Dr. Shahram Yazdani

Brain Drain

Shahid Beheshti University of Medical SciencesSchool of Medical Education

Strategic Policy Sessions: 12

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For every complex problem,

there’s a simple, obvious answer

that just happens to be wrong!H.L. Menken

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Between 150,000-180,000 Iranians try to immigrate by various means annually

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The latest figures released by the International Monetary Found (IMF) indicates that Iran ranks first in brain drain among 61 developing and less developed countries (LDC).

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Our part in others development !

1.434 million people (12%) out of the 12 million people who have science and engineering degrees in the U.S.A., are of foreign origin.

Over 72% of these were originally born in a developing country.

23% of those having a doctorate are not U.S.A. born citizens

This proportion in key areas such as engineering and computer sciences is 40%

The SESTAT database of the National Science Foundation (NSF) 2005

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Effect on mother land

For large countries like India and China, which dominate in terms of absolute numbers, skilled migration does not amount to a significant share of their educated workforces.

Indeed, only 1.1 and 1.4 percent of India and China’s skilled labour forces respectively had moved to the USA in 1990, although additional evidence – suggests that these migrants come from the top end of the skill distribution.

In Ghana, for example, over a quarter of the educated labour force lived in OECD countries in 1990, the share rises to over 60 percent for the Gambia and approaches 80 percent for Jamaica.

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Population,

millions

Migration

rate

Total expenditure on

tertiary education,

per student $

China 1238 1.4 1943

India 979 1.1 2014

Pakistan 131 2.4 448

Mexico 95 10.3 3459

Turkey 63 1.4 3365

Iran 62 14.7 398

Malaysia 22 4.4 4901

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Islamic Republic of Iran

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Who are the expatriates?

Of 125 Iranian high school students who have won awards at International Science Olympiads over the past three years, 90 of them are now at US universities (2001 figures)

More than 150,000 Iranian surgeons and engineers now live in the United States

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Demographical profile of the Iranian immigrant community in the United States

84% speak fluent English. 46% have a bachelors degree or higher 43% are in professional and managerial positions 35% in technical and administrative 48% are dual income earners 22% own their own businesses. Median family income is $55,501 (substantially

above the national average of $35,492) and per capita income is $18,040.

92% have a mortgage.

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Brain Flow

Susceptible GroupExpatriate Group Stable Group

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Brain FlowInternal Factors

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Disease vs. Symptom

Migration of educated people is not the ‘disease’

It is the

‘symptom’

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Comparative Study

Country Russia Iran China India UK Sweden

Population X Mio 142 72 1,313 1,081 60 9 GDP x Mio 1,287,000$ 133,2 6,449,000$ 3,033,000$ 1,666,000$ 238,300$ GDP/capita 8,230$ 1,850$ 4,580$ 2,670$ 26,150$ 26,050$ GDP growth rate 7.3% 9.1% 8.3% 2.2% 1.7%Inflation 13.7% 1.2% 3.8% 1.4% 1.9%R&D spending as a % of GDP 1.2% 0.3% 1.1% 0.8% 1.9% 4.6%

R&D spending x Mio 15,444 414 70,939 24,264 31,654 10,962R&D spending per capita 109$ 6$ 55$ 22$ 525$ 1,234$

Researchers per mio pop. 3,494 698 584 99 2,667 5,186

Researchers pop. 496,148 50,326 758,527 107,019 160,743 46,083Article output 2003 26,723 3,276 42,369 18,169 58,350 13,447Article output per 100 researchers 5.4 6.5 5.5 16.0 36.3 29.2

Internet users x Mio. 6.0 4.8 79.5 18.5 25.0 5.1Total journal market 11,326,176€ 20,000,000€ 120,250,180€ 54,614,500€ 116,870,622€ 26,633,304€

Total journal spend/researcher 23€ 397€ 159€ 510€ 727€ 578€

•UNESCO: http:www.uis.unesco.org/profiles/EN/GEN/countryProfile_en.aspx?code=3560•www.irandoc.ac.ir

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Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs

Physiological Needs.

Safety Needs

Love, Affection and Belongingness Needs

Esteem Needs

Self-actualization

Needs

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Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs

Physiological Needs.

Safety Needs

Love, Affection and Belongingness Needs

Esteem Needs

Self-actualization

Needs

50 meters of housing costs between 12,500,000 to more than 75,000,000 Toomans

Unemployment, officially at 13 percent, is closer to 20 percent, according to independent economists.

There is intense demand for university places.

The entrance exams are very competitive and

Less than 15% of the approximately 1.5 million

people who take the exams annually, actually

begin studies.

each year 270,000 university graduates enter

the job market, whereas only 75,000 can be

absorbed. Some 4,000 physicians, 14,000 midwives,

and 17,000 nurses are unemployed, and

hospitals are laying off personnel while

5,000 medical students graduate every year.

Marriage rate decreases and mean age of marriage increases significantly mainly due to financial problem

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Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs

Physiological Needs.

Safety Needs

Love, Affection and Belongingness Needs

Esteem Needs

Self-actualization

Needs

Perhaps more important, underemployment

is the norm. The average engineer makes $150 to $250 a month, slightly less than the monthly income of a taxi driver and 10 times less than what he might have made some 20 years ago. Independent economists estimate that Iran needsto create close to 1 million jobs a year to keep up with its youthful population.

In order for Iran to meet its high demand for jobs, up to $10 billion a year of productive investment will be required,"100,000-400,000 job per $1,000,000,000Over 70 percent of the industrial companies is state-owned and small industries make up 92.6 percent of the total industrial sectorOnly 1.4 percent of employment creators posses the necessary credentials to manage an industrial unit.

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Important variables for brain drain in Iran

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Brain FlowExternal Factors

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The United States

22% of the worlds R&D workforce, 40% of the worlds GERD (Gross

Expenditure in R&D) and mainstream science production

30-50% of the patents of technological innovation, in the world

O.S.T. 1996 p341, UNESCO 1998, pp23-25

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Intellectual DilutionNormal

Distribution ofIQ

Reproduction

Brain Drain

Iso-intellectualMarriage

GenerationalTransmission of

Intellectual Capacity

Skewness to Right

More Reproduction atLower IQ Range

More Brain Drainat upper IQ range

IQ

Frequenc

y

IQ

Inte

llectu

al

Ca

pa

city

IQ

Inte

llectu

al P

oo

l (%

)

Group IQ Prevalence

Mildly (or Basically) Gifted 115-129 1:6 - 1:40

Moderately Gifted 130-144 1:40 - 1:1000

Highly Gifted 145-159 1:1000 - 1:10,000

Exceptionally Gifted 160-179 1:10,000 - 1:1 million

Profoundly Gifted 180+ Fewer than 1:1 million

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Effect on unskilled employment

There is an optimal balance between the number of skilled labor workforce unskilled labor workforce

Brain Drain also leads to unskilled unemployment

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Brain Flow

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“Block” Option

Main Policy before 1980s was to Prevent or Regulate Brain DrainFailed to Bring Feasible or Effective

Solutions (Meyer et al. 1997).

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Compensate for:Higher Education CostsElementary and Middle Education CostsSocial Subsides

“Compensate” Option

$Cancel the Negative Effects

of Brain Drain through Taxation.

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“Compensate” Option

Theoretical Assumptions on which these Policies were Based are Wrong

They basically referred to human capital approaches where the skilled person is conceived as an individual capital asset, made of all his/her qualifications and professional experience resulting of prior investments (Gary

Becker). The human capital approach reflects but a small

part of the phenomenon.

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“Return” Option

The “More” Option:More MoneyMore RespectMore Opportunity

Unchanged Susceptible Pool

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“Return” Option

The Republic of Korea has focused on encouraging skilled emigrants to return, rather than invest at home.

Intensive recruiting programs search out older professionals and scholars and offer them salaries competitive with overseas incomes, better working conditions, and help with housing and children’s schooling.

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“Return” Option

Visiting professor programs allow the Republic of Korea to tap the expertise of those uncertain about returning home for good.

These initiatives, backed by the country’s improved economy, have produced strong results.

In the 1960’s, just 16 percent of Korean scientists and engineers with doctorates from the United States returned to Korea. In the 1980’s, that share jumped to about 70 percent.

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Intellectual Capital

Communicating And Supporting

Networks

Social and Scientific

Infrastructures

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“Scientific Diaspora” Option

Brain Gain Conceptthe expatriate skilled population may be considered as a potential asset

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The Scientific Diaspora Option

It takes for granted that many of the expatriates are not likely to return. They have often settled abroad and built their professional as well as their personal life there.

However, they may still be very concerned with the development of their country of origin, because of religious, cultural, family or other ties.

The objective, then, is to create the links through which they could effectively and productively be connected to its development, without any physical temporary or permanent return.

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The Scientific Diaspora Option

This type of distant cooperative work is now possible as cases of international research projects or multinational corporations’ (MNC).

Relationships between expatriate intellectuals and their mother country have often existed in the past.

What is new today, is that these sporadic, exceptional and limited links may now become systematic, dense and multiple.

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The Scientific Diaspora Option

Student/Scholarly Networks, Local Associations of Skilled Expatriates, Expert pool assistance through the

Transfer of Knowledge Through Expatriate Nationals (TOKTEN) program of the UNDP

Intellectual/Scientific Diaspora Networks. Developing Established and organized

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Networked Activities

Conferences Seminars Workshops Focus group discussions Social events such as dinners, new year Newsletter or news groups Joint developmental projects

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“Absorb-Prevent” Option

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“Absorb-Prevent” Option

Investment on: EducationR&DInfrastructures

Involve them in:Sustainable Development Process

Develop a Shared Vision

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“Absorb-Prevent” Option

This option has been successfully realized in various new industrialized countries (NICs) such as Singapore and the Republic of Korea or big developing countries such as India and China (Charum, Meyer, 1999).

Strong programs to repatriate many of their skilled nationals abroad have been put in place since 1980.

They have created at home the networks in which these returnees could effectively find a place and be operational.

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“Absorb-Prevent” Option

These countries are the ones that significantly invest in S&T material as well as human infrastructure.

They had started to build the research and technico-industrial web which could appropriately sustain such R&D activities employing S&E.

Obviously the success of that option depends very much on this specific capacity. Such a prerequisite is not easily matched by many developing countries.

Thank You !

Any Question ?