Emission Projections of GHGs and Air Pollutants in ASEAN: Toward the Global 2 ℃ Target

HANAOKA Tatsuya

Center for Social and Environmental SystemsNational Institute for Environmental Studies

0

International Regional Science Meeting “Land Cover/Land Use Changes and Impacts on Environment in South/Southeast Asia”

Johor Bahru, Malaysia2019 July 22-31

1

Greenhouse Gases,Short-Lived Climate Pollutants(SLCPs)

Air Pollutants

What are the situation in ASEANamong ASIA and the world?

Short-Lived Climate Pollutant Precursor of tropospheric O3

Global Anthropogenic Historical Emissions

2

CHN IND ASEAN Other Asia OECDLatin America Middle East & Afriga Economies in Transition Intl Aviation&Navigaiton

Source) made by author from EDGER 4.3.2

0

10

20

30

40

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

CO2 emission[Gt CO2]

020406080

100120140

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

SO2 emission[Mt SO2]

020406080

100120140

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

NOx emission[Mt NOx]

0100200300400500600700

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

CO emission[Mt CO]

0

100

200

300

400

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

CH4 emission[Mt CH4]

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

BC emission[Mt BC]

0

10

20

30

40

50

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

PM2.5 emission[Gt PM2.5]

0

50

100

150

200

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

NMVOC emission[Mt NMVOC]

SLCPs and air pollutants emissions from South-east and South Asia has been on the increase

Sectoral Anthropogenic Emissions in 2010 : Asia, ASEAN, OECD

3

Asia ASEAN OECD

20%

2%

24%

0%

40%

0%8%3%0%0%3%0%

2.4MtBCBC

11%1%

19%

0%

23%1%

33%

8%1%0%3%0%

0.4MtBC

2% 10%

17%

0%

42%

0%

14%

2%0%0%13% 0%

0.4MtBC

0%24%

0%0%6%

18%0%0%0%

51%

1%0%

142.3MtCH4

CH4

0%

28%

0%0%2%

28%0%0%0%

42%

0%0%

60.2MtCH4

0%25%

0%0%4%

17%0%0%0%

52%

2%0%

30.0MtCH4

CO248%

1%

34%

0%7%

0%8%1%0%1%0%0%

13.0GtCO2

39%

1%28%

1%7%0%

21%1%1%1%0%0%

1.2GtCO2

43%

0%15%1%

14%

0%

25%

0%2%0%0%0%

11.3GtCO2

Source) made by author from EDGER 4.3.2

Power

Mining

Industry

Solvent

Residential & Commercial

Waste

Transport：Road

Transport: Navigation

Transport: Aviation

Agriculture

Agricultural waste burning

Emission features between ASIA & OECD are different. (i.e. major emissions sources are different) Characteristics of ASEAN are in between ASIA and OECD.

Sectoral Anthropogenic Emissions in 2010 : Asia, ASEAN, OECD

4

Asia ASEAN OECD

NOx

CO

NMVOC

41%

0%22%

0%5%0%

21%

4%0%4%3%0%

43.3MtNOx

24%

0%

22%

0%5%0%

27%

4%0%4%

14% 0%

5.5MtNOx

27%

0%

13%0%7%0%

41%

4%3%4%1%0%

25.8MtNOx

1%5%

18%

0%

38%0%

23%

0%0%0%15% 0%

266.2MtCO

1%6%4%0%

22%

0%

33%

0%0%0%

34%

0%

70.3MtCO

3%1%7%0%

15%

0%

62%

4%0%0%8%0%

78.3MtCO

1%23%

12%

23%

23%

1%

13%0%0%0%4%0%

58.5MtVOC

0%

39%

5%13%

17%

1%

16%

0%0%0%9%0%

15.3MtVOC

1% 14%

14%

36%

6%5%

20%

2%0%0%2%0%

25.4MtVOC

Source) made by author from EDGER 4.3.2

Power

Mining

Industry

Solvent

Residential & Commercial

Waste

Transport：Road

Transport: Navigation

Transport: Aviation

Agriculture

Agricultural waste burning

To reduce tropospheric O3, combinations of mitigation measures are necessary but complicated Reduction measures on transport sector is primary important, next building sector, and next ???

Socio-economic: historical trend and future projections in Asia

5

0

20

40

60

80

100

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

GDP

per

cap

ita

(100

0 U

S$20

05/p

erso

n)Japan

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

GDP

(Tril

lion

US$

2005

) Japan

0

5

10

15

20

25

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

GDP

(Tril

lion

US$

2005

) India

05

10152025303540

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

GDP

(Tril

lion

US$

2005

) China

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

Popu

latio

n (m

illio

n)

Japan600800

1000120014001600180020002200

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060Po

pula

tion

(mill

ion)

India900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

Popu

latio

n (m

illio

n)

China

Historical SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5

0

4

8

12

16

1990 2010 2030 2050

GDP

per

cap

ita

(100

0 U

S$20

05/p

erso

n) ASEAN

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

GDP

(Tril

lion

US$

2005

) ASEAN

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

Popu

latio

n (m

illio

n)

ASEAN

POP

GDP

GDP/POP

Characteristics of socio-economic dynamics are different depending on countries & scenariosSouth-east and South Asia has been rapidly increasing, following the past China.

05

10152025303540

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

GDP

per

cap

ita

(100

0 U

S$20

05/p

erso

n) China

0

4

8

12

16

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

GDP

per

cap

ita

(100

0 U

S$20

05/p

erso

n) India

6

Greenhouse Gases,Short-Lived Climate Pollutants(SLCPs)

Air Pollutants

How much we need to reduce?What are Science-Policy agenda?

Meaning of Stay Below 2 ℃IPCC AR5 WG3(2014) Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways

7

Without more mitigation, global mean surface temperature might increase by 3.7 – 4.8℃ by 2100. To stay below 2℃, the range of GHG emissions are roughly between 30-50 Gt CO2eq in 2030. To stay below 2℃, 41–72% reductions by 2050 compared to the 2010 level are required.

Different colors show different categories which achieve the same CO2-eq concentration at the point in 2100

Corresponding to 2 ℃

41%～72%reduction

Relative to 2010 Reaching to ZERO emission in the end of the century

20502010

Source) IPCC AR5 WG3 (2014), Figure SPM.4

Comparison of NDCs and Paris Agreement Climate Proposals

8

Even if the NDCs collectively lower GHGs emissions compared to where current policies stand, but still imply a median warming of 2.6–3.1 ℃ by 2100

Emission gaps between the INDCs and 2℃ median pathway are 14 Gt CO2eq by the unconditional INDCs, 11 Gt CO2eq by the conditional INDCs, in 2030

Source) Rogelj, J. et al (2016) Nature

In 2030Around 11-14 GtCO2eq emission GAP

Submitted (Intended) Nationally Determined

Contributions by UNFCCC nations are not enough for

achieving the 2℃ target

note） CO2emission in Asia in 2010 = around 10GtCO2

CO2emission in OECD in 2010 = around12GtCO2

For achieving 2 degree target, it is important to accelerate Low Carbon measures and SLCP measures

9

Q1：How can we fill the Gap between NDCs and 2 degree target in Asia and ASEAN?

Q2: What kinds of advantage and disadvantage, from the view points of air pollutants and SLCPs reduction, when considering deep decarbonization?

Research Questions

AIM/Enduse[Global] – Major characteristics

10

◆ Bottom-up type model with detailed technology selection framework with optimizing the total system cost, assessing technological transition

◆ Recursive dynamic model (=Calculating year by year)◆ Analyzing effects of policies such as carbon/energy tax, subsidy, regulation and so on.

World 32 regions

12 Asian regions

CO2 CH4 N2O SO2 NOx BC OC PM10 PM2.5 CO NMVOC NH3 HFCs PFCs SF6 CFCs HCFCsEnergy supply ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

Fuel mining ✔ ✔

Industry ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

Transport ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

Building ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

Waste ✔ ✔ ✔

Agriculture ✔ ✔ ✔

Others ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔

✔ shows most major emitting sector✔ shows 2nd major emitting sectors✔ shows relatively emitting sectors✔ shows minor sectors

Note2) Within the same gas-type, Note1) ✔ shows the coverage of target gases in the model

Overview of Bottom-up type methodology : AIM/Endues model

11

This analysis consists of three parts;1) setting future socio-economic growths, 2) estimating future service demands of each demand sector by using service demand models, 3) analyzing combinations of mitigation options by using a technology bottom-up model

Socio-economic settings (POP,

GDP etc)

Estimation of service demands in each sectors

Selections of mitigation technologies in each

sectors

Energy consumptionNon-energy consumption

Emissions0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050GH

G e

mis

sion

s in

Asia

(Gt C

O2e

q)

Overview of mitigation measures

12

Four major groups of 200 – 300 mitigation measures on GHG and air pollutants

① End-of-pipe mitigation measures desulfurization equipment [=SO2 reduction], denitrification equipment [=NOx reduciton], dust-collecting equipment [=BC, PM reduction], fertilization management in agriculture [=N2O reduciton], manure management [=CH4, N2O reduction], waste management [=CH4 reduction]

② Improvement of quality of fuels shifting from high sulfur-content fuel to low-sulfur content fuel [=SO2 reduction]

③ Improvement of energy efficiency high-energy efficient technologies and reduction of energy [=CO2・APs・ BC reduction], Low-carbon power supply and electrification in demand side [=CO2・APs・ BC reduction]

④ Drastic energy shifting shifting from coal to renewables or natural gas [=CO2・APs・ BC reduction], diffusion of hydrogen-fuel from renewables [=CO2・APs・ BC reduction]

Effective for reducing (a) specific gas(es)

Effective for reducing a specific gas

Effective for reducing multiple gases

Effective for reducing multiple gases

Around 200 - 300 mitigation measures are set in the AIM/Enduse model. Mitigation measures are selected depending on policy push and regulation, carbon pricing, subsidy.

Baseline Anthropogenic Emissions Scenario in ASEAN

13

0

1

2

3

1990 2010 2030 2050

CO2

Emis

sion

(GtC

O2)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990 2010 2030 2050

CH4

Emis

sion

(MtC

H 4)

01234567

1990 2010 2030 2050SO

2Em

issi

on (M

tSO

2)

0

2

4

6

8

10

1990 2010 2030 2050

NO

x Em

issi

on (M

tNO

x)

0

1

2

3

4

5

1990 2010 2030 2050

PM2.

5Em

issi

on (M

tPM

2.5)

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

1990 2010 2030 2050

BC E

mis

sion

(MtB

C)

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 2010 2030 2050

CO E

mis

sion

(MtC

O)

02468

1012141618

1990 2010 2030 2050

VOC

Emis

sion

(MtV

OC)

0

5

10

15

1990 2010 2030 2050

PM10

Emis

sion

(MtP

M10

)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1990 2010 2030 2050

OC

Emis

sion

(MtO

C)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

1990 2010 2030 2050

NH 3

Emis

sion

(MtN

H 3)

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1990 2010 2030 2050

N2O

Em

issi

on (M

tN2O

)

EDGER4.3 REAS 2D scenarioReference

1) Uncertainty of PM emissions is large, 2) emissions related to non-energy are necessary to be calibrated

2 ℃Mitigation Scenario in ASEAN

14

0

1

2

3

1990 2010 2030 2050

CO2

Emis

sion

(GtC

O2)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990 2010 2030 2050

CH4

Emis

sion

(MtC

H 4)

01234567

1990 2010 2030 2050SO

2Em

issi

on (M

tSO

2)

0

2

4

6

8

10

1990 2010 2030 2050

NO

x Em

issi

on (M

tNO

x)

0

1

2

3

4

5

1990 2010 2030 2050

PM2.

5Em

issi

on (M

tPM

2.5)

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

1990 2010 2030 2050

BC E

mis

sion

(MtB

C)

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 2010 2030 2050

CO E

mis

sion

(MtC

O)

02468

1012141618

1990 2010 2030 2050

VOC

Emis

sion

(MtV

OC)

0

5

10

15

1990 2010 2030 2050

PM10

Emis

sion

(MtP

M10

)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1990 2010 2030 2050

OC

Emis

sion

(MtO

C)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

1990 2010 2030 2050

NH 3

Emis

sion

(MtN

H 3)

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

1990 2010 2030 2050

N2O

Em

issi

on (M

tN2O

)

Deep decarbonization measures have multiple effect for reducing large amount of air pollutants & SLCPs

EDGER4.3 REAS 2D scenarioReference

2 ℃Mitigation Scenario in ASEAN

15

Major mitigation sectors are different by gas, i.e. combination of multi-sector measures are important. Caveats are that 1) emissions from natural sources are out of scope, 2) technology database in this

model does not consider some innovative technologies and non-energy related technologies due to the lack of information about cost, efficiency, etc.

Power & Mining Industry

Transport：road Transport：Ship & Air

Residential & Commercial Waste

Agriculture

0

1

2

3

1990 2010 2030 2050

CO2

Emis

sion

(MtC

O2)

01234567

1990 2010 2030 2050SO

2Em

issi

on (M

tSO

2)

0

2

4

6

8

10

1990 2010 2030 2050

NO

x Em

issi

on (M

tNO

x)

0

20

40

60

80

100

1990 2010 2030 2050

CO E

mis

sion

(MtC

O)

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

1990 2010 2030 2050

BC E

mis

sion

(MtB

C)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

PM2.

5Em

issi

on (M

tPM

2.5)

02468

1012141618

1990 2010 2030 2050

VOC

Emis

sion

(MtV

OC)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1990 2010 2030 2050

CH4

Emis

sion

(MtC

H 4)

EDGER4.3 REAS 2D scenarioReference

Asia-Pacific Integrated Modelhttp://www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/index.html

ご清聴ありがとうございましたThank you for your attention

This research was supported by the previous Environmental Research and Technology Development Fund (S-12) and the current Environmental Research and Technology Development Fund (2-1908), of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency, Japan.

Acknowledgment