FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY CONSIDERS SIGNING A FREE AGENT:
An Analysis of Options
AN ACTION REPORT PROPOSAL SUBMITTED TO
THE FACULTY OF THE COLLEGE OF SOCIAL SCIENCES & PUBLIC POLICY
IN CANDIDACY FOR THE DEGREE OF
MASTER OF PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION
REUBIN O’ D. ASKEW SCHOOL
OF PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION AND POLICY
By
JOSHUA RAYMOND LECAPPELAIN
(440) 969-5465
August 1, 2015
TALLAHASSEE, FLORIDA
ABSTRACT
The Tampa Bay Rays desire a new baseball stadium. The team, which plays in Pinellas County, has expressed an interest in moving across the region to a new ballpark in Hillsborough County. Funding for this ballpark would hypothetically come from new and existing revenue streams, but it is difficult to figure out a clear path towards financing the stadium. This study looks at the history of the Rays in Tampa Bay, as well as funding of new stadiums in baseball’s recent history. Economists and academia nearly unanimously agree that funding stadiums is a bad business decision for any governing body, with most projects ultimately losing money over the course of the stadium’s lifespan. Information from baseball websites and the U.S. Census provides much of the data used. Consideration of three options for Hillsborough County – building in downtown Tampa, building elsewhere in the county, and declining to build a new stadium – using the evaluative criterions of cost to taxpayers, growth potential, and political support, leads to a recommendation of Hillsborough County passing on construction.
1
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Problem Statement 3
Background 5
Literature Review 11
Methodology 15
Policy Options 17
Summary Table 30
Appendix A – Stadium Cost 31
Appendix B – Public Percentage of Cost 32
Appendix C – Rising Cost of Stadiums 33
Appendix D – Attendance Before and After the New Stadium 34
Appendix E – Winning Percentage Before and After the New Stadium 35
Appendix F – Winning Effect on New Ballpark Attendance 36
Bibliography 37
2
PROBLEM STATEMENT
The long-term future of Major League Baseball’s (MLB) Tampa Bay Rays in the Tampa
Bay area is tenuous at best. The team wants a new stadium built to replace the aging Tropicana
Field in St. Petersburg. The believed preference of MLB and Rays’ ownership involves
relocating the team across Tampa Bay to a new home in downtown Tampa. While most privately
owned businesses move at their own discretion and do what is best for their bottom-line, the vast
majority of professional sports teams and their parent organizations expect and demand local
taxpayers, through their cities, counties, and states, to finance their majestic new sports
cathedrals. The Rays are no exception to this norm. Elected officials in Tampa and Hillsborough
County seem interested in pursuing the team and building them a new state-of-the-art ballpark,
but it is unclear if that is the best option for the citizens of Hillsborough County heading forward
and their future interest, as building a stadium would tie up many of their revenue streams.
Taxpayers largely pay for the financing of new stadiums. Florida’s other MLB team, the
Miami Marlins, opened a new stadium in 2012. Marlins Park cost more than $634 million to
build, with more than 80 percent of the funding coming from the city of Miami and Miami-Dade
County (Martin, Albergotti, & Futterman, 2011). This number does not include cost overruns,
which routinely occur when building new stadiums. It also does not include necessary
infrastructure improvements to the local area to accommodate the new ballpark and the increased
number of people in the area. These financial oversights and the burdens they bring, as well as
other expenses that inevitably pop up when building new stadia, fall on the same surrounding
cities and counties that finance the projects, not the team owners. These oversights, as well as
bad financing decisions, will ultimately cost taxpayers upwards of $2 billion (Elfrink, 2011).
Although estimates supplied by the Rays come near what Marlins Park cost (Nohlgren, 2015), it
3
is likely a new Rays stadium would be more than $600 million when considering factors beyond
just ballpark construction.
Some cities are still paying the price for building new stadiums decades after their
completion. Elected officials in Hamilton County, Ohio, voted in 1996 to increase the local sales
tax by a half-penny to help fund new stadiums for the National Football League’s Cincinnati
Bengals and MLB’s Cincinnati Reds. The expectation was that growth would continue to
increase at around 3 percent per year. In reality, this overly generous estimate led to a shortfall in
operating budgets and cuts in the local education system and other public infrastructure to close
the gap (Belson, 2009). Cleveland prioritized funding three new stadia during the 1990s while its
school system lost hundreds of millions of dollars and led to Cleveland school superintendent
Richard A. Boyd stating, “(our schools) are in the worst financial shape of any school district in
this country” (Cagan & deMause, 2008). The creation of two new stadiums in Baltimore’s Inner
Harbor area in the same decade led to the loss of one thousand manufacturing jobs where the
stadiums once stood (Cagan & deMause, 2008), and to this day costs taxpayers in the area $11
million annually (Hamilton & Kahn, n.d.). Similar stories are commonplace in cities that have
funded new stadia. The stress of these shortfalls resonates unfairly throughout the community, as
citizens with lower income and less upward mobility deal with making due with less, while
financing stadiums they cannot afford to go to for teams they may not care about in the first
place (Cagan & deMause, 2008).
Hillsborough County should consider the pros and cons of building the Rays a new
stadium before recklessly entering into a deal that jeopardizes the area’s long-term growth
potential. While the Rays would prefer a downtown stadium, it may be beneficial to
Hillsborough County to approve construction elsewhere in the county instead. Passing on
4
financing a new stadium for the Rays is a possibility as well. It is important that Hillsborough
County elected officials understand what they are getting their citizens into and realize the
impact of their decision will resonate in the county for generations.
BACKGROUND
In an effort to entice any MLB franchise away from its current home, St. Petersburg
financed the building of the Florida Suncoast Dome for $115 million, with the entire cost footed
by Pinellas County taxpayers. The domed stadium, completed in 1990, quickly became a favorite
of MLB owners, who threatened to pack up and move unless they had their stadium demands
met. The Chicago White Sox, Seattle Mariners, and San Francisco Giants each appeared headed
to the Tampa Bay at one time or another, but eventually found ways to get new stadiums built in
their cities. As the city tired of playing a bridesmaid, hope emerged in 1990 when MLB
announced it would be expanding to two new markets. While Tampa Bay was a finalist to land a
team, Denver and Miami ended up victorious, with the latter especially stinging due to its close
proximity. This reflected what then-MLB Commissioner Peter Ueberroth said in 1986 when,
discussing St. Petersburg’s plan to build a domed stadium, he stated, “In our evaluation of
potential cities for relocation or expansion, St. Petersburg is not among the top candidates. You
must recognize that (this decision) to undertake construction of a facility capable of housing
Major League Baseball will be made by your community without any encouragement
whatsoever on the part of Major League Baseball” (Bennett, 2012).
MLB’s feelings about Tampa Bay changed drastically over the next five years, as it
awarded St. Petersburg and Phoenix expansion teams in the next round. The stadium was no
longer vacant, however, as the National Hockey League’s Tampa Bay Lightning had begun
5
playing their games in the renamed Thunderdome. An additional $85 million, 79 percent funded
by taxpayers (Ballparks of Baseball, n.d.), would be required to renovate the stadium back to its
original baseball configuration in time for the new baseball team’s arrival.
On March 31, 1998, in the now-named Tropicana Field, Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays’
pitcher Wilson Alvarez threw the first pitch in team history. From that historic moment, the
Rays’ home was already outdated and inferior to new baseball stadiums popping up around the
country on an almost annual basis. Beginning with the opening of the Baltimore Orioles’ Orioles
Park at Camden Yards in 1992, the architectural design of new fields had reverted to a “retro”
look, capturing the feel of long-gone fields such as Brooklyn’s Ebbets Field, Cincinnati’s
Crosley Field, Pittsburgh’s Forbes Field, and Philadelphia’s Shibe Park, to name a few. Wider
seats, open areas, an abundance of food vendors, and picturesque views of city scenes had
become commonplace. Instead of being greeted by this new norm, Rays fans instead get to watch
“its baseball team (play) in a giant warehouse,” in a location that should instead “be hosting
millions of Fed-Ex packages” (Seher, 2012).
Almost immediately upon their birth into the baseball world, the Rays have sought a new
stadium to call home. The focus has largely centered on other locations in St. Petersburg and
Pinellas County, but rumors linked the team’s and MLB’s preference to be across Tampa Bay
and into a waterfront ballpark in downtown Tampa (Berthiaume, 2011). Repeatedly St.
Petersburg elected officials refused to even consider allowing the team to break their lease early
(it ends in 2027) to leave the area (Belson, 2012), most recently earlier this year (Nolhgren,
2015).
Such a move would greatly increase the number of fans located within 30 minutes of the
baseball team. Arguments suggest this is one of the most crucial factors in attendance numbers,
6
especially for weeknight games compared to weekend games. The Rays saw a 51.7 percent
increase in attendance on the weekends during the 2014 season, jumping to 21,692 fans per game
on the weekend versus 14,297 Monday-Thursday (Lortz, 2015). It is difficult for Hillsborough
County residents to travel to St. Petersburg during rush hour during the working week, which
hypothetically causes fans to skip going to games and instead enjoy them at home. Currently the
Rays have the lowest number of fans in MLB within 30 minutes of the stadium, with only
670,000 meeting that criterion. In comparison, the next lowest market is Pittsburgh, with 1.18
million fans within 30 minutes. If the team moved to Tampa, the number would increase to 1.24
million, which would put the Rays above Pittsburgh and Milwaukee, but still below every other
MLB city (Brown, 2011).
Elected officials in Tampa and Hillsborough County appear ready to open their
checkbooks and sign the Rays away from St. Petersburg and Pinellas County if the opportunity
becomes available. Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn admitted in 2013 that he wants the build the
team a new downtown stadium (Henderson, 2013). Buckhorn has called a downtown ballpark
“within reach,” and stated, “it’s either going to be Tampa or someplace else, not St. Petersburg,”
that is the Rays next home (Calcaterra, 2013). Different sites are under consideration, with a few
emerging as front-runners (Nohlgren, Danielson, & Thalji, 2014). If Pinellas County relents and
allows the Rays to look at options outside of the county, the Rays and Hillsborough County will
likely become fast friends.
The cost of a new Rays’ ballpark, regardless if located in Pinellas County or
Hillsborough County, will likely surpass $600 million. All of the last four stadiums built (minus
the New York Yankees’ new Yankee Stadium – an extreme outlier at nearly $1.5 billion) neared
or exceeded this figure. This is a huge increase from what Orioles Park at Camden Yards, Jacobs
7
Field, and the Ballpark at Arlington cost when they kicked off the ballpark boom era, even when
adjusted for inflation (See Appendix for bar charts on rising stadium costs). This also does not
include the development of the area around the ballpark, removing existing properties from the
selected location, or infrastructure improvements, such as adding or improving freeway exits,
that accompany stadium development. When the Miami Marlins were negotiating for their new
stadium, it was a necessity to have a retractable roof, given the unbearable summer humidity in
Florida. The Rays have played under a closed roof during their entire existence in St. Petersburg,
so the cost of a roof – be it fixed or retractable – should be factored into the estimate.
If the Rays were willing to purchase the stadium and the land themselves, there would be
no issue to consider. However, the funding of baseball stadiums has drastically changed in the
last 50 years. Previously team owners funded ballparks either entirely on their own or with
minimal government assistance. In the 1960s baseball teams began to relocate at a higher degree
than previously, with municipal areas offering huge incentives to “steal” teams away from their
established homes (Cagan & deMause, 2008), a trend continuing to this day. Since 1992,
taxpayers funded more than 70 percent of new ballparks. This figure does not include ballparks
for both New York City teams (the Yankees paid a large percentage as they wanted an overly
elaborate home, while the Mets built at the same time and could not secure a much better deal
than the Yankees), the San Francisco Giants (who lost referendums four times to have taxpayers
build a new stadium and decided to do it themselves), the Atlanta Braves (their stadium, built in
1996 for the Summer Olympics, was entirely funded by the Atlanta Olympic Committee, but is
being replaced already by the team after less than 20 seasons), and the St. Louis Cardinals (who
built in the footprint of their old stadium, so they could turn the old location into an
entertainment district they own).
8
Orioles P
ark at C
amden Yards
Jacobs F
ield (Progressi
ve Field)
Ballpark
in Arlington (G
lobe Life Park
in Arlington)
Coors Field
Bank One Ballp
ark (Chase
Field)
Safeco Field
Comerica Park
Enron Field (Minute M
aid Park)
PNC Park
Miller P
ark
Great Americ
an Ballpark
Citizens B
ank Park
Petco Park
Nationals Park
Target Field
Marlins P
ark0%
10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Stadium Financing Since 1992
Public Financing Private Financing
Cities and counties often own the ballparks, charging minimal rent to owners to play in
the stadiums and, often times, even giving the owners large percentages of the income from other
events held in the ballpark when the team does not have any home games. Owners also receive
the monies paid by corporations to brand the new stadiums, with those fees considered part to the
owner’s share of the construction costs (Cagan & deMause, 2008). It seems likely that the Rays’
will follow this trend, provided they remain in the Tampa Bay area.
As more teams talk taxpayers into building them new homes, the newness of the new
ballpark phenomenon has worn off. Whereas once a new ballpark all but guaranteed a large
attendance increase, now some teams are actually seeing attendance figures dip below what they
drew in the old ballpark after the end of the honeymoon period. A comparison of new ballpark
9
attendance figures and a team’s winning percentage found a strong correlation between larger
attendance and winning. (See appendix for scatterplot on winning percentage and attendance).
The price tag on a new ballpark will likely exceed $600 million. The Greater Tampa
Chamber of Commerce and the St. Petersburg Area Chamber of Commerce co-authored a
stadium finance summary in 2012 to investigate how funding a new stadium for the Rays (in
either of their respective counties) could work. The commission found some advantages to St.
Petersburg’s path to funding a new stadium, but came up with five ways that Hillsborough
County and Tampa could generate revenue to fund a stadium. These revenues included
community redevelopment area funds, pro sports facilities, community investment tax, auto
rental surcharge, and tourist development tax (The Baseball Stadium Financing Caucus, 2012).
The road to a new stadium appears much easier to navigate in Pinellas County, but that does not
mean Hillsborough County is without hope (Pransky, 2014). However, Mayor Buckhorn admits
that he does not know how to make the funding work, claiming that it will take a “creative” deal
to bring the Rays across Tampa Bay (Gurbal Kritzer, 2014).
The team seems committed to making it work somewhere in the region, but the rhetorical
games about the team’s future are well underway at this point. “Major League Baseball at this
point no longer believes in the Tampa Bay area,” stated Rays' owner Stu Sternberg in January
2013 (Keri, 2013). Sternberg went on to add that he still has faith in the region and is committed
to it, but he has to do what is best for the team. What is best for the team apparently includes
highly publicized flirting with the city of Montreal, which lost its MLB team in 2005 when the
Montreal Expos moved to Washington, D.C., and became the Washington Nationals. The New
York Daily Times reported in late 2014 that Sternberg had held high-profile talks with associates
about the possibility of crossing the Canadian border (Madden, 2014). MLB Commissioner Rob
10
Manfred publically stated a return to Quebec could happen, adding, “Montreal’s a great city. I
think with the right set of circumstances and the right facility, it is possible” (Nicholson-Smith,
2015). Montreal Mayor Denis Coderre met with Manfred in May 2015 about the possibility of a
team returning to the city, stating, “I want Montreal to gain back a team eventually…I clearly
wanted to show that it’s not just about gaining back a team — it’s about how can we get baseball
back to Montreal?” (Macramalla, 2015). While Coderre did not directly mention the Rays, it
appears clear that the team is on Montreal’s radar.
The Rays’ rumblings about their “need” for a new ballpark are growing louder and
louder. The team slashed payroll, bottoming out among the lowest 10 percent of teams in the
league in 2015 (Spotrac, n.d.). The team traded away star pitcher David Price last July, citing its
“challenging” financial situation as the reason for moving him (ESPN Wire Services, 2014). The
belt tightening of the Rays’ payroll will continue, according to Sternberg (Gaines, 2014). Fans
are going to lose, until the team gets what it wants. Even then, they might still be losing.
LITERATURE REVIEW
New stadiums do not stimulate economic growth (Delaney & Eckstein, Public dollars,
private stadiums: The battle over building sports stadiums, 2003). Economists are nearly
unanimous in agreeing that the economic benefits of stadium development are overrated and
often nonexistent. Robert Baade, one of the most prominent researchers on actual benefits of
stadium development, reviewed 48 cities over a 30-year span and found that a “professional
sports team generally have no significant impact on a metropolitan economy” (Baade, 1994). He
concluded that public funding of sports stadiums is not a “sound civic economic investment,”
and oftentimes had a negative effect on the community. Economist Dennis Zimmerman agrees
with Baade’s assessment, stressing in a report to Congress that stadium development results in
11
high opportunity cost for citizens (Zimmerman, 1996). He used a study of the economic impact
of 30 cities following stadium projects as evidence, finding no evidence in 27 of the cities. The
remaining three cities had negative impacts. The lone voices claiming that stadiums do create
positive economic impacts are those funded by the teams desiring new stadiums and are often
posted directly to the team’s websites (Conventions, Sports, and Leisure, 2009) (Cushman &
Wakefield, 2014).
Another area of consensus by economists and academia studying stadium development is
spending at and around the stadium being an example of substitution effect, not new spending.
This does not create a net increase in city or county tax revenue, it just shifts the location it
occurs at from elsewhere in the community to the stadium region (Delaney & Eckstein, Public
dollars, private stadiums: The battle over building sports stadiums, 2003). The only real increase
in a stadium development would be that from tourists to the city that only come because a
baseball team is there, which is estimated at between 5 and 20 percent of the fans at any
professional sporting event (Siegfriend & Zimbalist, 2000). Cagan and deMause (2008) build on
the substitution effect theory by discussing leakage, where the spending at the stadium actually
has a negative effect on the local economy, as it is not recirculated because the owner lives
elsewhere and does not put the money back into the local economy the way a local business
owner would.
Not only do stadium development projects not create economic growth in regions, they
do little economically for the citizens that fund their creation. “One should not anticipate that a
team or a facility by itself will either increase employment or raise per capita income in a
metropolitan area,” stated economics professor Andrew Zimbalist (Hare, 2014). Jasina and
Rotthoff (2008) found that, at the county level, “real per capita income falls when sports
12
franchises are present.” Their three key findings were no creation exists, that they just move
between different industries; that payrolls decrease; and that total employment and payroll of a
county are independent of the existence of a sports franchise (Jasina & Rotthoff, 2008). Coates
and Humphreys (2000) found that “the impact of an existing baseball franchise playing in a
stadium of average size is a reduction in real per capita income of over $850 per year below the
average level of income across cities,” in their 37-city sample. Given this type of information, it
is little wonder “many economists argue that public investments in new factories and schools
would generate greater and longer-term economic returns to the community than investments in
new stadiums and arenas” (Clark, 2014).
Baade compares stadium development to Pascal’s Wager, where “we believe that there is
an economic impact because we really can’t take the chance that there isn’t one” (Cagan &
deMause, 2008). This is faulty, though, as there is an economic impact that always occurs when
building a new stadium – an impact belonging entirely to a team’s ownership. Focusing on how
new stadium’s help owners increase their profits, as well as the value of their teams, is not the
best message to send to taxpayers. Therefore, the rhetorical strategies have shifted somewhat to
something more palatable to taxpayers (Sapotichne, 2012). While some claims of economic
booms with stadium development still exist, increasingly the debate focuses more on social
benefits brought on by building a new ballpark (Wilhelm, 2008).
Painting the debate in this light is advantageous to team owners. The value of these
impacts is largely unknown (Chapin, 2002), but are known to exist. They include a sense of
community in attending a game together, identifying with the local team, experiencing the ups-
and-downs of competition, a feeling of living in a “major league” area, and sports as a local
amenity, to name a few (Coates, 2007). As the value of them is hard to ascertain, difficulty exists
13
in measuring their impact and importance when deciding on stadium funding. There is no clear
answer, although attempts are underway to reach some level of understanding (Coates &
Humphreys, 2008). This shift away from looking at economic benefits and costs towards social
benefits is increasing in the public debate over stadium subsidies (Sapotichne, 2012). An
example of this occurred with the National Football League’s Seattle Seahawks and their
(successful) attempt to get a new stadium built in the late 20th century. A study of articles written
in 1997 in support of the new stadium rhetorically focused 81 percent on the social value of
building a new stadium, with the remaining articles giving the economic and social values equal
weight. The opponents of the stadium reacted in the opposite manner, with 90 percent of the
articles written focusing on the economic cost to the county, with the other 10 percent dealing
with the social cost.
Delaney and Eckstein (2003) credit the surge in stadium subsidies in the strength of local
growth coalitions. They claim that these coalitions serve as the “arbiters of what economic
growth should look like in a community,” and that they collaborate with local governments, who
implement policies to “facilitate the coalition’s vision of economic growth, especially when tax
dollars are contributing to that vision.” The appeal to the growth coalition is using sports as an
incentive to attract new talent to their organizations. Individuals affiliated with successful growth
coalitions state that attracting top talent to cities can be hard, but can be helped by trips to a
stadium’s luxury box (Delaney & Eckstein, Public dollars, private stadiums: The battle over
building sports stadiums, 2003). Luxury seating is the one area of economic growth potential
most apparent in new ballparks, as owners look to find more ways to get corporations to spend
more inside their doors (Cagan & deMause, 2008). However, stadiums do not attract new
14
businesses to a community, claims Baade (as cited by Bennett, 2012). Instead, the local tax
climate drives corporate growth.
These local growth coalitions, in partnership with elected officials, are willing to put their
money where their mouths are to get new stadiums built. When anti-stadium groups rise up to
combat the “corporate welfare” being offered to team owners (Cagan & deMause, 2008), they
are outspent to tremendous degrees (Coates, 2007). An example of this appeared when Seattle
Seahawks owner Paul Allen financed a statewide referendum for a new stadium for his team at
the cost of $4.2 million (Cagan & deMause, 2008). With his measure up for a vote, Allen spent
almost $6 million in support of the stadium, whereas his opponents spent $160,000 – a 37.5:1
ratio (Fort, 1999). This is commonplace when strong growth coalitions come out in support of
stadium development (Delaney & Eckstein, 2003).
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
The majority of secondary data sources used include baseball-centric websites.
Attendance, win-loss records, costs of stadiums, and the breakdown of funding (public/private)
are included in this data. Usage of U.S. Census data supports growth trends and the increased
number of fans within 30 minutes of the ballpark with a move. Suggested funding sources, as
well as their potential financial contributions, also are relied upon (deMause, 2012).
Estimating the total cost of a stadium can be difficult, given cost overruns and other
expenses that are funded by taxpayers, but not directly linked to the stadium development (such
as adding new interstate exits to accommodate increased traffic). As current estimates for the
new Rays’ stadium approach $600 million, this evaluation adds a $50 million buffer to better
15
estimate total costs. This buffer may be lower than is actually needed (i.e. Marlins Park added
more than $100 million in overruns during its construction).
Another factor complicating the data is performance measures. Building a new stadium
does not guarantee increased attendance. Estimating a team’s future performance is difficult,
especially when its payroll may increase substantially, moderately, or even decrease when it
moves into a new stadium. This project will not make assumptions on the Rays’ winning
percentage in its new stadium and will instead use data from teams that have moved to new
fields since 1992.
One of the main benefits of building a new stadium is its social benefits. This is also the
hardest benefit to estimate and evaluate, as it immeasurable, abstract, and can largely be
unknown even to those people experiencing it. This is another limitation in this study, and serves
as a “tie-breaker” of sorts, if the decision to recommend creation of a new stadium is on the
borderline.
A final limitation of the project directly linked to social benefits is the possibility that the
team leaves the Tampa Bay region if no ballpark is constructed. A reluctance to move teams out
of their established markets is increasingly common in MLB (with some exceptions). The
evaluation will consider this possibility, but consider it less likely than Pinellas County building
the Rays a new stadium if Hillsborough County passes.
The main evaluative criterion is cost. Using the secondary data mentioned, as well as
estimates from how a new stadium could be funded in Tampa or elsewhere in Hillsborough
County, (The Baseball Stadium Financing Caucus, 2012), this project tests the feasibility of
funding a new ballpark. Consideration of additional possible revenue streams occurs if funding
options do not meet the $650 million threshold.
16
A secondary evaluative criterion is growth potential. Building a new stadium presents
benefits and challenges to Hillsborough County’s future. Each of the policy options considered
weighs the future of the county and if building a ballpark affects that future. Tampa’s downtown
development plan, as well as the Hillsborough and Nebraska Corridor Plan, provides structure
and support to this section (InVision Tampa, 2012). As these are approved visions for Tampa
and Hillsborough County’s future, a major development plan such as this should fit into the
plans.
The final evaluative criterion is political feasibility. Each of the three plans needs the
support of elected officials, even if only to state they will not be pursuing a new ballpark in the
county. Ideally, Tampa and/or Hillsborough County residents would support the selected plan as
well, although this is often not the case when stadiums are funded (Delaney & Eckstein, Public
dollars, private stadiums: The battle over building sports stadiums, 2003). Elected officials’
support and concern over building a new ballpark is already on the public record.
POLICY OPTIONS
Building a new stadium in Tampa
Building a new baseball stadium for the Rays in downtown Tampa appears to be MLB
and the team’s desired outcome. That does not mean they will be cutting Hillsborough County a
break though. The building of baseball stadiums, minus four outliers1, received 70.3 percent
1 The four outliers are New York City (twice), St. Louis, and San Francisco. The New York Yankees wanted to build a stadium to trump all other stadiums. Their stadium cost double the amount of any other stadium considered. Along with the Mets, there were limits on the funds offered to each team by the city by then-Mayor Mike Bloomberg. Bloomberg’s predecessor, Rudy Giuliani, offered totally funding new $800 million stadiums for each team in one of his last acts in office. Bloomberg spoke out against it and refused to let it happen. The San Francisco Giants tried four times to get San Francisco city and county residents to build them a new stadium, with rejection occurring each time. The team finally gave up and agreed to build using private funds. The St. Louis Cardinals took less state and city funding in exchange for favorable terms in building a new stadium and entertainment district next to the new stadium.
17
public funding since 1992. Using that as a projection for what the Rays could receive from
taxpayers in moving to Hillsborough County, an estimated public contribution of more than $456
million is required to fund a stadium project. This monetary figure, using 2015 dollars (Federal
Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, 2015), represents a larger cost to taxpayers than all but three other
stadium projects evaluated.
The Greater Tampa Chamber of Commerce developed five potential revenue types that
could raise capital for a new Rays stadium (The Baseball Stadium Financing Caucus, 2012)
using a zero percent growth rate. This growth rate, and the figures it produced, is overly cautious.
The caucus listed revenue streams by their feasibility, beginning with community redevelopment
area funds. Based on their findings, these funds would generate $13 million annually, with a
funding capacity of up to $115 million dollars over 30 years (estimation of all funding capacities
occurs over this same period).
The second revenue stream is a $2 million annual subsidy from the state of Florida to
professional sports teams that reside in the state. This stream has an estimated revenue capacity
of $37 million. Recent developments leave this stream in flux, however, as efforts are underway
to change how teams receive the subsidy. SB 1216 became a law in May 2015. It is too early to
suggest how it will work for a variety of sports teams, but stadium experts believe it will increase
the state money available to teams (Pransky, 2015). Tampa Bay’s two other sports teams, the
National Football League’s (NFL) Buccaneers and the National Hockey League’s Lightning,
currently receive this subsidy.
The third revenue stream is a community investment tax. Under this revenue stream, the
new stadium project receives a portion of the five-cent Hillsborough-wide tax. Estimated yearly
revenue of this stream is $6 million, with a funding capacity of up to $80 million. Current
18
spending levels form this estimate. If the Rays were to cross the bay, it is likely this number
would increase somewhat based on their relocation. While economists nearly-unanimously agree
that building a new stadium does not create new economic growth, in this circumstance 100
percent of the spending would move from Pinellas County to Hillsborough County.
The final two revenue streams are aimed at Tampa Bay tourists - a new five-cent
surcharge on all car rentals in Hillsborough County, and a one-cent tax increase (to six cents) on
hotels and rental properties in Hillsborough County. These options are very popular in stadium
funding, for the perceived reason of non-residents being affected, not local taxpayers. However,
experts believe this overlooks car rentals by residents, as well as hotel rentals by residents as
well (Bennett, 2012). The auto rental surcharge estimates at a yearly revenue stream of $9.5
million and a $150 million funding capacity, while the tourist development tax estimates at $3.5
million annually and up to $45 million in total. Hillsborough County is currently not eligible for
the sixth cent tourist development tax increase, as currently only counties deemed to have high
tourism rates can impose the increase. Hillsborough County should cross this threshold in the
near future, potentially within three years (Thalji, 2014).
Using these estimates, with both low and high estimations, we arrive at revenue sources
of between $383 million and $427 million. A funding deficit of at least $30 million occurs under
this estimate. It is possible the Rays pay this gap, but history suggests it is more likely MLB
sticks taxpayers with the burden, given the league's track record. The caucus, and Mayor
Buckhorn, deemphasized imposing any new taxes on Hillsborough residents to make this
stadium projected possible, however, so any additional revenue stream would need to either
break those vows or operate outside of them (Nohlgren, 2012). If the city and county were to
19
sign a contract with the Rays making the team responsible for all cost overruns directly related to
the stadium, the funding may be possible as is.
There are drawbacks to using these revenue streams for building a new ballpark. Any
spending of tax dollars creates an opportunity cost, overlooking other viable options. Tapping
these streams would affect their future usage, up to and including negating any additional when
the next major project needs funding. Tampa and Hillsborough County must also consider a
likely reaction that will occur if they build a new stadium for the Rays – that their current
residents, the NFL’s Buccaneers, will likely want a new stadium as well. Since 1992, almost
unanimously spending on one stadium leads to spending on another. Only Washington, DC, has
not experienced any public requests for a new stadium for their football team since building the
baseball team a new stadium. Rumors suggest that will change in the near future, however, as the
NFL’s Redskins reportedly want a new stadium to replace 18-year-old FedEx Field (Steinberg,
2015). If Tampa and Hillsborough County struggle to find financing for a $650 million baseball
field, how are they going to secure similar funding for a new football stadium?
N/A No Renovation Requested Yes0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
New Football Stadium Built Same Time/After Baseball Park
20
A new stadium in downtown Tampa is the best option for growth potential, according to
Buckhorn (Gurbal Kritzer, 2014). Some disagreement exists between experts in this regard
theoretically, however. Arthur C. Nelson, University of Utah Metropolitan Research Center
director, states, “The farther away from downtown you get, the greater the likelihood of local
economic failure, even if the team does well” (Jacobson, 2015). Other experts suggest that new
ballparks are not what drives growth, but rather succeed when they are used as a capstone to
existing development plans, such as with Baltimore’s Inner Harbor revitalization and the creation
of Oriole Park at Camden Yards (Delaney & Eckstein, Public dollars, private stadiums: The
battle over building sports stadiums, 2003). Lightning Owner Jeff Vinik owns massive amounts
of land near Amalie Arena (where his team plays) and has advanced a $1 billion development
plan for the area (Thalji, 2014). While building a new Rays stadium on his land appears unlikely
(Danielson & Nohlgren, 2014), building it near his development and in conjunction with it could
help Tampa’s downtown become the thriving 24/7 neighborhood it longs to become (Gurbal
Kritzer, 2015). Mayor Buckhorn prefers to use land in Ybor City, however, and it is less likely
that would provide the same growth potential. Both plans would mesh with the Tampa Center
City Plan developed by InVision Tampa.
Delaney and Eckstein (2003) stress that local growth coalitions are instrumental in
getting new stadiums built. This is an area that Tampa and Hillsborough County struggle in, as of
the six Fortune 1000 Companies based in the Tampa Bay region, only two – WellCare Health
Plans, Inc., and Blooming Brands, Inc. – are located within the county. While other corporations
have local offices in the county, they are unlikely to be as invested in the growth of Tampa’s
21
entertainment scene. By contrast, Pinellas County has three Fortune 1000 companies within its
borders – Raymond James Financial, Inc., Jabil Circuit, Inc., and Tech Data Corporation.
Public support from Tampa and Hillsborough County officials for a building a new Rays
stadium is ample and obvious (Hobson, 2014). Taxpayers are another story. A 2013 poll found a
large gap among Tampa voters in funding a new stadium with public subsidies (Pransky, 2013),
with 56 percent of voters against using them, to 36 percent in favor. When pressed about their
preferences for using available revenues, the stadium option polled below homeless solutions,
transportation projects, and increased police and fire support. The team’s performance has
plummeted since that poll, making it possible that the difference between the two sides has
increased in favor of those against using public subsidies. Fan support has decreased to the point
that the Rays are now the fourth-most popular MLB team among Tampa Bay fans (Lortz, 2015).
While elected officials may desire creating a new ballpark for the Rays, their constituents are less
enthusiastic. If taxpayers vote on any of these measures via public referendum, much work
remains to garner public support.
Building a stadium for the Rays in Tampa seems to be the most likely outcome of the
three scenarios, but it is not a sure thing. As soon as the team can negotiate with Hillsborough
County, development of a real, comprehensive plan explaining funding and an overall scope for
the stadium must occur. Taxpayers, whose support is important of any plan, need to realize what
they are getting themselves into and have realistic expectations of what developing a stadium
would do for their city. If experts are correct, the answer to that question is likely very little.
Building a new stadium elsewhere in Hillsborough County
22
Since construction began on Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, MLB’s location
preference is in the heart of the team’s city. Only two new stadiums – Miller Park in Milwaukee
and Globe Life Park in Arlington, Texas – are located outside of city limits. In both of those
cases, land previously used as parking lots for the team's old homes became the new footprints
for these new stadiums. The most recent stadium built, Marlins Park in Miami, was strategically
position in Miami’s “Little Havana” neighborhood in the hope of spurring development in the
area. This has not happened yet, to say the least. Immediately upon leaving Marlins Park, low-
income housing, parking garages, and a few new apartments and condominiums surround fans.
Cash flows in the area occur inside the stadium, not in the neighborhood (Elfrink, 2011).
City County0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Location of New Ballparks
Funding a new stadium outside of Tampa would be difficult. The same revenue streams
mentioned previously could apply, except for the community redevelopment funds. A downtown
Tampa district would generate those funds, and it is unlikely that Mayor Buckhorn would allow
them to go to a new stadium outside of the city. That leaves an additional $115 million shortfall
on top of the minimum of $30 million missing previously. Sternberg seems interested in a
23
downtown stadium (be it in Tampa or St. Petersburg), so getting him to cover the shortfall seems
unlikely.
Other potential funding sources mentioned by Tampa lawyer Ron Weaver (whom
Buckhorn asked for ideas) include EB-5 money and Federal New Markets Tax Credits
(deMause, 2013). EB-5 money comes from foreign investors seeking to earn the rights to
immigrate to the United States with their families. Other stadium projects dubiously used this
stream to secure funding. (Sasso, 2012). It is unknown how much potential revenue this program
could create, but estimates put it well below $100 million. It also appears that Hillsborough
County officials would prefer using EB-5 money in other directions (Nohlgren, 2012). The
federal government approves Federal New Markets Tax Credits, designating the credits to go to
low-income communities. President Barack Obama desires removing tax benefits aimed at
building new ballparks for billionaires out of taxpayer’s wallets, so this revenue source may be
drying up quickly (Temple-West, 2015). Even if these options were possible, funding in
Hillsborough County outside of Tampa appears to be difficult.
While the growth potential around new ballparks is questionable at best (Buckman &
Mack, 2012), no attempts to build a ballpark outside of a city to spur development have occurred
during the period observed. Investigating potential locations outside of Tampa for a new stadium
makes sense, if it fits into a greater growth plan for an area. Plant City and Temple Terrance are
the only other two cities located in Hillsborough County, while Brandon is the biggest area in
population after Tampa. None of those places appears ready to take on a project of this size, as
well as all the infrastructure improvements that would be necessary to accommodate the
ballpark.
24
In 2008, an updated version of the Future of Hillsborough Comprehensive Plan for
Unincorporated Hillsborough County became legally enforceable. The plan, a 20-year
framework, serves as a guidepost for land use and growth (Hillsborough County City-County
Planning Commission, n.d.). The vision of planning commission’s long-range plan, Imagine
Hillsborough 2040, includes high-levels of growth along Interstates 4 and 75. An argument in
support of a stadium project to bring people east of Tampa makes a certain degree of sense
(ignoring all the literature that states stadiums creating growth is a myth), but also raises
problems from the Rays’ perspective. The team currently feels too far away from its fan base.
The further east Hillsborough County builds a ballpark, the further away the Rays become from
their Pinellas County fans, which hypothetically cuts down on the fan base likely to attend games
during the week. Sternberg likely would be reluctant to spend more money to move further away
from his prospective fan base, causing Hillsborough County to pay a larger percentage of the
development costs.
With any stadium developments in Tampa or elsewhere in Hillsborough County, the
question of increasing social benefits arises. These social benefits appear already to be in place in
the Tampa Bay region. Increasingly proponents use these benefits to garner support, as thus far
academia finds them immeasurable. The team identifies already as the Tampa Bay Rays and a
move to Tampa would probably not see a name change (both the Lightning and Buccaneers list
"Tampa Bay" as their hometown). Passionate fans that identify with the team already exist. Some
increased support of the team is likely (just as some decreased support from Pinellas County
fans), but it seems reasonable to suggest the social benefits of having a “hometown” team
already exist in Hillsborough County. Social benefits are more likely to increase if the team is
25
performing at a higher level of sustained success than moving 20 miles across the Tampa Bay,
something impossible to guarantee before agreeing to construction.
Mayor Buckhorn largely drives the he push to bring the Rays to Hillsborough County. It
is hard to imagine a scenario where the team moves to somewhere in Hillsborough County and
he supports it. Per reports, Buckhorn sees bringing the Rays to Tampa as part of his legacy in the
area (Henderson, 2013). While Hillsborough County commissioners may still support the deal,
having such a large, vocal voice against the deal could evaporate local support, which already is
lacking.
Weighing all the evidence, there appears to be little reason to consider any areas outside
of Tampa. The cost of construction rises, the potential fans attending games decreases, the
growth potential shrinks, the political support evaporates, and the social benefits remain largely
the same.
Declining to build a new stadium
Hillsborough County is not required to build the Rays a new ballpark. Funding stadium
projects is bad business for communities, according to research from economists and academia,
citing low return on the investment. Elected officials should consider how the lives of the
taxpayers that voted them into office would be different if they forgo a stadium project. Two
paths emerge when considering this option – either Pinellas County builds a new stadium for the
Rays or the team leaves the region. Both options are possible, but baseball’s history suggests that
every effort to keep the team in Tampa Bay rather than relocating it to a baseball-hungry city
such as Montreal is likely.
26
The revenue streams suggested for funding ballpark construction exist independently of
the proposed stadium concept. Stated differently, Hillsborough County does not lose any of those
revenue streams if it decides to go in a different direction. Voters in Tampa prefer other
alternatives to a new ballpark according to Pransky (2013). If academia is correct and stadium
projects create little economic growth, there would be little opportunity cost experienced by
passing on the new stadium. Then, spending the money on quality-of-life improvements, such as
new parks or libraries, or improving infrastructure, is possible. Those revenue streams would
also still be available when the NFL’s Buccaneers eventually want a new stadium, which should
occur within the next 10 years. Experts state that Super Bowls are the one professional sporting
event that brings significant financial growth into an area (Peter, 2015). Tampa served as the host
of the Super Bowl four times previously, and the NFL often rewards cities that build new NFL
stadiums by awarding them Super Bowl games. Building a convertible or domed NFL stadium
would also increase the chance that other large sporting events such as the NCAA Men’s Final
Four Basketball Championship, FIFA’s World Cup, World Wrestling Entertainment’s annual
WrestleMania (dubbed the Super Bowl of Wrestling), or the NCAA College Football National
Championship Game. A new baseball stadium would not be able to host any of those events.
The social benefits impact of the Rays moving to a new stadium in Pinellas County from
Tropicana Field would be minimal to Hillsborough County residents. Depending on the
stadium’s location, their travel time to games is unlikely to increase. The team’s name probably
would not change. Rays’ games would still air on local television and be covered by Tampa
newspapers. If the team were to relocate, the social benefit impact intensifies greatly. However,
Tampa and Hillsborough County residents would have many positives in their lives, including
two other professional sports teams. “We don’t need a new stadium. There are plenty of cities
27
that have great stadiums but they don’t have a beach, great weather, Disney (amusement parks),
and everything else Tampa Bay has to offer,” stated Jeff Berlinicke, Clearwater Gazette writer,
in a 2014 editorial. Spending of other social benefits could surge if a stadium is not funded,
which potentially could provide a greater social benefit to the county.
Spending money in other ways could also positively influence Hillsborough County’s
growth potential. Evidence shows us that stadium development projects do little for a region’s
economic growth (with a few exceptions). Current growth plans for downtown Tampa and
unincorporated Hillsborough County do not include references to a new ballpark for the Rays. It
is more likely that building a stadium would require a reworking of those plans than it is that a
stadium would augment them nicely. It is hard to forecast growth potential without the stadium
project without knowing how the where the money goes instead.
Political support from elected officials appears in support of the stadium project, but
Mayor Buckhorn also appears realistic in his belief that obtaining funding will be difficult. It
seems likely that political support for declining to fund a new ballpark would increase when
elected officials realize the relatively few benefits and large costs to funding these projects.
Taxpayers historically vote the politicians that support stadium projects out of office (Elfrink,
2011). Not wanting financial burden in the future, taxpayers already appear opposed to funding a
new stadium (although certainly Tampa/Hillsborough County fans of the team would like to
have it located closer than St. Petersburg). Knowing how Hillsborough County spends the money
alternatively improves the ability to forecast in this area.
Of the three options presented, passing on a stadium seems to make the most sense for
Hillsborough County. It keeps potential revenue streams open and eliminates large future
burdens for taxpayers, while keeping potential physical spaces open for better growth options.
28
Social benefits will not change much if the team stays in St. Petersburg. If the team relocates,
however, there is a substantial drop in social benefits. However, the negative social impact of the
team leaving the region is not reason enough to build a new stadium. Hillsborough County
officials should heed the words Miami-Dade County Commissioner Javier Souto, who initially
supported funding Marlins Park. After seeing the burden funding left his county with, he
changed his tune. "I told (former Miami-Dade County mayor) Alex Penelas years ago when I
met (Marlins owner) Jeffrey Loria: 'This guy only cares about the money, not us, not the county,
not the people. There were so many promises about all the things that would be happening
around the stadium, in Little Havana, and I haven't seen anything…The best thing that could
happen is for this ownership group to get the hell out of here for the good of the community”
(Munzenrieder, 2012).
29
SUMMARY TABLE
Cost Growth Potential Political
Feasibility
Summary
Evaluation
Building in
downtown
Tampa
Possible, but
requires flexibility
Possible in right
area, harder in
others
High political,
mediocre public
support
This is the best
location to build a
new stadium, if
building occurs.
Doing so will be
financially difficult.
Benefits are more
likely from a social
aspect than an
economic aspect.
Building elsewhere
in Hillsborough
County
Difficult Less likely Mediocre political,
mediocre public
support
Building a stadium
in Hillsborough
County anywhere
besides Tampa
seems impossible
and foolish.
Declining to build
a new stadium
None
(Opportunity cost)
Depends on
alternative plans
Low political,
medium-high public
support
This is the best
option for
Hillsborough
County in terms of
financial stability
and growth
potential.
Recommended.
30
31
APPENDIX A – Stadium Cost
Stadium (New Name) City Year Built Cost (mil) 2015 Cost (mil)Oriole Park at Camden Yards Baltimore 1992 96.0% $ 100.0 $ 170.8 $ 164.0 $ 6.8 Jacobs Field (Progressive Field) Cleveland 1994 48.0% $ 175.0 $ 283.0 $ 135.8 $ 147.2 Ballpark in Arlington (Globe Life Park in Arlington) Arlington 1994 71.0% $ 191.0 $ 308.9 $ 219.3 $ 89.6 Coors Field Denver 1995 78.0% $ 215.0 $ 338.2 $ 263.8 $ 74.4 Turner Field Atlanta 1997 0.0% $ 235.0 $ 350.9 $ - $ 350.9 Bank One Ballpark (Chase Field) Phoenix 1998 68.0% $ 349.0 $ 513.2 $ 349.0 $ 164.2 Safeco Field Seattle 1999 66.0% $ 517.6 $ 744.8 $ 491.6 $ 253.2 Comerica Park Detroit 2000 38.0% $ 300.0 $ 417.6 $ 158.7 $ 258.9 Pacific Bell Park (AT&T Park) San Francisco 2000 4.0% $ 357.0 $ 497.0 $ 19.9 $ 477.1 Enron Field (Minute Maid Park) Houston 2000 68.0% $ 250.0 $ 348.0 $ 236.6 $ 111.4 PNC Park Pittsburgh 2001 70.0% $ 262.0 $ 354.7 $ 248.3 $ 106.4 Miller Park Milwaukee 2001 77.5% $ 400.0 $ 541.5 $ 419.7 $ 121.8 Great American Ballpark Cincinnati 2003 86.0% $ 325.0 $ 423.5 $ 364.2 $ 59.3 Citizens Bank Park Philadelphia 2004 50.0% $ 346.0 $ 439.1 $ 219.6 $ 219.6 Petco Park San Diego 2004 57.0% $ 456.8 $ 579.7 $ 330.4 $ 249.3 Busch Stadium III St. Louis 2006 12.0% $ 365.0 $ 434.0 $ 52.1 $ 381.9 Nationals Park Washington D.C. 2008 100.0% $ 611.0 $ 680.2 $ 680.2 $ - Citi Field New York City 2009 27.0% $ 600.0 $ 670.4 $ 181.0 $ 489.4 Yankee Stadium II New York City 2009 17.0% $ 1,300.0 $ 1,452.4 $ 246.9 $ 1,205.5 Target Field Minneapolis 2010 72.0% $ 544.4 $ 598.4 $ 430.8 $ 167.6 Marlins Park Miami 2012 80.0% $ 634.0 $ 653.3 $ 522.7 $ 130.7
SUM 1185.5% $ 8,533.8 $ 10,799.6 $ 5,734.5 $ 5,065.1 AVERAGE 59.3% $ 426.7 $ 540.0 $ 286.7 $ 238.0
Public Percentage
Gov't $ 2015 (mil)
Private Sector $ 2015 (mil)
APPENDIX B – Public Percentage of Cost
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Public Percentage of Cost
Public Percentage
APPENDIX C – Rising Cost of Stadiums
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Jacobs Field (Progressive Field)
Ballpark in Arlington (Globe Life Park in Arlington)
Coors Field
Turner Field
Bank One Ballpark (Chase Field)
Safeco Field
Comerica Park
Pacific Bell Park (AT&T Park)
Enron Field (Minute Maid Park)
PNC Park
Miller Park
Great American Ballpark
Citizens Bank Park
Petco Park
Busch Stadium III
Nationals Park
Citi Field
Yankee Stadium II
Target Field
Marlins Park
$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600
Rising Cost of Stadiums
2015 Cost (mil)
34
APPENDIX D – Attendance Before and After the New Stadium
City 5 years before Before Average After Average Net ChangeBaltimore 22,386 20,759 31,299 24,815 43,034 44,475 45,816 44,442 19,627 Cleveland 15,871 15,126 12,828 14,608 42,034 42,806 42,820 42,553 27,945 Arlington 25,234 25,096 28,367 26,232 36,361 36,141 34,216 35,573 9,340 Denver N/A N/A N/A - 46,823 42,976 40,681 43,493 43,493 Atlanta 37,993 47,960 46,168 44,040 39,930 34,858 32,142 35,643 (8,397)Phoenix N/A N/A N/A - 33,783 39,494 34,636 35,971 35,971 Seattle 25,096 22,510 33,628 27,078 43,740 40,352 35,863 39,985 12,907 Detroit 16,402 14,427 16,854 15,894 16,892 23,667 24,993 21,851 5,956 San Francisco 17,243 17,243 20,875 18,454 40,307 39,718 39,272 39,766 21,312 Houston 18,942 24,394 25,269 22,868 30,299 38,122 34,627 34,349 11,481 Pittsburgh 16,652 20,457 19,271 18,793 19,750 22,435 22,982 21,722 2,929 Milwaukee 16,385 18,050 22,365 18,933 25,462 27,297 28,835 27,198 8,265 Cincinnati 22,144 25,137 31,431 26,237 26,353 25,415 25,415 25,728 (510)Philadelphia 22,535 19,911 22,001 21,482 38,374 42,254 44,453 41,694 20,211 San Diego 31,155 29,043 29,360 29,853 34,445 29,970 23,699 29,371 (481)St. Louis 37,922 37,182 35,931 37,012 41,275 40,756 38,197 40,076 3,064 Washington D.C. N/A N/A 33,728 33,728 24,256 29,269 32,746 28,757 (4,971)New York City 28,629 34,937 41,723 35,096 27,689 26,366 26,528 26,861 (8,235)New York City 46,609 50,502 52,445 49,852 43,733 40,489 41,995 42,072 (7,780)Minneapolis 25,114 28,210 28,350 27,225 30,588 27,785 27,546 28,640 1,415 Miami 16,920 16,482 18,075 17,159 21,759 N/A N/A 21,759 4,600
- - - Average 24,624 25,968 28,946 26,513 33,661 36,560 35,656 35,292 8,780
4 years before
3 years before
3 years after
4 years after
5 years after
(Ongoing – As of 7/29/15)
APPENDIX E –Winning Percentage Before and After the New Stadium
City Net ChangeBaltimore 41.4% 33.5% 53.7% 42.9% 49.3% 54.3% 60.5% 54.7% 11.8%Cleveland 45.1% 47.5% 35.2% 42.6% 53.4% 54.9% 59.9% 56.1% 13.5%Arlington 51.2% 51.2% 52.5% 51.6% 47.5% 54.3% 57.6% 53.1% 1.5%Denver N/A N/A 41.4% 41.4% 47.5% 44.4% 50.6% 47.5% 6.1%Atlanta 60.5% 64.2% 59.6% 61.4% 58.6% 54.3% 63.1% 58.7% -2.8%Phoenix N/A N/A N/A N/A 56.8% 60.5% 51.9% 56.4% N/ASeattle 43.8% 54.5% 52.8% 50.4% 57.4% 57.4% 38.9% 51.2% 0.9%Detroit 41.7% 32.7% 48.8% 41.1% 26.5% 44.4% 43.8% 38.2% -2.8%San Francisco 46.5% 42.0% 55.6% 48.0% 62.1% 56.2% 46.3% 54.9% 6.8%Houston 52.8% 50.6% 51.9% 51.8% 53.7% 56.8% 54.9% 55.1% 3.4%Pittsburgh 45.1% 48.8% 42.6% 45.5% 44.7% 41.4% 41.4% 42.5% -3.0%Milwaukee 49.4% 48.4% 45.7% 47.8% 41.6% 50.0% 46.3% 46.0% -1.9%Cincinnati 47.5% 58.9% 52.5% 53.0% 49.4% 44.4% 45.7% 46.5% -6.5%Philadelphia 47.5% 40.1% 53.1% 46.9% 54.9% 56.8% 57.4% 56.4% 9.5%San Diego 45.7% 46.9% 48.8% 47.1% 54.6% 38.9% 46.3% 46.6% -0.5%St. Louis 57.4% 59.9% 52.5% 56.6% 56.2% 53.1% 55.6% 55.0% -1.6%Washington D.C. 51.2% 41.4% 50.0% 47.5% 49.7% 60.5% 53.1% 54.4% 6.9%New York City 43.8% 51.2% 59.9% 51.6% 45.7% 45.7% 48.8% 46.7% -4.9%New York City 62.3% 58.6% 59.9% 60.3% 58.6% 52.5% 51.9% 54.3% -5.9%Minneapolis 51.2% 59.3% 48.8% 53.1% 40.7% 43.2% 52.5% 45.5% -7.6%Miami 43.8% 52.2% 53.7% 49.9% 42.0% N/A N/A 42.0% -7.9%
Average 48.8% 49.6% 51.0% 49.8% 50.0% 51.2% 51.3% 50.6% 0.8%
5 years before
4 years before
3 years before
Before Average
3 years after
4 years after
5 years after
After Average
(Ongoing – As of 7/29/15)
36
APPENDIX F – Winning Effect on New Ballpark Attendance
(20,000) (10,000) - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
Winning Effect on New Ballpark Attendance
Winning effect on new ballpark at -tendance
37
BibliographyBaade, R. (1994, April 4). Stadiums, professional sports, and economic development: Assessing the
reality. Retrieved from Heartlander Magazine: http://news.heartland.org/sites/all/modules/custom/heartland_migration/files/pdfs/3075.pdf
Ballparks of Baseball. (n.d.). Tropicana Field. Retrieved from Ballparks of Baseball: http://www.ballparksofbaseball.com/al/TropField.htm
Belson, K. (2009, September 20). In lean times, Miami pays most of cost for new ballpark. Retrieved from New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/21/sports/baseball/21marlins.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
Belson, K. (2012, June 13). City clings to Rays as others clamor for a move. Retrieved from New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/14/sports/baseball/st-petersburg-clings-to-tampa-bay-rays-as-others-clamor-for-a-move.html?_r=0
Bennett, J. T. (2012). They play, you pay: Why taxpayers build ballparks, stadiums, and arenas for billionaire owners and millionaire players. New York, NY: Springer.
Berthiaume, S. (2011, June 23). Rays need to get out of Tampa Bay. Retrieved from ESPN: http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/12730/rays-need-to-get-out-of-tampa-bay
Brown, M. (2011, October 11). MLB ballpark location and the population around it can greatly influence attendance. Retrieved from Biz of Baseball: http://bizofbaseball.com/sgtest/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=5459:mlb-ballpark-location-and-the-population-around-it-can-greatly-influence-attendance&catid=26:editorials&Itemid=39
Buckman, S., & Mack, E. A. (2012). The impact of urban form on downtown stadium redevelopment projects: a comparative analysis of Phoenix and Denver. Journal of Urbanism, 1-22.
Cagan, J., & deMause, N. (2008). Field of schemes: How the great stadium swindle turns public money into private profit. Lincoln, NE: Bison Books.
Calcaterra, C. (2013, November 8). The mayor of Tampa says a downtown stadium for the Rays is 'within reach'. Retrieved from Hardball Talk: http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/11/08/the-mayor-of-tampa-says-a-downtown-stadium-for-the-rays-is-within-reach/
Chapin, T. (2002). Identifying the real costs and benefits of sports facilities. Retrieved from Arroyo Seco Foundation: http://www.arroyoseco.org/671_chapin-web.pdf
Chapin, T. (2002). Identifying the real costs and benefits of sports franchises. Retrieved from Arroyo Seco Foundation: http://www.arroyoseco.org/671_chapin-web.pdf
Clark, E. (2014). One development project, two economic tales: The St. Lous Cardinals' Busch Stadium and Ballpark Village. Missouri Policy Journal, 21-34.
Coates, D. (2007). Stadiums and arenas: Economic development or economic redistribution? Contemporary Economic Policy, 565-577.
Coates, D. (2007). Stadiums and arenas: Economic development or economic redistribution? Contemporary Economic Policy, 565-577.
Coates, D., & Humphreys, B. R. (2008). Do economists reach a conclusion on sub-sidies for sports franchises, stadiums, and mega-events? Econ Journal Watch, 294-315.
Coates, D., & Humphreys, B. R. (2008). Do economists reach a conclussion on subsides for sports franchises, stadiums, and mega-events? Econ Journal Watch, 294-315.
Conventions, Sports and Leisure. (2009, February 23). Economic and jobs impact of the Metrodome Next multipurpose facility. Retrieved from Minnesota Vikings.com: http://prod.static.vikings.clubs.nfl.com/assets/docs/csl-full-021511.pdf
Conventions, Sports, and Leisure. (2009, February 23). Economic and jobs impact of Metrodome Next multipurpose facility. Retrieved from Minnesota Vikings: http://www.vikings.com/assets/docs/csl-full-021511.pdf
Cushman & Wakefield. (2014, March). Impact analysis: The Atlanta Braves' new stadium project. Retrieved from Cushman & Wakefield: http://www.cushmanwakefield.com/~/media/reports/unitedstates/Braves%20Development%20Overview%203-14.pdf
Cushman & Wakefield. (2014, March). Impact analysis: The Atlanta Braves' new stadium project. Retrieved from Cushman & Wakefield: http://www.cushmanwakefield.com/~/media/reports/unitedstates/Braves%20Development%20Overview%203-14.pdf
Danielson, R., & Nohlgren, S. (2014, February 8). Rays stadium fans captivated by Lightning owner Jeff Vinik's land. Retrieved from Tampa Bay Times: http://www.tampabay.com/news/localgovernment/stadium-on-lightning-owner-jeff-viniks-land-8212-unlikely-says-buckhorn/2164758
Delaney, K. J. (2003). Public dollars, private stadiums: The battle over building sports stadiums. Piscataway, NJ: Rutgers University Press.
Delaney, K. J., & Eckstein, R. (2003). Public dollars, private stadiums: The battle over building sports stadiums. Piscataway, NJ: Rutgers University Press.
deMause, N. (2012, August 12). How realistic is it to find $600 million for a Rays stadium? Retrieved from Field of Schemes: http://www.fieldofschemes.com/2013/08/12/5706/how-realistic-is-it-to-find-600-million-for-a-rays-stadium/
deMause, N. (2013, August 7). Tampa readies Rays stadium task force, now just needs any idea whatsoever for how to pay for stadium. Retrieved from Field of Schemes: http://www.fieldofschemes.com/2013/08/07/5681/tampa-readies-rays-stadium-task-force-now-just-needs-any-idea-whatsoever-for-how-to-pay-for-stadium/
Dubin, J. (2015, February 6). Obama's budget proposal eliminates tax benefits for stadium building. Retrieved from CBS Sports: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25059674/obamas-budget-proposal-eliminates-tax-benefits-for-stadium-building
39
Elfrink, T. (2011, May 5). Six lies about the Marlins stadium. Retrieved from Miami New Times: http://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/six-lies-about-the-marlins-stadium-6380692
ESPN Wire Services. (2014, August 1). Tigers land David Price in 3-way deal. Retrieved from ESPN: http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/11292158/david-price-traded-detroit-tigers-deal-tampa-bay-rays
Fainaru, S. (2004, June 28). Expos for sale: Team becomes pawn of Selig. Retrieved from Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A10599-2004Jun27.html
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. (2015). Consumer Price Index (estimate) 1800-. Retrieved from Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis: https://www.minneapolisfed.org/community/teaching-aids/cpi-calculator-information/consumer-price-index-1800
Gaines, C. (2014, September 10). Stuart Sternberg vows to cut payroll In 2015. Retrieved from Rays Index: http://www.raysindex.com/2014/09/stuart-sternberg-rays-payroll-in-2015.html
Gordon, J. (2004, May 14). In San Francisco, the Giants went private for their stadium. Retrieved from Minnesota Public Radio: http://news.minnesota.publicradio.org/features/2004/05/14_gordonj_sanfranpark/
Gurbal Kritzer, A. (2014, December 9). Buckhorn: Downtown Tampa is best site for Rays stadium, but mass transit a necessity wherever it lands. Retrieved from Tampa Bay Business Journal: http://www.bizjournals.com/tampabay/news/2014/12/09/buckhorn-downtown-tampa-is-best-fit-for-rays.html
Gurbal Kritzer, A. (2014, December 9). Buckhorn: Downtown Tampa is best site for Rays stadium, but mass transit a necessity wherever it lands. Retrieved from Tampa Bay Business Journal: http://www.bizjournals.com/tampabay/news/2014/12/09/buckhorn-downtown-tampa-is-best-fit-for-rays.html
Gurbal Kritzer, A. (2015, March 20). Dawn of a new city in downtown Tampa. Retrieved from Tampa Bay Business Journal: http://www.bizjournals.com/tampabay/print-edition/2015/03/20/dawn-of-a-new-city-in-downtown-tampa.html
Hamilton, B., & Kahn, P. (n.d.). Baltimore's Camden Yards ballparks. Retrieved from John Hopkins Department of Economics: http://www.econ2.jhu.edu/people/hamilton/camden.pdf
Hanks, D. (2013, January 24). How a $91 million loan on the Marlins ballpark will cost Miami-Dade $1.2 billion. Retrieved from Miami Herald: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/economic-time-machine/article1946635.html
Hare, E. (2014, May 8). Stadium frenzy ignores economics. Retrieved from MintPress News: http://www.mintpressnews.com/stadium-frenzy-ignores-economics/190351/
Hare, E. (2014, May 8). Stadium frenzy ignores economics. Retrieved from MintPress News: http://www.mintpressnews.com/stadium-frenzy-ignores-economics/190351/
40
Henderson, J. (2013, August 8). Henderson: Buckhorn legacy could include Rays stadium. Retrieved from Tampa Tribune: http://tbo.com/list/columns-jhenderson/henderson-buckhorn-legacy-could-include-rays-stadium-20130808/
Henderson, J. (2013, August 8). Henderson: Buckhorn legacy could include Rays stadium. Retrieved from Tampa Tribune: http://tbo.com/list/columns-jhenderson/henderson-buckhorn-legacy-could-include-rays-stadium-20130808/
Hillsborough County City-County Planning Commission. (n.d.). Frequently asked questions about the comprehensive plan. Retrieved from Hillsborough County City-County Planning Commission: http://www.planhillsborough.org/frequently-asked-questions-about-the-comprehensive-plan/
Hobson, W. (2014, October 1). Rays stadium plan is the goal for Hillsborough working group. Retrieved from Tampa Bay Times: http://www.tampabay.com/news/localgovernment/hillsborough-leaders-to-form-small-working-group-for-rays-stadium-issue/2200218
InVision Tampa. (2012). The Tampa Center City Plan. Retrieved from InVision Tampa: http://www.invisiontampa.com/files/center_city_plan_2012-11-26.pdf
Jacobson, L. (2015, February 1). Team player: These 10 tips can help boost the success rate of sports stadiums built with taxpayer money. Retrieved from National Conference of State Legislatures: http://www.ncsl.org/research/fiscal-policy/team-player.aspx
Jasina, J., & Rotthoff, K. (2008, November). The impact of a professional sports franchise on county employment and wages. Retrieved from Seton Hall University: http://pirate.shu.edu/~rotthoku/papers/NFL_Employment.pdf
Keri, J. (2013, January 28). The Rays' threats are more of the same. Retrieved from Grantland: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-rays-threats-are-more-of-the-same/
Lortz, M. (2014, December 11). Estimating Rays attendance if they move to Tampa. Retrieved from Tampa Bay Baseball Market: http://tampabaybaseballmarket.com/estimating-rays-attendance-if-they-move-to-tampa/
Lortz, M. (2015, April 2). Exploring the Rays popularity through polling: 2015. Retrieved from Tampa Bay Baseball Market: http://tampabaybaseballmarket.com/exploring-the-rays-popularity-through-polling-2015/
Lortz, M. (2015, February 3). The importance of the 30-minute population radius on MLB attendance. Retrieved from FanGraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/community/the-importance-of-the-30-minute-population-radius-on-mlb-attendance/
Mack, E. A., & Buckman, S. (2012). The impact of urban form on downtown stadium redevelopment projects: a comparative analysis of Phoenix and Denver. Journal of Urbanism, 1-22. Retrieved from http://www.tandfonline.com.proxy.lib.fsu.edu/doi/pdf/10.1080/17549175.2012.659071
Macramalla, E. (2014, December 18). Shocking stadium defeat for Tampa Bay Rays casts more doubt on already uncertain future. Retrieved from Forbes: http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericmacramalla/2014/12/18/shocking-stadium-defeat-for-tampa-bay-rays-casts-more-doubt-on-already-uncertain-future/
41
Macramalla, E. (2015, May 29). Why the Montreal mayor meeting With MLB commish Manfred isn't enough. Retrieved from Forbes: http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericmacramalla/2015/05/29/montreal-mayor-meets-with-commissioner-manfred-over-return-of-the-expos-2/
Madden, B. (2014, October 24). Madden's World Series confidential: Bud Selig nightmare is Cubs dream as manager Joe Maddon leaves Rays. Retrieved from New York Daily Times: http://m.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/madden-rays-rocked-frustrated-joe-maddon-opts-walk-article-1.1986150#bmb=1
Malinowski, I. (2014, December 10). How would moving the Rays impact Tampa Bay's economy? Retrieved from D Rays Bay: http://www.draysbay.com/2014/12/10/7365261/tampa-bay-rays-economic-impact-stadium
Martin, T. W., Albergotti, R., & Futterman, M. (2011, December 5). SEC examines Marlins stadium deal. Retrieved from Wall Street Journal: http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052970204826704577077230342369436
Munzenrieder, K. (2012, December 3). County commissioner tells Jeffrey Loria to 'get the hell out of here'. Retrieved from Miami New Times: http://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/county-commissioner-tells-jeffrey-loria-to-get-the-hell-out-of-here-6555816
Nelson, T. (2012, June 12). Stadium could benefit those hardest hit by poverty, unemployment. Retrieved from MPR News: http://www.mprnews.org/story/2012/06/12/labor/vikings-stadium-jobs
Nicholson-Smith, B. (2015, January 26). Manfred: Return to Montreal ‘possible’ for MLB. Retrieved from SportsNet: http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/manfred-return-to-montreal-possible-for-mlb/
Nohlgren, S. (2012, September 1). Financing a new stadium for the Tampa Bay Rays may need to be creative. Retrieved from Tampa Bay Times: http://www.tampabay.com/news/financing-a-new-stadium-for-the-tampa-bay-rays-may-need-to-be-creative/1249351
Nohlgren, S. (2012, November 19). Task force says new Rays stadium is affordable — with taxes. Retrieved from Tampa Bay Times: http://www.tampabay.com/news/localgovernment/task-force-says-new-rays-stadium-is-affordable-8212-with-taxes/1262307
Nohlgren, S. (2015, April 1). New roof technology could benefit a new Rays stadium. Retrieved from Tampa Bay Times: http://www.tampabay.com/features/humaninterest/new-roof-technology-could-benefit-a-new-rays-stadium/2223706
Nohlgren, S., Danielson, R., & Thalji, J. (2014, December 6). Options for a Rays stadium in Tampa. Retrieved from Tampa Bay Times: http://www.tampabay.com/news/localgovernment/tampa-officials-search-for-possible-new-rays-stadium-sites/2209260
Nolhgren, S. (2015, March 30). Latest Tampa Bay Rays stadium search proposal appears dead. Retrieved from Tampa Bay Times: http://www.tampabay.com/news/localgovernment/latest-tampa-bay-rays-stadium-proposal-appears-dead/2223440
Petchesky, B. (2013, May 8). The Marlins are so bad, businesses don't want to open nearby. Retrieved from Deadspin: http://deadspin.com/the-marlins-are-so-bad-businesses-dont-want-to-open-n-
42
496019428#
Peter, J. (2015, January 25). Hosting a Super Bowl a huge economic plum, and costly. Retrieved from USA Today: http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2015/01/25/super-bowl-host-cities-economic-impact/22324109/
Pransky, N. (2013, August 25). New poll: Public subsidies for stadium in Tampa unpopular. Retrieved from Shadow of the Stadium: http://shadowofthestadium.blogspot.com/2013/08/new-poll-public-subsidies-for-stadium.html
Pransky, N. (2014, December 11). What could a new Rays stadium really cost taxpayers? Retrieved from Shadow of the Stadium: http://shadowofthestadium.blogspot.com/2014/12/what-could-new-rays-stadium-really-cost.html
Pransky, N. (2014, April 1). What Tampa Bay can learn from Minnesota's stadium saga. Retrieved from WTSP: http://www.wtsp.com/story/news/investigations/2015/04/01/what-rays-fans-can-learn-from-minnesota-stadium-saga/70779484/
Pransky, N. (2015, January 26). Florida's 'new' stadium process is same process, just with more tax dollars. Retrieved from Shadow of the Stadium: http://shadowofthestadium.blogspot.com/2015/01/floridas-new-stadium-process-is-same.html
Russell, D. (2015, March 30). Rays denied consideration of re-negotiated lease by St. Petersburg City Council. Retrieved from D Rays Bay: http://www.draysbay.com/2015/3/30/8315253/tampa-bay-rays-st-petersburg-city-council-denies-stadium-request-again
Sapotichne, J. (2012). Rhetorical strategy in stadium development politics. City, Culture, and Society, 169-180.
Sapotichne, J. (2012). Rhetorical strategy in stadium development politics. City, Culture and Society, 169-180. Retrieved from City, Culture and Society.
Sasso, M. (2012, August 8). Immigration program might help fund Rays stadium. Retrieved from Tampa Tribune: http://tbo.com/news/immigration-program-might-help-fund-rays-stadium-389724
Seher, J. (2012, May 9). Top 10 worst stadiums in the U.S.: #3 Tropicana Field, Tampa Bay. Retrieved from Time: http://keepingscore.blogs.time.com/2012/05/10/top-10-worst-stadiums-in-the-u-s/slide/tropicana-field-tampa-bay/
Siegfriend, J., & Zimbalist, A. (2000). The economics of sports facilities and their communitites. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 95-114.
Spotrac. (n.d.). MLB team payroll tracker. Retrieved from Spotrac: http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/
Steinberg, D. (2015, February 5). The Redskins are surveying fans about a new stadium. Retrieved from Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/dc-sports-bog/wp/2015/02/05/the-redskins-are-surveying-fans-about-a-new-stadium/
Temple-West, P. (2015, February 4). Obama throws curveball at team owners. Retrieved from Politico: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/02/stadium-tax-benefits-obama-114893.html
43
Temple-West, P. (2015, February 3). Obama throws curveball at team owners. Retrieved from Politico: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/02/stadium-tax-benefits-obama-114893.html
Thalji, J. (2014, December 12). Could Tampa Bay Rays stadium be funded by sixth cent of tourist tax? Retrieved from Tampa Bay Times: http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/tourism/could-tampa-bay-rays-stadium-be-funded-by-sixth-cent-of-tourist-tax/2210011
Thalji, J. (2014, December 12). Could Tampa Bay Rays stadium be funded by sixth cent of tourist tax? Retrieved from Tampa Bay Times: http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/tourism/could-tampa-bay-rays-stadium-be-funded-by-sixth-cent-of-tourist-tax/2210011
Thalji, J. (2014, December 17). Jeff Vinik's $1 billion plan for downtown Tampa finally revealed. Retrieved from Tampa Bay Times: http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/jeff-viniks-1-billion-plan-for-downtown-tampa-finally-revealed/2210519
The Baseball Stadium Financing Caucus. (2012). Bay area baseball stadium finance summary. Tampa: Greater Tampa Chamber of Commerce and St. Petersburg Area Chamber of Commerce.
The Baseball Stadium Financing Caucus. (2012, November). Bay Area baseball stadium finance summary. Retrieved from The Baseball Stadium Financing Caucus: http://archive.wtsp.com/assetpool/documents/121119025849_Bay%20Area%20Ballpark%20Financing%20Summary%20Short%20Form%20-%20Final.pdf
U-T San Diego Editorial Board. (2014, January 11). If stadium is done right, Chargers, city, taxpayers can benefit. Retrieved from San Diego Union Tribune: http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2014/jan/11/stadium-done-right-could-benefit-all/
Wilhelm, S. (2008, April 30). Public funding of sports stadium. Retrieved from Center for Public Policy & Administration at the University of Utah: http://cppa.utah.edu/_documents/publications/finance-tax/sports-stadiums.pdf
Wilhelm, S. (2008, April 8). Public funding of sports stadiums. Retrieved from Center for Public Policy and Administration at the University of Utah: Public Funding of Sports Stadiums
Zimmerman, D. (1996, May 29). Tax-exempt bonds and the economics of professional sports stadiums. Retrieved from Heartland Magazine: https://www.heartland.org/sites/all/modules/custom/heartland_migration/files/pdfs/3909.pdf
44