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Assessment of GHGs and SLCPs emissions projections in Asia based on SSP scenarios
by using AIM/Enduse[Global]
Tatsuya Hanaoka
Center for Social and Environmental SystemsNational Institute for Environmental Studies
0
The 21th AIM International WorkshopOhyama Memorial Hall, NIES
13-14 January 2015
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AIM models for GHG mitigation analyses
Global scale
National scaleEconomicModel(Dynamic OptimizationType)
Bottom-upModel(Dynamic Optimization Type)
Variable
Global emission pathways to climate stabilization
AIM/CGE[Global]
Technological efficiency, mitigation potentials & costs
Model
AIM/CGE[National]
Technological efficiency, mitigation potentials & costs
Activities & Service demands (Industrial productions,Transport volumes, Population dynamics, Waste generations, etc)
Technological efficiency, mitigation potentials & costs
Database
Province/City scale
AIM/CGE[Subnational]
AIM/Energy Snapshot [Subnational]
AIM/Extended Snapshot [Subnational]
AccountingModel(Static Balanced Type)
Technological efficiency, mitigation potentials & costs
Technological efficiency, mitigation potentials & costs
Macro-economic driving forces
Macro-economic driving forces
Element & Transition Models
Temperature change
Agriculture
Human Health
Water
AIM/Energy Snapshot [National]
AIM/Extended Snapshot [National]
Emission Models
Macro-economic driving forces
Steel Production
& Trade
Cement Production
Household account & Lifestyle
Transport Demand
Population & Household Dynamics
Input-Output Municipal Solid Waste
Agriculture Production &
Trade
Macro Economic
FrameMaterial
Stock & Flow
etc.
AIM/Enduse[Global]AIM/Enduse[National]AIM/Enduse[Subnational]
Impact & Adaptation Models
Simple Climate
Nuclear Hydro Geo-thermal
Solar Wind Biomass
GasCoal Oil
Energy Resource DB
Impact Response function
AIM/Impact[Policy]
etc.
3E(Energy-Environment-Economic) Database
etc.
Energy priceEmission
factor
Energy DB
Electricityprice
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2
MOEJ-S12: Promotion of climate policies by assessing environmental impacts of SLCP and seeking LLGHG emissions pathways (FY2014-FY2018)
Goal: To develop an integrated evaluation system for LLGHG and SLCP mitigation policy, by interconnecting emission inventory, integrated assessment models, and climate models.
Theme 1: Air quality change event analysis・Analysis on regional AQ change・Development of emission inventory ・Inversion algorithms of emission
estimation
Theme 2: Integrated model and future scenarios・Global socio-economic scenarios・National & regional emissions
scenarios・Urban & household emissions AQ
assessment
Theme 3: SLCP impacts on climate& environment・Impact assessment of aerosols & GHG・Assessment of health, agriculture,
water cycle, sea level rise
SLCP emissions scenariosImproved emission inventory
Feedback of impactsAssessment of activities/policies
Regional EmissionInventories and
Chemical Transfer Model
Integrated Assessment Model (AIM)
Climate and Environment
Model
Chemical transfer model and emission inventory in Asia
AIM/Enduse modelSocio-economical & emissions scenario
Climate model, earth system model Climate change impact & adaptation
Theme 4: Integrated operation system (Toolkits, data archive)
MDG・SDG・Future Earth
StakeholdersPolicy makers
Society
Information transmissionSystem utilization
CCAC, UNFCC, IPCC, EANETProposal and assessment of climate and
air pollution policies
Regional strategy
⇅Global
strategy
Science
Experiment setupDatabase development
Metric definitions
Model improvement
REASInventory
SLCP, AP, GHG emissions Based on SSP scenario
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AIM/Enduse[Global]- Target Gases and Sectors -
3
Sector Sub sectors whose mitigation actions are considered in Enduse model(other subsectors are treated as scenario)
Power generation Coal power plant, Oil power plant, Gas power plant, Renewable (Wind, Biomass, PV)
Industry Iron and steel，Cement Other industries （Boiler, Motor etc）
Transportation Passenger vehicle, Truck，Bus，Ship, Aircraft，Passenger train，Freight train (except for pipeline transport and international transport)
Residential & Commercial Cooling, Heating, Hot-water, Cooking, Lighting, Refrigerator, TV
Agriculture Livestock rumination, Manure management, Paddy field, Cropland
MSW Municipal solid waste,
Fugitive Fugitive emission from fuel
Fgas emissions By-product of HCFC-22, Refrigerant，Aerosol, Foams，Solvent, Etching，Aluminum production, Insulation gas, others.
CO2 CH4 N2O HFCs PFCs SF6 CFCs HCFCs SO2 NOx BC OC PM10 PM2.5 CO NH3 VOC HgFuel
combustion ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
Industrial process ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
Agriculture ✔ ✔ ✔Waste ✔ ✔
Fuel mining ✔Others ✔ ✔ ✔
Note ) Emission factors are set by energy, sector and region over time.
Mitigation measures listed in the following sectors are considered in the AIM/Enduse[Global] model
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Base-Year Calibration and Regional Classification
4Global 32 regions
24 regions in Asia in REAS inventoryREAS name AIM/Enduse[Global name
CHN China CHN China
TWN Taiwan XEA Other East Asia
JPN Japan JPN Japan
PRK N.Korea XEA Other East Asia
KOR S.Korea KOR Korea
MNG Mongolia XEA Other East Asia
BRN Brunei XSE Other South-east Asia
MMR Myanmar XSE Other South-east Asia
KHM Cambodia XSE Other South-east Asia
IDN Indonesia IDN Indonesia
LAO Laos XSE Other South-east Asia
MYS Malaysia MYS Malaysia
PHL Philippines XSE Other South-east Asia
SGP Singapore XSE Other South-east Asia
VNM Vietnam VNM Viet Nam
THA Thailand THA Thailand
AFG Afghanistan XSA Other South Asia
BGD Bangladesh XSA Other South Asia
BTN Bhutan XSA Other South Asia
LKA Sri Lanka XSA Other South Asia
IND India IND India
MDV Maldives XSA Other South Asia
NPL Nepal XSA Other South Asia
PAK Pakistan XSA Other South Asia
JPN (Japan)
AUS (Australia)
NZL (New Zealand)
RUS (Russia)
CHN (China)
IND (India)
IDN (Indonesia)
THA (Thailand)
USA (United States)
XE15 (Western EU-15)
XE10 (Eastern EU-10)
XE2 (Other EU-2)
XSA (Other South Asia)
XEA (Other East Asia)
XSE (Other South-East Asia)
MYS (Malaysia)
CAN (Canada)
TUR (Turkey)
XEWI (Other Western EU in Annex I)
XEEI (Other Eastern EU in Annex I)
XENI (Other EU)
XCS (Central Asia)
XOC (Other Oceania)
VNM (Viet Nam)
KOR (Korea)
MEX (Mexico)
BRA (Brazil)
ARG (Argentine)
XLM (Other Latin America)
ZAF (South Africa)
XAF (Other Africa)
XME (Middle East)
Annex I(exact)
OECD(approx)
ASEAN(exact)
[Base-Year] : 2010 Base-Year emissions in Asia are calibrated
close to REAS(Regional Emissions Inventory in Asia)
Base-Year emissions in Annex I countries are calibrated close to UNFCCC official national inventory
Base-Year emissions in all other countries are calibrated close to EDGER4.2
(note: EDGER4.2 provides only up to 2008)
[Regional Classification ] AIM/Enduse[Global] aggregates 32 regions in
the world and 12 regions in Asia. Correspondence of sectoral classification and
regional classification between REAS and AIM/Enduse[Global] is carefully checked.
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Overview of AIM/Enduse[Global] and element models
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050GH
G e
mis
sion
s in
Asia
(Gt C
O2e
q)
Cement production
Value added of 2nd industry
Agricultural production
Fluorocarbon emission
Transport volume (Freight)
Energy service (Residential)
Municipal solid waste generation
Energy service (Commercial)
Transportation Demand Model
Household Lifestyle Model
Municipal Solid Waste Model
Cement Production Model
Building sector
Energy Supply sector
Socio-economicscenario
Agricultural Prod & Trade model
FluorocarbonEmission Model
Agriculture sector
Model DatabaseVariable
Solid waste management sector
Transport volume (Passenger)
Crude steelproduction
Steel Production & Trade Model
Gas fuel
Heat
Liquid fuel
Solid fuel
Hydrogen
Energy balance
Primaryenergy
Energy price
Emission factor
EnergyDB
Nuclear Hydro Geothermal
Solar Wind Biomass
Emissions
Energy mining sector
GasCoal Oil
Bottom-up model (i.e. AIM/Enduse)
Macro Economic
frame Model
Population & Household number
GDP & Sector value added
Macro-economic model
Iron and steelsector
Cementsector
Other industries sector
Transport sector
Fluorocarbon sector
Energy Resource DB
Cost
Lifetime
Technology DB
Efficiency
Diffusion rate
Service demand models
Electricity
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SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways)
6
(O’Neill, 2012)
Source) https://secure.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/SspDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=about
Example of how to translate narrative scenarios to quantitative scenarios in this study Using basic socio-economic data (GDP, POP, GDP per capita) provided by SSP Changing energy compositions constraints (e.g. Coal power plant remains more such as SSP3, SSP5 >
SSP2 > SSP1, SSP4. Renewables can be introduced more such as SSP1, SSP4>SSP2> SSP3, SSP5 ) Changing level of GHG mitigation technology implementations (e.g. Payback period is longer such as
SSP1 > SSP2,SSP4,SSP5 > SSP3 due to increasing environmental awareness.) Changing level of Air Pollutants mitigation technology implementations (e.g. Higher policy pushes
and pollutions are more controlled such as SSP1 > SSP2,SSP4,SSP5 > SSP3. )
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Socio-economic scenarios in Asia
7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 2010 2030 2050
GDP
per
cap
ita
(100
0 U
S$20
05/p
erso
n) China
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1990 2010 2030 2050
GDP
per
cap
ita
(100
0 U
S$20
05/p
erso
n) India
01020304050607080
1990 2010 2030 2050
GDP
per
cap
ita
(100
0 U
S$20
05/p
erso
n) Japan
02468
10121416
1990 2010 2030 2050
GDP
per
cap
ita
(100
0 U
S$20
05/p
erso
n) ASEAN
05
10152025303540
1990 2010 2030 2050
GDP
(Tril
lion
US$
2005
)
China
0
5
10
15
20
1990 2010 2030 2050
GDP
(Tril
lion
US$
2005
)
India
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 2010 2030 2050G
DP (T
rillio
n U
S$20
05)
Japan
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 2010 2030 2050
GDP
(Tril
lion
US$
2005
)
ASEAN
0200400600800
1000120014001600
1990 2010 2030 2050
Popu
latio
n (m
illio
n)
China
0
500
1000
1500
2000
1990 2010 2030 2050
Popu
latio
n (m
illio
n) India
0
50
100
150
200
1990 2010 2030 2050
Popu
latio
n (m
illio
n) Japan
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1990 2010 2030 2050
Popu
latio
n (m
illio
n) ASEAN
Historical SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5
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Overview of AIM/Enduse[Global] and element models
8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050GH
G e
mis
sion
s in
Asia
(Gt C
O2e
q)
Cement production
Value added of 2nd industry
Agricultural production
Fluorocarbon emission
Transport volume (Freight)
Energy service (Residential)
Municipal solid waste generation
Energy service (Commercial)
Transportation Demand Model
Household Lifestyle Model
Municipal Solid Waste Model
Cement Production Model
Building sector
Energy Supply sector
Socio-economicscenario
Agricultural Prod & Trade model
FluorocarbonEmission Model
Agriculture sector
Model DatabaseVariable
Solid waste management sector
Transport volume (Passenger)
Crude steelproduction
Steel Production & Trade Model
Gas fuel
Heat
Liquid fuel
Solid fuel
Hydrogen
Energy balance
Primaryenergy
Energy price
Emission factor
EnergyDB
Nuclear Hydro Geothermal
Solar Wind Biomass
Emissions
Energy mining sector
GasCoal Oil
Bottom-up model (i.e. AIM/Enduse)
Macro Economic
frame Model
Population & Household number
GDP & Sector value added
Macro-economic model
Iron and steelsector
Cementsector
Other industries sector
Transport sector
Fluorocarbon sector
Energy Resource DB
Cost
Lifetime
Technology DB
Efficiency
Diffusion rate
Service demand models
Electricity
Total transportation volume PKTOTi,t
Total transportation volume per capita
PKTOTPi,t
PopulationPOPi,t
GDP per capitaGDPPi,t
Transportation volume of each mode
PKm,i,t
Modal shareSHm,i,t
Endogenousvariable
Exogenousvariable
Estimationequation
Definitionalequation
i: regiont: yearm: mode
E.g.) Passenger transport volume estimation mode
Production PRDi,t
Relative export price
PEWi,t
TIME trend TIMEt
Export EXCi,t
Import MCi,t
Export ratioREXCi,t
Producer Price PSi,t
Import ratioRMCi,t
GDP per capitaGDPPi,t
Consumption CNSi,t
PopulationPOPi,t
Consumption per capitaCNSPi,t
Export price PEi,t
Relative domestic price
PDMi,t
Import price PMi,t
Estimationequation
Definitionalequation
Endogenousvariable
Exogenousvariable
Domestic price PDi,t
Intl. pricePWt
Consider socie-economic features to future service demand estimations in each sector and country (i.e. POP, GDP, are consistent across sectors and countries)
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Service Demands estimations by SSP scenario- Sectors related to fossil fuel consumptions -
90
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Pass
enge
r tra
nspo
rt v
olum
eca
r & b
us (
trill
ion
pkm
) CHN
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Pass
enge
r tra
nspo
rt v
olum
eca
r & b
us (
trill
ion
pkm
) IND
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Pass
enge
r tra
nspo
rt v
olum
eca
r & b
us (
trill
ion
pkm
) JPN
0
1
2
3
4
5
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Pass
enge
r tra
nspo
rt v
olum
eca
r & b
us (
trill
ion
pkm
) ASEAN
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Cem
ent P
rodu
ctio
n (m
illio
n to
n) CHN
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Cem
ent P
rodu
ctio
n (m
illio
n to
n) IND
0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Ce
men
t Pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
ton) JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Cem
ent P
rodu
ctio
n (m
illio
n to
n) ASEAN
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Stee
l Pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
ton) CHN
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Stee
l Pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
ton) IND
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Stee
l Pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
ton) JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Stee
l Pro
duct
ion
(mill
ion
ton) ASEAN
SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5
Need more modification, especially SSP4 & SSP5
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Service Demands estimations by SSP scenario- Sectors related to non-fuel consumptions -
100
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mun
icip
al s
olid
was
te in
ladn
fill
(mill
ion
ton)
CHN
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mun
icip
al s
olid
was
te in
ladn
fill
(mill
ion
ton)
IND
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.8
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mun
icip
al s
olid
was
te in
ladn
fill
(mill
ion
ton)
JPN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mun
icip
al s
olid
was
te in
ladn
fill
(mill
ion
ton)
ASEAN
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Mill
k &
Bee
f Cat
tle (m
illio
n he
ad)
CHN
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Mill
k &
Bee
f Cat
tle (m
illio
n he
ad)
IND
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Mill
k &
Bee
f Cat
tle (m
illio
n he
ad)
JPN
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Mill
k &
Bee
f Cat
tle (m
illio
n he
ad)
ASEAN
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Rice
(mill
ion
ha)
CHN
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Rice
(mill
ion
ha)
IND
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Rice
(mill
ion
ha)
JPN
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Rice
(mill
ion
ha)
ASEAN
SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5
Need more modification, especially SSP4 & SSP5
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AIM/Enduse[Global] and element models
11
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050GH
G e
mis
sion
s in
Asia
(Gt C
O2e
q)
Building sector
Energy Supply sector
Agriculture sector
Solid waste management sector
Gas fuel
Heat
Liquid fuel
Solid fuel
Hydrogen
Energy balance
Primaryenergy
Energy price
Emission factor
EnergyDB
Nuclear Hydro Geothermal
Emissions
Energy mining sector
GasCoal Oil
Iron and steelsector
Cementsector
Other industries sector
Transport sector
Fluorocarbon sector
Energy Resource DB
Cost
Lifetime
Technology DB
Efficiency
Diffusion rate
Electricity
Select technologies to satisfy future service demands by sector and to
balance supply and demand, under various constraints
& under minimizing total system costs
By energy, sector and country, we can set various constraints such as Technology in the base year Energy balance in the base year Technology diffusion rate Speed of technology diffusion rate Technology constraints Energy constraints Speed of energy efficiency improvement Technology cost Induced technology costs etc
Bottom-up model (i.e. AIM/Enduse)
Solar Wind Biomass
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0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
BC E
mis
sion
(TgB
C)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
BC E
mis
sion
(TgB
C)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CH4
Emis
sion
(TgC
H4)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CH4
Emis
sion
(TgC
H4)
Short-Lived Climate Pollutants: CH4 and BC Emissions- Global and Asia -
12
EDGER4.2 SSP1 SSP2 SSP3UNFCCC2014 RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6REAS
World Asia
World Asia
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0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050CH
4 Em
issi
on (T
gCH4
) 0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CH4
Emis
sion
(TgC
H4)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CH4
Emis
sion
(TgC
H4)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CH4
Emis
sion
(TgC
H4)
0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0
100.0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CH4
Emis
sion
(TgC
H4)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CH4
Emis
sion
(TgC
H4)
Short-Lived Climate Pollutants: CH4 Emissions- Major countries in Annex I and Asia -
13
EDGER4.2 SSP1 SSP2 SSP3UNFCCC2014 RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6REAS
Japan USA EU15
China India ASEAN
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0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050BC
Em
issi
on (T
gBC)
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
BC E
mis
sion
(TgB
C)
0.000.200.400.600.801.001.201.401.601.802.00
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
BC E
mis
sion
(TgB
C)
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
BC E
mis
sion
(TgB
C)
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
BC E
mis
sion
(TgB
C)
0.000.010.010.020.020.030.030.040.040.050.05
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
BC E
mis
sion
(TgB
C)
Short-Lived Climate Pollutants: BC Emissions- Major countries in Annex I and Asia -
14
EDGER4.2 SSP1 SSP2 SSP3UNFCCC2014 RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6REAS
Japan USA EU15
China India ASEAN
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
PM10
Em
issi
on (T
gPM
10)
0
5
10
15
20
25
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
PM2.
5 Em
issi
on (T
gPM
2.5)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
NO
x Em
issi
on (T
gNO
x)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
SO2
Emis
sion
(TgS
O2)
Air Pollutants: SO2 , NOx, PM2.5, and PM10 Emissions- Asia -
15
EDGER4.2 SSP1 SSP2 SSP3UNFCCC2014 RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6REAS
Asia Asia
Asia Asia
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050SO
2 Em
issi
on (T
gSO
2)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
SO2
Emis
sion
(TgS
O2)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
SO2
Emis
sion
(TgS
O2)
0
5
10
15
20
25
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
SO2
Emis
sion
(TgS
O2)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050SO
2 Em
issi
on (T
gSO
2)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
SO2
Emis
sion
(TgS
O2)
Air Pollutants: SO2 Emissions
- Major countries in Annex I and Asia -
16
EDGER4.2 SSP1 SSP2 SSP3UNFCCC2014 RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6REAS
Japan USA EU15
China India ASEAN
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050N
Ox
Emis
sion
(TgN
Ox)
02468
101214161820
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
NO
x Em
issi
on (T
gNO
x)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
NO
x Em
issi
on (T
gNO
x)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
NO
x Em
issi
on (T
gNO
x)
0
5
10
15
20
25
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050N
Ox
Emis
sion
(TgN
Ox)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
NO
x Em
issi
on (T
gNO
x)
Air Pollutants: NOx Emissions- Major countries in Annex I and Asia -
17
EDGER4.2 SSP1 SSP2 SSP3UNFCCC2014 RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6REAS
Japan USA EU15
China India ASEAN
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050PM
10 E
mis
sion
(TgP
M10
)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
PM10
Em
issi
on (T
gPM
10)
0
5
10
15
20
25
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
PM10
Em
issi
on (T
gPM
10)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
PM10
Em
issi
on (T
gPM
10)
0123456789
10
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050PM
10 E
mis
sion
(TgP
M10
) 0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
PM10
Em
issi
on (T
gPM
10)
Air Pollutants: PM10 Emissions- Major countries in Annex I and Asia -
18
EDGER4.2 SSP1 SSP2 SSP3UNFCCC2014 RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6REAS
Japan USA EU15
China India ASEAN
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050PM
2.5
Emis
sion
(TgP
M2.
5)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
PM2.
5 Em
issi
on (T
gPM
2.5)
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
PM2.
5 Em
issi
on (T
gPM
2.5)
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
PM2.
5 Em
issi
on (T
gPM
2.5)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
PM2.
5 Em
issi
on (T
gPM
2.5)
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
PM2.
5 Em
issi
on (T
gPM
2.5)
Air Pollutants: PM2.5 Emissions
- Major countries in Annex I and Asia -
19
EDGER4.2 SSP1 SSP2 SSP3UNFCCC2014 RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6REAS
Japan USA EU15
China India ASEAN
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Asia-Pacific Integrated Modelhttp://www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/index.html
ご清聴ありがとうございましたThank you for your attention
