Date post: | 15-Jul-2015 |
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Economy & Finance |
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World Employment and Social Outlook (WESO):Trends 2015
Job-friendly Macroeconomic Policies Unit
Research DepartmentInternational Labour Organization (ILO)
January 2015
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 1 / 24
The world of work faces multiple challenges
Global
challenges
Slow growth
Inequality
Decreasingparticipation
Jobs gap
Youthunemployment
Vulnerableemployment
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 2 / 24
Global trends Jobs gap
Global growth remains lackluster...
Global growth and its components (per cent per annum)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 3 / 24
Global trends Jobs gap
...preventing unemployment from falling
Global unemployment (millions)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 4 / 24
Global trends Jobs gap
The global job gap opens up further...
Global job gap, 2014-2019
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 5 / 24
Global trends Jobs gap
...with significant variations across countries
Cross-country variations in unemployment rates (percentages)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 6 / 24
Global trends Youth unemployment
Youth unemployment continues to rise...
Change in youth unemployment, 2019 vs 2014
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 7 / 24
Global trends Youth unemployment
...especially in European countries...
Unemployment rates by age in the EU-28, Q2 2014 (percentage)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 8 / 24
Global trends Youth unemployment
... spreading the risk of social unrest....
Male youth unemployment and unrest (1991-2013)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 9 / 24
Global trends Youth unemployment
... which remains at its highest level for two decades
Social unrest across the world (index)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 10 / 24
Barriers to growth Overview
Global growth faces four headwinds
Barriers togrowth
Inequality
Job loss inmanufacturing
Gender gaps
Decreasingparticipation
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 11 / 24
Barriers to growth Inequality
Inequality remains high in developing countries...
Inequality measured by Gini index (2010)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 12 / 24
Barriers to growth Inequality
...and keeps on rising in advanced economies...
Evolution of the average Gini coefficient in G7 economies (2000-11)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 13 / 24
Barriers to growth Occupational shifts
...as medium-skill jobs disappear...
Change in employment by occupation in 2000-2013(percentage points in total employment)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 14 / 24
Barriers to growth Occupational shifts
...weighting on stronger economic growth
Income inequality makes growth accelerations less likely
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 15 / 24
Barriers to growth Sectoral employment growth
Future employment growth is mainly expected in services...
Sectoral employment growth (p.a.): 2010-2019
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 16 / 24
Barriers to growth Sectoral employment growth
...as manufacturing no longer drives development...
Peak share of manufacturing employment (1992-2013)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 17 / 24
Barriers to growth Sectoral employment growth
...which bodes ill for a faster economic recovery
Job creation in manufacturing makes growth slowdowns less likely
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 18 / 24
Barriers to growth Female employment
Women face high risks of vulnerable employment...
Difference between male and female vulnerable employment rates(percentage points)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 19 / 24
Barriers to growth Female employment
...and are less often employed
Difference between male and female employment rates(percentage points)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 20 / 24
Barriers to growth Global labour supply
Global labour supply is set to slow down...
Labour force participation rate (percentage)
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 21 / 24
Barriers to growth Global labour supply
...increasing the risk of growth setbacks
Impact of labour supply on the probability of growth slowdowns
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 22 / 24
Policy conclusions
How can we get growth back on track?
GrowthBolster aggregate demand andenterprise investment
FinanceRe-orient credit system tosupport the real economy
InequalityFoster quality jobs, participation,skills and income growth
Key challengeThe word economy is expandingwell below the pre-crisis trends
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 23 / 24
Check out for more !
Macro @ ILO WESO 2015 January 2015 24 / 24
Global trendsJobs gapYouth unemployment
Barriers to growthOverviewInequalityOccupational shiftsSectoral employment growthFemale employmentGlobal labour supply
Policy conclusions
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