World Bank Group Seminar
“Challenges and Opportunities for Sustainable
Natural Resources Management”
September 30, 2016Tokyo, Japan
Julia Bucknall, Acting Senior Director
Environment and Natural Resources Global Practice
2015 was a momentous year
Good news: Global is down
Millions of people living below $1.90/ a day (2011 PPP). Source: World Bank
19591752
983 897702
352
1990 1999 2011 2012 2015 2030
Poverty
But… is more entrenched
Share of rural population in total population per region; Share of rural poverty in total poverty. Sources: WDI; IFAD 2010
60
110
1988 2008
% o
f Tot
al
South Asia / Rural Population
Sub-Saharan Africa / RuralPopulation
78% of the world’s extreme poor live in rural areas
Poverty
rates would be higher without income from
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Pove
rty ra
te
Without environmentalincome
Poverty rate (%) in subtropical smallholder systems, based on data from 58 sites in 24 countries. Environmental income = income from forests and other environmental resources. Source: Noack et al. PEN data, cited in Shock Waves
Poverty rate would increase from 27% to 41% in households surveyed
PovertyNatural Resources
Rising global demand
Food, water, energy, pulp
Projected increase in food demand by 2030 (%)
Shifting demographics
Population in 2010 (billion)
Population in 2100(billion)
Americas1
Americas1
Europe1
Europe1
Africa1
Africa4
Asia4
Asia5
Distribution of the global middle class (%) by region. Source: German Development Institute; Simple breakdown of projected world population. Source: Hans Rosling, 2015
Environmental is worsening
Environmental damages in low and middle income countries are up 83% since 1990.
0
100
200
300
400
500
1995 2013
Envi
ronm
enta
l cos
ts
(Bn
2011
USD
) Net GHGemissions/removals
from land useGHG emissions from
fossil fuels
Forest timber depletion
Degradation
Some losses are irreversible
Living Planet Index (left) Sources: WWF, Living Planet Index, 2015; Tom Toles, Washington Post
Global risks are changing
Changes in global risk perceptions between 2015 and 2016. Source: World Economic Forum
We’ve agreed to transformation
Our mission
• We have opportunities to deliver on all fronts: poverty, prosperity, sustainability
ENR Global Practice Business Lines
Natural Capital Accounting is focused on the part of total wealth that comes from land, water, mineral, energy, soil, forests and timber, and
ecosystem assets.
What space does WAVES work in?
WAVES emphasizes institutionalization, and country and decision-driven, policy focused NCA
WAVES ObjectivesWAVES is a World Bank–led global partnership that aims to promote sustainable development by ensuring that natural resources are mainstreamed in the development planning and national economic accounts.
WAVES aims to:1) Help countries adopt and implement accounts that are
relevant for policies and compile a body of experience;2) Develop ecosystem accounting methodologies;3) Establish a global platform for training and knowledge
sharing; and 4) Build international consensus around NCA
WAVES Global Partnership• Core implementing countries• Contributing Donor Partners• Participating Partners
The story so far
WAVES was launched at the Convention on Biological Diversity meeting in Nagoya, Japan
2010 Fundraising began and funding through the MDTF became available for country implementation in December 2012.
2011 Following from the Gaborone Declaration, World Bank launched the 50:50 NCA initiative for Rio+20.
2012
At the World Bank-IMF Spring Meetings, High-level Ministerial Dialogue with Ministers of Finance on NCA to reaffirm their commitment.
2013 To respond to the growing demand, an expansion strategy was approved by the WAVES Steering Committee.
2014 WAVES+ approved by the Steering Committee. Partnership to support 5-8 additional core implementing countries and increase focus on regional activities
2016
Water accounts in Botswana
The water-intensive agricultural sector contributes the least to GDP and employment; the mining sector has greater water productivity, and the services sector does even better.
• Urbanization and industrialization in Laguna de Bay have led to:
• Decreased agricultural lands, from 24% to perennial crops and 15% to 11% for perennial crops
• Increased built-up areas, from 8% to 17%
• Heavy sedimentation has decreased the retention capacity and increased flood risks
Ecosystem Accounts - Philippines
• Southern Palawan is facing competing demands on its forests, agricultural lands, minerals, marine resources and biodiversity, leading to:
• More and more land converted to palm oil plantation
• Decline in coral reefs and mangrove ecosystems
• Small increase in forests cover
• Importance of ecosystem regulating services
COUNTRY EXAMPLES
•Water accounts are identified as a key tool for water sector reforms.
• Mineral accounts are helping to develop a fiscal rule on managing mineral revenues - a major component of GDP and government revenue.
• Energy accounts are expected to guide electricity pricing and decisions about the energy supply mix, particularly the role of renewables versus coal.
Impact of NCA in Botswana Impact of NCA in Philippines
Laguna de Bay:
• Water accounts will inform water pricing.
• Physical and monetary accounts of the ecosystem and its services will inform upstream land use management for water quality.
Southern Palawan:
• Accounts will help in land use planning and management, and in managing trade-offs
Our vision of a sustainable healthyblue economy is foremost a world ofhealthy aquatic habitats andecosystems that support fish stocksproperly valued and managed for thedelivery of ecosystem servicesincluding incomes and povertyalleviation, resilience to climatechange, food and nutritional security.
THE BLUE ECONOMY - OUR VISION
Potential of growing the Ocean Economy: Traditional and Emerging Ocean IndustriesComponents of the Ocean Economy Type of Activity Ocean Service Industry Drivers of Growth
Harvest of living resources
Seafood Fisheries Food SecurityAquaculture Demand for Protein
Marine biotechnology Pharmaceuticals, chemicals R&D for healthcare and industry
Extraction of non-living resources, generation of new resources
Minerals Seabed mining Demand for minerals
EnergyOil and gas Demand for alternative
energy sourcesRenewables
Fresh water Desalination Demand for fresh water
Commerce and trade in and around the oceans
Transport and tradeShipping Growth in seaborne
trade; International regulationsPort infrastructure and services
Tourism and recreationTourism Growth of global tourism
Coastal Development Coastal urbanizationDomestic regulations
Response to ocean health challenges
Ocean monitoring and surveillance Technology and R&D R&D in ocean
technologies
Carbon Sequestration Blue CarbonGrowth in coastal and ocean protection and conservation activities
Coastal Protection Habitat protection and restoration
Waste Disposal Assimilation of nutrients and wastes
Economic activity also means potential risks and challenges:
• Over-exploitation of natural resources,
• Illegal, Unregulated and Unreported (IUU) Fishing,
• Habitat degradation,
• Rising sea levels,
• Marine pollution,
• Ocean acidification,
• Unfair trade,
• Insufficient data,
• Lack of finance and governance,
• Lack of capacity and knowledge of the resource base
Challenges undermining the expansion of the Ocean economy
PROFISH analysis over the last several years has led many governments to better understand the challenges and opportunities of restructuring the fisheries sector and restoring fisheries resources.
As a result, governments are increasingly approaching the WBG to help finance the transition to environmentally and economically sustainable fisheries and expand aquaculture in a sustainable way.
To create an enabling environment for this, the WBG is already helping governments to invest in science, empowering fishing communities with secure tenure and business skills, reform and enforce fishing policies, and help the private sector secure investment capital and access the best markets.
PROFISH: Justification and Approach
PROFISH – ACTIVITIES
Through inputs of technical advice, convening services and strategicanalysis, PROFISH has over the years leveraged over $800 million inWBG, Global Environment Facility (GEF) and private sector finance ontotal expenditures of $4.6 million
Supporting fisheries reform and/or sustainable aquacultureinvestments for Armenia, Kazakhstan, Ghana, Cabo Verde, Indonesia,Liberia, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Mozambique, Guinea, Comoros,Morocco, Tanzania, Vietnam, Federated States of Micronesia,Mauritania, Republic of the Marshall Islands, Solomon Islands andTuvalu.
As of the end of 2016, new investments were being designed forKenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Brazil, Sri Lanka, Zambia, the Maldives, India,Indonesia, Bangladesh and Peru
Fragility, Conflict and Violence and NRM
WHAT WE ARE THINKING ABOUT
Thank you!
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