Columbus, OH / May 9, 2012@bruce_katz #globalcities
11.2 millionjobs needed
More Jobs
More Jobs
More Jobs & Better Jobs
A vision for the next American economy
1 2 3
1
2 3
The next economy will be largely metropolitan
1 2 31
2
3
1 2 31 2
3 Metropolitan areas are driving innovation
METROINNOVATION
A vision for the next American economy
1 2 3
1
2 3
2009
Global GDP
19.9%US
21.0%BIC Countries
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2010
2015
Global GDP
26.5%BIC Countries
17.9%US
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2010
Global Metro Population
2009
50%
Global Metro Population
2030
60%
Source: UN Department of Economic-Social Affairs, World Urbanization Prospects, 2009
Economic Performance2010-2011
Highest Performing MetrosLowest Performing Metros
Source: Brookings, Global MetroMonitor, January 2012
Exports Share of GDP2010
13%
United States
29% 22%
15%
30%
Japan
China Canada India
European Union
15%
Source: Brookings analysis of WTO and EIU data, 2011
Transport Networks are Clogged and Congested
Can we get back into the export game?
11%US export growth2009-2010
46%exports share of GDP growth2009-2011
billionUS manufactured exports 2010
$944
Japan
$680$944
United States GermanyFrance
$409
China
$1477
$1091
Top Manufacturing Exporting Countries2010, Billions
Source: World Trade Organization, 2011
What the US makesThe world takes
$358
ServiceImports
ServiceExports
$518
US Service TradeBillions, 2010
$160 billiontrade surplus
Source: World Trade Organization, 2011 (Data reflect Commercial Services)
Service ExportsShare of World Total, 2010
14.0%United States
6.3%Germany
Source: Brookings, Export Nation 2012
“We set a new goal: We will double our exports over the next five years, an increase that will support two million jobs in America.”
President ObamaJanuary 27, 2010
Photo: Pete Souza, The White House
Can the U.S. play in thelow carbon revolution?
Sources: Brookings-Battelle Clean Economy Database (2011)
2.7 millionclean economy jobs
1.4 millionbiosciences jobs
4.8 millionIT jobs
2.4 millionfossil fuel jobs
2.7 millionclean economy jobs
Sources: Brookings-Battelle Clean Economy Database (2011), Brookings Analysis of Battelle, BLS, Moody’s Analytics data
$53.9 billionclean economy exports
Source: Brookings-Battelle Clean Economy Database (2011) and Moody’s Economy.com
$53.9 billionclean economy exports
NationalEconomy
$10,392
Export IntensityYearly Export Earnings per Job
$20,124
Clean Economy
Source: Brookings-Battelle Clean Economy Database (2011) and Moody’s Economy.com
Source: EOP “A Framework for Revitalizing American Manufacturing” (2009)Brookings “Accelerating Advanced Manufacturing with New Research Centers” (2011)
90%manufacturing share of patents
68%manufacturing share of R&D
35%manufacturingshare of engineers
Can the U.S. be anInnovation Nation?
What do soaring Chinese wages mean
for global manufacturing?
May 10, 2012
China is the world’s largest manufacturing
power. Its output of televisions,
smartphones, steel pipes and other things
you can drop on your foot surpassed
America’s in 2010. China now accounts for a
fifth of global manufacturing. Its factories
have made so much, so cheaply that they
have curbed inflation in many of its trading
partners. But the era of cheap China may be
drawing to a close.
The End of Cheap
China
US Names China On Intellectual-Property Watchlist
April 30, 2012
China's insufficient protection of intellectual property rights remains a top priority for U.S. trade policy, given the "troubling" direction of recent government measures aimed at supporting domestic innovation, the U.S. Trade Representative's office said Monday.
The coming US boom and howshale gas will fuel itApril 23, 2012
Ten years from today, the CEA and Federal Reserve chairman will again celebrate a decade of unexpected strong growth. This time the credit will go to countrywide gains from the very low energy prices found only in the US. Low-cost energy will have spawned an export surge in all sorts of goods, from chemicals to tyres.
Quake Disrupts Key Supply ChainsApril 30, 2012
The earthquake that struck northeast Japan Friday forced shutdowns across a broad spectrum of the country's industries, but the bigger impact for companies could come in the weeks ahead as the disruptions make their way through the global supply chain.The 8.9-magnitude earth quake, one of the largest on record, has crippled activity for now in a country that is a
Source: Brookings analysis of Moody’s Economy.com data
What do soaring Chinese wages mean
for global manufacturing?
May 10, 2012
China is the world’s largest manufacturing
power. Its output of televisions,
smartphones, steel pipes and other things
you can drop on your foot surpassed
America’s in 2010. China now accounts for a
fifth of global manufacturing. Its factories
have made so much, so cheaply that they
have curbed inflation in many of its trading
partners. But the era of cheap China may be
drawing to a close.
The End of Cheap
ChinaUS Names China On Intellectual-Property Watchlist
April 30, 2012
China's insufficient protection of intellectual property rights remains a top priority for U.S. trade policy, given the "troubling" direction of recent government measures aimed at supporting domestic innovation, the U.S. Trade Representative's office said Monday.
The coming US boom and howshale gas will fuel itApril 23, 2012
Ten years from today, the CEA and Federal Reserve chairman will again celebrate a decade of unexpected strong growth. This time the credit will go to countrywide gains from the very low energy prices found only in the US. Low-cost energy will have spawned an export surge in all sorts of goods, from chemicals to tyres.
Quake Disrupts Key Supply ChainsApril 30, 2012
The earthquake that struck northeast Japan Friday forced shutdowns across a broad spectrum of the country's industries, but the bigger impact for companies could come in the weeks ahead as the disruptions make their way through the global supply chain.The 8.9-magnitude earth quake, one of the largest on record, has crippled activity for now in a country that is a
38%manufacturing share of economic growth2009 Q3 - 2011 Q4
Source: Brookings analysis of Moody’s Economy.com data
11%wage premiumin exporting firms
Source: Istrate, Rothwell & Katz, Export Nation (2010)
Greater likelihood of health and retirement benefits in export-intense industries
The U.S. must get smart...
fast
Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey
Hispanics
19%
African Americans
Non-Hispanic Whites
Asians
25%39%
56%
Educational AttainmentAssociate’s Degree or Higher
United States
36%
Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey
Hispanics
19%
African Americans
25%
Educational AttainmentAssociate’s Degree or Higher
The next economy will be largely metropolitan
1 2 31
2
3
Source: Brookings analysis of US Bureau of Economic Analysis data
OhioAkron, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus
Dayton, Toledo, Youngstown
Population GDP
71% 78%
OhioAkron, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus
Dayton, Toledo, Youngstown
Population GDP
Canton, Springfield, Mansfield, Lima, Sandusky, Wheeling, Weirton, Huntington, Parkersburg
81% 86%
Service Exports
75%63%
Manufacturing Exports
Population
66%
Top 100 Metro ExportsShare of U.S. Totals
Source: Brookings, ExportNation 2012
Top 100 Metro Exports
Chemical Products
68% 76%
Business/Professional
Services
Computer/Electronic Products
78%
Population
66%
Share of U.S. Totals
Source: Brookings, ExportNation 2012
Top 100 Metro Trade Logistics
U.S. Air Cargo Weight
82% 88%
Foreign Waterborne
Cargo Weight
Airline Boardings
92%
Population
66%
Share of U.S. Totals
Source: Brookings analysis of US Census Bureau, FAA, and PIERS data (2009)
Aerial imagery: © DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, Sanborn, USGS, USDA FSA
Aerial imagery: © DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, Sanborn, USGS, USDA FSA
$7.9 B
Top 100Metros
ColumbusMetro
Export Intensity
9.8% 8.9%
Export VolumeGoods & Services Exports
61.1%goods share of exports
Columbus, OH Metro Export Dashboard
55,500Export Jobs
38.9%services share
of exports
Top Services SectorsTop Services SectorsBusiness & Professional Services 11.2%
Travel & Tourism 8.8%
Financial Services 7.9%
Top Manufacturing SectorsTop Manufacturing SectorsTransportation Equipment 18.9%
Chemicals 14.2%
Machinery 11.3%
Source: Brookings, ExportNation 2012
BROOKINGS | April 2012
1
Locating American
Manufacturing: Trends in the Geography of Production
Susan Helper, Timothy Krueger, and Howard Wial1
“ Different regions
of the country,
different met-
ropolitan areas,
and even dif-
ferent counties
within the same
metropolitan
area differ greatly
in their manufac-
turing industries,
technology lev-
els, wages, and
plant sizes.”
FindingsAnalysis of data on employment, earnings, and the number of business establishments engaged
in U.S. manufacturing finds that:
Q��Metropolitan areas, especially large metropolitan areas and central metropolitan coun-
ties, contain the great majority of manufacturing jobs and nearly all very high-technology
manufacturing jobs, reflecting the advantages they provide to manufacturing in general
and very high-technology manufacturing in particular. In 2010, metropolitan areas con-
tained 79.5 percent of all manufacturing jobs, 78.6 percent of moderately high-technology
manufacturing jobs, and 95 percent of very high-technology manufacturing jobs.
Q��U.S. metropolitan areas have become increasingly specialized in manufacturing since
1980 but they vary widely in their manufacturing activities and focuses. Nearly all met-
ropolitan areas specialize strongly in at least one manufacturing industry even if they do not
specialize strongly in manufacturing as a whole.
Q��Manufacturing in most metropolitan areas follows one or more of six broad patterns of
industry clustering. These patterns are anchored in high specializations in computers and
electronics, transportation equipment, low-wage manufacturing industries, chemicals, machin-
ery, and food production.
Q��Manufacturing wages vary widely among metropolitan areas. In the nation’s 100 largest
metropolitan areas, the average manufacturing earnings are highest in San Jose, at about
$145,000 per year, and lowest in McAllen, at about $35,000.
Q��Metropolitan manufacturing plants are relatively small but vary widely in size among
metropolitan areas. In 2009, the average metropolitan manufacturing plant had 57.4 employ-
ees, a figure that ranged from a high of 203.6 in Kingsport, TN, to a low of 9.1 in Ocean City, NJ.
Q��The long-term shift of manufacturing jobs toward the South came to a halt in the first
decade of the 21st century, while the Midwest had the fastest manufacturing job gains
over the last two years. Between 2000 and 2010 both the Midwest and the South lost about
34 percent of their manufacturing jobs, while between the first quarter of 2010 and the fourth
quarter of 2011 the Midwest saw a manufacturing job gain of 5.2 percent while the South saw a
gain of 2.2 percent.
Q� The early 21st century saw a resumption or continuation of long-term shifts of manu-
facturing jobs away from metropolitan areas and central metropolitan counties. Between
2000 and 2010 the central counties of metropolitan areas with three or more counties lost
33.9 percent of their manufacturing jobs while the outlying counties of those metropolitan
areas lost 29.3 percent. Although metropolitan areas lost manufacturing jobs at a slower rate
than nonmetropolitan counties between 2000 and 2010, nonmetropolitan counties gained
manufacturing jobs more rapidly than metropolitan areas during the past two years.
In view of these findings, public policy should enhance the innovation and productivity advan-
tages that metropolitan areas offer manufacturers, while eliminating artificial incentives for
manufacturers to seek low-wage locations. Because there is so much regional variation in
manufacturing, federal policy should provide a platform for state, local, and metropolitan efforts,
which can formulate policies to respond to regional needs.
www.brookings.edu/USmfg
CincinnatiAerospace
DaytonMachinery
ToledoMotor Vehicles & Parts
ClevelandFabricated Metal Products
AkronPlastics & Rubber
YoungstownPrimary Metals
ColumbusMotor Vehicles & Parts
Ohio Metro Manufacturing Specialties
Source: Brookings, Locating American Manufacturing 2012
63,154
US ColumbusMetro
ManufacturingIntensity
8.5%6.9%
Manufacturing JobsTop Manufacturing Sectors
Columbus, OH Metro Export Dashboard
Motor Vehicles & Parts 18.9%Food 14.2%Fabricated Metals 11.3%Machinery 10.2%Nonmineral Mineral Products 6.8%
US ColumbusMetro
Manufacturing Growth
2010 Q1 - 2011 Q4
2.7%3.3%
Source: Brookings, Locating American Manufacturing 2012
1 2 31 2
3 Metropolitan areas are driving innovation
METROINNOVATION
Innovate Locally
Market AssessmentTarget Sectors
8% 9%12%
Economic Profile
15%
12%
13%
9%
Establish Goals & Strategies
Boost SME exportsIncrease global fluency
Double exports Support key sectors
Governments
Philanthropy
Firms
Universities
Collaborate to CompeteLos Angeles
Seattle
Minneapols-Saint Paul
Portland
Northeast Ohio
Syracuse
Metropolitan Business Planning
Target industries: aerospace, computer and electronic products, pharmaceuticals, professional services, film and television
University ofSouthern California
University of California Los Angeles
City ofLos Angeles
Grow Los Angeles metropolitan exports
Los Angeles Regional Export Council
Los Angeles
Metropolitan Business Planning
Northeast Ohio
Metropolitan Business Planning Key manufacturing growth sectors: fuel cells, electric vehicles, organic electronics
Retool manufacturing and retrain industrial workers
Case WesternReserve
The Universityof Akron
John GlennResearch Center
3XEOLVKHG�%\��WKH�&ROXPEXV�&RXQFLO�RQ�:RUOG�$IIDLUVWith Support From: Columbus2020!, MORPC, and The Columbus FoundationResearch By: Community Research Partners
A catalog of international assets in Greater Columbus6XPPDU\
www.columbusworldaffairs.org
Innovate Locally Advocate Nationally
PennsylvaniaCenter for Trade & DevelopmentState Governments
22 foreign tradeoffices
firms assisted with exports1,350
new exports from assisted firms, 2010$483 m
FloridaEnterprise Florida
12 internationaloffices
$3 b state GDP added from export assistance & business development in 2011
State Governments
OhioState Governments
to foster innovation ecosystem in Ohio 2010-2016
$700 m Third Frontier
OhioState Governments
7 regional centers providing innovation & commercialization services
to foster innovation ecosystem in Ohio 2010-2016
$700 m Third Frontier
Edison Technology Centers
JobsOhio
Attracting foreign direct investment
Empowering regional economic development
Federal Government
MAP-21Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century
Export-Import Bank
Reauthorization
Protect InnovationOpen Markets
Free Trade
AgreementFree Trade AgreementFree Trade
Agreement
Federal Government
Modernize Trade Corridors
Protect InnovationOpen Markets
Free Trade
AgreementFree Trade AgreementFree Trade
Agreement
Federal Government
US Patent & Trademark Office
US Trade RepresentativeIntellectual Property
Enforcement Coordinator
Modernize Trade Corridors
Protect InnovationOpen Markets
Free Trade
AgreementFree Trade AgreementFree Trade
Agreement
Federal Government
US Patent & Trademark Office
US Trade RepresentativeIntellectual Property
Enforcement Coordinator
Modernize Trade Corridors
Council of Economic Advisors Council on Environmental Quality National Security Council
Office of Administration Office of Management & Budget Office of Nat’l Drug Control Policy
Office of Policy Development Office of Science & Technology Policy Office of the US Trade Representative
Department of Agriculture Department of Commerce Department of Defense Department of Education Department of Energy
Department of Health & Human Services Department of Homeland Security Department of Housing & Urban
Development Department of the Interior Department of Justice
Department of Labor Department of State Department of Transportation Department of Treasury Department of Veterans Affairs
African Development Foundation
Central Intelligence Agency
Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Consumer Product Safety Commission
Corporation for National and
Community ServiceDefense Nuclear
Facilities Safety BoardEnvironmental
Protection AgencyEqual Employment
Opportunity Commission
Export-Import Bank of the United States
Farm Credit Administration
Federal Communications
CommissionFederal Deposit
Insurance CorporationFederal Election
CommissionFederal Housing Finance Board
Federal Labor Relations Authority
Federal Maritime Commission
Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service
Federal Mine Safety & Health Review Commission
Federal Reserve System
Federal Retirement Thrift Investment
BoardFederal Trade Commission
General Services Administration
Inter-American Foundation
Merit Systems Protection Board
National Aeronautics and Space
Administration
National Archives and Records
AdministrationNational Capital
Planning Commission
National Credit Union Administration
National Foundation on the Arts and
HumanitiesNational Labor
Relations BoardNational Mediation
BoardNational Railroad
Passenger Corporation (AMTRAK)
National Science Foundation
National Transportation Safety
BoardNuclear Regulatory
CommissionOccupational Safety &
Health Review Commission
Office of Government Ethics
Office of Personnel Management
Office of Special Council
Overseas Private Investment Corporation
Peace Corps Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation
Postal Rate Commission
Railroad Retirement Board
Securities and Exchange Commission
Selective Service System
Small Business Administration
Social Security Administration
Tennessee Valley Authority
Trade & Development Agency
US Agency for International Development
US Commission on Civil Rights
US International Trade Commission US Postal Service
EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
CABINET AGENCIES
INDEPENDENT ESTABLISHMENTS AND GOVERNMENT CORPORATIONS
Office of the US Trade Representative
Export-Import Bank of the United States
Overseas Private Investment Corporation
Department of Commerce
Small Business Administration
PROPOSED “BUSINESS USA” REORGANIZATION
Export-Import Bank of the United States
Department of CommerceOverseas Private
InvestmentCorporation
Office of the US Trade Representative
Small Business Administration
International Trade AdministrationUS Census
National Technical Information ServiceSelect USA
Bureau of Industry & SecurityNational Institute of Standards & Technology
Minority Business Development Agency
Export-Import Bank of the United States
Department of CommerceOverseas Private
InvestmentCorporation
Office of the US Trade Representative
Small Business Administration
International Trade AdministrationUS Census
National Technical Information ServiceSelect USA
Bureau of Industry & SecurityNational Institute of Standards & Technology
Minority Business Development Agency
INTEGRATED METROPOLITAN EXPORT PROMOTION
Local GovernmentsPhilanthropy
FirmsUniversities
State GovernmentFederal Government
Innovate Locally Network GloballyAdvocate Nationally
New York
Sao Paulo
Toronto
Lagos
Sydney
Tokyo
Shanghai
London
ParisFrankfurt
Detroit
Monterrey
Bogota
Johannesburg
Cologne
ChennaiHanoi
Chongqing
Los Angeles
Buenos Aires Durbin
Dubai
Singapore
Seoul
Tianjin
HamburgRotterdam
Xi’anDelhi
Antioch
Tyre
Samarkand
Lanzhou
Baghdad Tehran
Xi’anDelhi
Antioch
Tyre
Samarkand
Lanzhou
Baghdad Tehran
Columbus, OH / May 9, 2012@bruce_katz #globalcities