Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Modeling Systems'

Sustainability: A Review

Amin Hosseinian-Far

Research Team:Prof. Hamid Jahankhani

Mr. Elias PimenidisProf. D. C. Wijeyesekera

Contents

Introduction Sustainability & Sustainable

Development Sustainability Modeling Approaches Quantitative Modeling Conclusion Key References

Introduction

- Bruntland introduced the Sustainable Development

- Focused on development- Harmony between ecological resources

and the needs assures sustainable trend- Politics (Governance) is the main driver- Three themes of sustainability were

introduced in the later notions: Economy, Society, Environment

Sustainability & Sustainable Development- Sustainable Development is the term

introduced for the environmental sustainability

- Presently the term sustainability is used in different subject areas

- ‘Sustainability’ has a broader context where ‘Sustainable Development’ is still used for the environmental perspectives

Sustainability & Sustainable DevelopmentThe application for sustainability can

be in the following areas:- Environment- Financial Systems- Organizational Sustainability- Civil Engineering- Infrastructures- Etc.

Sustainability Modeling

-Steinmuller (1993) states that “a ‘model’ is information that has meaning, sender and receiver and tries to transmit a message”.

-Although there are various definitions for that

-There is a distinction between mapping and modeling; Mapping can be a part of modeling

-Different themes of sustainability can be modeled

Approaches

Todorov & Marinova (2009) have classified all sustainability models into five main types:

- Pictorial Visualizations Models,- Quantitative Models,- Physical Models,- Conceptual Models,- and Standardizing Models.

Pictorial Visualizations Models

Physical Models

Conceptual Models

Standardizing Models

Quantitative Modeling

Boulanger & Bréchet (2005) classify the quantitative sustainability models into:

- Macro-Econometric Models- Computable General Equilibrium Models- Optimization Models- System Dynamics Models- Multi-Agent Simulation Models- Probabilistic/Bayesian Networks Models

Categories of Intelligent Systems

Influence Diagrams

Analytica

Analytica-Influence DiagramsInfluence diagrams offer an intuitive

way to identify and display the essential elements, including decisions, uncertainties, and objectives, and how they influence each other.

It differs from decision trees, The influence diagram shows the dependencies among the variables more clearly than the decision tree.

Conclusion

- The sustainability governance needs to have a clear view of the uncertainties.

- Sustainability of a system is an attribute of that system. It’s modeling is complex, and adaptive and includes uncertainties.

- The adjustments and impacts of the components of a system can be modeled using influence diagrams

- Analytica is a tool that can mock-up influence diagrams. It has a good user interface, is easy to learn and has been used by popular clients such as NASA, BG Group, Rexam, Green Decisions, etc.

Key References

• Boulanger, P.-M., and Bréchet, T. (2005). Models for policy-making in sustainable development: The state ofthe art and perspectives for research, Ecological Economics, 55, 330–350.

• Brundtland, H. (1987). Our Common Futures. Development and International Economic Co-operation. Oslo: United Nations.

• Fiksel, J. (2006). Sustainability and resilience: toward a systems approach. Sustainability: Science, Practice, & Policy2(2):14–21. http://sspp.proquest.com/archives/vol2iss2/0608-028.fiksel.html

• Todotov, V.I. & Marinova, D. (2009). Models of Sustainability. MODSIM Congress, Cairns, Australia

• Valente, G. (2004). Artificial Intelligence methods in Operational Knowledge Management. University of Torino

Thank you Questions?