Gridded population projections

Brian O’Neill, NCAR2016 GTAP Advisory Board Meeting

June 14, 2016Washington, DC

Uses

Climate change impacts (e.g.,extremes, coastal impacts)

Spatial allocation of emissions

Spatial land use and land cover

Subnational energy and water demand

Main Features

Global extent

2010-2100 time horizon

Urban and rural population

1/8 degree (~12 km) resolution

Jones & O’Neill, in review.Jones & O’Neill, 2012,

2015 (US only)

Data

Gridded Population of the World (GPW), SEDAC/CIESIN1990, 2000 (2010 released in beta), 2.5 arc minutes (~5 km)

Global Rural-Urban Mapping Projection (GRUMP)

Administrative Boundaries Population density

Costa Rica

Projection Model

Gravity modelConstrained by national-level projections of total population and % urbanParameters estimated from historical data (GPW/GRUMP)

Five Global Scenarios

SSP1

a f

SSP3

c h

Nigeria

SSP1:Low populationHigh urbanizationConcentrated

development

SSP3:High populationLow urbanizationSprawling

development

Density, 2100 Change in Density

Jones & O’Neill, in review.

Spatial population projections

Billion person-days per year of exposure to heat waves, 2061-2080

800

600

400

200

0

High climateToday Med climate

High pop.

Low pop.

High pop.

Low pop.

Climate model projections

Example Application: Future exposure to heat waves

Jones et al., in prep.

SSP 5Fossil-fueled Development

Global Pop.2061-2080 avg.8.5 billion

PopulationChange

PopulationDensity

Jones & O’Neill, in prep.

Quantitative projections of SSP elements

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

GDP

per c

apits

($/c

ap -

PPP)

GDP/capPopulation

Urbanization

(IIASA) (NCAR) (OECD, PIK, IIASA)

(CUNY, NCAR)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Popu

latio

n (M

illio

ns)

Distance (km)

Population by Distanceto the CoastFlorida, 2100

A2, High Pop. Growth

EPAmodel

NCAR model, lower pop. growth (B2)

NCARmodel

IIASAmodel

Current

Mosquito occurrence pattern:Type 1: Year-around potential for high abundanceType 2: Year-around presence but only seasonal potential for high abundanceType 3: Only seasonal presence of active stages, with overwintering eggsType 4: Only seasonal presence of active stages, with no overwintering eggs producing viable larvae

Monaghan et al., submitted.

Monaghan et al., submitted.

Urbanization

France: SSP5