. National Geographic Magazine. 211 (1): 40-71.Wallace, Scott. January 2007. Last of the Amazon. National Geographic Magazine. 211 (1): 40-71.

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