Inleiding werkgroep 26 september 2012

transcript

Justien Marseille

from hunting to farming2008

zeeuws vlaanderen,2008

Circus der gedachten Carre amsterdam

The future Of money, 2008

future of ict & education2010 / 2011

Trend alert, 1993

Oh crisis #3,2012

Pressure cooker care2009

from big Brother to Big sister,2007

For ever moving2007

from capitalism to Marktmarxism,

the rumour ..column SER jubilee

nominated to be2010

nominated to be2011

from democracy to Meritocracy

Friend or fiend Co creation

coolhaveneiland, 2009

news-radio analysis

TEdxYouth team,2011

CReating 010 getting the context

EmotionalSubculture

ConceptualGroup

Complex systems Network

LAGGARDS

EARLY & LATE MAJORITY

EARLY ADAPTORS

INNOVATORS

Passion driven inventors,disloyal.

Gatekeepers, selects and adapts innovations

The majority, in search for similarity and save leadership risk avoiding

Cannot or wil not follow

2020201520001995

Rogers’ Innovation Diffusion Model

Arrival (and over-arrived) signals are underestimated, the well known is overestimated

(the more to the mean the bigger the miscalculation)

De gatekeeper, early adapter, influencer,includes, shuts it out. He selects, adapt or adopt,

Herewith guiding the group, its follower in direction and speed.

Innovator early adopters early and late mass laggard

Cognitive dissonance / selective perception

Eeks! Strange! Of course! Done that. Of course! Strange! Eeks!

Designers translation roleThe chasm

Designer as process facilitator& translator

Kritisch en zonder vreesover mogelijke toekomsten

Eeks! Uiterst merkwaardig! Goh! Logisch! Heb ik ook. Logisch! Goh! Uiterst merkwaardig! Eeks!

De waarde (en invloed) van zowel innovator als laggard (‘de creatief ’ ) wordt structureel onderschat. De waarde van dat wat we (nog maar net) kennen wordt structureel overschat.

De gevolgen van cognitieve dissonantie leiden tot de (Vincent) Van Gogh paradox: waardeloos voor en onbetaalbaar na erkenning.

Opgaaf voor de toekomst is te komen met economisch service design / business model dat recht doet aan de waarde van de creatief, die vorm geeft aan die toekomst.

---Micromedia en data analyse lijken deze paradox te kunnen doorbreken en openen de black box,

individuele creatieve toevoegingen worden traceerbaar en analyseerbaar.Niet alleen maakt dit de toekomst voorspelbaar, het erkent ook de waarde van dat wat afwijkt.

The spread of a new idea is influenced by four main elements: (Rogers, e, 1967)

The innovation, communication channels, time, and a social system. (Rogers, E. , 1963)

-Due to the rule of cognitive dissonance men tends to underestimate the effect of the unknown- (and overestimate the effect of the things we are over involved in.)

Most of the time (80- 99%) we just follow, blind for the signals that are cognitive dissonant to what we believe and want t o see

fig. 1

* Predictable Future

Kritisch en zonder vreesover mogelijke toekomsten

Eeks! Uiterst merkwaardig! Goh! Logisch! Heb ik ook. Logisch! Goh! Uiterst merkwaardig! Eeks!

De waarde (en invloed) van zowel innovator als laggard (‘de creatief ’ ) wordt structureel onderschat. De waarde van dat wat we (nog maar net) kennen wordt structureel overschat.

De gevolgen van cognitieve dissonantie leiden tot de (Vincent) Van Gogh paradox: waardeloos voor en onbetaalbaar na erkenning.

Opgaaf voor de toekomst is te komen met economisch service design / business model dat recht doet aan de waarde van de creatief, die vorm geeft aan die toekomst.

---Micromedia en data analyse lijken deze paradox te kunnen doorbreken en openen de black box,

individuele creatieve toevoegingen worden traceerbaar en analyseerbaar.Niet alleen maakt dit de toekomst voorspelbaar, het erkent ook de waarde van dat wat afwijkt.

Most of the time we are blind to see the real value of fenemoenons, due tot the law of cognitieve dissonance.

Value at true value.

fig. 1

* New signals

*Measurable since the explosion of the social whispering

Fig. 1 Arrivals New signals < 0,0125 % of the populationFig 2 S (Speed) Time from first to reach 13,5 - 20% of the populationFig 3. D (Direction) Adoption and attitude towards the arrival by people, rated by influence *or colourFig. invoegen Interpretation of the chasm, translation into mass models designing Fig 4. CD (CogDis) Cognitive Dissonance, slows or fastens the diffusion.Fig. 5 (C )Context Context, 5-7 main drivers of change

F(uture)= A*(S*D)*CD*C( *ofzoiets) ,

Arrival and over arrived signals are underestimated, the well known is overestimated

(the more to the mean the bigger the miscalculation)

De gatekeeper, early adapter, influencer,includes, shuts it out. He selects, adapt or adopt,

Herewith guiding the group, its follower in direction and speed.

Innovator early adopters early and late mass laggard

Cognitive dissonance / selective perception

Eeks! Strange! Goh! Of course! Done that. Of course!! Goh! Strange! Eeks!

The designers translation roleThe chasm

social city

meeting the mailmantalking to the neighbours

sharing your groundyour beliefs

storiestime

contactsrecognition

need for belonging

designing the futurecreating the context

entertainment

sharing stories

being included, recognized

connecting in public space

contact

physics, outside

waiting situations

awkwardness

certain placesairports, station,

hallway

sharing live contact

shorten distance

lonleyless

Is work, or the plant still driver for the city? or did the city became a social node?

50.000 followers helped to search the Nevada desert. One request from the

hart, with joined forces, worth a fortune in old values.

driving forcesself organisation by

reputation.

food & spacemicro-use

...City gardening. Unstable upwards. In need of better self organisation.

Social networks are about interests..

*Network message food & nature ..

...there are fresh Jeruzalem Artichokes, do you like to join to get some?

social city

every niche has its followers

Self-sufficiency, not out of a lack of money,

but out of a need for independence

social city

where are we willing to collaborate, share stories? Where starts the inside and

what do we share in our private space and In what way do we like to be spoken to?

everything is a touchpoint. Research the context.

Is it a restaurant, a home kitchen or a meeting place?

Is it safe? Is there a way to make it work for you?Collect signs and sources.

distance and nearness

Where does social start

distance and nearness

Where does social start

The book of abundance.

...While scarcity dissolves material goes back to museal values. The value of history.

Sustainable. Deventer, 2011.

Shopkeeper or pass timer?

Poverty or smart meeting place?

...Question old paradigms, about markets, advertising, wealth.

driving forces

end of scarcity

social city is not aobut things,

it is about attention.

HAKa Building, Delfshaven.

...Romancing the elderly and their old fashioned concepts. Things that just work. Searching for small trust. Possible due to

network garranties.

In need of better self organisation...smart links between data and the users,

direct, relevant, pushed.

#Sharing In a connected culture it is not about monopolising means

but about mobilising forces, goods & needs10 miljoen koste het, en er hangt een advertentie voor de app op de i phone onder.

entertainment

sharing stories

contact

fysics, outside

waiting situations

awkwardness

hallway

sharing live contact

shorten distance

entertainment

sharing stories

contact

fysics, outside

waiting situations

awkwardness

the hallway

The spread of a new idea is influenced by four main elements: (Rogers, e, 1967)

The innovation, communication channels, time, and a social system.

Everybody is connected to everythingFrom hunter-gatherers in territories to citizens in nation states,to employees in organisations,

To individuals in networks.With different roles, in different situations, with different values.

From hierarchie to networkmore local bound then ever

KellyTNW’07 , Friedman , Pralahad, 1994 ev.

Faster than the car or mobile, #micromedia reached 50% of the public.

And the public found each other.

In many touch points. Clustered around interests, needs, wants.

REsearchtouchpoints

driversconnection nodes

communication channels

The app Buitenbeter wakes the civil servant in of all of us.

driving forceszelforganisation of public

http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2011-10/santa-cruz-experiment

driving forcesprodictable futures

• Connecting

• About and through what? When, where, why?

• Sharing thoughts, time, stories, means

• Collected, selected and communicated trough certain channels.

• In public spaces

• Touch points and communicators

Social city is about

justien Marseille

meaningful innovative education

creating 010

...een veilige plek om mijn gedachten te te laten landen..

predictable futures

cases:http://www.socialcitiesoftomorrow.nl/

broaden your horizon

>Designing with Life Code, tJuan Enriquez

creatief beheer

Arrivalcities.net

ValuesLearning devices Representations

Phenomena

Design as a process of Worldmaking

Interventions

PeopleActivities

InteractionsProductsArtefactsContextBusiness

TechnologyStoriesEffectsEtc...

ActivitiesInteractions

ProductsArtefactsBusiness

TechnologyEtc...

QuestioningReadingUsing

ListeningObservingWatchingAnalysingMaking

EvaluatingSimulatingDiscussingCritiquing

Etc...

PrototypesPosters

SketchesStories

ScenariosMovies

DiagramsPersonas

Fact sheetsCapture cardsPresentations

ReportsEtc.

Knowledge

ExperiencesInspiration

AssumptionsFacts

Models

TrendsObservations

Information

Insights

Stories

Principles Theories

Worldmaking is a process of forming an idiosyncratic mental model in

order to understanding the factors that drive the transformation from the

current state to the desired state.

Design methods and techniques are are learning devices that

support these activities.

Bas Leurs (b.l.f.leurs@hr.nl)June 14, 2012

and their

values

The intervention ultimately leads to a change in the world

These representations are used to share the mental model with stake-

holders or to supprt the inner dialogue of the designer.