Dipl.-Agr.Biol. Jutta Struwe

Prognos AG

Berlin, 16.11.2010

Bio-Waste Potential for Energy Production and GHG-Reduction in Germany and Europe

ISWA World Congress 2010

Introduction

Agenda

Potential Analysis of fermentable Bio- and Green-waste in Germany

Potential for Energy Production and GHG-Reduction

1

2

3

2© Prognos AG

GHG-Reduction

Opportunities on a Municipal Level and Importance for Europe

Conclusions

4

5

Unsere Gegenwart… / Our present…

Globaler Klimawandel - wesentlich schneller -

Global climate change - much faster -

Abfallaufkommen- Umweltbelastungen -

Waste volumes- strain on environment -

Ressourcenendlichkeit- Details unbekannt -

Resource scarcity- details unknown -

3© Prognos AG

Ressourcenverbrauch- weltweit steigend -

Resource consumption- growing worldwide -

Wertstoffmärkte- zunehmende Globalisierung -

Resource markets- increasing globalisation -

Globale Wirtschaftskrise- auf dem falschen Weg! -

Global economic crisis- on the wrong road! -

… und unsere Zukunft? / … and our future?

Mapping the future means…

1

2

34

.....to save scarce resources

.....to optimize climate protection through waste

management

4© Prognos AG

4

.....to minimize landfilling

.. ...to create an overall concept of waste-

management industry

Intr

od

uc

tio

n

Combined energy-material use of fermentable bio- and green-waste is subject to a variety of demands

Soil Protection via

Cross-Compliance

Energy Efficiency

EC-Waste Framework

Directive

5© Prognos AG

Extension of Renewable Energies

Limiting Total Primary

Energy Supply

Compliance

Active protection of climate and natural resources:

• Limiting greenhousegas emissions from direct landfilling

• Recycling management of plant nutrients and organic matter

Intr

od

uc

tio

n

Prior fermentation of organic waste from households in order to utilize its energetic potential supplements composting

1 Conservation of Resources

2 Potential of Biomass 3 Minimising of Risks

� Compost instead of mineral fertilizers and peat

� Biogas and heat instead of fossil fuels

� significant waste potential beyond today’s collected amounts

� Bio-waste is a reliable source: independent of influence of the weather and of world-wide wheat pricing

6© Prognos AG

Flexibility of Biogas5 Cost Efficiency6

Advantages of a combined energy-material use of fermentable bio- and green-waste

Renewable Energy Production

4

� Using bio-waste for biogas production is essential to reach the climate reduction targets

� Flexible use

� Storable, base load-able form of energy

� Able to use existing infrastructure

� Low cost compared to renewable raw materials

� Positive effects on regional economy

fuels

Intr

od

uc

tio

n

� ###1. Existing capacities for landfill or waste incineration and long-term contracts for those ways of disposal

Opportunities and conversion of combined energy-material use of fermentable bio- and green-waste differ vastly

� ###2. More attractive promotion for fermentation of renewable energy

����

����

7© Prognos AG

� ###2. More attractive promotion for fermentation of renewable energy

plants in Germany

4. Widespread lack of awareness especially on the level of municipalities about the energy and resource potential offered by the waste stream ‘bio-waste’

����

����

� ###3. Close cooperation of local waste management companies and

local energy providers necessary����

Intr

od

uc

tio

n

Introduction

Agenda

Potential Analysis of fermentable Bio- and Green-waste in Germany

Potential for Energy Production and GHG-Reduction

1

2

3

8© Prognos AG

GHG-Reduction

Opportunities on a Municipal Level and Importance for Europe

Conclusions

4

5

The regionally achievable potential of the fermentation of bio- and green-waste is shown for the first time by a Prognos analysis

General set up

� Bottom-up analysis of the amount of the regionally achievable potential of the fermentation of bio- and green-waste.

� The fermentation potential includes

� wet, loosely structured, organic waste from the bio bin, i.e. kitchen scraps and food waste,

9© Prognos AG

� green-waste from household gardening i.e. grass, and

� separate green-waste from municipal gardening.

� The potential amount is

� independent of current regional collection activities and

� a result of an obligatory and exhaustive separate collection.

� Household composting is only allowed for green-waste from shrub- or tree-cut.

� It takes into consideration the population density in core cities, densely populated environs, rural environs and rural areas.

Po

ten

tial A

naly

sis

The total potential of bio- and green-waste available for fermentation amounts to nationally almost 12 Mio. Mg

Bio- and green-waste average 142 kg per capita:

� 111 kg fermentable bio-waste from households

� 31 kg fermentable green-waste from households

Potential already

collected seperately

Additional amount of bio- and

10© Prognos AG

Po

ten

tial A

naly

sis

waste from households and municipal gardening.

Additional potential consists of consumer waste and bio-waste that is currently disposed in household composting.

Largest additional amount is found in municipalities without separate collection of bio-waste.

seperately 56%

bio- and green-waste

44%

© Prognos AG

The regional distribution of the specific situation in each of the 413 German municipalities shows differences on the regional level

Total Potential ~12 Mio. Mg Additional Potential 5.2 Mio. Mg

11© Prognos AG

Po

ten

tial A

naly

sis

2.3 Mio. Mg from core cities and densely populated environs

8.7 Mio. Mg from core cities and densely populated environs

Introduction

Agenda

Potential Analysis of fermentable Bio- and Green-waste in Germany

Potential for Energy Production and GHG-Reduction

1

2

3

12© Prognos AG

GHG-Reduction

Opportunities on a Municipal Level and Importance for Europe

Conclusions

4

5

The bio natural gas potential corresponds to 0.2% of the current primary energy consumption in Germany

En

erg

y P

rod

ucti

on

an

d G

HG

-Red

ucti

on

Results of the Potential Analysis of Fermentable Bio- and Green-Waste

Total Potential for Germany 11.7 Mg/a

Potential already collected seperately 6.5 Mg/a

Additional amount of bio- and green-waste 5.2 Mg/a

13© Prognos AG

En

erg

y P

rod

ucti

on

an

d G

HG

Additional amount of bio- and green-waste 5.2 Mg/a

Primary energy amount 7,000 GWh

Primary energy amount 25 PJ

© Prognos AG

Additional fermentation can decrease greenhouse gas emissions significantly

En

erg

y P

rod

ucti

on

an

d G

HG

-Red

ucti

on

Only composting of bio-and green-waste leads to climate burdens.

Additional fermentation of bio- and green-waste delivers a total CER of

Collection (transport)

Plant (treatment)

Compost spread out

Credit Burden

Composting(status quo)

14© Prognos AG

En

erg

y P

rod

ucti

on

an

d G

HG

delivers a total CER of ~ 2.5 Mio. Mg CO2

equivalents.

GHG-reduction through additional fermentation is a result of the generation of bio-gas.

Climate credit

-3,5 -3,0 -2,5 -2,0 -1,5 -1,0 -0,5 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5

m. t CO2-Äq./a

Compost spread out

Fertilizer credit

Energy credit

Organic credit

Balance

© Prognos AG

Optimisedfermentation

Introduction

Agenda

Potential Analysis of fermentable Bio- and Green-waste in Germany

Potential for Energy Production and GHG-Reduction

1

2

3

15© Prognos AG

GHG-Reduction

Opportunities on a Municipal Level and Importance for Europe

Conclusions

4

5

Opportunities and implementation options on an municipal level are manifold

Volume Security

� individual potential analysis for fermentable bio- and green-waste

� possible inclusion of other biogenic waste streams from wholesale, canteens or food industry or from cooperation with neighbouring regions

Guaranteed Sales

� analysis of the local heat demand and of options of gas injection

� quality assurance of digester compost and covering of sales

Op

po

rtu

nit

ies

an

d T

arg

ets

16© Prognos AG

Sales Potential

� quality assurance of digester compost and covering of sales markets

Appropriate Utilization Options

� review of inclusion into existing supply and disposal systems

� review of aspects of efficiency and risks

Op

po

rtu

nit

ies

an

d T

arg

ets

Implemen-tation

Concepts

� optimal collection of bio- and green-waste through appropriate collection systems

� incentive system to ensure quality and quantity

� cooperation with other municipalities, food-, hotel and restaurant industry

� European-wide between 40% and 100% of organic waste is still being landfilled

Fermentation of separately collected bio- and green-waste is very important to reach the European GHG-reduction targets

� Organic waste in landfills emits methane that – as a greenhouse gas – is 25 times more potent than CO2

Op

po

rtu

nit

ies

an

d T

arg

ets

����

����

17© Prognos AG

Op

po

rtu

nit

ies

an

d T

arg

ets

� The European Commission thus highly recommends that all Member States aim at „zero landfill“ of untreated bio-waste����

Fermentation of bio- and green-waste can contribute to the following targets

an

d T

arg

ets

Climate Protection

� 7% of the EU’s total target for renewable energies in 2020.

� Up to 42% of the bio-fuel target.

Protection � Contribution to formation of humus on agricultural land across

18© Prognos AG

Op

po

rtu

nit

ies

an

d T

arg

etsProtection

of Natural Resources

� Contribution to formation of humus on agricultural land across Europe.

� Saving of limited resources such as raw phosphate through the life cycle of plant nutrients in compost.

Introduction

Agenda

Potential Analysis of fermentable Bio- and Green-waste in Germany

Potential for Energy Production and GHG-Reduction

1

2

3

19© Prognos AG

GHG-Reduction

Opportunities on a Municipal Level and Importance for Europe

Conclusions

4

5

The future role of bio- and green-waste needs more attention

1

2

Bio-energy plays an significant role within the Renewable Energy Supply

Potential of biomass is limited, therefore we should not omit to use

20© Prognos AG

2

3

4

bio- and green-waste for production of bio-energy

Increasing shortage of natural resources leads to increasing costs of energy and mineral fertilizers

Combined material and energetic use of bio-waste still remains a niche segment in Europe

Co

nc

lus

ion

s

Conclusions

� Increasing attractiveness of dependable, alternative waste streams, such as separately collected bio-waste from residual waste secures significant contributions towards

Climate Protection and Resource Saving

21© Prognos AG

residual waste secures significant contributions towards bio-gas production across Europe in a lasting and long-term fashion.

� Municipalities will benefit from the regional economic effects of local production.

� Feasibility depends on local conditions as well as on people who are willing to start implementation.

We give orientation.

Jutta K. Struwe

Project Manager

Thank you for your attention!

22© Prognos AG

Project ManagerMarket Field „Waste and Secondary Resources“

jutta.struwe@prognos.com

Prognos AG Goethestr. 85D - 10623 Berlin Tel: +49 30 520059-206