Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program: Global Cities Initiative - Seattle

transcript

GLOBAL CITIES INITIATIVEA J O I N T P R OJ ECT O F B R O O K I N GS A N D J P M O R GA N C H AS E

Seattle, WA / April 10, 2014@bruce_katz #globalcities

7.4 millionjobs needed

More Jobs

81 millionpoor or near poor in 2000

More Jobs & Better Jobs

107 millionpoor or near poor in 2011

More Jobs & Better Jobs

HUMAN CAPITALINNOVATION

MANUFACTURING

INFRASTRUCTURE

ADVANCED ENERGY

EXPORTS

R&DOPPORTUNITY

CONSUMPTION

DEBTCONSUMPTION

DEBTDEBTCONSUMPTION

CONSUMPTION DEBTDEBT

CONSUMPTIONDEBT

Pre-Recession Economy Next Economy

The imperative for global engagement

Metros are centers of global trade and investment

1 2 31

1 2 31 2

3 Metros are engaging globally in new ways

METROINNOVATION

The imperative for global engagement

Global GDP

19.9%US

21.0%BIC Countries

Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2013

Global GDP

28.2%BIC Countries

17.6%US

Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2013

Global Metro Population

Source: UN Department of Economic-Social Affairs, World Urbanization Prospects, 2009

China Africa

49% 39%

Urban Share of Total Population2010

China Africa India

+297 million by 2030

40%69% 48%

Urban Share of Total Population2030

Source: Boston Consulting Group, “Winning in Emerging Market Cities,” (2010)Photos: Wikipedia/Jonathan Olsson, Jeet221990, Flickr/United Nations Photos, Francisco Anzota

$30-$40 trilliontotal infrastructure investment required in emerging market cities, 2010 - 2030

Source: Boston Consulting Group, “Winning in Emerging Market Cities,” (2010)Photos: Wikipedia/Jonathan Olsson, Jeet221990, Flickr/United Nations Photos, Francisco Anzota

$13.8 trilliontotal housing investment required in emerging market cities, 2010 - 2030

Source: McKinsey Global Institute, “Urban World: Cities and the Rise of the Consuming Class,” (2012)

$200 billiontotal investment in increasing global port capacity by 2025

5,000$1 billion increase in exports supports

11%wage premiumin exporting firms

Greater likelihood of health and retirement benefits in export-intense industries

22%wage premiumin foreign-owned firms

14%US productivity growth contributed by foreign-owned firms

5.0%foreign-owned firms employ

US workers

How are we doing on trade and investment?

billionUS manufactured exports 2010

$680$944

United States GermanyFrance

Top Manufacturing Exporting Countries2010, Billions

Source: World Trade Organization, 2011

ServiceImports

ServiceExports

US Service TradeBillions, 2010

$160 billiontrade surplus

Source: World Trade Organization, 2011 (Data reflect Commercial Services)

Exports Share of GDP2010

United States

29% 22%

China Canada India

European Union

Source: Brookings analysis of WTO and EIU data, 2011

France

United StatesChinaBelgium

United Kingdom

$1.32$2.26

Top Foreign Direct Investment Stock2012, Trillions

Source: Brookings analysis of NETS, D&B, Moody’s and BEA data

US Share of Global FDI Flows

Source: Brookings analysis of NETS, D&B, Moody’s and BEA data

Can we realize the potential of global markets?

Advanced Industries

Innovation Human Capital Infrastructure

Software Computer Systems Design

Telecommunications R&D Consulting Services

Services

Pharmaceuticals AdvancedMachinery

Medical EquipmentMotor Vehicles & Parts

Computer & Electronic Devices

Aerospace

Manufacturing

Advanced Industries

85%advanced industry share of private sector R&D

67%advanced industry share of patents

30%advanced industryshare of engineers

Sources: Brookings analysis of BRDIS, Strumsky-Lobo Patent Database, and OES data

Advanced Industries

Drive Productivity in Other Industries

Stimulate Local Economies

Support LongSupply Chains

Develop Technology that Transforms Lives

Advanced Industries

3.5% 4.4%

France United States

United Kingdom

European Union

5.0%3.8%

Germany South Korea

Growth of Domestic R&D ExpendituresAverage Annual Growth, 2001-2011

Source: National Science Foundation, SEI 2014

Innovation

Advanced Industries

Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey

Hispanics

African Americans

Non-Hispanic Whites

Asians

25%39%

Educational AttainmentAssociate’s Degree or Higher

United States

Human Capital

Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey

Hispanics

African Americans

Educational AttainmentAssociate’s Degree or Higher

Human Capital

Advanced Industries

Infrastructure

Transport Networks are Clogged and Congested

Metros are centers of global trade and investment

1 2 31

Source: Brookings analysis of US Bureau of Economic Analysis data

Seattle Metropolitan Area

Source: Brookings, Metropolitan Areas and the Next Economy (2011)

Population

Washington

Seattle, Portland, Spokane, Olympia, Kennewick-Pasco-Richland, Bremerton-Silverdale, Yakima, Bellingham, Mount Vernon-Anacortes,

Wenatchee, Longview and Lewiston Metropolitan Areas

Source: Brookings, Metropolitan Areas and the Next Economy (2011)

Population

Washington

Service Exports

75%63%

Manufacturing Exports

Population

Top 100 Metro ExportsShare of U.S. Totals

Source: Brookings, ExportNation 2012

Top 100 Metro Exports

Chemical Products

68% 76%

Business/Professional

Services

Computer/Electronic Products

Population

Share of U.S. Totals

Source: Brookings, ExportNation 2012

Top 100 Metro International Connectivity

Air Cargo

83% 83%

Water Cargo Air Passengers

Population

Share of U.S. Totals

Source: Brookings, Global Gateways (2012) and Metro Freight (2013)

Population

Advanced Industry

Employment

FDI Employment

Employment in Advanced Industries and Foreign-Owned Firms

Top 100 Metro Share of U.S. Totals

Aerial imagery: © DigitalGlobe, GeoEye, Sanborn, USGS, USDA FSA, warrior481.blogspot.com

Seattle, WA - Human Capital & Innovation Dashboard

Education

Top 100Metros

SeattleMetro

Bachelor’s Degree Attainment

31.8%37.0%

STEM Jobs

25.9%Share of Jobs in STEM

4th of Top 100 Metros

38.5%STEM Jobs Not Requiring BA

Patents

3,968Total Patents,

2007-2011

5th of 358 Metros

2.3Patents per 1k Workers

15th of 358 Metros

Top Patenting FirmsMicrosoftBoeing

Invention Science FundIntel

University of Washington

Source: Brookings, State of Metropolitan America (2012), The Hidden STEM Economy (2013) and Patenting Prosperity (2013)

Source: Brookings, ExportNation (2013)

$47.1 b

Top 100Metros

SeattleMetro

Export Intensity

Export Value

Goods & Services Exports

25.1%goods share of exports

74.9%goods share

of exports

Top Goods SectorsTop Goods SectorsAircraft Products and Parts 57.4%

Petroleum and Coal Products 2.3%

General Purpose Machinery 1.6%

Top Services SectorsTop Services Sectors

IT Royalties 8.3%

Freight and Port Services 1.7%

Air Transportation Services 1.5%

Seattle, WA - Export Dashboard

Source: Forthcoming Brookings research on metropolitan FDI

Foreign Direct InvestmentJobs

65,045FDI Employment

Top Foreign Employers Metro-to-Metro Investment

Wireless TelecommunicationsT-MobileSuncom

TritonPowertel

AerospaceC&D Zodiac

IDD AerospaceJamco

Compass-Aerospace NW

Computer Systems Design

NCSoftAtos IT Solutions

AvandeAreva T&D

Top Investor Metros by JobsTop Investor Metros by JobsTop Investor Metros by Jobs1 Dusseldorf, Germany 13.4%2 Tokyo, Japan 12.7%3 Paris, France 7.8%4 Montreal, Canada 6.1%5 Toronto, Canada 4.6%6 Vancouver, Canada 4.6%7 Sydney, Australia 3.9%8 Oxford, England 3.5%

Seattle, WA - Foreign Investment Dashboard

4.6%FDI Employment

Intensity

Source: Brookings, Global Gateways (2012) and Metro Freight (2013)

$185.3 b

Top 100Metros

SeattleMetro

International Trade Share

15.8%20.8%

Total Goods Trade

Goods Trade Air Travel

International Passengers

13th of Top 90 Metros15th of Top 100 Metros2,748,861

Top Metros of Origin/DestinationTop Metros of Origin/DestinationTop Metros of Origin/Destination1 Seoul-Incheon, South Korea 5.0%2 London, United Kingdom 4.6%3 Tokyo, Japan 3.9%4 Victoria, Canada 3.9%5 Vancouver, Canada 3.8%6 Puerto Vallarta, Mexico 3.2%7 San Jose Del Cabo, Mexico 3.1%8 Beijing, China 2.6%

Top Global Country/Region Trading Partners

1 China 5.6%2 Japan 2.4%3 Canada 2.2%4 Mexico 1.7%5 Other South-Eastern Asia 1.2%6 Other Western Asia 1.0%7 South Korea 0.9%8 Other Northern Europe 0.7%

Seattle, WA - Freight & Air Dashboard

1 2 31 2

3 Metros are engaging globally in new ways

METROINNOVATION

Catalyze Trade & Investment

Legacy of Global Orientation

Seattle as a Globally Competitive Region

Market AssessmentTarget Sectors

8% 9%12%

Economic Profile15%

Establish Goals & Strategies

Boost SME exportsIncrease global fluency

Double exports Support key sectors

Government

Philanthropy

Universities

Collaborate to Compete

Global Cities Exchange

BrandingGlobal Cities Exchange

PORTLANDWEBUILD

GREENCITIES

I amsterdam

Invest in What Matters

CHICAGO$70 million

Digital Manufacturing & Design Innovation Institute

Lightweight & Modern Metals Manufacturing Innovation Institute

DETROIT$70 million

National Additive Manufacturing Innovation Institute

YOUNGSTOWN$30 million

National Network for Manufacturing Innovation

Next Generation Power Electronics Manufacturing Innovation Institute

RALEIGH$70 million

PORTMIAMIExpansion and improvements

PORTMIAMIInnovation Human Capital Infrastructure

Deep Dredge Project $220 million project, funded solely through state & local resources

Port of Miami TunnelInnovative public-private partnership

Intermodal Rail Reconstruction Project Financed with competitively-awarded federal funds to a partnership of the port, county & railway

Invest in What Matters Network Globally

Chicago

Mexico City

Chicago

Mexico City2nd largestMexican immigrant population resides in Chicago metro area

130Chicago-based firms with operations in Mexico City

$1.7 billiontotal bilateral trade of locally produced products

290,000tourists and business travelers between Chicago and Mexico City per year

GLOBAL CITIES ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP

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GLOBAL CITIES INITIATIVEA J O I N T P R OJ ECT O F B R O O K I N GS A N D J P M O R GA N C H AS E

Seattle, WA / April 10, 2014@bruce_katz #globalcities

Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program: Global Cities Initiative - Seattle

Economy & Finance