Post on 19-Dec-2015
transcript
Recent Trends in Organic Tree Fruit Production: 2002
David GranatsteinCenter for Sustaining Agriculture and Natural Resources, Wenatchee, WA
Organic pears near Chelan, WA
Growth of Organic Food Sales
Projected $20 billion in sales by 2005
Source: Organic Trade Association
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US
Org
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ic F
oo
d S
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s (
bil
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n $
)
Acreages of Main Organic Crops in WA 2002 Cert. Trans.
• Tree Fruit 10773 2186• Grapes 1410 298• Berries 380 114• Hay 4280 329• Pasture 3043 81• Grains 4110 70• Fallow 2368 88• Herbs 1982 5• Vegetables 9335 43
Total 39501 3381
The “Organic Divide”
WEST EASTCertified Acres 5656 (18%) 25,312 (82%)Transition Acres 80 (2%) 3,904 (98%)
# Growers 143 (34%) 276 (66%)
Ave. Acres/Grower 39.5 91.7
Washington Organic Tree Fruit Acreage* by County - 2001
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Acr
es
Apple Pear Cherry
* certified + transition
Estimated World Organic Apple and Pear Acreage - 2001
Certified Acres
Apple Pear
U.S. 17,572 2,798
Europe 8,675 3,665
New Zealand 2,873 163
South America 1,385 932
Canada 800 60
Total 31,005 7,618
China, Turkey ??
Apple Pear Cherry All fruit WA 6540 1308 303 8436 CA 4529 842 179 8662 AZ 2800 -- 30 2830 CO 1535 100 133 1923 ID 503 -- -- 506 OR 350 500 25 1180 Others 1015 48 57 1198
Total US 17,272 2798 727 23,835
U.S. Organic Tree Fruit Acreage - 2001
Cert. Trans. TotalApples 8075 1786 9861Pears 1771 192 1963Cherries 501 184 685
Apricots 90 12 102Peaches 195 4 199Nectarines 78 3 81Plums 46 3 49Other 17 2 19 Total 10,773 2,186 12,959
Organic Tree Fruit Acreage in WA - 2002
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
Are
a (a
c)
Certified Transition
Organic Apple Acreage in Washington State
Ala
r
Ph
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mo
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MD
Annual Changes in Organic Apple Acreage – Washington State
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Acr
es
Organic Orchard Acreage as a Percent of Total Washington Orchards
Apple Pear
1996 0.68 1.49
1997 0.96 1.68
1998 1.05 1.84
1999 1.36 1.87
2000 2.48 2.54
2001 3.90 5.27
2002 4.81 7.14
2002 (C+T) 5.87 7.92Based on 2001 USDA-National Agricultural Statistics for bearing acreage
WA Organic Apple Acreage by Variety 2002
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
Red Delicious
Granny Smith
Gala
Golden Delicious
Fuji
Other
Braeburn
Cameo
Pink Lady
Golden Types
Acres
Certified Transitional
WA Organic Red Delicious Acreage
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Certified Transitional
WA Organic Apple Prices($ per box FOB)
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
RedDelicious
GoldenDelicious
GrannySmith
Fuji Gala
$/bo
x FO
B
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
WA Organic Apple Prices($ per box FOB)
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
Braeburn Jonagold Red Rome Cameo Pink Lady
$/b
ox
FO
B
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Recent Organic Apple Prices – Washington($/box FOB)
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
RedDelicious
GoldenDelicious
GrannySmith
Fuji Gala
$/b
ox
FO
B
'01-'02 to Nov15,'01 to Nov15,'02 Nov 1-15, '02
Price Trends
Org
Conv
Red Delicious
Golden Delicious
Org
Conv
$0
$10
$20
$30
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
$/b
ox
FO
Borganic conventional
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
$/b
ox
FO
B
organic conventional
Conv
Org
Price Trends
Granny Smith
Braeburn
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Pri
ce $
/bo
x F
OB
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
$45.00
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000P
rice
$/b
ox
FO
B
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
$/b
ox
FO
B
organic conventional
$0$10$20$30$40$50
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
$/bo
x FO
B
organic conventional
Conv
Org
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
$/b
ox
FO
Borganic conventional
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
$/b
ox
FO
B
organic conventional
Org
Conv
Price Trends
Fuji
Gala
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
$/bo
x FO
B
organic conventional
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
$/bo
x FO
B
organic conventional
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
$/bo
x FO
B
organic conventional
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
$/bo
x FO
B
organic conventional
Org
Conv
Organic Pear and Stone Fruit Acreagein Washington State
0
500
1000
1500
2000
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Acr
es
Pear Stonefruit
Organic Pear Acreage in Washington State
0
500
1000
1500
2000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Acr
es
Certified Transitional
WA Organic Pear Acreage by Variety 2002
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Anjou
Bosc
Bartlett
Asian
Red Anjou
Red Bartlett
Concord
Other
Acres
Certified Transitional
WA Organic Pear Prices ($/box FOB)
$0
$20
$40
$60
Bartlett Red Bartlett D'Anjou Bosc
$/bo
x F
OB
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Price Trends$0
$10$20$30$40$50
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
$/bo
x F
OB
organic conventional
Bartlett
$0$10$20$30$40$50
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001$/
box
FO
B
organic conventional
D’Anjou
$0$10$20$30$40$50
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
$/b
ox
FO
B
organic conventional
$0$10$20$30$40$50
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
$/b
ox
FO
B
organic conventional
Org
Conv
Price Trends
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
$/b
ox
FO
B
organic conventional
Bosc$0
$10$20
$30$40$50
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
$/bo
x F
OB
organic conventional
Washington Organic Soft Fruit Acreage 2002
0 200 400 600 800
Apricot
Plums
Nectarines
Peach
Cherry
Pluot
Acres
Certified Transitional
WA Organic Cherry Acreage
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Acr
es
Certified Transitional
Challenges
• NOP implementation
• Lack of international harmonization – export barriers
• Retail pricing – U.S. vs. Switzerland
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Dollars
Organic Fuji
Grower Packer Trucker Retail profit
Grower Packer Trucker Retail profit
Fuji .225 .175 .11 .44
.45 .20 .15 .10 1.09
Broker
Estimated Food Sector Share of the Apple Price
Retail MarkupFuji 86%Org. Fuji 120%
Farm Share of Retail PriceFuji 23%Org. Fuji 23%
$1.99/lb
$0.95/lb
• Food quality differences – taste, storability, nutrition, nutraceuticals
• Combine “organic” with other ecolabels
• US Farm Bill – Conservation Security Program payments for stewardship
Opportunities for Organic Tree Fruit