7/28/2019 GHG Report
1/60
Results of Five Climate Modelling StudiesGHG Emissions Profile
INDIAS
Climate Modelling Forum, India
Supported by
Ministry of Environment and ForestsGovernment of India
September 2009
7/28/2019 GHG Report
2/60
7/28/2019 GHG Report
3/60
Climate Modelling Forum, India
Supported by
Ministry of Environment and ForestsGovernment of India
September 2009
Results of Five Climate Modelling StudiesGHG Emissions ProfileINDIAS
7/28/2019 GHG Report
4/60
7/28/2019 GHG Report
5/60
Foreword
jkT; ea=h Lora= izHkkji;kZoj.k ,oa ouHkkjr ljdkj
MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE)
ENVIRONMENT & FORESTS
GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
1 Carbon Dioxide equivalent
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
7/28/2019 GHG Report
6/60
2 Kilogram of oil equivalent3 Purchasing Power Parity
7/28/2019 GHG Report
7/60
A. BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE
B. STUDIES PRESENTED IN THIS REPORT
Executive Summary
1 The next step will involve modelling of mitigation options and costs, as well as the economic and foodsecurity implications of climate change on India. These are under investigation and will be published insubsequent reports.
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
5
7/28/2019 GHG Report
8/60
6
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
C. KEY RESULTS
2 1 tonne of carbon is equivalent to 3.67 tonnes of CO2e
3 The terminal year is 2031-32 for the TERI-MoEF and TERI-Poznan Studies.4 McKinsey study estimates include CH
4emissions from agriculture, not taken into account in the other models
7/28/2019 GHG Report
9/60
7
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
D. NOTE ON METHODOLOGIES
O
O
7/28/2019 GHG Report
10/60
8
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
O
O
O
7/28/2019 GHG Report
11/60
9
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
Table 1: Results for Illustrative Scenarios
5National Energy Map for India: Technology Vision 2030
7/28/2019 GHG Report
12/60
10
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
Table 2: Assumptions and data sources for Illustrative Scenarios
7/28/2019 GHG Report
13/60
11
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
Table 3: Models / Methodology Descriptions
7/28/2019 GHG Report
14/60
12
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
7/28/2019 GHG Report
15/60
13
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
1. BACKGROUND
Indias GHG Emissions till 2030:A Compilation of Results of Five Recent Studies
1 Also under development, in respect of climate change impacts, are two linked models on water resources andagricultural crops. These two models are not further discussed in this report
7/28/2019 GHG Report
16/60
14
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
2. PART I: TECHNICAL DESCRIPTIONS OF MODELS/METHODOLOGY:
2.1 Overview: The Models and Methodologies:
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
7/28/2019 GHG Report
17/60
15
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
Figure 1: Structure of Partially Linked Energy-Economy Models
7/28/2019 GHG Report
18/60
16
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
2.2 Technical Description of the India Computable General EquilibriumModel
2.2.1 Model Structure
7/28/2019 GHG Report
19/60
17
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
Figure 2: Flow of Conventional Commodities, Factors, Payments and Transfer in the Economy
7/28/2019 GHG Report
20/60
18
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
2.2.2 Sectoral Disaggregation
Table 1: Sectoral Disaggregation in the CGE model
2.2.3 The Production Structure
7/28/2019 GHG Report
21/60
19
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
Figure 3 : The Production Nesting Diagram
2.2.4 Description of Model - Model Equations, Variables and Parameters
7/28/2019 GHG Report
22/60
20
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
7/28/2019 GHG Report
23/60
21
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
0, =f
fib and0
'
'' ==f
i
ff
f
i
ff bb
7/28/2019 GHG Report
24/60
22
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
7/28/2019 GHG Report
25/60
23
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
m
jjjj EXRpwmtmPM += .).1( j SIMP
ex
jjjj tePEPWE += )1( j SEXP
3. Ratio of Import to Domestic Demandmj
j
jm
j
m
jj PM
PDDRMD
+
=1
1
1 j SIMP DOMS
4. Demand for Imports
jjj QDRMDQM .= j SIMP DOMS
5. Armington Aggregation Equation
( ){ } mjmjmjj
m
jj
m
j
m
jj QDQMQQ
1
.1
+= j SIMP DOMS
6. Price of composite for imports and domestically used commodity
jjjjjj PDDQDPMQMQQPQ += j AS
7. Armington Aggregation equation for the case of no imports
j
m
jj QDQQ = j SNIMP
8. CET equation for exports and domestic
( ){ }exj
exjexj
jexjj
exj
exjj QDQEQX
1
1 += j SEXP DOMS
9. Ratio of exports and domestic demands1
1
1
=
exj
ex
j
ex
j
j
j
j
j
PDD
PE
QD
QE
j SEXP DOMS
10. Price of composite of exports and domestic commodity
jjjjjj QDPDDQEPEQXPX += j AS
11. CET equation for no exports
j
ex
jj
QDQX = j SNEXP
12. Commodity Market Balance
ii QAQX = i AS
13. Average cost pricing rule for industries
( ) iii
i TCtaPX
QA =
+1 i AS
14. Commodity Market Balance
jj QAQX = j AS
15. Average cost pricing rule for industries
( ) iii
i TCtaPX
QA =
+1 i AS
7/28/2019 GHG Report
26/60
24
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
16. Production costs for industries.
ij
j
ijif
f
ifi CCOPQINTPFQFTC 2.,,, ++= i ASf PFAC
17. Quantities of factor inputs (Translog Production Function)
i ASf FMAT
18. Commodity Inputs Aggregation Equation for Industries (cobb-Douglas Production function)
i AS
i AS
19. Ratio of materials and energy inputs in aggregate commodity inputs
i AS
20. Price of aggregate commodity inputs faced by industries
i AS
21. Effective cost of aggregate of Armington energies
i AS
e SEN
22. Quantity of aggregate of Armington energy inputs
i AS
e SEN
23. Quantity of each type of Armington energy employed in each industry
i AS
e SEN
24. Aggregation of Non-energy commodities as Industry Intermediate inputs
i AS
mat SMAT
25. Price of aggregate material input faced by industry
i AS
mat SMAT
7/28/2019 GHG Report
27/60
25
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
26. Ratio of domestic commodity to Armington composite.
i AS
27. Quantities of Domestic and Imported Energy of each type used as input by each industry.
j AS
e SEN
28. GHG emission by each industry in carbon equivalent
i AS
e SEN
g GHGS
29. Quantity of CO2
offsets generated in each industry
i AS
30. Net taxable or saleable CO2
emission by each industry
i AS
31. Penalty due to positive net CO2
emission by each industry.
i AS
32. Effective price of energy input for industry
i AS
e SEN
g GHGS
33. Effective price of capital for industry I in GE model
i AS
34. Effective price of labour for industry I in GE model
i AS
35. Effective land rental rate in each industry in GE model
i AS
36. Gross domestic product at factor costs
j AS
37. Households income by households class
i AS
7/28/2019 GHG Report
28/60
26
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
38. Disposable Household income by households class h
i AS
h HHSC
39. Net household income
h HHSC
40. Net households expenditure
h HHSC
41. Total government income
i AS
j AS
h HHSC42. Net public consumption expenditure
43. Consumer LES demand equations by households class
j AS
h HHSC
44. Consumer demand equation
j AS
h HHSC
45. Public demand equation
j AS
46. Value of gross investment in the economy
h HHSC
47. Investment demand by each Industry
i AS
48. Quantity of fixed investment demand for each Armington commodity in the economy.
i AS
j AS
7/28/2019 GHG Report
29/60
27
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
49. Quantity of change in stock demand for each Armington commodity
j AS
50. Total demand of Armington Composites in the Domestic market.
j AS
i AS
51. Export Demands for domestic Commodities
j SEXP
52. Labour market balance holds for GE model
i AS
53. Capital market balance holds for GE model
i AS
54. CO2e emission due to final consumer demands for energy commodities.
j AS
e SENg GHGS
55. CO2e emission due to final public demands for energy
j AS
e SEN
g GHGS
56. Net national CO2e emission.
i AS
57. Domestic CO2e balance in the economy
i AS
58. External CO2e balance of the National Economy
59. Price normalisation equation
j AS
7/28/2019 GHG Report
30/60
28
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
2.2.5 Data and Implementation of the Model
7/28/2019 GHG Report
31/60
29
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
2.2.6 Time Path of Exogenous Variables
2.2.7 Solution, Validation and Assumptions of the Model
7/28/2019 GHG Report
32/60
30
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
Assumptions on Technological change
Assumptions on Greenhouse Gas Emissions
7/28/2019 GHG Report
33/60
31
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
2.3 Technical Description of the TERI-MoEF (MARKAL) Model
Figure 4: MARKAL Building Blocks
2.3.1 MARKAL Objective Function
Annualized investment costs of energy technologies
O
7/28/2019 GHG Report
34/60
32
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
O
O
O
O
Mathematically:
Constraints
7/28/2019 GHG Report
35/60
33
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
Mathematically:
2.3.2 MARKALs Inputs and Outputs
7/28/2019 GHG Report
36/60
34
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
MARKAL Outputs
2.3.3 Integration of the MARKAL Model within the overall Modeling Framework
7/28/2019 GHG Report
37/60
35
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
2.3.4 Data Sources used in the MARKAL Model
OO
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
7/28/2019 GHG Report
38/60
36
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
O
2.4 Technical Description of the IRADE-Activity Analysis Model
2.4.1 Methodology
2.4.2 Description of model equations
+=i
ihthtihihoiht CECC )(
7/28/2019 GHG Report
39/60
37
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
ititititititit MYEIOIGC +++++
jtjtjtjtj ICORKKXX /)()( 1,,1,,
tjtjtj IKJDELK ,1,, *)( +=
7/28/2019 GHG Report
40/60
38
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
)()(*00
FTFTVAVASZZttoi it
++
tt VAtbaFT *)*( =
t
i
ti
i
iti FTEMTTM += ,, )*(
1,, *)1( + tiiti MMGRUM
1,, *)1( + tiiti MMGRLM
1,, *)1( + tiiti EEXGRUE
7/28/2019 GHG Report
41/60
39
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
Figure 5: Activity Analysis Model Graphical Representation of Structure
7/28/2019 GHG Report
42/60
40
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
2.4.3 Major features of the model
Sectors and Activities
O
O
O
O
Direct and Indirect Emissions:
Consumption and Savings:
7/28/2019 GHG Report
43/60
41
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
Trade
Model Inputs:
O
O
O
O
7/28/2019 GHG Report
44/60
42
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
Table 2: Resource and capacity constraints
Table 3: Import constraints on Energy inputs
Table 4: Assumptions of Exogenous parameters:
7/28/2019 GHG Report
45/60
43
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
Model Outputs
O
O
O
O
2.4.4 Data and Approach
2.5 The TERI-Poznan Study:
7/28/2019 GHG Report
46/60
44
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
2.6 The McKinsey Study:
O
O
O
7/28/2019 GHG Report
47/60
45
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
3. PART II: PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF STUDIES FOR ILLUSTRATIVESCENARIOS:
3.1 Preliminary Results of NCAER-CGE Simulations
O
O
O
O
O
Simulation Results:
Figure 6: GDP Growth Rate in the Illustrative Scenario
Figure 7: Growth in aggregate CO2eemissions till 2030 in the IllustrativeScenario
7/28/2019 GHG Report
48/60
46
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
Figure 8: Growth in Per-Capita CO2e Emissions in the Illustrative Scenario
Figure 9: Change in energy intensity of the GDP during 2003-2030 in Illustrative Scenario
Figure 10: Change in CO2e Intensity of the GDP in the Illustrative Scenario
7/28/2019 GHG Report
49/60
47
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
Simulation Results
Figure 11: Effects of Varying TFPG and AEEI
Figure 12: Variation in CO2e Emissions Per-Capita with Change in AEEI
7/28/2019 GHG Report
50/60
48
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
3.2 Preliminary Results of TERI-MoEF Simulations
3.2.1 Scenario Definition:
Figure 13: CO2
emissions in the Illustrative Scenario
Figure 14: Trajectory of Per-capita CO2
emissions till 2031 in Illustrative Scenario
Figure 15: Commercial energy supplyacross scenarios
7/28/2019 GHG Report
51/60
49
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
Figure 16: Trajectory of Energy Intensity of GDP in Illustrative Scenario
Figure: 17: Trajectory of CO2
Intensity of GDP in Illustrative Scenario
3.3 Preliminary Results of IRADe-AA Model Simulations
3.3.1. Scenario Definition
O
O
O
O
O
7/28/2019 GHG Report
52/60
50
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
Figure 18: CO2
emissions in Illustrative Scenario
Year
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.002003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027
Illustrative scenario
2030
CO2emissions(GT)
CO2 emissions under illustrative scenario
Figure 19: Trajectory of Per-capita CO2e Emissions during 2001 to 2031 in Illustrative Scenario
Figure 20: Energy Intensity in Illustrative Scenario
7/28/2019 GHG Report
53/60
51
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
Figure 21: CO2
Intensity under Illustrative Scenario
3.3.4: Results of TERI-Poznan (MARKAL) Study:
Figure 22: CO2
emission in Illustrative scenario (2001-2031)
Figure 23: Per capita CO2
emission in Illustrative scenario
7/28/2019 GHG Report
54/60
52
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
Figure 24: Commercial energy supply in Illustrative scenario
Figure 25: Commercial energy intensity of economy in Illustrative scenario
Figure 26: CO2 emission intensity of economy in Illustrative scenario
7/28/2019 GHG Report
55/60
53
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
3.3.5: Results of McKinsey Bottom-up Study:
2 Includes nuclear, solar, hydro, biomass, geothermal and wind power
7/28/2019 GHG Report
56/60
54
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
3.4 Conclusions:
7/28/2019 GHG Report
57/60
55
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
References:
7/28/2019 GHG Report
58/60
56
INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies
Team Members of the Studies:
7/28/2019 GHG Report
59/60
7/28/2019 GHG Report
60/60
CONTACT US