European Scenarios of Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases Mitigation:

Focus on PolandJ. Cofala, M. Amann, W. Asman, I. Bertok,

C. Heyes, Z. Klimont, L. Hoeglund-Isaksson, P. Rafaj, W. Schöpp, W. Winiwarter, F. Wagner

Atmospheric Pollution and Economic Development (APD) Programme

Outline

• European air pollution policy process

• Methodology of integrated assessment modeling

• Revision of the National Emission Ceilings (NEC) Directive and links to the EU climate policy

• Results for Poland

Air pollution control policy in Europe

• UN/ECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution – 2008: Gothenburg Protocol under review

• EU level, recent developments:– 2003: Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) Programme established– 2005: EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (TSAP)

proposed– 2008: Revision of the NEC Directive based on targets from

TSAP

The RAINS approach

for identifying cost-effective emission control strategies

SO2 NOx VOCNH3PM

Health AcidificationEutrophication Ozone

Policy targets on air quality

IIASA’s RAINSoptimization model

The GAINS approachfor identifying cost-effective emission control strategies

(GHG-Air pollution INteractions and Synergies )

SO2 NOx VOCNH3PM

Health AcidificationEutrophication Ozone

Policy targets on air quality

IIASA’s GAINSoptimization model

GHGs

Policy target on

GHG emissions

NEC revision process

• Several scenarios for 2020 analyzed• IIASA calculated

– Ceilings for air pollutants– Impact indicators– Control costs

• Bilateral consultations with Member States• Interim results presented to expert groups• Final scenarios ready, currently discussed within the

Commission• Proposal for the revised NEC Directive expected

soon

Activity scenarios for NEC analysis

• Climate and Energy Package (C&E):– minus 20 % GHG, access to CDM– 20 % renewable energy target– continuation of the ETS system– targets for non-ETS sectors– reductions of non-CO2 GHG based on GAINS analysis– energy demand and CO2 reduction – PRIMES energy model– agriculture – national scenarios

• Sensitivities:– PRIMES Baseline (continuation of the ETS system)– National energy scenarios

Cost curves for non-CO2 GHG for 2020 – an example

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140%

Emissions relative to 2005

Mar

gin

al c

ost

s, E

uro

/t C

O2e

q

CH4 N2O F-gases Total non-CO2 c n f t

Loss of life expectancy due to anthropogenic sources of PM2.5, months

2020 (4.2 months)

2000 (8 months)

Forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, %

2020 (3% of total)

2000 (19 % of total)

Poland: Non-ETS GHG emissions in 2020

Source: EC, DG ENV

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2005 Baseline C&E Package

CO2 Non CO2

Poland: “current policy” emissions of air pollutants

To achieve Thematic Strategy targets, emissions need to be further reduced by 5-20 % of 2000 level

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

SO2 NOx PM2.5 NH3 NMVOC

kilo

ton

s/ye

ar

2000 2020 National

2020 PRIMES Baseline 2020 PRIMES C&E Package

Poland: Environmental effects of the NEC scenario

 Unit 2000 Improvement

Loss of life expectancy due to exposure to particulate matter

months 10 45%

Area of forest ecosystems where acid deposition exceeds the critical loads for acidification

% 60 97%

Premature mortality from ozone Number of cases 1350 20%

Concluding remarks

• Revision of European air pollution control legislation will bring substantial environmental benefits

• European level research does not replace national assessment

• Exchange of information between European and national models facilitated through NIAM network

• IIASA will be happy to share the experience with Polish modellers

More information:

www.iiasa.ac.at/rains