GHG Report

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Results of Five Climate Modelling StudiesGHG Emissions Profile

INDIAS

Climate Modelling Forum, India

Supported by

Ministry of Environment and ForestsGovernment of India

September 2009


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Climate Modelling Forum, India

Supported by

Ministry of Environment and ForestsGovernment of India

September 2009

Results of Five Climate Modelling StudiesGHG Emissions ProfileINDIAS


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Foreword

jkT; ea=h Lora= izHkkji;kZoj.k ,oa ouHkkjr ljdkj

MINISTER OF STATE (INDEPENDENT CHARGE)

ENVIRONMENT & FORESTS

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

1 Carbon Dioxide equivalent

INDIAS GHG Emissions Profile: Results of Five Climate Modelling Studies


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2 Kilogram of oil equivalent3 Purchasing Power Parity


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A. BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE

B. STUDIES PRESENTED IN THIS REPORT

Executive Summary

1 The next step will involve modelling of mitigation options and costs, as well as the economic and foodsecurity implications of climate change on India. These are under investigation and will be published insubsequent reports.


5


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C. KEY RESULTS

2 1 tonne of carbon is equivalent to 3.67 tonnes of CO2e

3 The terminal year is 2031-32 for the TERI-MoEF and TERI-Poznan Studies.4 McKinsey study estimates include CH

4emissions from agriculture, not taken into account in the other models


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D. NOTE ON METHODOLOGIES

O

O


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O

O

O


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Table 1: Results for Illustrative Scenarios

5National Energy Map for India: Technology Vision 2030


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Table 2: Assumptions and data sources for Illustrative Scenarios


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Table 3: Models / Methodology Descriptions


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1. BACKGROUND

Indias GHG Emissions till 2030:A Compilation of Results of Five Recent Studies

1 Also under development, in respect of climate change impacts, are two linked models on water resources andagricultural crops. These two models are not further discussed in this report


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2. PART I: TECHNICAL DESCRIPTIONS OF MODELS/METHODOLOGY:

2.1 Overview: The Models and Methodologies:

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

O


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O

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

Figure 1: Structure of Partially Linked Energy-Economy Models


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2.2 Technical Description of the India Computable General EquilibriumModel

2.2.1 Model Structure


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Figure 2: Flow of Conventional Commodities, Factors, Payments and Transfer in the Economy


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2.2.2 Sectoral Disaggregation

Table 1: Sectoral Disaggregation in the CGE model

2.2.3 The Production Structure


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Figure 3 : The Production Nesting Diagram

2.2.4 Description of Model - Model Equations, Variables and Parameters


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0, =f

fib and0

'

'' ==f

i

ff

f

i

ff bb


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m

jjjj EXRpwmtmPM += .).1( j SIMP

ex

jjjj tePEPWE += )1( j SEXP

3. Ratio of Import to Domestic Demandmj

j

jm

j

m

jj PM

PDDRMD

+

=1

1

1 j SIMP DOMS

4. Demand for Imports

jjj QDRMDQM .= j SIMP DOMS

5. Armington Aggregation Equation

( ){ } mjmjmjj

m

jj

m

j

m

jj QDQMQQ

1

.1

+= j SIMP DOMS

6. Price of composite for imports and domestically used commodity

jjjjjj PDDQDPMQMQQPQ += j AS

7. Armington Aggregation equation for the case of no imports

j

m

jj QDQQ = j SNIMP

8. CET equation for exports and domestic

( ){ }exj

exjexj

jexjj

exj

exjj QDQEQX

1

1 += j SEXP DOMS

9. Ratio of exports and domestic demands1

1

1

=

exj

ex

j

ex

j

j

j

j

j

PDD

PE

QD

QE

j SEXP DOMS

10. Price of composite of exports and domestic commodity

jjjjjj QDPDDQEPEQXPX += j AS

11. CET equation for no exports

j

ex

jj

QDQX = j SNEXP

12. Commodity Market Balance

ii QAQX = i AS

13. Average cost pricing rule for industries

( ) iii

i TCtaPX

QA =

+1 i AS

14. Commodity Market Balance

jj QAQX = j AS

15. Average cost pricing rule for industries

( ) iii

i TCtaPX

QA =

+1 i AS


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16. Production costs for industries.

ij

j

ijif

f

ifi CCOPQINTPFQFTC 2.,,, ++= i ASf PFAC

17. Quantities of factor inputs (Translog Production Function)

i ASf FMAT

18. Commodity Inputs Aggregation Equation for Industries (cobb-Douglas Production function)

i AS

i AS

19. Ratio of materials and energy inputs in aggregate commodity inputs

i AS

20. Price of aggregate commodity inputs faced by industries

i AS

21. Effective cost of aggregate of Armington energies

i AS

e SEN

22. Quantity of aggregate of Armington energy inputs

i AS

e SEN

23. Quantity of each type of Armington energy employed in each industry

i AS

e SEN

24. Aggregation of Non-energy commodities as Industry Intermediate inputs

i AS

mat SMAT

25. Price of aggregate material input faced by industry

i AS

mat SMAT


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26. Ratio of domestic commodity to Armington composite.

i AS

27. Quantities of Domestic and Imported Energy of each type used as input by each industry.

j AS

e SEN

28. GHG emission by each industry in carbon equivalent

i AS

e SEN

g GHGS

29. Quantity of CO2

offsets generated in each industry

i AS

30. Net taxable or saleable CO2

emission by each industry

i AS

31. Penalty due to positive net CO2

emission by each industry.

i AS

32. Effective price of energy input for industry

i AS

e SEN

g GHGS

33. Effective price of capital for industry I in GE model

i AS

34. Effective price of labour for industry I in GE model

i AS

35. Effective land rental rate in each industry in GE model

i AS

36. Gross domestic product at factor costs

j AS

37. Households income by households class

i AS


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38. Disposable Household income by households class h

i AS

h HHSC

39. Net household income

h HHSC

40. Net households expenditure

h HHSC

41. Total government income

i AS

j AS

h HHSC42. Net public consumption expenditure

43. Consumer LES demand equations by households class

j AS

h HHSC

44. Consumer demand equation

j AS

h HHSC

45. Public demand equation

j AS

46. Value of gross investment in the economy

h HHSC

47. Investment demand by each Industry

i AS

48. Quantity of fixed investment demand for each Armington commodity in the economy.

i AS

j AS


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49. Quantity of change in stock demand for each Armington commodity

j AS

50. Total demand of Armington Composites in the Domestic market.

j AS

i AS

51. Export Demands for domestic Commodities

j SEXP

52. Labour market balance holds for GE model

i AS

53. Capital market balance holds for GE model

i AS

54. CO2e emission due to final consumer demands for energy commodities.

j AS

e SENg GHGS

55. CO2e emission due to final public demands for energy

j AS

e SEN

g GHGS

56. Net national CO2e emission.

i AS

57. Domestic CO2e balance in the economy

i AS

58. External CO2e balance of the National Economy

59. Price normalisation equation

j AS


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2.2.5 Data and Implementation of the Model


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2.2.6 Time Path of Exogenous Variables

2.2.7 Solution, Validation and Assumptions of the Model


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Assumptions on Technological change

Assumptions on Greenhouse Gas Emissions


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2.3 Technical Description of the TERI-MoEF (MARKAL) Model

Figure 4: MARKAL Building Blocks

2.3.1 MARKAL Objective Function

Annualized investment costs of energy technologies

O


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O

O

O

O

Mathematically:

Constraints


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Mathematically:

2.3.2 MARKALs Inputs and Outputs


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MARKAL Outputs

2.3.3 Integration of the MARKAL Model within the overall Modeling Framework


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2.3.4 Data Sources used in the MARKAL Model

OO

O

O

O

O

O

O

O


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O

2.4 Technical Description of the IRADE-Activity Analysis Model

2.4.1 Methodology

2.4.2 Description of model equations

+=i

ihthtihihoiht CECC )(


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ititititititit MYEIOIGC +++++

jtjtjtjtj ICORKKXX /)()( 1,,1,,

tjtjtj IKJDELK ,1,, *)( +=


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)()(*00

FTFTVAVASZZttoi it

++

tt VAtbaFT *)*( =

t

i

ti

i

iti FTEMTTM += ,, )*(

1,, *)1( + tiiti MMGRUM

1,, *)1( + tiiti MMGRLM

1,, *)1( + tiiti EEXGRUE


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Figure 5: Activity Analysis Model Graphical Representation of Structure


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2.4.3 Major features of the model

Sectors and Activities

O

O

O

O

Direct and Indirect Emissions:

Consumption and Savings:


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Trade

Model Inputs:

O

O

O

O


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Table 2: Resource and capacity constraints

Table 3: Import constraints on Energy inputs

Table 4: Assumptions of Exogenous parameters:


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Model Outputs

O

O

O

O

2.4.4 Data and Approach

2.5 The TERI-Poznan Study:


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2.6 The McKinsey Study:

O

O

O


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3. PART II: PRELIMINARY RESULTS OF STUDIES FOR ILLUSTRATIVESCENARIOS:

3.1 Preliminary Results of NCAER-CGE Simulations

O

O

O

O

O

Simulation Results:

Figure 6: GDP Growth Rate in the Illustrative Scenario

Figure 7: Growth in aggregate CO2eemissions till 2030 in the IllustrativeScenario


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Figure 8: Growth in Per-Capita CO2e Emissions in the Illustrative Scenario

Figure 9: Change in energy intensity of the GDP during 2003-2030 in Illustrative Scenario

Figure 10: Change in CO2e Intensity of the GDP in the Illustrative Scenario


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Simulation Results

Figure 11: Effects of Varying TFPG and AEEI

Figure 12: Variation in CO2e Emissions Per-Capita with Change in AEEI


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3.2 Preliminary Results of TERI-MoEF Simulations

3.2.1 Scenario Definition:

Figure 13: CO2

emissions in the Illustrative Scenario

Figure 14: Trajectory of Per-capita CO2

emissions till 2031 in Illustrative Scenario

Figure 15: Commercial energy supplyacross scenarios


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Figure 16: Trajectory of Energy Intensity of GDP in Illustrative Scenario

Figure: 17: Trajectory of CO2

Intensity of GDP in Illustrative Scenario

3.3 Preliminary Results of IRADe-AA Model Simulations

3.3.1. Scenario Definition

O

O

O

O

O


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Figure 18: CO2

emissions in Illustrative Scenario

Year

4.50

4.00

3.50

3.00

2.50

2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.002003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027

Illustrative scenario

2030

CO2emissions(GT)

CO2 emissions under illustrative scenario

Figure 19: Trajectory of Per-capita CO2e Emissions during 2001 to 2031 in Illustrative Scenario

Figure 20: Energy Intensity in Illustrative Scenario


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Figure 21: CO2

Intensity under Illustrative Scenario

3.3.4: Results of TERI-Poznan (MARKAL) Study:

Figure 22: CO2

emission in Illustrative scenario (2001-2031)

Figure 23: Per capita CO2

emission in Illustrative scenario


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Figure 24: Commercial energy supply in Illustrative scenario

Figure 25: Commercial energy intensity of economy in Illustrative scenario

Figure 26: CO2 emission intensity of economy in Illustrative scenario


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3.3.5: Results of McKinsey Bottom-up Study:

2 Includes nuclear, solar, hydro, biomass, geothermal and wind power


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3.4 Conclusions:


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References:


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Team Members of the Studies:


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