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POLICY BRIEF
SECURITY POLICY RESEARCH CENTER – SPRC 07/2017
RUSSIAN INFLUENCE IN THE BALKANS
A raising concern for Kosovo
(Policy Brief)
www.sprc-ks.org July 2017 Prishtina
2
Security Policy Research Center
Qendra Kërkimore për Politika të Sigurisë
Centar za istraživanje bezbednosnih politika
www.sprc-ks.org, [email protected], Ulpiana, D9, H-6, No:6, 10000 Prishtina
Russian influence in the Balkans: a raising concern for Kosovo (Policy Brief)
Published by:
Security Policy Research Center - SPRC
(Qendra Kërkimore për Politika të Sigurisë)
Author:
Burim Ramadani
Contributer:
Eris Hana
Prishtina,
July 2017
The original Report is written in Albanian language
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3
POLICY BRIEF
Russian influence in the Balkans: a raising concern for Kosovo
Content:
1. Introduction .................................................................................................. 4
2. ‘Soft Power’ - an integral part of Russia's influence in the Balkans ................ 5
3. “Humanitarian” Center in Serbia - "Access to Russian satellites" .................. 8
4. Russian propaganda: "Kosovo – a criminal enclave" ................................... 11
5. Conclusions and Recommendations ............................................................ 14
Notes ................................................................................................................ 15
4
1. Introduction
The role and influence of Russian Federation in Western Balkans countries and Kosovo has been
seen manifested either in terms of disrupting some of the Western Balkan countries’ stability, or
EU or Euro-Atlantic paths 1.
This argument is even more credible, given the Concept of Russian Foreign Policy, point C,
which states that “Russian’s foreign policy activities shall be aimed at accomplishing the
following main objectives: c. to consolidate the Russian Federation’s position as a centre of
influence in today’s world” 2. However, Russia's influence in the region and especially in
Kosovo has not been adequately researched and analyzed.
Therefore, this policy brief aims to contribute to raising institutional and social awareness of the
necessity for better understanding, identification, analysis of tools, methods, mechanisms and
level of influence of the Russian Federation in Kosovo.
Despite the fact that most of Kosovo's population, as well as Kosovo's institutions are clearly
pro-West oriented, Kosovo's institutions and activists in Kosovo must measure and determine the
influence of the Russian Federation in general in Kosovo, but also focused especially in
communities, civil society, media and economy / business. Such an approach is indispensable to
assist Kosovo's institutions in the decision-making process and in its efforts to remain steadfast
and secure on its path to Euro-Atlantic integrations.
The analysis is based on research on Russia's objectives in Kosovo and the Western Balkans.
Also in analysis related to Russia's level of Information War and propaganda in relation to
Kosovo, including the official response of the Moscow authorities in relation to developments in
Kosovo, and which could have an impact on the economy/business, civil society, Media and
non-state actors in Kosovo.
1 http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR_163_RETURN_TO_INSTABILITY.pdf, p.6
2 http://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/official_documents/-/asset_publisher/CptICkB6BZ29/content/id/2542248
5
2. ‘Soft Power’ - an integral part of Russia's influence in the
Balkans
Different methods, including the modern technology methods are the tools being used by
Russian authorities to achieve the objectives.
In its Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation - approved by President of the Russian
Federation Vladimir Putin on November 30, 2016 – it is very clearly emphasized the that the
“soft power” mechanisms show the new efforts and methods for achieving Russian objectives.
“Alongside military might, other important factors allowing States to influence international
politics are taking centre stage, including economic, legal, technological and IT capabilities…” 3,
and “In addition to traditional methods of diplomacy, "soft power" has become an integral part
of efforts to achieve foreign policy objectives. This primarily includes the tools offered by civil
society, as well as various methods and technologies – from information and communication, to
humanitarian and other types 4.
The authorities of the Russian Federation through propaganda interpretations about
developments in Kosovo seem to have a clear intention to increase confusion over the state of
Kosovo's stability. It is commonly noticed that Russian authorities represent Kosovo's statehood
as something completely temporary and that Kosovo's status will be a new issue in relations in
the Balkans and beyond. Moreover, it is noticed that in the last two years Russian authorities
have increased intensively the commenting of developments in Balkans in general and in
Kosovo, in particular.
Information campaigns are nothing new for Russia, which is leading them in the Balkans for at
least the last eight years, as Kosovo declared its independence from Serbia. Its strategy is to
3 Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation, 2016, Chapter II: Modern World and Foreign Policy of the
Russian Federation, point 8, http://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/official_documents/-
/asset_publisher/CptICkB6BZ29/content/id/2542248 4 Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation, 2016, Chapter II: Modern World and Foreign Policy of the
Russian Federation, point 9, http://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/official_documents/-
/asset_publisher/CptICkB6BZ29/content/id/2542248
6
create a perception of Russia as a powerful ally, with little substance behind it, in investments or
donations to countries in the region5.
Through the news agency, Sputnik6, which produces multimedia content in more than 30
languages around the world and has started work in November 2014, the Russian information
war has received a special dimension in relation to the Balkans and Kosovo. In a large number of
articles, including opinions and blog posts, Kosovo is portrayed as a territory occupied by the US
and NATO.
The title and illustrative
photo of the quoted
article, where in the
'background' section the
propaganda war in
relation to the truth in
Kosovo is clearly evident.
In an article titled “Second Kosovo?...”, Sputnik in a part of the commentary as the background
to the article, aims to compare the situation of Kosovo with that of Syria, propagating the
artificial ignition of ethnic tensions in the Balkans. "As for Kosovo, US military strategists had to
legitimize their military presence in the region. First, the US fueled ethnic tensions and clashed
and then NATO invaded Kosovo with the declared goal to stabilize the situation. Finally, the
region was declared a sovereign state, with NATO and US military structures deployed there"7.
5 For more, see: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/09/19/heres-how-russias-trying-to-
sway-opinion-in-serbia-and-the-balkans/?utm_term=.38294c29c5ca 6 For more detailed information, see: https://sputniknews.com/docs/about/index.html
7 For more, see: https://sputniknews.com/politics/201706181054739824-us-plan-syria/, published on 18 june 2017
7
At the same time, Russia has repeatedly encouraged conflicting agendas and attitudes towards
NATO and the EU in various countries in the Balkans.
Russia is strengthening its ties with nationalists in Serbia, encouraging Bosnian Serbs in their
struggle for more independence - or entirely - in Bosnia and has encouraged Kosovo Serbs to
insist on the same outcome in front of Kosovo. Also, "through its support for the opposition in
Montenegro, has kept it under tension”8.
The Russian propaganda campaign is very focused, targeting in general Serbian Slavic
communities in the Balkans. Russia's main policy tools are the television network, the internet
portal RT (formerly Russia Today) and the Sputnik Srbija news and broadcasting service. "Since
the beginning of 2015, both have had, and have combined, a relatively small staff of about 30
people"9.
Russia’s policy towards the Western Balkans, in the present circumstances of confrontation and
assertiveness towards the West, constitutes an immediate challenge to the EU’s objectives of
transformation. It seems that, “Russia is back, though its presence varies across different
countries, and in an unpredictable manner”10
.
Creating the balance of forces in the Western Balkans is a substantial part of Russian foreign
policy. “We have close ties in the field of military and technical cooperation. We are ready to
consider constructively any request that our Serbian friends can formulate to ensure the credible
protection of their country and certainly in the context of the overall balance of forces in the
region” 11
.
8 For more, see: http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/russia-never-went-away-from-the-balkans-01-18-2017
9 For more, see: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/09/19/heres-how-russias-trying-to-
sway-opinion-in-serbia-and-the-balkans/?utm_term=.38294c29c5ca 10
For more, see: http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR_163_RETURN_TO_INSTABILITY.pdf, p. 4 11 Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, speaking and answering media questions at the joint conference after
meeting with First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Serbia, Ivica Dacic, Belgrade, 12
december 2016, http://www.mid.ru/en/web/guest/meropriyatiya_s_uchastiem_ministra/-
/asset_publisher/xK1BhB2bUjd3/content/id/2559907
8
3. “Humanitarian” Center in Serbia - "Access to Russian
satellites"
Russia's intentions and efforts to influence and play a role in the Western Balkans are obvious.
High profile government officials of the Russian Federation have publicly mentioned Russia's
national interest and specific objectives in the Western Balkans. Here, indispensably, two
extremely important events are involved, one of which continues to be a 'quarrel evidence' in the
Balkans and the other that was prevented.
More specifically, the Russian-Serbian Humanitarian Center in Nis of Serbia, which was
founded in 2012, and is constantly seen in the dimension of a Russian espionage center and
attempted-coup in Montenegro in 2016.
In the case of Montenegro, the angry reaction of the Russian Federation with regard to the path
followed for NATO membership has been commented to have followed with actions that aimed
a coup.
As published in The Economist: "When NATO invited Montenegro to become the 29th member
of the military alliance on 2 December 2016, Russia reacted with anger. It was a controversial
open move, the foreign ministry said in a statement, and Russia will "respond accordingly."
"Russia is still making its most vulnerable presence in the Balkans. The government-funded
Sputnik Agency broadcasts radio and television news in Serbian language, in competition with
Western countries" 12
.
According to official judicial proceedings in Montenegro, on October 16, 2016, a plot was
organized, which failed to reach its objective. Montenegrin authorities have accused the Russian
Federation of planning to enter parliament and bring pro-Russian power. Montenegro's special
prosecutor, Milivoje Katnic, said that "nationalists from Russia were behind an attempt to kill the
prime minister and make a coup"13
.
12
For more, see: http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21683967-montenegros-accession-fills-one-few-
remaining-gaps-western-alliance 13
For more, see: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37890683
9
Meanwhile, as before, Russia has been paying considerable attention to Belgrade for a
considerable period of time. Also, traditionally Belgrade had confirmed ties with Moscow.
During 2016, Serbian President Tomislav Nikolic flirted with Putin while at the same time trying
to bring Serbia closer to the EU. In 2013, during a visit to Putin's summer residence in Sochi,
Nikolic signed a statement on the strategic partnership between Belgrade and Moscow. Later that
year, Serbia signed a military co-operation agreement with Russia. “And in October 2014, much
to Berlin’s chagrin, Serbia rolled out the red carpet for Putin, with Nikolić awarding him the
country’s highest order Moscow is focusing increasingly on the Western Balkans because it does
not want the region to become part of the West”14
.
Russia and Serbia have jointly established the "Russian-Serbian Humanitarian Center" in the city
of Nis in Serbia. On April 25, 2012, the agreement on the establishment of this center was signed
by Russia's Minister of Emergency Situations, Vladimir Puchkov and Serbian Minister of
Internal Affairs, Ivica Dacic. But the official goal of this agreement does not only include Serbia.
“The Russian-Serbian Humanitarian Center was founded in order to provide humanitarian
emergency response in Serbia and other Balkan states”15
.
Although this Center is officially devoted to emergency situations and humanitarian response, it
has not avoided its involvement in social life in Serbia. This, of course, is also related to the
purposes of 'soft power' as defined in the Russian Foreign Policy Concept. “Fulfilling its
mission of humanitarian organization the Center is an active participant in the social life of
Serbia. It cooperates with the non-governmental, religious and veterans’ organizations, schools
and media”16
.
Moreover, according to the initial agreement, Serbia has pledged to grant the diplomatic status of
the employees in this Center, which has two co-directors17
: Bojan Glamoclija from the Serbian
side and Viacheslav Vlasenko, acting director from the Russian side.
14
For more, see: http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/57301 15
For more, see: http://en.ihc.rs/about 16
For more, see: http://en.ihc.rs/about 17
For more, see: http://en.ihc.rs/org
10
The Russian-
Serbian
Humanitarian
Center (RSHC)
intends to have
access to Russia's
Spatial Satellites.
Hence, Russia
insists on a special
status for the
Center and
immunity and
diplomatic
protection for its
employees.
The American response to this center has included Washington's concern “not so much for what
it is now, but what it might become if it receives what Russia has been asking from Serbia, which
is some kind of special status, a protected diplomatic status or immunity”18
.
“If it allows Russia to create some kind of a special center for espionage or other nefarious
activities, it will lose control over part of its territory”, said Yee19
.
Although the leaders of this center have tried to explain their activities as related to civil
emergency issues, the intent of accessing Russian satellites has never been concealed.
“Through the Russian-Serbian Humanitarian Center, we have the opportunity to get information
from the National Center for Emergency Management in Russia about the dangers threatening
our country,”20
.
18
See Senate Statements by US State Deputy Assistant, Hoyt Brian Yee, on 15 june 2017,
https://www.voanews.com/a/united-states-sees-russia-humanitarian-center-serbia-spy-outpost/3902402.html 19
Ibid. 20
See Glamoclija's interview, on 28 june 2017,
http://www.b92.net/eng/news/politics.php?yyyy=2017&mm=06&dd=28&nav_id=101665
11
4. Russian propaganda: "Kosovo – a criminal enclave"
An illustrative case for the Russian Federation's propaganda interpretation for Kosovo is the
commenting through the official communication of the Russian Foreign Ministry on the results
of the 11 June elections in Kosovo, presenting these results as a "political radicalization of the
authorities in Pristina, such as the result of a silent agreement between the US and the EU"21
.
In general, regarding Kosovo, the Russian Federation is challenging to recognize Kosovo's
statehood, while President Putin has stressed his contradictions against Western countries on
several occasions. “We keep hearing from the United States and Western Europe that Kosovo is
some special case. What makes it so special in the eyes of our colleagues? It turns out that it is
the fact that the conflict in Kosovo resulted in so many human casualties. Is this a legal
argument? The ruling of the International Court says nothing about this. This is not even double
standards; this is amazing, primitive, blunt cynicism. One should not try so crudely to make
everything suit their interests, calling the same thing white today and black tomorrow. According
to this logic, we have to make sure every conflict leads to human losses. “22
.
Moreover, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov mentions UNSC Resolution 1244 as the
only legal basis for Kosovo. “We support all the actions that are being undertaken to resolve the
Kosovo problem in strict compliance with UN Security Council Resolution 1244. We stand in
solidarity with our Serbian friends and will resist attempts to unilaterally rewrite this resolution.
Any solution can only be subject to a general consensus between Belgrade and Pristina“23
.
21
For more, see the special press release from the Ministry of External Affairs of the Russian Federation for the
election results to 11 June 2017, published on June 14, 2017: http://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/-
/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/2783567?p_p_id=101_INSTANCE_cKNonkJE02Bw&_101_INSTAN
CE_cKNonkJE02Bw_languageId=en_GB 22
Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, in front of the deputies of the State Duma, members of the Federal
Council, leaders of Russian regions and representatives of civil society in the Kremlin, March 18, 2014,
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20603 23
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, speaking and answering media questions at the joint conference after
meeting with First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Serbia, Ivica Dacic, Belgrade,
December 12, 2016,http://www.mid.ru/en/web/guest/meropriyatiya_s_uchastiem_ministra/-
/asset_publisher/xK1BhB2bUjd3/content/id/2559907
12
Moreover, it seems that different methods - including the information war - were used to create
the perception of Kosovo as a "criminal enclave". “This territory has become a criminal enclave
and a hideout for bandits and terrorists (let’s call things by their real names), rather than a
prosperous state, as had been promised by the Western community”24
.
The meeting
between Russian
President
Vladimir Putin
and Prime
Minister of
Serbia (now
President),
Aleksandar Vucic,
on March 27,
2017 in Moscow
(Kremlin's official
web site).
Finally, during the meeting Putin - Vucic in Moscow (March 27, 2017), the Russian President
itself spoke about the security situation in the Western Balkans region. “...Of course, we very
much want to discuss with you the situation in the region today, because various outside signs
suggest that a degree of escalation is taking place”25
. In addition to Security, Putin was also
talking about economic projects in bilateral relations with Serbia.
24 Press conference of the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, Maria Zakharova, Moscow,
March 16, 2017,
http://www.mid.ru/en/web/guest/foreign_policy/news//asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/2687802
President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, during a meeting with Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar
Vucic, Moscow, March 27, 2017, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54109
13
“We saw a slight increase of around 2 percent in bilateral trade last year. Your Government’s
efforts meant that this increase was mostly thanks to growing exports from Serbia to Russia.
Some sectors were leaders in this, agriculture, for example, with an increase of around 40
percent. We have good joint projects that are developing actively, especially in the energy sector.
I am sure we will discuss all of this today “26
.
For regional security and economic ties, the Prime Minister of Serbia was cituar as follows:
“I want to say that we need to thank you personally and the Russian Federation for supporting
the Republic of Serbia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. As you said, I hope and am sure
that we will have plenty of opportunities to increase our bilateral trade and economic ties. .... It is
very important that, as you know, we remain committed to our national independence, freedom
and military neutrality. We will discuss together all of this and examine the steps we need to take
for the future”27 .
26
Ibid. 27
Prime Minister of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, during a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, 27 March
2017, Moscow , http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54109
14
5. Conclusions and Recommendations
Given the context of the abovementioned developments, the concrete actions interconnected
particularly with the "Humanitarian Center in Nis", the attempted-coup in Montenegro, the
information propaganda war on Kosovo and the truth of Kosovo, it can be clearly concluded that
the Russian Federation intends to spread global confusion around Kosovo.
This can also be clarified by analyzing the main objectives of the Russia's Foreign Policy
Concept, which specifies the dimension of 'soft power' as a strategy for achieving goals in the
Western Balkans and in this context, as well as in relation to Kosovo.
The main elements of the Russian Federation's propaganda war in relation to Kosovo seem to be
summarized in at least as following:
- Distortion of Kosovo's truth from abroad and in relation to other states,
- Presentation of Kosovo as "territory occupied by the US and NATO",
- Strengthening the mechanisms, beside others, also Satellite in neighborhood (in Serbia),
- Confusion about the sustainability of the state of Kosovo and the "necessity" of finding
another legal status of Kosovo,
- The aim to portray Kosovo as "criminal enclave", as well
- The persistent and aggressive accusations of the "US-EU hidden agreement on the
political radicalization of Kosovo's authorities".
Therefore, a comprehensive institutional and Kosovar society approach to confront Russia's
propaganda war against Kosovo is indispensable and requires strategic clarification.
Also, full research is important to enlighten on Russian influence in the region and in Kosovo.
15
Notes
http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR_163_RETURN_TO_INSTABILITY.pdf, p.6
http://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/official_documents/-
/asset_publisher/CptICkB6BZ29/content/id/2542248
Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation, 2016, Chapter II: Modern World and Foreign
Policy of the Russian Federation, http://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/official_documents/-
/asset_publisher/CptICkB6BZ29/content/id/2542248
https://sputniknews.com/docs/about/index.html
https://sputniknews.com/politics/201706181054739824-us-plan-syria/, publikuar më 18 qershor
2017
http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/russia-never-went-away-from-the-balkans-01-18-2017
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/09/19/heres-how-russias-trying-
to-sway-opinion-in-serbia-and-the-balkans/?utm_term=.38294c29c5ca
http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR_163_RETURN_TO_INSTABILITY.pdf, p. 4
http://www.mid.ru/en/web/guest/meropriyatiya_s_uchastiem_ministra/-
/asset_publisher/xK1BhB2bUjd3/content/id/2559907
http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21683967-montenegros-accession-fills-one-few-
remaining-gaps-western-alliance
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37890683
http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/57301
http://en.ihc.rs/about
http://en.ihc.rs/about
http://en.ihc.rs/org
https://www.voanews.com/a/united-states-sees-russia-humanitarian-center-serbia-spy-
outpost/3902402.html
http://www.b92.net/eng/news/politics.php?yyyy=2017&mm=06&dd=28&nav_id=101665
http://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/-
/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/2783567?p_p_id=101_INSTANCE_cKNonkJE02B
w&_101_INSTANCE_cKNonkJE02Bw_languageId=en_GB
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20603
http://www.mid.ru/en/web/guest/meropriyatiya_s_uchastiem_ministra/-
/asset_publisher/xK1BhB2bUjd3/content/id/2559907
http://www.mid.ru/en/web/guest/foreign_policy/news/-
/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/2687802
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54109
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54109
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54109
16
Cataloging in Publication – (CIP)
National Library of Kosovo “Pjetër Bogdani”
327(47:497)(091)
327(47:(496.51)(091)
Ramadani, Burim
Russian influence in the Balkans: a raising conern for Kosovo : (Policy
Brief) / Burim Ramadani. – Pristina : Security Policy Research Center,
2017. – 17 f. ; 21 cm.
ISBN 978-9951-8949-1-3
17
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July 2017 Prishtinë