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Newbill: Pol-312 Term PaperYemen's Arab Spring
Failed State or Forever Free:
Yemen's Revolution, State Issues, and
Prospects for Democracy.
Que Newbill: Pol-312 Term Paper
Yemen's Arab Spring
1
Newbill: Pol-312 Term PaperYemen's Arab Spring
Failed State or Forever Free: Yemen's Revolution, State
Issues, and Prospects for Democracy
Introduction
The international community has become both baffled and
intrigued with the revolts in the Arab World. Many of the revolutions
seemed to have defied the established, but stagnant theories set
forth by middle eastern scholars. While these areas specialists
return to reform their disputations as policy analysts create new
rule books, the world watches. It is true, most of the revolutions
can be drawn from similar political and social-economic conditions,
but this general approach overlooks the distinctive dynamics in each
country which may have different theoretical causes. This is
especially true with Yemen.
Statement of Purpose
Yemen presents a special case in the study of the Arab
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Newbill: Pol-312 Term PaperYemen's Arab Spring
revolutions. This paper explains the exceptionalism of Yemen with
regards to its revolution, state issues, and prospects for
democratization. Yemen's revolution is unique for a number of
reasons. Not only is Yemen considered the “poorest” Arab country, it
is currently the only Arab state (in revolt) struggling with both
secessionist movements and even deeper tribalism issues. These
cultural features have galvanized its revolution, but also created
more uncertainty for its future. As Yemen's movement progresses,
these cleavages have become more enhanced. The direction of the
movement will be critical to deciding if Yemen as a state will
continue to exist.
Fragile Roots: National Identity and State Issues
The roots of Yemen's current issues began early in its history.
Originally, Yemen existed as two different states: the Yemen Arab
Republic (YAR) in the north and the People’s Democratic Republic of
Yemen (PDR) in the south. The Ottoman Empire controlled northern
Yemen until 1918. After independence, the Hamidaddin monarchy ruled
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Newbill: Pol-312 Term PaperYemen's Arab Spring
for several decades. In 1962, revolutionary forces overthrew the
monarchy and established the Yemen Arab Republic.
South Yemen’s modern period began a bit later than north Yemen.
The British controlled this region known as the Aden Protectorate
until 1967. Afterward, the southern government adopted a communist
system, the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen. South Yemen
existed as the only Marxist state in the Arab world with established
ties to the USSR, China, and Cuba. The two Yemeni states remained
amicable to each other. In 1972, the two heads of states decided to
unify. Tensions and disagreements over sharing power led to delays of
the eventual union. Finally, on May 22, 1990, North and South Yemen
formally united under then President Salih1.
State Formation and Regionalism
Despite a carefully formulated timetable with international
consultation, Yemen's unification cannot be called a true success.
While the first years after unification seemed promising, historical
tensions between the two former states were never solved. Roots of
resentment over distribution of resources have become the fertile
1 Salih is also spelled Saleh
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Newbill: Pol-312 Term PaperYemen's Arab Spring
grounds for the southern separatist movement and general social
discontent.
One of the primary problems is how southern Yemen perceives
northern Yemen as more developed. This has resulted in tensions
between the two states. After the border between the two countries
opened, the Yemenis noticed a stark difference between the northern
and southern cities. (Dunbar 1992) pointed this out,
“It was easy for travelers to see that the cities of Sanaa,
Taiz, and al-Hudaydah had surpassed Aden-once the second or
third busiest port in the world-as centers of commercial
activity. By the same token, North Yemeni visitors to the PDRY-
especially those who recalled the days prior to the revolution-
returned home with the impression that, whatever its faults, the
YAR system had produced obvious progress whereas Aden's brand of
Marxism had transformed the PDRY into an economic backwater with
limited prospects for advancement.”
In addition to these visible economic differences, northern Yemenis
were skeptical of a Marxist economic system. These fears were
alleviated with the proposed government that involved a structure of
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Newbill: Pol-312 Term PaperYemen's Arab Spring
a 50-50 split of positions between the northern and southern
officials. Problems resurfaced when the new government began, because
southern officials complained of low salaries compared to their
northern counterparts. Another issue was land reform; the government
was very slow in its effort to return properties taken by northern
Yemenis during the civil war. These tensions, because of ideology
and perceived wealth inequality made Yemenis in the south bitter.
These issues are still present in southern Yemen’s grievances today.
Protest rallies in the southern region are orchestrated on symbolic
days such as July 7th the anniversary of the entry of northern troops
in Aden (Mermier 2008). Saleh's regime has strategically used these
interests to retain power.
Yemen's Tribalism, National Identity, and Democratization
Concerning democratization, Yemen's fractionalism presents many
complications.. Democratization requires a certain degree of a
cohesive national identity, which Yemen currently does not have,
because of the regional and tribal identities of the north and south.
(Schnapper 2011) argues that in a democratic society, individuals and
groups buy into the idea of a “community of citizens”. This
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Newbill: Pol-312 Term PaperYemen's Arab Spring
“citizenship” creates a social and political link between
individuals. The role of tribes in Yemen makes “citizenship”
problematic. The now defunct central government has not found a way
to incorporate tribal identities into the political system. (Manea
1996) characterizes contemporary Yemen tribe- states relations by two
elements: “a tribal perception that separates national identity from
the concept of a sovereign state; and an alienation of tribesmen from
their tribal leaders who exercise political power in the center.” The
tribal and national spheres are very “disconnected” and “disengaged”
(Ibid). Yemenis find it difficult to accept the concept of a
sovereign state. There is no connection between their national
identity and the state that claims to represent that identity (Ibid).
(Manea 1996) concludes that “As far as [tribal leaders] are
concerned, the state is a mere synonym of the political elite who
holds the power in Yemen to the detriment of the country.” (Fattah
2011:5) concurs , “Yemen perhaps the last bastion of tribal power in
the Middle East … in some tribal areas, the presence of national-
security forces or military units is perceived as a foreign
intrusion”.
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Newbill: Pol-312 Term PaperYemen's Arab Spring
In the context of development, democratization issues become
even bigger when the state is fragile and unstable like Yemen.
(Grugal 2002:77) writes “the survival of sub-state nationalism in
nation states a considerable challenge to democracy”. Secessionist
movements such as the ones in the north (Al-Houthis) and the south
essentially “corrode” the chances for democracy. Nationality issues
can lead to “social breakdown,” “social exclusion,” and “civil
strife,”. These issues may culminate into a state of “diminished
sovereignty” (Grugel 2002:80). In Yemen, the sense of national
identity from unification eroded into regional affiliations due to
stronger tribal associations and the government patronage system
which still operates through tribal links. The state institutions
have only served to facilitate and to reinforce these patron-client
relations, rather than operate in the democratic nature of each
institution. This is discussed in-depth in a later section.
The Power Game and Its Players
Currently, these issues are demonstrated in Yemen's revolution.
Saleh's complex system of governance, a mix between coalitions and
patron-client relationships, which has reinforced tribal affiliations
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Newbill: Pol-312 Term PaperYemen's Arab Spring
and played up rivalries, has now turned to a labyrinth of power
networks that he is struggling to control. In contrast to the JMP,
(largely dominated by the Islamic party Islah) vying for an Islamist
state and the a grassroots, non-partisan, youthful pro-democracy,
groups such as secessionists from Yemen’s oil-exporting south, and
Houthi Shia rebels from the northern province of Saada both desire
“guarantees of autonomy”. Southern dissents have taken complete
control of Yemen's second-largest city, Taez, and Houthis rebels in
the north have taken complete control of Saada (Fattah 2011). The
Yemen central government does not have control over most parts of
Yemen.
It is also important to note, these groups vying for autonomy
have existed even before the “Arab Spring”. Saleh's armed conflict
with Al Houthis has existed for decades with only relatively short
periods of ceasefires. (Schall 2011) wrote, “The Houthis view his
[Saleh] government as a puppet for the United States and the Saudis,
and believe they are fighting to preserve their Zaidi sect of Shiite
Islam. Even though Saleh is a Zaidi, the Houthis allege he has
allowed Wahhabi (i.e., radical Sunni) forces to threaten their
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Newbill: Pol-312 Term PaperYemen's Arab Spring
existence. Indeed, the Saudis have bombed the Houthis on numerous
occasions and the Saudis continue to arm loyal sheiks along the
border of Yemen. As one scholar quotes, “Yemen is to Saudi Arabia
what Mexico is to the United States: a source of concern.”
The Marxist sect from the PDR in southern Yemen is still active
and earlier this year, separatist militants assassinated a top Yemeni
security officer. Of course, experts credit the growing secessionist
movement in southern Yemen with the increasing number of attacks.
These groups desire a South Yemen to be reconstituted.
A recent poll by the Yemeni Center for Civil Rights reported 70%
of Yemenis in the south favored succession.2 Outside of the need for
economic survival, many north Yemenis do not see the need for
unification. The southern Yemenis do not see the benefit either.
Before the Arab Spring, southern Yemenis began pushing for a Sudan-
style referendum to decide if the south should be sovereign once
again. To make matters worse, Al-Qaeda reportedly also supports the
southern succession.3 Yemen is considered the homeland of Al-Qaeda
2 Examiner “Southern Yemen: 70% favor secession poll shows”3 Jamestown Foundation “Al-Qaeda in Yemen Supports Southern Secession”
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Newbill: Pol-312 Term PaperYemen's Arab Spring
in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), it is also considered to have the
most dangerous branch of Al-Qaeda in the Middle- East (Fattah 2011).
As military leaders and tribal leaders ,the two factions of
Saleh's support base, continue to defect or resign, experts consider
a civil war a real possibility for Yemen (Freedberg Jr. 2011). Even
Saleh himself , in an attempt to gain international support, warned
of a bloody civil war that would precipitate an Al-Qaeda takeover if
he stepped down. The current situation has supports this idea.
Currently, Yemen has two armies, one that supports Saleh and the
other led by General Ali Muhsin, the commander of one of Yemen’s four
main military zones, who supports and protects the protestors. Adding
to this volatile mix, are the heavily armed sheiks. Earlier this year
when Saleh's guards attempted to storm the housing compound of Sheikh
Sadeq al-Ahmar, his tribal rival, the tribal militia of Sheikh Sadeq
unleashed “hell” on Saleh's troops and then laid siege to at least
nine government ministries.
Modern Yemen: The Teetering Tower
State Resources, Disparities, and Sand
In 2010, Transparency International (TI) ranked Yemen as one of
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Newbill: Pol-312 Term PaperYemen's Arab Spring
the corrupt states in the world, and second most corrupt in the
Middle-East region. In almost every facet of industry, patronage and
cronyism plague Yemen. For example, Saleh sells the Yemeni
government’s share of extracted crude oil to select groups and it is
rumored that most privileged clients can buy the subsidized oil
products, diesel for example, and then sell it for a profit on the
international market. (Alley 2011). Saleh has also used his political
party the General People’s Congress (GPC) to build and expand his
patronage-client relationships. A GPC membership represents a sign of
“loyalty” to the regime and the local committees it is comprised of
serve central government interest as a means to obtain government
benefits.
In addition to the corruption, Yemen faces a laundry list of
development issues and it has not found the balance between
increasing its capacity and delivering basic goods to the public.
Overall, the Yemen state cannot provide basic services to its 23.5
million population, that is growing at a rate of 2.7 percent annually
(Alley 2010). To make matters worse, its oil revenue which accounts
for majority of the state’s income may expire in the next decade
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Newbill: Pol-312 Term PaperYemen's Arab Spring
(Ibid). Water is another rapidly depleting natural resource and it is
still considered the greatest threat facing Yemen (Ismail 2000). The
water issue has become a “key political battleground” and exposed the
“cultural disconnect” between central government officials advocating
for water management and rural tribal groups that adhere to
traditional local customs. The government is also tied by Islamic law
that “All surface and groundwater on waqf lands was considered res
communis – i.e. for the benefit of the Muslim community; water on
mawt or mirr" public land was considered res nullius or ‘right of no
one’” ( Ismail 2000). Thus, the state has trouble controlling and
regulating allocation of groundwater. Some technical reports suggest
that Sanaa could be the first capital in the world to run out of
water (Fatah 2011).
The nature of the labor force presents a paradox of sorts in
Yemen. Yemen suffers from a crippling illiteracy rate. An estimated
43% of Yemenis live below the poverty line and employment is at a
staggering 40% (Fatah 2011). A large number of Yemeni males travel
abroad in search of employment. Domestic development projects are
untended and village communities remain heavily dependent on
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remittances from emigrant workers. These workers may return home with
savings that they invest in a small business such as shops, but
rising inflation makes these business ventures economically
nonviable. From the 1980s to the present, it has been cheaper to
import food than it is to grow it. Taxes present a worse situation,
because Islamic law makes it hard to tax both wealth and produce.
Adding to this, The recent Yemen-Al Houthis conflicts displaced
an estimated 130,000 persons from their homes in the northern
governorates.4 Majority of the government's revenues come from
Yemen's oil reserves and this is expected to be completed depleted in
the near future. Again, compounding these issues is the nature of the
patronage system. (Alley 2011:8) describes Saleh's rile as “solidly
neopatrimonial” versus “sultanistic”, because the social and
political limitations on Salih’s rule, and the relatively wide circle
of clients that support his regime. Two of the most powerful tribes
tribes, Saleh's Sanhan and al-Ahmar have allowed their local areas to
remain underdeveloped. Very little wealth has trickled down from the
tribal elites. As one scholar concluded “As a result of the
4 The Graduate Institute Geneva: Yemen
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Newbill: Pol-312 Term PaperYemen's Arab Spring
historical absence of strong central authority and the failure of
socialization of Yemenis as citizens, the state often behaves like a
tribe, and the tribe behaves like a state.” With such a volatile
situation and worsening socio-economic conditions, it is not a
surprise that Yemen followed suit like other Arab states with massive
anti-government protests.
Yemen's Relationship with US
The U.S. Foreign policy towards Yemen as only served to worsen
the situation. After September 11th, Former President George Walker
Bush introduced a national security policy coupled with democracy
promotion (Alzandani 2010). Bush’s approach combined elements of
realism and liberalism to tackle terrorist activities in the Middle
East. Due to its strategic location, Yemen became a focal point.
Yemen borders Saudi Arabia (a highly important American ally in the
Gulf region), the Red Sea, and provides access to the Indian Ocean.
Following a seven-year hiatus, USAID reopened its offices in
Yemen and restarted its foreign aid program to Yemen. Up until 2003,
this aid focused almost exclusively on US-Yemen military projects.
Year Total Military Development
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Newbill: Pol-312 Term PaperYemen's Arab Spring
2001 $5.4
million
$5.4
million
--
2002 $29.7
million
$20
million
$9.7
million
2003 $17.1
million
$1.9
million
$15.2
million
2004 $33.4
million
$14.9
million
$18.6
million
TABLE 1.1 Source: usatoday.com/news/world/2010-01-05-yemen-
aid_N.htm
By analyzing the numbers in Table 1.1 one can recognize that
U.S. foreign aid allocated to Yemen was very tiny in comparison with
the social needs that Salah‘s government is faces. The largest amount
that the Bush Administration provided to Yemen was earmarked to
military sector, with exception of the FY2003 335, For instance in
the FY2001 the entire aid went to military area 336 and in 2002 from
the total aid $29.7 million, more than 66% was allocated to military
assistance. Also, in FY2004 when aid totaled $33.4 million, $14.9
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Newbill: Pol-312 Term PaperYemen's Arab Spring
million of which was earmarked for military sector and the rest went
to other development sectors including democracy promotion.
According to the Minister of Human Rights Huda Alban, the Bush
Administration did not spend even one percent of its aid to Yemen for
democracy promotion” (Ibid). Alzandani concluded, “Overall, the total
aid Yemen received from the U.S. during the first term of Bush‘s
Administration was only $85.6 million; around 50% of that aid was
spent for security and military purposes”(Alzandani 2010 p. 204). Of
course, this relationship has proved tenuous in the current
revolution. Aside from calling for a end to the violence, the US
administration has remained silent on the Yemen situation. A few days
after a massacre in Saana, Defense Secretary Robert Gates, on a visit
to Moscow, was asked if the United States still backed Saleh. “I
don’t think it’s my place to talk about internal affairs in Yemen,”.
Earlier this year, (Schall 2011) wrote “if President Saleh falls, the
US will have lost a pliant partner in its 'global war on terror'.
Even though US backing of Saleh has done more to de-legitimatize the
regime.
The Obama administration has not only continued Bush's foreign
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Newbill: Pol-312 Term PaperYemen's Arab Spring
policy, but only also strengthened it. In a meeting with Obama
foreign policy delegates, Saleh pledged ““unfettered access to
Yemen’s national territory for U.S. counterterrorism operations,”
according to a classified US diplomatic cable released by WikiLeaks.
“Saleh insisted that Yemen’s national territory is available for
unilateral counterterrorism operations by the U.S. (Schall 2011)”. In
fact since 2009, the U.S. has executed numerous “clandestine
operations”, “launched surveillance aircraft to survey the intended
targets”, and conducted extensive missile strike and raids in
southern Yemen. (Schall 2011). In 2010, under General Petraeaus, the
US doubled its “security assistance” to Yemen. According to Wikileak
cables, Saleh authorized the United States to strike Al-Aqaeda in
Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) when “actionable intelligence” was
available. The same cable revealed Saleh's concern that the cruise
missiles used were not very accurate, but also that the Yemen
government would continue take “100% credit” for the strikes. Most
Yemenis do not believe the strikes to be from Saleh though. The
weaponry recovered from sites were clearly more advanced than
current Yemen arms. All this has only served to strength the fight
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Newbill: Pol-312 Term PaperYemen's Arab Spring
against the Saleh regime.
Conclusion: Failed State or Forever Free
Yemen provides an excellent example of revolutions in weak
state. The complexities of national identity, factionalism, and poor
state development contribute to a plethora of questions for the
Yemeni people to answer amidst their movement to produce a more
equitable state. The same features that sparked the revolution have
accelerated the movement and increased its potency. These same
features may also lead to a “failed state”, a divided state, or an
Al-Qaeda controlled state enterprise. In the same turn, the
diversity of supporters in the movement have shown great harmony and
coordinated in the efforts to oust Saleh. If this same energy is
directed in creating a coherent state, Yemen has the potential to
become a liberal state.
Yemen's current protestors can be divided into three main
groups. First, the youth who represent Nearly three-quarters of
Yemen’s population.5 Most of the youth represented come from the
central and southern governorates, where there tends to be a higher
5 Yemen and Its Youth Population: A Closer Look
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Newbill: Pol-312 Term PaperYemen's Arab Spring
level of education. The second major group is tribal. Headed by al
Ahmar family, it is the militarily and financially the strongest. The
last camp is the weakest and made up mostly of opposition parties.
Saleh's policy towards protestors has only deepened distrust in the
government and depleted the public funds even more, exacerbating
Yemen’s already bleak economic situation. While the anti-government
protests are hopeful and sincere, they still lack clear leadership.
Many factions are also represented in them. As one activist noted,
“There is a popular movement and a political movement in Yemen. But
there is no support from the political parties for the popular
movement, which is not organized. It is still weak and in the
beginning stages."6
For democratization to begin, Yemen needs more than just Saleh
removed, dealing with it’s nationality issues may be more important.
In states with strong regional affiliations and ethnic cleavages,
some experts recommend regional autonomy (Day 2006). This “democratic
federalism” has proved somewhat successful in Iraq, where the new
government allowed Kurds to maintain autonomous regional authority in
6 The Washington Post "In Yemen, Calls for Revolution But Many Hurdles"
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Newbill: Pol-312 Term PaperYemen's Arab Spring
the Northern provinces. Of course it is important not to draw strong
parallels between Iraq and Yemen, especially since Yemen
independently coordinated its unification while Iraq's occurred
during a military occupation. Still, the idea merits exploration and
study. Some scholars consider “Balkanization” a viable option as
well. It would be very similar process to regional federalism.
Yemen is the first arguable substantive experiment for democracy
in the Middle East. Yet, as it stands with its infrastructure
continuing to deteriorate, Salih refusing to resign, and disparate
factions in the movement, Yemen may fail as a state (Grosshans
2011). Democratization may be Yemen’s only option. The very
challenges of democratization may be the very problems that save it.
Some of the issues that states encounter in moving toward democracy
include “problems of diminished or contested sovereignty, poor state
capacity, and authoritarian legacies” (Ibid). These all prove to be
the case with Yemen, but this process can transform the state. It is
truly a “make it or break it” situation.
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