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8/8/2019 World Oil Outlook 2010 - Press Conference
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Press conference for theofficial release of the
World Oil Outlook 2010
Vienna, 4 November 2010
www.o ec.or
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 1
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Outline
e e e ce case assu p o s
Medium- and lon -term oil demand andsupply outlook
Downstream issues
Implications for CO2 emissions
a n messages
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Key Reference Case assumptions
the previous World Oil Outlook but remains fragile
Robust average global economic growth of 3.7% p.a.over the next decade, averages 3.5% 2010-2030
Oil price assumption based upon estimated cost of
are incorporated, otherwise only a continuation ofpast trends is assumed
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Energy use will continue to rise butenergy poverty will remain a major issue
World energy supply by
fuel type in the
oil remains key
Energy use per capita ineve op ng coun r es s ayswell below OECD levels
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World oil demand outlook in theReference Case (mb/d)
2010 2014 2020 2030OECD 45.4 45.3 44.7 43.1
Developing countries 35.4 39.6 46.3 56.8
Transition economies 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.6
Assumed rapid recovery means oil demand levels of
World 85.5 89.9 96.2 105.5
2007 are reached again by 2011
In 2014, demand reaches almost 90 mb/d, close to 1mb/d higher than in the previous outlook
By 2030, oil demand is 20 mb/d higher than today
OECD demand falls throughout the period to 2030
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries 5
ransportat on sector s ey to o eman growt
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World oil supply outlook in theReference Case (mb/d)
2010 2014 2020 2030Non-OPEC 51.9 53.3 55.7 57.5
OPEC NGLs 4.7 5.9 7.2 8.9
OPEC crude 29.3 30.6 33.2 38.7 ver me um- erm, non- supp y con nues o r se
Slow rise in the demand for OPEC crude to 2014
Long-term: wide diversity of sources
By 2030, around 39 mb/d of OPEC crude is needed in theReference Case, a similar share of global supply to today
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Medium-term supply outlook:healthy levels of OPEC spare capacity
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Oil demand is subject to many uncertainties
Oil demand sub ect to man uncertainties: the econom
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
policies, technology8
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Demand uncertainty translates into a widerange of OPEC upstream investment needs
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Refining overcapacity will remain in themedium-term
Additional cumulative refinery crude runsRequired and potential*
*
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Required: based on projected demand increases
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A regional shift in downstream is emerging
Crude distillation capacity requirements by period20102030
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CO2 emissions: the historicalres onsibilit of develo ed countries
Per capita CO2 emissions
Per capita emissions from
above the rest of the world
Cumulative CO2
emissions since 1900
from Annex I countries willcontinue to be far higher than
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non-Annex I countries
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OPEC WOO 2010: Main messages (1)
Oil will remain the leading source in satisfying,
Resource base is sufficient and future supply willcome from a wide range of sources
Assumed economic recover means oil demand
levels of 2007 are reached again by 2011
comfortable levels
u ure res ap ng o e owns ream s expec e ,with an increasing focus on the Pacific basin
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OPEC WOO 2010: Main messages (2)
There remain huge uncertainties
conom c recovery un erway u r s s are s ewetowards the downside
any env ronmen a an energy-re a e po c es o eran unclear picture of their impact on future oil demand
y , eman uncer a n es s ow a erence o20 mb/d between higher and lower growth scenarios
,upstream investment needs between high and low
In climate change negotiations, historical
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www.opec.org
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