Conprehensive_Development_Strategy Kpk 2009 2015

8/3/2019 Conprehensive_Development_Strategy Kpk 2009 2015

1/79

GOVERNMENT OF NWFP

NORTH WEST FRONTIER PROVINCE

COMPREHENSIVE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

2009 - 2015

DRAFT FINAL REPORT

This is a draft final report and may be updated, replaced or obsolete by updated

version at any time. It is inappropriate to cite this document as other than "work in

progress".

2 April 2009


2/79

NWFP Comprehensive Development Strategy

2

NWFP COMPREHENSIVE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2009

Table of Contents

A Context and Framework ......................................................................................... 121. The Development Challenges for NWFP 122. Strategic Overview 153. Public Finance 174. The Approach Used in Developing the CDS 20

B Governance, Security and Institutional Development ........................................... 225. Governance 226. Security 25

C The Social Sector ................................................................................................... 287. Education 288. Health 32

9. Social Protection 3810. Local Development and Poverty Alleviation 41

D Infrastructure .......................................................................................................... 4411. Access and Roads 4412. Irrigation and Water Resource Management 4513. Energy and Power 4814. Water and Sanitation 5215. Housing and Public Building 54

E Economic Management ......................................................................................... 5616. Agriculture and Livestock 5617. Reconstruction Opportunity Zones 60

18. Minerals 6119. Facilitating Private Sector Development in NWFP 6420. Technical Education 66

F Urban Development And Transport....................................................................... 70

G Implementing the CDS .......................................................................................... 7221. Managing the Strategy 7222. Financing the Strategy 7323. Risk Management 7724. Monitoring and Evaluating Progress under the CDS 78


3/79


3

Abbreviations

ADB Asian Development BankANP Awami National PartyBISP Benazir Income Support ProgrammeDSP Decentralization Support ProgrammeESED Elementary and Secondary Education DepartmentFD Finance DepartmentGoNWFP Government of North West Frontier ProvinceGoP Government of PakistanHD Health DepartmentHIES Household Income and Expenditure SurveyIDP Internally Displaced PersonIFI International Finance InstitutionLGRDD Local Government and Rural Development DepartmentMDGs Millennium Development GoalsMTBF Medium Term Budget Framework

NEPRA National Electric Power Regulatory Authority

NRM Natural Resource Management NWFP North West Frontier ProvinceO&M Operation and MaintenanceOPM Oxford Policy ManagementPASDEC Pakistan Stone Development CompanyPBM Bait-ul-MalP&DD Planning and Development DepartmentPPHI Peoples Primary Healthcare InitiativePRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy PaperPSDP Public Sector Development ProgrammeRSP Rural Support ProgrammePSLM Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey

TEMPD Technical Education and Manpower Training DepartmentTEVT Technical Education and Vocational TrainingTMA Tehsil/Town Municipal AdministrationsWD Department of WorksWFP World Food Programme

Glossary

Abianadeeni madarisGadoon-AmazaiGuzaraHazara

KhushaliKohistanRahim Yar KhanSarhadTameer i SarahtehsilZakat


4/79


4

Map of NWFP


5/79


5

Executive Summary

North West Frontier Province stands at a critical point in history. Decades of steadydevelopment have been interrupted by a conflict that has spread across the border fromAfghanistan. The conflict is patchy but there are some areas of the province where livesare greatly disrupted and where it is difficult to maintain normal public services. ThisComprehensive Development Strategy describes a path that aims to benefit all the peopleof the Province by offering the possibility of better employment and access to improved

public services involving government, civil society and the private sector.

The progress that was being made in NWFP before the conflict demonstrates thepotential of the Province. Despite the disadvantages of isolation and the difficulties of providing basic services of education and health, NWFP grew faster than the rest ofPakistan. The province has strong agricultural skills, well adapted to the unspoilt naturalenvironment. Located at the crossroads of important international trading routes, the

people of NWFP have long traditions of trade and travel. Hydroelectric power andminerals offer resources for a modern economy.

Despite the proven potential for development in NWFP, the Province starts from a backward position arising from decades of incomplete involvement in nationaldevelopment. This affects levels of poverty and some social development indicators, asdescribed in the table below. There are large geographical variations in the nature andseverity of poverty and the large gender differences.

Table X1 Key Indicators for NWFP and Pakistan

NWFP Pakistan

Population (1998 census) 17.7m 132.4m

Population (March 2009 estimate) 22.2m 165.7m

Population under 15 47.2% 43.4%

GDP Growth Rate 4.6% 5.8%Population below poverty line 38.1% 34.0%

Literacy rate 47% 55%

Rate of attended births 51% 61%

Roads km / sq. kilometre 0.16 0.32

Households with tap water 47% 34%

Households with safe sanitation 60.8% 62.5%Sources: NWFP Development Statistics; NWFP White Paper 2008-09; DemographicHealth Survey

The Government of NWFP receives 83% of revenue from Federal sources. The timingand level of Federal transfers is difficult to predict, which undermines effective budgetingin the Province. As a result, Revised Estimates forexpenditure are produced each year,which involve substantial changes. In recent years, the revisions have had toaccommodate changing policy priorities associated with higher security spending and theneed to accelerate some high profile programmes that will build confidence in localcommunities.

In real terms, revenue and expenditure has increased by 7% per year over the last 10years. This has allowed government to improve services and to introduce a programme ofdecentralisation and other institutional reforms.


6/79


6

However, the increasing levels ofconflictin recent years have had major implications forgovernment finance. The Government estimates that damage to public property hasamounted to nearly Rs 5bn to date. Additional policing costs are about Rs 3.5bn. AboutRs 5bn of revenue has already been lost and a further Rs 5bn is expected to be lostthrough the remainder of the conflict and recovery.

The new provincial government is determined to address these challenges andopportunities and has produced the CDS with the participation of the provincialdepartments and with consultation and advice from key representatives of civil societyand the private sector. The CDS has the following priority policies.

Governance and Security. Several recent initiatives for improving governance werelaunchedin the province in the recent pass which will be particularly important throughthe short and medium term, when large increases in public expenditure are planned andthe absorptive capacity of government will be improved.

The maintenance of law and order has required the diversion of public funds to the

police services in recent years, and this will need to be maintained for the next two years.A programme of investment in new police post, lines, office and stations is needed torespond to the expansion in the number of districts and the new facilities will now need to

be designed and equipped to deal with the conflict.

Key measures in governance and security include:

deepening of the programme of Public Financial Management

construction of policy infrastructure in new Districts, improvement of policeinfrastructure in conflict areas, repair of damaged facilities and procurement ofequipment, vehicles and ammunition for the police

police training, capacity building and exposure to new subjects like counter

terrorism etcSocial Sectors.Education standards in NWFP have improved markedly in recent years,with literacy increasing from 37% in 1998 to 47% in 2006. However, literacy is still well

below the national average of 55%. Low literacy reflects the challenges of providing highquality schooling in the difficult terrain and complex social traditions of NWFP. TheGross Enrolment Rate in primary education in NWFP is currently about 82%, comparedwith 91% for Pakistan as a whole. Although this rate has improved dramatically from alevel of 70% in 1998, the rate of improvement has lagged behind that of Pakistan as awhole, especially in the last few years.

NWFP has an exceptionally young population and this will lead to a very rapid growth inthe demand for education in the next twenty years. The Government is planning to

address this with an ambitious programme to improve the number of teachers andclassrooms. Equally important, the education plan also stresses the need to switch from aknowledge education to a skills education and to be more flexible in cooperating withschools run by civil society and by the private sector.

The health status of NWFP is complex. Infant mortality indicators are significantly lowerfor NWFP than for Pakistan as a whole (at 6.3% and 7.8% respectively). This is despiterelatively low levels of attended birth for NWFP compared with the national average(51% compared with 61%). Immunisation rates in NWFP are below that of Punjab, but


7/79


7

significantly higher than in Sind or Baluchistan. The private sector currently provides between 70% and 80% of health services in NWFP, which is high by internationalstandards but low compared with other Provinces.

The NWFP strategy for health is based on a major improvement in access to healthservices, including: investment in health facilities; recruitment of new staff; supply ofequipment, supplies and drugs; and coordination with the private sector. This strategy

builds on the success of the Peoples Primary Healthcare Initiative. In addition, the healthstrategy includes initiatives to improve the efficiency of management, to allow healthservices to be more closely matched to demand and to improve regulation and qualityassurance. Improvement in emergency response is also stressed, given the nature of thesecurity situation.

The main programmes of social protection are defined at national level and the CDSincludes measures to ensure that these programmes are implemented more efficiently. Inaddition, a programme of labour intensive works is planned, which is designed to providesustained employment for young men and thereby help reduce anti-social behaviour.

There will be some expansion of spending on stipends and on investment in new shelters,centres and refuges for the most vulnerable. The strategy aims at stimulating the ....in themicrofinance and to make it as an effective tool for poverty reduction in the province.The CDS attaches a high priority to undertaking high visibility local developmentactivities to build confidence in communities. This programme will build on thesuccessful experience with Rural Support Programmes (RSPs) and) and otherorganizations engaged participatory development in the province. The spirit behind thisinitiative is the explicit acknowledgment that some of the organizations working with thelocal communities have required and developed some unique set of abilities andcapacities. These organization excel in the fixed of social mobilization and participatoryDevelopment. The cds aims at giving these organizations a role in local development and

poverty alleviation. The government of NWFP will partner with some organization which

is break from usual official business.

Key priority measures in the social sectors include:

increased expenditure on teachers salaries

free textbooks

training for teachers

construction and rehabilitation of schools

improving health facilities

increased health staff

health equipment, supplies and drugs

improvements in emergency response capability local development programmes, including welfare programmes, community

infrastructure, education, health and agriculture

Infrastructure. Over 90% of freight and 96% of passengers in NWFP travels by road.Demand for road transport has been expanding at a rate that is much faster thaneconomic development as a whole. The majority of the funding for roads has beendevoted to expanding the network and expenditure on road maintenance has been a smallfraction of what is required. As a result, 44% of Provincial roads and 78% of Districtroads are in poor or bad condition. The CDS continues with the programme of improving


8/79


8

and expanding the road network, but stresses that a much higher proportion of resourceswill be devoted to increasing recurrent spending on roads.

There are substantial opportunities for expanding the irrigated area in NWFP and theCDS will accelerate the current programme of investment in new irrigation infrastructure.However, current spending on maintenance of the irrigation system is about a quarter ofwhat is required and there is an even higher priority in maintaining and rehabilitatingexisting schemes to increase water efficiency, in view of the constraints on overall watersupply. Priority is also given to investment in water efficiency programmes, includingsmall scale schemes, water conservation and regulation of groundwater. Finally, in viewof the increasing variability of rainfall and reduction in natural mountain water storagethat is likely to arise from climate change, a significant sum is committed for flood

protection.

In energy and power, the Government of NWFP will seek to promote private investmentand to negotiate attractive terms with investors that will ensure improved electricitysupply and contribution to government revenue.

The majority of investment in water and sanitation is undertaken through urbandevelopment plans and local development in rural areas. The Department of LocalGovernment will provide the necessary policy environment to ensure that this investmentis effectively allocated and that incentives exist for efficient maintenance.

The lack of availability of housing in NWFP makes it difficult to retain governmentofficials in this post. Especially in the provincial metropolis and some of the far flungarea. The Government is therefore committed to a programme of rehabilitation andconstruction ofhousingfor officials. In addition, government is committed to obtainingland for housing for the poorest households in NWFP.

The priority measures for infrastructure are:

maintenance and rehabilitation of roads

investment and improvement in roads

maintenance and construction work on large dams and canals

government contributions to public-private partnerships on hydel

work on small dams

flood protection works

housingEconomic Management. About three quarters of the population in NWFP are at least

partly dependent on agriculture and this includes many of the poorest households. About

70% of the value of production is crops and 30% livestock products. The recent events inworld food markets have highlighted the importance of agricultural production in NWFP, both as a way of protecting the population from the impact of increasingly expensivefood imports and as an opportunity to make rapid improvements in profits. However,agricultural growth is constrained by fragile natural resources, fragmentation of landholdings, underfunded research and extension and limited availability of financialservices, all of which contribute to low levels of productivity. The Government will

provide assistance through improved access to inputs and technology and through a programme of investment in land levelling and development and investment in waterharvesting that is geared towards increased efficiency and productivity.


9/79


9

Major opportunities exist for the expansion of employment through business creation in

Reconstruction Opportunity Zones and in minerals development. Public investment ininfrastructure will allow these opportunities to expand efficiently. Some assistance withmarketing activities will also be provided and better coordination between provincial andnational level export and investment promotion will be achieved. The relative ease ofestablishing businesses in NWFP will be promoted and reforms will be introduced tosimplify the administrative procedures. The business environment in the province will bemade friendly and efforts shall be made provide the requirement infrastructurecommunity and industry in the provinceThe services in technical education are constrained by limited funding which means thatover 90% of expenditure is on salaries and there is limited scope for applied work. Manycourses are still run along traditional lines and the Government is committed toimproving the scope and content of technical education to match more closely the needsof employers in NWFP.

The priority measures in economic management do not involve the same costs as in other

sectors of government intervention, since the role of government is to facilitate privateinvestment. The main costs are:

land development and the promotion of water harvesting and soil conservation

upgrading existing and establishment new industrial zones to exploit theopportunities associated with ROZs

expansion, restructuring and rehabilitation of the technical education system

Urban Development. The Government have developed Urban Development Plansfor 22 urban areas in NWFP. These cover the main public services, including water,sanitation, drainage, streets and public infrastructure to accommodate privateservices in transport, agriculture and trade.

Implementation. The implementation of the CDS will be assured through the link withthe Medium Term Budgetary Framework, which will rely on the CDS for theidentification of major priorities. Implementation will be coordinated by a high levelcommittee supported by a special development unit in P&DD. This committee willmonitor the level of expenditure on the key priority measures and will ensure that theCDS priorities are reflected in the annual Budget Strategy Paper, at the start of the annual

budget cycle. Departments will produce progress reports as part of the budget process andwill report any problems encountered with their priority measures.

Cross-cutting Issues. The Government of NWFP recognises the importance of providingadditional weight to a number of cross-cutting issues. This will be achieved through theformation of

gender equality, including in education, health and employment

environmental sustainability, notably concerning water resources

community participation in government programmes

strengthening provincial and district capacity and promoting transparency

youth employment

Costing. Costing estimates have been made for the CDS and these distinguish between:the short term, over the next two years when reversing the course of the conflict is the


10/79


10

highest priority; the medium term, over the following three years, when the province will be in a phase of recovery; and a further period of two years. The costs have beenreviewed and adjusted by the Provincial Government departments in the province toreflect the balance of priority across sectors.

The estimates suggest that a total of Rs 145 bn will be required in the next two years,above the current levels of expenditure. Rs 34 bn will be provided by the real growth inrevenue and a further Rs 10bn from renegotiated hydel profits, leaving Rs 101 bn (US$1,258m) to be covered by expanded foreign grants and loans, above the current level. Inthe medium term, from year 3 to year 5, the total additional requirement is Rs 238 bn, ofwhich Rs 86 bn will be provided by increased domestic revenue, plus Rs 15bn fromincreased hydel profits, leaving Rs 137 bn (US$ 1,714m) to be covered by increaseddonor support. From year 6 to year 7, an additional Rs 159bn will be required, withRs 67bn (US$ 834m) required from development partners. This is summarised inTable X2.

Table X2 Funding for Full CDS Implementation (Rs bn)

Y1-Y2 Y3-Y5 Y6-Y7 TotalAdditional CDS Expenditure 158 255 170 583

Added Revenue from GDPgrowth 34 86 82 202

Added Revenue from hydel 10 15 10 35

Foreign Grants and Loans 114 154 78 346

in US$m 1422 1930 975 4328

Table X3 summarises the sectoral allocation of resources.Table X3 Sectoral Allocation of Resources (Rs m)Sector

Y1-Y2 Y3-Y5 Y6-Y7 Total

%

TotalGovernance 560 750 500 1,810 0.3%

Security 8,340 3,200 1,800 13,340 2.3%

Education 29,683 67,415 45,277 142,374 24.4%

Health 31,300 46,649 31,100 109,049 18.7%

Social Protection 6,240 9,179 6,119 21,538 3.7%

Local Development 21,727 47,745 31,830 101,302 17.4%

Access and Roads 18,200 26,345 17,396 61,941 10.6%

Irrigation 16,909 18,233 12,089 47,231 8.1%

Energy 2,404 6,338 4,226 12,968 2.2%

Water and Sanitation 2,136 3,360 2,218 7,714 1.3%

Housing 1,360 3,844 2,562 7,766 1.3%

Agriculture 9,707 8,230 5,487 23,424 4.0%

ROZs 1,963 3,425 2,283 7,671 1.3%

Minerals 1,000 1,425 950 3,375 0.6%

Privates sector Development 10 4 2 16 0.0%

Technical Education 900 2,460 1,640 5,000 0.9%

Urban Development 5,345 6,825 4,550 16,720 2.9%

Total 157,784 255,426 170,029 583,239 100.0%


11/79


11

Five sectors require 83% of total support. These are: education (25% of total), health(20%), local development (19%), roads (10%) and irrigation (9%).

Risks. Security provides both the primary objective of the CDS and the main source ofrisk. To address this risk, there is a high dependency on local implementation. There isalso a risk of limited implementation capacity. This risk is also addressed by using localmanagement capacity, following proven methods, such as those of the RSPs, and by

provided strong central coordination. NWFP is also vulnerable to rapid movements inworld food and fuel prices, which could adversely affect the provinces pooresthouseholds. This is addressed by giving a high priority to agricultural development.Improved agricultural productivity, along with investment in flood protection, will alsohelp increase the Provinces ability to adapt to climate change. The CDS will require amajor increase in donor funding, which will generate risks of duplication andinconsistency. This will be countered by the strengthening of public finance managementin general and of the Foreign Aid Wing of P&D in particular. Finally, the provisional

Government is aware of the risks that the recurrent costs implications of the CDS willplace pressure on the budget in future. The Government has calculated these costs and isconfident that the expanding revenue associated with economic growth will be sufficientto meet them.

Monitoring. The overall progress of the province will be monitored using 12 coreindicators, focusing on social welfare and economic capability. These indicators are

presented in Table X4 below.

Table X4 Monitoring Indicators

Indicator MDG Latest2010

Target

2015

Target

Poverty rate MDG 1 39% 30% 20%Roads in good condition MDG 1 24% 30% 45%

Area of land bought into cultivation (ha) MDG 1 0 20000 70000

Literacy rate MDG 2 47% 55% 75%

Primary net enrolment rate MDG 2 49% 60% 80%

Ratio of girls: boys in primary school MDG 3 0.52:1 0.70:1 1:1

Infant mortality MDG 4 6.3% 6.0% 5.5%

Proportion of fully immunised children MDG 4 47% 60% 75%

Maternal mortality rate per 100,000 MDG 5 275 250 200

Contraceptive prevalence rate MDG 5 31% 45% 70%

Access to drinking water MDG 7 71% 75% 85%

Access to sanitation MDG 7 66% 72% 85%

Aid as a % of GDP MDG 8 0.4% 5.0% 3.3%


12/79


12

A CONTEXT AND FRAMEWORK

The NWFP Comprehensive Development Strategy presents the Governments vision forthe future of the Province. It is comprehensive in its scope, covering all areas ofgovernment policy. It is comprehensive in its depth, moving from overarching strategy tothe priority policies and programmes that will implement this strategy. And it iscomprehensive in the sense that it is an important early step in improved public sector

planning that will link to new initiatives in transparency, budgeting and participation.

The CDS takes into account the short term (2009 and 2010), the mid term (2011 to 2015)and the long term (2016 to 2030). It defines clear and changing priorities for each ofthese periods and assesses the costs of the priority programmes involved. It matches theexpected costs with funding from domestic and from foreign sources. And, finally, itdefines 10 core indicators which will be used to assess the progress of the strategy.

1. The Development Challenges for NWFPInformation on the standard of living in NWFP are provided by the national HouseholdIncome and Expenditure Survey (HIES, 2001/02) and the Pakistan Social and LivingStandards Measurement Survey (PSLM 2005/06). The Pakistan Demographic and HealthSurvey (PDHS, 2006/07) provides additional information and a Multiple IndicatorCluster Survey (MICS) is currently being finalised.

Poverty. NWFP has a population of about 22.2m, growing at about 2.8%. The provincehas the highest incidence of poverty in Pakistan. According to the 2001/02 HIES, 39.2%of the population in NWFP was poor, compared with 34.0% for Pakistan as a whole.Rates of poverty in rural areas of NWFP were 41.1% compared with 28.1% for urbanareas of NWFP. The poverty rate amongst women is higher in NWFP than in other

provinces. Statistics on income distribution are unclear, with the HIES and PDHS surveyssuggesting that NWFP has a relatively equal distribution compared with other provinces,and the PSLM 2004/05 data suggesting the opposite. This reflects the complex forcesinfluencing the nature of poverty, associated with land ownership, economic trends,social conventions and natural resources.

Despite the challenges facing NWFP, the province has had some success in promotingeconomic development. Between 1998/99 and 2001/02, the level of poverty in NWFP didnot worsen significantly, at a time when national poverty levels were worsening. Thiswas achieved despite high population growth rates. The relative success of NWFP in

protecting itself from declining poverty appears to have been based on increased production of some agricultural crops, especially maize, and a marked increase in

remittances. The recent global economic recession will affect the level of remittancesreceived and place increased pressures on poverty.

Since 2001/02, poverty levels are likely to have worsened, through the combined impactof the 2005 earthquake and the increasing insecurity in parts of the province.

Behind the statistics of poverty are more complex dimensions of poverty involvinggender, health, education, income, environmental pressures, natural disasters anddestitution arising from violence.


13/79


13

Women are strongly disadvantaged in NWFP. Employment rates for women arelow and representation in government and senior decision-making positions is verylimited. Access to education and health care is low and rates of maternal health careare particularly low, leading to high maternal mortality. Most women are subject toeconomic dependence and are often forced to take on the majority of the manualwork of the household. There are serious concerns about violence against women.Despite the education of an increasing number of girls, the traditional roles ofwomen have changed little in the last decades.

The education status is described in chapter 7. According to household survey data,the incidence of poverty is significantly higher amongst households whose head hasno education.

The health status of NWFP is dealt with in chapter 8. The link between health andpoverty is complex and takes place mainly through the effects of poor nutrition thetendency of the poor in NWFP to make fewer visits to health services, poorcoverage and quality of public health services, cost of private health services.Affordability of a major segment of population.

The poor are particularly dependent on forest and water resources, both of which

are coming under increasing pressure. The increasing rate of forest depletion isalready reducing the access of the poor to firewood, both for household use and as asource of income. Declining rainfall and river flows are beginning to threaten

productivity on rain fed and irrigated land.

As with the other factors affecting poverty, the relationship between poverty andinsecurity is complex and works in both directions. High levels of poverty andunemployment, especially amongst young men, have a major effect on insecurityand this insecurity then affects the well-being and incomes of the wider population.

The 2005 earthquake in Hazara devastated the region, destroying homes and publicservice facilities and having a major impact on livelihoods, including crops,livestock and tourism.

Finally, the regional insecurity has led to large numbers of Afghan refugees livingin NWFP, many of whom are now involved in economic activities, such astransport, construction and hotels, thus reducing employment opportunities for thelocal population.

The poverty of women is particularly marked when including health and education status,as women have very low rates of use of health services and low school attendance rates,compared to men.

Table 1 Key Indicators

NWFP PakistanPopulation (1998 census) 17.7m 132.4m

Population (March 2009 estimate) 22.2m 165.7m

Population under 15 47.2% 43.4%

GDP Growth Rate 4.6% 5.8%

Population below poverty line 38.1% 34.0%

Literacy rate 47% 55%

Rate of attended births 51% 61%

Roads km / sq. kilometre 0.16 0.32


14/79


14

Households with tap water 47% 34%

Households with safe sanitation 60.8% 62.5%Sources: NWFP Development Statistics; NWFP FD White Paper 2008-09; DemographicHealth Survey

The NWFP faces a particular challenges arising from the fact that it has the most youthfulpopulation in Pakistan, with about 30% of the male population being between the ages of15 and 29. The large majority of this young male population has little formal employmentand only limited opportunities for informal income generation. The young male

population provides a major resource for economic growth, but also a serious risk tosecurity, if it is unable to find rewarding activities.

Box 1 The Shah family: a typical poor household in NWFP

The Shah family have 10 people. The head of the family is not working and has problems withaddiction to hashish. He has no regular source of income. He has two sons and six daughters,many of whom are involved in child labour and hardly meeting their daily nutrition needs. Theyare living in a mud house borrowed from a cousin without paying rent and cannot afford to use

the health or recreation facilities in the neighbourhood. The mother of the family gave birth to thefirst 6 children without a skilled attendant. However, after problems with the seventh child, aneighbour organised some visits from a midwife working with a health NGO. The two sonsattended primary school and have some basic literacy skills. They now work as casual manuallabour on occasional construction and farming jobs. The eldest three daughters did not go toschool. The family are frequently affected by health problems associated with malnutrition anddrug issues. One of their daughters has heard about the BISP, but they are unaware about how toapply and there are no contacts that can help in their village.

Security. NWFP has been severely affected by increasing insecurity in recent years. Thishas been triggered by insurgency originating in Afghanistan, but has exploited existingsectarian, tribal and factional tensions. The range of security threats is now complex andincludes bombings of officials and civilians, kidnapping and increased levels of generalcrime. The implications of this insecurity are widespread:

economic opportunity and employment is declining, with many businesses closingor moving out of the province

it is difficult to maintain basic public services in some areas

the costs of maintaining law and order are greatly increased

large groups of displaced people require basic support

regional trade has been disrupted, reducing employment and revenue

international funding for development has declined markedly

The situation is not uniform across the NWFP. As a result of the security situation,

development activity needs to work closely with local institutions, including governmentsat province and district level and local communities.

Economic Activity and Employment. Economic statistics are not yet collected separatelyfor NWFP. Economic growth was probably about 4.5% for most of the period from 1990to 2005, which means that per capita income has been increasing by about 1.5%. Thelarge majority of the population earn their livelihoods from farming or from retailingactivity (see Table 2), both of which are carried out on a small scales with low incomes.Remittances, both from Pakistan and from abroad, are important in NWFP, accountingfor about 18% of GDP.


15/79


15

Table 2 Composition of Employment in NWFP

Occupation %

Agriculture and fisheries 38.0

of which unpaid 17.6

Services, shops and market sales 32.0Professionals 3.5

Technicians and associate professionals 3.3Source: HIES 2001/02

Physical Environment. The NWFP enjoys very valuable natural resources, includinggood water flows, large forest areas and spectacular scenery. However, the rapidlyincreasing population places strong pressures on these natural resources and many areasnow experience water shortages and deforestation, with the associated problems of soilerosion and vulnerability to floods and other related natural disasters. There are nowsome areas of the province where natural resource pressures are threatening livelihoods ina dramatic fashion. There are some measures that can be taken to reduce environmental

pressures, notably involving more efficient use of water and alternative cooking fuels,and the province has some good experience with these measures. However, theexperience and resources available are insufficient to address the scale of the problems.

2. Strategic OverviewThe overarching strategy of the Government of NWFP fits clearly within the Vision 2030document prepared by the National Planning Commission in 2007. NWFP will play its

part in the emergence of Pakistan as a middle income country based on: skilled use oflimited natural resources; access to basic public services, including education, health,water and sanitation; and freedom of economic opportunity. NWFP will contribute to thenational goals of equity, gender mainstreaming and access to justice.

Box 2 National Strategies

The current Federal Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRSP II) is based on ten pillars: (i)macroeconomic stability and growth; (ii) protecting the poor and the vulnerable; (iii) increasing productivity in agriculture; (iv) integrated energy development; (v) making industryinternationally competitive; (vi) human development for the 21st century; (vii) removinginfrastructure bottlenecks through public private partnerships; (viii) capital and finance fordevelopment; (ix) housing and land management; and (x) governance for a just and fair system.In addition, PRSP II identifies three priority cross-cutting themes: strong monitoring andevaluation of policy; gender equality and environmental sustainability.

The Pakistan Planning Commission produce Pakistan in the 21st Century: Vision 2030 in 2007after two years of consultation. Economic growth is expected to be sustained at 7%-8% perannum, bringing Pakistan into the ranks of middle income countries by 2030 and leading to thecreation of a thriving middle class, through balanced and equitable growth. The Vision foreseesstrong growth of modern economic activity, with confident engagement in global markets.Natural resources will be managed carefully, to minimise wastage, and the country will preparefor the uncertainties of climate change. Breakthroughs are foreseen in the areas of education,employment and energy, with particular dynamism stemming from the growth of large cities. TheVision concludes by highlighting the role of todays young people, who will drive the countryforward over the next 25 years.


16/79


17/79


17

employment generation through opportunities for private sector development,including through the use of Reconstruction Opportunity Zones

technical support to the public sector to ensure that the rapid increase in activity canbe implemented without delays and mismanagement

The medium term priorities are:

consolidation of the progress made in the short term

expansion of public-private financing mechanisms, especially for minerals,hydroelectricity and tourism

training and skills development, especially for unemployed youths

teacher training and incentives to improve the quality of education

strengthening institutions of public sector management, including greater publicparticipation and greater collaboration with federal level institutions

3. Public FinanceManagement. Financial management is currently constrained by a number of challenges.Predicting revenue is difficult for the provincial government largely because of thevariability of Federal revenue. The Government of NWFP is improving its ability to

predict revenue, using a financial programming tool that links revenue to expectedeconomic growth. However, both at Federal and provincial level, elements of revenue areunpredictable, both where they are funded from international assistance and from ownrevenue.

Major revisions are made to the original budget. Figure 1 shows the original and revisedbudgets, along with actual expenditure. The figure demonstrates the difficulties that theprovincial government has in budgeting. For most departments, the direction of budgetrevision and actual overspend (or under spend) varies from one year to the next and isoften different between recurrent and development. In most cases, the main recurrent

budget is prepared in an incremental manner and the causes of budget revision areassociated with lumpy items that are added to the more routine element of the recurrent

budget In the capital budget, revisions are associated more with the need for policy priorities to adapt to the rapidly changing circumstances in the Province and to theunpredictability of Federal and donor funding for development programmes.


18/79


18

Figure 1 Original, Revised and Actual Expenditure (Rs m)

There is great variation between departments in their budget behaviour, as shown inTable 3. Over half the departments having a change of more than 10%. Revisions aremade both upwards and downwards. The net effect of the revisions has varied in recentyears. The revisions in the development budget are larger and less systematic than in therecurrent budget.

Table 3 Overspend compared to original budget by department (Rs m)

Recurrent Development

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08

Police 270 254 1,684Agriculture -61 -6 -69 17 2,471 1,195

Social Welfare 58 45 -58 -17 -12 -5

Health -289 -200 -213 -1,034 -1,516 -444

Education 2,026 -869 -195 -2,140 -2,347 862

Roads -17 276 -181 438 233 -7

Sanitation 18 13 -30 -37 361 232

Irrigation -1,633 -531 -302 153 953 1,372

Urban and rural -1 98 -9 -497 85 190

Industry 8 1 170 -143 -149 -140

District non salary -116 76 279

District salary -348 375

District programme -274 15 -79Special programme 406 -2,231 -6,105

Public buildings 9 73 132 2,712 7,041 -972

Other 325 907 -56 -463 -230 -310

Total 597 -210 1,526 -879 4,675 -4,211Note: excluding finance, excise, grants in lieu of O&Z tax, subsidies, pensionsSource: NWFP Finance Department

Fiscal Balance. The fiscal accounts show a high variation in fiscal balance which reflectsthe availability of net financing. In 2005/06, substantial non-project borrowing was

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08

Recurrent Development

Original

Revised

Actual


19/79


19

available, in the form of a WB DPL, which allowed expenditure to be significantly higherthat would otherwise have been possible. By contrast, in the following two years asurplus was generated, allowing some repayment of debt.

Table 4 Provincial Fiscal Balance

05/06 06/07 07/08Revenue 60,426 80,062 91,818

Current Expenditure 45,642 46,325 55,758

Development Expenditure 21,788 29,246 31,956

Balance -7,005 4,491 4,104Source: NWFP Finance Department

Provincial revenue in recent years has varied between about 8.2% and 9.7% of provincialGDP. There is some suggestion of an increasing trend, but substantial variation aroundthis trend. About 83% of revenue comes from the Federal government, with 52% fromthe divisible pool of taxes and 16% from grants in aid. Net profit from hydroelectric

power, which is collected at a Federal level, provides 6% of revenue. Receipts collected

by the NWFP provide about 8% of total revenue and foreign governments provide thebalance of about 5%. Over the past 3 years total receipts have risen roughly in line withGDP, although some important elements, such as hydel profits, have not increased in linewith GDP.

Table 5 Revenue (Rs bn)

05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09

Actual Actual Actual Budget

Provincial Receipts 5,189 5,733 6,981 8,212

Share of Federal Divisible Pool 33,818 42,412 51,804 67,016

Transfers on Oil and Gas 1,307 2,226 4,152 4,429

Grant in Aid 0 9,766 11,799 14,432

Net Profit from Hydel 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000Foreign Grants 879 886 646 780

Federal Grant for PSDP 3,530 7,419 5,755 8,215

Foreign Loans 9,703 5,621 4,681 4,183

Total 60,426 80,062 91,818 113,267Source: NWFP Finance Department

Current expenditure is dominated by the social sector, which accounts for about 60%.The largest share of development expenditure is allocated to infrastructure, with nearly40%.

Table 6 NWFP Government Expenditure (Rs m)

Current Development

05/06 06/07 07/08 07/08Actual Budget

Security 4,616 5,857 8,229 0 0.0%

Social Sector 18,861 24,654 31,196 5,293 13.4%

Social Protection 540 628 2,103 1,040 2.6%

Education 15,270 21,750 25,883 2,403 6.1%

Health 3,051 2,276 3,210 1,849 4.7%

Infrastructure 1,699 1,886 2,061 15,178 38.5%

Roads 787 510 542 6,565 16.6%

Water 831 1,114 1,180 4,776 12.1%


20/79


20

Urban 81 263 338 3,836 9.7%

Economy 1,254 1,075 1,292 4,832 12.2%

Agriculture and NRM 1,189 984 1,044 2,836 7.2%

Industry and Mines 65 91 248 1,996 5.1%

Other Items 19,212 12,852 12,980 14,159 35.9%

GRAND TOTAL 45,642 46,325 55,758 39,462 100.0%

Source: NWFP Finance Department and ADP

The Fiscal Costs of Insecurity. The effect of insecurity in the region on governmentfinances is felt both directly and indirectly through the wider impact on the society andon the economy. This has been estimated in a recent report by the Government of NWFPon the Costs of the Conflict. The following table summarises the impact.

Table 7 The Direct and Indirect Impact of Insecurity on Government Finances (Rs bn)

Cost

(Rs bn)Period

Additional Direct Costs

Displaced people and refugees 0.1 to date

Additional policing costs 4.9 4 years conflict

Replacement of damaged/destroyed publicproperty

13.0 to date

Compensation to families for death, injury,damage1

0.3 to date

Lost Revenue

Lost provincial receipts from lost GDP 2.1 12 year conflict/recovery

Lost provincial receipts from reduced collectionrate

5.6 4 years conflict

Federal receipts2 2.2 12 year conflict/recovery

Total Direct Costs and Lost Revenue 28.2

Donor support reduced by implementation delays 54.0 last 3 years conflictConflict resolution/recovery focus of the CDS 60.0 next 7 years of the CDS

Total Fiscal Impact 142.21 These costs are met largely by Federal Government2 The proportional affect on Federal receipts is the same for all ProvincesSource: Government of NWFP Cost of Conflict Report April 2009

4. The Approach Used in Developing the CDSThe CDS has been produced by the Government of NWFP to present the priorities of theANP government and how these will be implemented. The CDS process has been guided

by a Policy Reform Management Group, chaired by the Additional Chief Sectaryrepresentation from the largest Departments. The preparation of the CDS has beenmanaged by office of the chief economist, planning and development Department ofPlanning and Development (P&DD).

Whilst the CDS presents the priorities of the ANP government, it has made use of theavailable existing strategies in each sector. Sector chapters have been largely prepared bythe relevant departments and discussed with P&DD. Where possible, bilateral discussionshave been held with civil society and the private sector.


21/79


21

Costing estimates have been made for the CDS and these distinguish between: the shortterm, over the next two years when reversing the course of the conflict is the highest

priority; the medium term, over the following three years, when the province will be in aphase of recovery; and a further period of two years. The costs have been reviewed andadjusted by the central Government departments in NWFP to reflect the balance of

priority across sectors.

There has been some consultation on the CDS, including discussions with key privateindividuals and representatives of the private sector and civil society. However, thisconsultation has, to date, been informal and a formal process of consultation outsidegovernment will take place in the next few months.


22/79


22

B GOVERNANCE, SECURITY AND INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT5. GovernanceThe Government of NWFP operates a system ofCabinet Governmentthat provides themechanisms for ensuring that overall policy is translated into action and that resourcesare adjusted to reflect that policy. The Government is committed to improving this

process and has introduced various initiatives to achieve this.

The budget cycle starts in August, with the preparation of departmental budget proposals,based on previous years allocations. The first budget circular is sent out to Departmentsin December and includes indicative ceilings. Submissions are made by February, withcurrent budget submissions going to Finance Department and Development Budgetsubmissions going to Planning and Development Department. Negotiations over the

budget then last until May, when the budget documents are prepared for consideration bythe Assembly. The White Paper includes introductory sections describing the broadtrends in the budget and explaining the reasons for sectoral shifts in spending. Budget

Books provide details of the sectoral budgets, whilst ADP provides details of the AnnualDevelopment Programme. The budget is presented in the Provincial Assembly in Juneand approved before the 1st of July.

Recent PEFA analysis suggests that budget discipline in NWFP still faces manychallenges. In particular, the variation between actual expenditure and original andrevised budgets is large, by international standards. Variations are not dominated by any

particular pattern and may be positive or negative in different departments in differentyears, suggesting that there is no obvious dominant factor that is hampering budgetdiscipline. Improvement in budgeting is one of the four core areas of the ongoingProvincial Reform Programme (PRP) in NWFP.

New practices are being developed to improve revenue projections. These should allowfor greater accuracy of revenue, which will help budget discipline. Over 80% of NWFPrevenue comes from Federal government transfers. The Provincial Government isimproving its capacity to predict Federal GDP growth which will help with projections ofrevenue from Federal sources. However, policy decisions regarding the rates applied todifferent source of Federal revenue are outside the control of the Provincial Governmentand projections of revenue from Federal transfers will remain unpredictable for thisreason. Although the provinces own receipts are low (roughly 9% of total receipts), duenet hydel profit has been unpaid in recent years, whilst the salaries and pensions budget isincreasing.

The Government has been piloting the introduction ofperformance budgetingpractices

that define explicitly the outputs that are expected to be produced from services. Thepilots have involved detailed definition of output indicators and beneficiaries have beeninvolved in assessing the indicators and discussing the conclusions and lessons learntfrom the performance. Pilots have so far been run in education, health and agriculturewith good success. However, the practical experience with performance budgeting has

been problematic and it has not yet had a strong influence on decision-making.

The Government is also introducing a new programme of top down performance budgeting that will involve defining the core programmes of each department and the


23/79


23

indicators that will be used to monitoring the progress of the programmes. This processwill start with a Twin Track activity that examines past expenditure patterns and theyrelate to policies and programmes.

The Government is determined to make the budget process one that allows policy to betranslated efficiently and effectively into changes in resource allocation and changes inservice delivery on the ground. Ultimately, this will be achieved through a rigorousMedium Term Budgeting Framework (MTBF). The current MTBF provides projectionson current revenue and spending patterns. As the new MTBF practices are introduced,government departments will associate resources more closely with programmes and

policies so that the MTBF will reflect the changing policy environment. In the short term,aBudget Strategy Paperwill be produced by November each year which will provide thestrategic guidance to the budget process.

A Provincial Financial Accountability Assessment (PFAA) was made fro NWFP in 2003and identified a number of issues. In particular, there is insufficient information aboutfinances through the year to allow the executive to manage the budget effectively. The

impact of this is felt particularly on development projects, which have lumpy access tofunding through the year which compounds the existing problems associated withfrequent changes in specifications and a shortcoming in monitoring. The NWFP has aPublic Finance Reform Programme, benefiting from support from a Project to ImproveFinancial Reporting and Auditing (PIFRA), with funding from the World Bank. This hasincluded a programme to introduce an integrated government financial managementsystem, including the computerisation of District Accounting Offices. The PIFRA hasalso supported the piloting of a New Accounting Model in NWFP which provides a newchart of accounts.

There has been progress in public procurement reforms, under a World Bank TA onPublic Procurement Regulatory Framework, and a new Procurement Law and associated

rules are under preparation. However, further work is needed to implement the regulatoryframework and this is guided by phase 3 of the Procurement Reform Action Plan. ThePRP is also supporting improved ability to forecast pension liabilities.

Improvements are also being made in human resource management(HRM), with newHRM guidelines being developed with support from the PRP. The database is beingstrengthened and a programme being developed to improve job descriptions and tomanage careers in a more structured way.

At present, the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) takes more than 3 years to preparetheir reports on public accounts. The Government is committed to speeding up the

preparation of PAC reports and to strengthening the quality of the reports.

The increasing clarity of definition of policies and programmes, combined with analysisof past performance will build the evidence and capacity to undertake more rigorousevidence-based policy evaluation for new policy options. The Government willundertake some pilot policy evaluations in 2009 and will extend this practice over 2010and 2011. by which time standard practices will have been developed and all major

policy initiatives will require Policy Impact Analysis before political decisions arefinalised.


24/79


24

Decentralisation. Pakistan introduced a major policy of decentralisation in 2001. Theprovince has 24 Districts, 22 urban areas, 826 Rural Union Councils and 7373 villages.NWFP has responded by passing responsibilities for key local services to districts andtehsils. There are, however, constraints in the capability of districts to take over all theresponsibilities envisaged in the decentralisation, both with routine expendituremanagement and with expenditure reconciliation and internal audit. The decentralisation

process has been supported by the Essential Institutional Reforms OperationalisationProgramme (EIROP), which has organised training, workshops, studies and support forinformation systems in local government. It is also being support by the DecentralizationSupport Programme (DSP), which is being implemented with the partial funding fromADB, to carry forward reforms in the areas of decentralization, fiscal restructuring andlocal governance. It is an innovative, demand-driven and output oriented program,serving a range of clients at all level of governments. DSP's objective is improved localgovernment representation; accountability and efficiency, resulting in improved servicedelivery.

The Government already maintains websites for all the main departments and many key

public documents are available on-line. The Government intends to expand the capacityofe-Governmentto include greater access to public services and provision of monitoringindicators to promote a culture of customer service provision.

Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) in the NWFP Government is currently undertaken inan ad-hoc manner by different departments, with a strong emphasis on project M&E. TheGovernment is implementing a plan for the improvement and coordination of monitoringinformation systems, with support from the PRP. This will involve establishing astandard information system in at least 5 departments and at least 50% of districts by2011. It will also include better coordination with the Bureau of Statistics to ensure thatdata is collected and reported in an efficient manner. This may include an ability to

produce estimates of Provincial GDP at the same time as the estimates of national GDP.

The Government is introducing new guidelines for human resources management,which will cover recruitment, assessment, promotion, a human resources informationsystem and training and needs assessment. New job descriptions are being prepared andwill be piloted in at least two departments in 2009, leading to full updating of jobdescriptions in all departments by 2011. The Government is also building greatercapacity to forecast pension liabilities.

Foreign assistance to NWFP is monitored by the Foreign Aid Wing of P&DD. TheGovernment is committed to substantial strengthening of the Foreign Aid wing to makesure that donors are provided with clear directions and that there is a central source ofinformation on donor activity to reduce the risks of duplication and inconsistency. The

Foreign Aid wing will cooperate with the national aid coordination services and,especially, with DADPAK and will establish a provincial Development AssistanceDatabase (DAD).

Policy on justice is determined at Federal level. There is currently a major initiative toimprove access to justice involving the following priorities. Major improvements have

been made in the last five years in the number of cases processes by the courts and inreducing the number of cases pending. In many parts of NWFP, there are now no casesthat are pending for more than one year. A system of Member Inspection Teams now


25/79


25

monitors all courts in NWFP and a reward system has been introduced. A complaintsprocedure has been introduced, with a system for responding to complaints. There is nowa Justice Development Fund which provides independent funding to the judiciary.

Goals. The NWFP Government aims to improve the management of public services sothat public policy is translated efficiently into action and so that the public can follow the

performance of government services.

Priorities. The NWFP Reform Programme includes the following features.

Resource Management

more reliable, timely and accurate information on financial flows through the year

improvements in internal control and audit leading to more reliable financialstatements

improved financial management institutions, including a Provincial FinancialController, the Public Accounts Committee and publication of NWFP AnnualReports

improved external audit improvements in public procurement with wider knowledge of procurement rules

and regulations

improved monitoring and evaluation, extending from project-based activities tocover all government services

Access to Justice

providing a legal basis for judicial, policy and administrative reforms

improving the efficiency, timeliness and effectiveness of judicial services

improving equity of access to judicial services for the most vulnerable

ensuring transparency and accountability of the judiciary and justice institutions

Table 8 Priority Measures in Governance (Rs m)Measures Y1-

Y2

Y3-

Y5

Y6-

Y7

Total Notes

Support to the Foreign Aid Wing ofDPD

60 90 60 210 technical assistance

Transparency programmes 100 120 80 300 technical assistance

Capacity building for CDSimplementation

200 240 160 600 TA and training

Support to PRP 200 300 200 700

Total 560 750 500 1,810

6. SecurityThe recent wave of militancy and terrorism has spilled over rapidly to the settled districtsof NWFP from FATA, threatening entire social fabric. The current volatile law & ordersituation has badly effected economic development and deteriorated all social sectors inthe effected districts. Economic development and peace are closely interlinked. Theimprovement in the fighting capability of police will help to suppress the militants whichwould lead to peace and economic development.


26/79


26

The current insecurity situation comes before the police have been fully able to respondto the increase in the number of districts from 12 to 24, so that some district police forcesdo not yet have sufficient infrastructure and equipment to fulfil their duties. There are 11districts that do not have basic infrastructure, such as police posts, offices and lines. As

part of these reforms, the number of police stations was doubled and 80 police stationsare now located temporarily in police posts, in other government building, such as healthunits and schools or in rented buildings. Most of these buildings are poorly located andwithout the facilities required in police stations. Furthermore, the rehabilitation of policeinfrastructure following the 2005 earthquake is not complete and current plans do notcover the entire police infrastructure that has been delayed.

Law enforcement personnel are particularly threatened by the militancy, as they are seenas legitimate targets by the militants. The Frontier police force has not been designed toresist the current pressures and the insurgency has seriously exposed the constraints ofthe Frontier Police in terms of their inability to effectively fight the militants. A lack ofsophisticated weapons, equipments and transport are particularly limiting. In addition,

police stations and other infrastructure requires substantial upgrading with boundary

walls, watch towers, bunkers etc and associated equipment such as radio jammers.

A further implication of the insecurity implication is that police efforts are diverted awayfrom fighting crime. As a result, there has been an alarming increase in serious crime, tomenacing proportions. The police have been pursuing an active policy of community

policing and there is growing use of the practice and awareness of its role incommunities. The initiative is currently focused on the creation of Lashkars, or groups oflocal people who work with the police service to promote law and order in their area.

Police Activity in NWFP is governed by a Police Order passed in 2002 which broughtmany important changes in the police. Public participation is now achieved throughPublic Safety and Police Complaint Commissions, operating at the district, provincial and

national levels. In addition, there is a Citizen Police Liaison Committee. The ProvincialPolice Organisation has 7 Directorates, including: Operations; Prevention; Investigation;Capital Police; Intelligence; Log/Training; and Traffic.

The police have an active programme of developing e-policing to improve theiraccessibility to the public. This will gradually incorporate the 25 registers maintained ineach police station and will also extend to the Prosecution Branch, the Criminal RecordsOffice, the Police Record and Office MIS, and the Automated Fingerprint IdentificationSystem.

Goals. The strategic goals of the Government security strategy are to ensure law andorder in all areas of NWFP and to eradicate terrorism from the province within two years.

Priorities. The Government has already taken action to recruit . new police officers.The priorities are now to make sure that these officers have the proper infrastructure,facilities and equipment to fight terrorism and crime and to ensure their own safety.

the police require radical improvements in weapons, security and communicationsequipment and in ammunition and armoured transport equipment

upgrading police infrastructure and associated equipment, including police lines, police stations, police posts, patrolling posts, offices etc, plus associated


27/79


27

ammunition, protective equipment, transport, communication and forensicequipment

Table 9 Priority Measures in Security (Rs m)

Measures Y1-Y2

Y3-Y5

Y6-Y7

Total Notes

Procurement of Arms &Ammunition, Security Equipment,Transport and Wireless Equipmentfor NWFP Police

2,000 600 400 3,000 Arms & Ammunition,Security Equipment,Transport and WirelessEquipment

Police infrastructure and equipment 3,340 600 400 4,340 Rehabilitation of police posts and associatedequipment for the posts

Raising of Elite Force 3,000 2,000 1,000 6,000

Total 8,340 3,200 1,800 13,340


28/79


28

C THE SOCIAL SECTOR

7. EducationGovernments strategy in Education is defined in the Education Sector Plan, which was

prepared in June 2008. Some further work has been done in recent months to estimate thecosts of implementing the plan.

Literacy levels in NWFP are amongst the lowest in Pakistan and this presents a majorchallenge to government. The province has 64% men and 30% women literacy .and theliteracy rates vary considerably across the province. Despite the challenges facing theeducation sector, most statistics show that the literacy rate has been steadily improving.

Participation in primary education is low by international and national standards, with agross enrolment rate (GER) of 83%, compared with a national average of 87% (see Table10). The GER for girls is significantly lower than boys, at 70%. About 79% of primary

school children attend public schools, 19% attend private schools and 2% attend deenimadaris (although these official figures may underestimate attendance at private schools).The relative importance of public and private schools varies greatly within the province.Drop out and repeated grades are common, with only about 60% of children finishing

primary school. This reflects partly the difficulties in maintaining high quality teaching,with limited teacher training, a high rate of teacher absenteeism and poor facilities andmaterials. The current teacher student ratio in primary schools is about 1:40. In someareas, formal primary education is not supported by local communities and religiousleaders, whilst in other areas there is strong interest and support.

Table 10 Enrolment and Literacy Rates for NWFP and Pakistan

PIHS 1998-99 PIHS 2001-02 PSLM 2005-06 PSLM 2006-07

T M F T M F T M F T M FGross Enrolment Rate (Class 1-5, age 5-9)Pakistan 71 80 61 72 83 61 87 94 80 91 99 81 NWFP 70 84 54 77 97 56 83 93 70 82 96 67

Net Enrolment Rate (Class 1-5, age 5-9)Pakistan 42 47 37 42 46 38 53 56 48 56 60 51 NWFP 39 47 30 41 48 33 49 51 42 49 56 41

Literacy Rate (aged 10 +)Pakistan 45 59 31 45 58 32 54 65 42 55 67 42 NWFP 37 56 20 38 57 20 46 64 30 47 67 28Source: NWFP ESED

The problems of middle, secondary and higher schools are similar to those of primaryschool. GER for ages 10 to 14 is low at 35% (and only 23% for girls) and private schoolscater for over 20% of children. For higher schools (ages 15-16) the GER is less than 5%,with only 30,000 pupils, although many children move directly to post secondarycolleges at aged 15.

Attendance in pre-primary classes is relatively high, with a gross enrolment ratio of about80%.


29/79


29

There are currently 26,498 public schools in NWFP and 60,507 classrooms. Class size isaround 40 for most schools, but there are over 200 schools with only 1 classroom thathave average sizes of 70 to 100 pupils. In rural areas, there are many children that have totravel for more than 1 hour to school. In many of these areas, public transport is non-existent and, when options do exist, they are sometimes not secure. These problems are

particularly severe for girls, because of the smaller number of girls schools, and forsecondary education.

Expanding the number of schools to fill major gaps in coverage is one element ofgovernment action and has been a strong focus of investment in recent decades.However, the emphasis on new building has led to a neglect of the maintenance ofexisting buildings and of the management of schools that do exist. The Government iscurrently incorporating information on the condition of school infrastructure into theEducation Management Information System and is using remote sensing evidence to help

build objectivity into the data and reduce political interference in the prioritisation ofmaintenance work. The reconstruction of schools, colleges and DESE buildings after the2005 earthquake has started and a rolling programme has been defined.

Teacher quality is constrained by limited and poor teacher training programmes and byexcessive political interference in postings and transfers. Most teachers have been trainedin a system that stresses the dissemination of information, rather that the development ofskills. There are problems with encouraging qualified teachers to accept appointments inunattractive areas and in ensuring attendance in these areas. Some districts have 20% to30% of teaching posts unfilled, which often reflects the state of security in the district.

Private schools are an important source of education, but they are expensive and there ispoor coordination with public schools. Private schools are limited mainly to urban andsemi-urban areas and there are few private schools in unattractive areas. The Governmenthas initiated some schemes to improve coordination, including allowing private schools

to use public buildings and allowing the private sector to publish textbooks. The FrontierEducation Foundation and Elementary Education Foundation were established primarilyto promote education in the private sector, although these foundations have diversifiedtheir activities.

The interest of communities in supporting education is patchy. The Government isattempting to increase the role of Parent Teacher Councils, with funding and training, as away of improving ownership and mobilising community support. There are cases wherecommunities have contributed land, buildings, teachers salaries and materials andsupplies (eg the Aga Khan Education Service in Chitral and the Society for Advancementof Higher Education schools).

Budget constraints limit the physical facilities in schools and the supply of materials andtextbooks.

Supervision is poorly funded and has insufficient capacity to provide the frequency ofinspections required. Some training is being provided in management systems, but thereis a need for more training of inspectors and for developing systems to improveefficiency and to make the most of the inspection visits that can be made. There are plansto reintroduce the cluster training mechanisms that brought teachers, managers andinspectors in an area together for joint training on a regular basis.


30/79


30

The Government aims to improve the management of education through acomprehensive Capacity Development Plan that is currently being prepared. This willfocus on the management in DESE and will address all levels of education. It will includea clarification of roles, training needs and delivery plans. It will also cover the expansionof monitoring and evaluation activities.

The National Education Foundation and Elementary Education Foundation are nationallevel initiatives to improve literacy. Nationally, about 772,000 people have received non-formal literacy training in the last 3 years, of which 72% are women. Literacy centresnow exist in 20 NWFP districts.

Public Expenditure. Education received nearly 50% of total current spending in NWFPand 14% of development spending, as shown in Table 11. About 90% of current spendingis in the form of transfers to districts for the payment of teachers salaries and theoperations and maintenance of schools. Through the last 15 years, there has been a steadyincrease in the expenditure share of the current budget and an increase in the share of

primary in total current expenditure. The development budget includes over 100 projects,of which the largest are for the provision of textbooks (Rs 700m), stipends for girlsstudents (660m), construction and reconstruction of classrooms (2315m), establishmentof colleges (620m) and capacity building for teachers (214m).

Table 11 NWFP Expenditure on Education

Rs m as % total NWFP

06/07 07/08 08/09 06/07 07/08 08/09

Actual Budget Actual Budget

Current 23,975 29,213 32,399 51.8% 52.4% 48.1%

Development 1,325 3,265 5,892 5.6% 9.3% 14.2%

Objectives. The Governments education strategy is defined in full in the EducationSector Plan 2006/07 to 2014/15 (ESP) prepared in June 2008 by the Elementary &Secondary Education Department (ESED). The vision of the ESP is to: ensure qualityeducation, enabling all citizens to reach their maximum potential; to produce responsible,enlightened and skilled citizens; and to integrate Pakistan into the global framework ofhuman centred economic development

The strategy reflects the mission in the national Education Sector Reforms of:developing human resources in Pakistan as a pre-requisite for global peace, progress and

prosperity. It also sets objectives that are consistent with the Millennium DevelopmentGoals.

The ESP sets three top priority objectives: universal primary education; gender equalityat all education levels; and improved educational attainment by strengthened teaching-learning quality. There are also three additional objectives: increased participation atmiddle and secondary grades; increased adult literacy; and access for all to earlychildhood education at age 4.

Priorities. To achieve these objectives, the Education Sector Plan Improved education is aGovernment priority in both the short and long mid term. Particular priority is given inthe short term to policies that help to build community confidence.


31/79


31

Short Term

Bigger roles for communities in management, rehabilitation and motivation,including expanded financial and technical support for Parent Teacher Councils.

Ensure sufficient teachers available, with better coordination between provincial

and district levels and use of local contracts, community monitoring of attendanceand incentives for difficult areas, especially for female teachers. Improvedtemporary accommodation in isolated areas, especially for female teachers.

Locate new schools only where there are major gaps, especially for girls. Prioritisereconstruction on objective criteria. Utilise low cost local building materials where

possible. Involve Parent Teacher Councils in management and funding.

Introduce second shifts where possible.

Greater collaboration with and regulation of the private sector, building especiallyon the roles of the various Education Foundations active in NWFP.

Mid Term

Build enrolment is all sectors, including public, private, community, NGO &mosque schools. Provide government support to NGOs schools. Identify certain

areas within districts education cities where private schools would berequested to take the lead, to minimise duplication with the public sector. Initiateinnovative programme for areas without schools (eg mobile schools).

Improve teaching quality through the NWFP Institutional Framework for TeacherDevelopment (IFTD) programme to: develop new teaching curricula to move fromknowledge based to skill based learning; improve teacher training institutes andcoordination of training; set up teacher support programmes, including Local CircleOffices for cluster training; setting up Katchi education in all public primaryschools; piloting on-site teacher development; special support for school heads; andimproving class room assessment. Make teacher training available to teachers in

private schools.

Review of supervision of the schools system, including introducing a centralisedexam system and improving the monitoring of exam standards.

Strengthen the utilisation of the management information system to provide clearerinformation on the performance of schools and involve Parent Teacher Councils inthe review of performance information.

Review free textbook programme to improve availability of books. Continue toimprove the quality of textbooks to reflect improvements in the teaching curricula.Organise workshops for private publishers of school books.

Expand the girls stipend scheme and voucher and scholarship schemes.

Give communities more involvement in non-formal education and adult literacy.

Improve Early Childhood Education through improved training and materials andprovision of a pool of ECE experts to support teachers.

Table 12 Priority Measures in Education (Rs m)

Measures Y1-

Y2

Y3-

Y5

Y6-

Y7

Total Notes

Incremental teacher salaries 2,944 16,298 10,866 30,108 all items taken from costingwork done by E&SE on the basis of simulated modelfor projections of demandfor education


32/79


32

Provision of free textbooks 2,785 5,784 3,856 12,425 all items taken from costingwork done by E&SE on the basis of simulated modelfor projections of demandfor education

Rent to communities or schools 113 454 303 870 all items taken from costing

work done by E&SE on the basis of simulated modelfor projections of demandfor education

In-service training for teachers 1,272 2,371 1,580 5,223 all items taken from costingwork done by E&SE on the basis of simulated modelfor projections of demandfor education

O&M budget through District Non-Salary

171 946 631 1,748 all items taken from costingwork done by E&SE on the basis of simulated modelfor projections of demandfor education

Girls stipend for secondary education 299 1,847 1,231 3,377 all items taken from costingwork done by E&SE on the basis of simulated modelfor projections of demandfor education

School construction and furnishing 10,839 24,963 16,642 52,445 all items taken from costingwork done by E&SE on the basis of simulated modelfor projections of demandfor education

Rehabilitation of schools, with

community contributions

9,230 13,718 9,146 32,094 all items taken from costing

work done by E&SE on the basis of simulated modelfor projections of demandfor education

Expand adult literacy activities 10 9 6 25 25% increase in 08/09budget

Grants to NGO schools 20 24 16 60 ???

College Sector Development 2,000 1,000 1,000 4,000

Total 29,68367,415 45,277 142,374

8. HealthCurrent Situation. The health situation in NWFP is mixed, but marked improvementshave been made in recent years. Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) and Total Fertility Rate(TFR) have been declining steadily. IMR and U5MR for NWFP in 2006 / 07 are 63 and75 per 1000 live births as compared to national average of 78 and 94 per 1000 live birthsrespectively. The first ever estimation of Maternal Mortality Rate for NWFP is 275deaths per 100,000 births as compared to national average of 276. TFR declined at aslower pace than nationally from 5.1 in 2000 to 4.3 in 2006/07. Antenatal coverage in

NWFP as per the demographic health survey is 51% which is well below national


33/79


33

average of 61%. The deliveries by skilled birth attendance are 38% which is also belowthe national average. Despite recent improvements in outcomes, there is space for a lotmore to be done. With judicious use of available resources and provision of adequate percapita funding, the health indicators can be improved remarkably.

The situation becomes more challenging and complex because of the existing law andorder situation. The Health Department (HD) on one hand has to respond to anymanmade or natural disaster and on other hand has a major challenge of keeping routineservices in the affected districts in place. The situation is further aggravated by theinternally displaced population in which the HD has to focus on routine services as wellas on prevention of epidemics.

Table 13 Health Status (in %)

Measures Y1-

Y2

Y3-

Y5

Y6-

Y7

Total Notes

Standardization / Up-gradation ofhealth facilities

8,138 12,207 8,138 28,483

Recruitment of staff for servicedelivery (both out reach and static)

6,000 9,000 6,000 21,000

Special repairs of health facilities 3,000 4,200 2,800 10,000

Adequate provision of supplies anddrugs.

4,286 6,429 4,286 15,000

Better accessibility to EssentialMinimum Health Services Packagethrough Private sector.

0 0 0 0

Governance, Stewardship andManagement

543 814 543 1,900 all levels

Availability of skilled humanresource for service delivery

314 471 314 1,100 all levels

To initiate the culture of informeddecision making

357 536 357 1,250 mobility, materials andexpenses for consultationand meetings

Regulation / Quality Assurance 861 1,292 862 3,016 infrastructure and services

Emergency response 7,800 11,700 7,800 27,300 technical assistance andequipment

Achievement of MDGs 0 0 0 0 double the level in the08/09 ADP

Total 31,30046,649 31,100 109,049

Source: Pakistan Social Living Standards Measurement Survey

In the Pakistan constitution, health is a provincial matter and the Federal level isconcerned mainly with establishing standards and building capacity at provincial levels.In practice, the Federal level has initiated and funded a number of vertical health

programmes that are funded by the Federal level and implemented by the provinciallevel. The devolution process should strengthen the role of districts in providing healthservices. However, the capacity to design, deliver and supervise health programmes indistricts in limited and hampers the ability to put the devolution programme into place.There are particular problems in finding female health workers, especially in rural areas.


34/79


34

The most effective primary health care is now provided by vertical programmes fundedfrom Federal level. Due to the constraints on primary health care delivery in rural areas,the demands on secondary health institutions in urban areas are high. However, lack offunds and skilled people means that facilities and standards are difficult to maintain.

There are 5 tertiary hospitals in NWFP and all but one of the 24 districts in NWFP have adistrict hospital. There are 132 Rural Health Centre (RHC), covering most of the tehsilsin NWFP. RHCs also have the capacity to provide limited inpatient services, with up to10 beds. The tehsils are further divided into areas of approximately 10,000 people and theHD aims to provide a Basic Health Unit (BHU) in each of these at present, there arenearly 1500 BHUs.

The private sector provides between 70% and 80% of all healthcare services in NWFP.Although this is high by international standards, it is lower than other areas of Pakistan,

perhaps because private health operators find it difficult to operate profitably in thehighly dispersed rural areas. As a result, those private facilities that do operate in ruralareas are often of very low quality and the population in rural NWFP is more dependent

on public health services than in other areas of the country. There are several differentmodels of public-private partnerships operating in NWFP, but these have yet to beevaluated to provide a coherent and consistent model for the province.

A survey of the quality of health care was completed in 2007, which included assessmentby trained assessors and patient satisfaction surveys. The assessors gave primary healthfacilities an average score of 1.8 on a scale of 1 to 4 and secondary health facilities ascore of 1.3. Performance was poorer in management than in health delivery. Key

problems included: hygiene, staff availability, access, referrals, complaint management,treatment guidelines and the availability of information to patients. The only aspects thatwere considered good, on average, were: patient registers, staff attitude, medicationinformation, vaccine cold chain and sharps disposal. Patients gave primary health care a

higher score than assessors, with 2.8 on a scale of 1 to 4. Many aspects were consideredgood and patients main concerns were with equipment, toilets, complaints, affordabilityand information material. Responses on secondary care followed similar patterns to thoseon primary care.

Existing Activities. The provincial Government is hampered in its health planningactivities by a lack of information about health service activities and about the impactthese have on the health status of the population.

The Health Department (HD) has initiated a series of reforms over the last 10 years. In1998, an initiative was launched, with assistance from ADB that included focus onimproving the quality of health care. This included measures to improve quality

management, including the establishment of the Health Regulatory Authority in 2002 andthe definition of health standards in 2006. Renewed momentum in health reform was

provided by a 10 year programme of reform starting in 2006, with assistance from GTZ.The objectives of this reform programme are to strengthen the management of healthservices in districts as well as to reform health financing.


35/79


35

Table 14 NWFP Expenditure on Health

Rs m as % total NWFP

Health 06/07 07/08 08/09 06/07 07/08 08/09

Actual Budget Actual Budget

Current 2,276 3,210 2,711 4.9% 5.8% 4.0%

Development 656 1,870 2,203 2.8% 6.9% 5.3%

In addition, in 2005, the Fede

Date post:	06-Apr-2018
Category:	Documents
Upload:	javedbuneri5276
View:	218 times
Download:	0 times

Conprehensive_Development_Strategy Kpk 2009 2015

Documents