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The author’s views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government. IPC Acute Food Insecurity Reference Table for Household Groups (Draft v. 2.0) Phase Name and Description Contributing Factors Household Outcomes Area Contextual Outcomes General Action Framework Hazards & Vulnerability Food Availability, Access, Utilization, Stability Human Water Requirement from Improved Source Food Consumption (Quantity & Quality) Livelihood Change (Assets & Strategies) Nutrition (Due to Food Deficits) Mortality Nutrition (Due to Food Deficits) Death Rate Cross-Cutting Objectives: (1) Mitigate immediate outcomes, (2) Support livelihoods, and (3) Address underlying causes Phase 1 No Acute Food Insecurity HH groups do not experience short-term instability; – or – HH groups experience short-term instability but are able to meet basic food needs without atypical coping strategies None or minimal effects of hazards and vulnerability causing short-term instability NDC NDC NDC NDC NDC NDC NDC NDC Monitoring Phase 2 Stressed HH group experiences short-term instability; – and – HH group food consumption is reduced but minimally adequate without having to engage in irreversible coping strategies Effects of hazards and vulnerability causing short- term instability and stressing livelihoods and food consumption Stressed, borderline adequate, and short-term unstable ≥ 15 liters pppd; unstable Quantity: Minimally adequate (2,100kcal pp/day) & unstable Quality: Minimally adequate micro-nutrients & unstable HDDS: Reduced and unstable dietary diversity but meeting most nutrient needs FCS: Acceptable consumption HHS: None or slight (scores 0-1) CSI: = Reference, but unstable HEA: Small or moderate Livelihood Protection Deficit Livelihood: stressed Coping Strategies: ‘insurance strategies’ Presence of mildly acutely malnourished child and/or mother Unchanged Wasting Prev.: 3-10%, unstable BMI < 18.5 Prev.: 10-20%, unstable CDR: < 0.5/10,000/day; unstable U5DR: ≤ 1/10,000/day; unstable Disaster Risk Reduction • Preparedness, prevention, and mitigation • Reduce vulnerability and build resilience • Complimentary sectoral support • Close monitoring • Advocacy Phase 3 Crisis HH group experiences short-term instability; – and – HH group has significant food consumption gaps with high or above-normal acute malnutrition; – or – HH group is marginally able to meet minimum food needs only with irreversible coping strategies such as liquidating livelihood assets or diverting expenses from essential non-food items Effects of hazards and vulnerability causing short- term instability resulting in loss of assets and/or significant food consumption deficits Inadequate and short-term unstable 7.5 to 15 liters pppd; unstable Quantity: Significant gap – or – 2,100 kcal pp/day via asset stripping Quality: Significant lack of micro-nutrients – or – adequate micronutrients pp/day via asset stripping HDDS: Acute dietary diversity deficit limiting key micronutrients FCS: Borderline consumption HHS: Moderate (scores 2-3) CSI: > Reference and increasing HEA: Substantial Livelihood Protection Deficit – or – Small Survival Deficit < 20% Livelihood: accelerated depletion Coping Strategies: ‘crisis strategies’ Presence of moderately acutely malnourished child and/or mother Marginal increase; unstable Wasting Prev.: 10-15% – or – > usual & increasing; or oedema BMI < 18.5 Prev.: 20-40%, 1.5 x > reference CDR: 0.5-1/10,000/day; unstable U5DR: 1-2/10,000/day; unstable Protect Livelihoods • Livelihood support programmes and limited resource transfer to increase food availability, access, and/or utilization • Complimentary sectoral support • Close monitoring • Advocacy Phase 4 Emergency HH group experiences short-term instability; – and – HH group has extreme food consumption gaps, resulting in very high acute malnutrition or excess mortality; – or – HH group has extreme loss of livelihood assets that will likely lead to food consumption gaps Effects of hazards and vulnerability causing short- term instability resulting in large loss of livelihood assets and/or food consumption deficits Extremely inadequate and short-term unstable 4 to 7.5 liters pppd; unstable Quantity: Extreme gap; much below 2,100kcal pp/day Quality: Extreme lack of micro-nutrients HDDS: Acute dietary diversity deficit limiting key micronutrients and macronutrients FCS: Poor consumption HHS: Severe (scores 4-6) CSI: Significantly > reference HEA: 20% to 50% Survival Deficit Livelihood: irreversible depletion Coping Strategies: ‘distress strategies’ Presence of severely acutely malnourished child and/or mother Significant increase Wasting Prev.: 15-30%; – or – > usual & increasing; or oedema BMI < 18.5 Prev.: > 40% CDR: 1-2/10,000/day – or – > 2x reference U5DR: 2-4/10,000/day Save Lives & Livelihoods • Resource transfer and livelihood support programmes to increase food availability, access, and/or utilization • Complimentary sectoral support • Close monitoring • Advocacy Phase 5 Catastrophe/ Famine HH group experiences short-term instability; – and – HH group has near complete lack of food and/ or other basic needs where starvation, death, and destitution are evident Effects of hazards and vulnerability causing short- term instability resulting in near complete collapse of livelihood assets and/or massive food consumption deficits Effectively no availability, access, and utilization; volatile < 4 liters pppd; unstable Quantity & Quantity: Effectively complete gap HDDS: Extreme dietary deficit of both micro and macronutrients FCS: [Below] poor consumption HHS: Severe (6) CSI: Far > reference HEA: Survival Deficit > 50% Livelihood: near complete collapse Coping Strategies: effectively no ability to cope Presence of several severely acutely malnourished children and/ or adolescents/ adults Death is evident in most HHs Wasting Prev.: > 30%; – and/or – oedema BMI < 18.5 Prev.: far > 40% CDR: > 2/10,000/day U5DR: > 4/10,000/day Prevent Total Collapse • Critically urgent protection of human lives • Comprehensive assistance with basic needs (e.g. food, water, shelter, sanitation, health, etc.) • Immediate legal interventions and political- economic negotiations, as necessary • Close monitoring • Advocacy Note: BMI = body mass index; CDR = crude death rate; CSI = coping strategies index (developed by CARE and the World Food Programme); FCS = food consumption scale; HDDS=household dietary diversity score; HEA = household economy analysis; HH = household; HHS = household hunger scale; NDC = not a defining characteristic; pppd = per person per day; U5DR = under five crude death rate Remote Monitoring Flag Name Description No Flag No Acute Food Insecurity Important anomalies in proximate causes of food insecurity are not present. Likely food security outcome corresponds to IPC Phase 1. Yellow Flag Stressed Important anomalies in proximate causes of food insecurity have been observed and outcomes corresponding to Phase 2 Stressed on the IPC Acute Food Insecurity Reference Table are likely to occur now or in the future. Red Flag Crisis Important anomalies in proximate causes of food insecurity have been observed and outcomes corresponding to Phase 3 Crisis or higher on the IPC Acute Food Insecurity Reference Table are likely to occur now or in the future. Eastern Africa: A food security emergency is deepening across the eastern Horn with roughly 12.5 million people in need of emergency assistance. Poor harvests in marginal cropping areas, persistent high staple food prices, and a warmer than usual dry season in pastoral areas are expected to drive further deterioration through September. A food crisis is also developing in Sudan and the newly independent Republic of South Sudan due to continued insecurity, displacement/ migration, persistent trade restrictions, and rainfall deficits in some areas. Somalia: A famine has been declared in five areas of Somalia and a humanitarian emergency persists across all other regions of the south. Four in ten children in the south are acutely malnourished and tens of thousands of excess deaths have already occurred. Humanitarian response remains inadequate, and as a result, famine is expected to spread across all regions of the south by September. Nationwide, 3.7 million people are in crisis, with 3.2 million people in need of immediate, lifesaving assistance. Southern Africa: Food security drivers have been stable. The main maize harvest was generally successful despite a mid-season dry spell. Commodity retail prices have remained stable relative to past volatility. Most of the region is expected to experience no to minimal acute food insecurity (IPC phase 1). Western Africa: The peak of the agricultural and agropastoral lean season is less severe than usual, except in Chad, due to slow recovery from the 2010 crisis and a delayed start of season. However, food insecurity in Chad is less severe than previously expected due in part to underestimation of traders’ capacity to respond to relaxation of price ceilings and restoration of trade with Libya. Central America: In Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and El Salvador, maize and bean prices remain high due to poor harvests in the region last year and high international prices. As the lean season progresses, poor households will continue to depend on labor for income and market purchases. Progress of the primera rainy season has been largely average to above average, with some concerns over dryness in El Salvador and localized heavy rains in Honduras. Haiti: Food security conditions are expected to deteriorate in some areas of the country, as the spring harvest will be delayed due to poor and erratic distribution of rainfall in many parts of the country, and purchasing power will be low due to high food prices. Central Asia: Following erratic and untimely rain and snowfall in 2010-2011, the main wheat harvest in Afghanistan and Tajikistan will be below normal this year. Rainfed wheat in northwestern Afghanistan is considered to be a complete failure, and market prices for wheat are higher than normal. Households dependent on rainfed agriculture or on-farm agricultural labor in northern Afghanistan will likely experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) during this period. Yemen: Yemen continues to experience civil unrest and high food prices, threatening household food insecurity. Eastern Africa: Forecasts suggest that rainfall deficits between October and December are possible over the extended Mandera triangle and in parts of south and central Somalia. Even if rains are average, food security in the eastern Horn will remain constrained by reduced asset holdings and above-average prices for staple foods. However, average rains, in combination with increasing assistance programs, would results in improvements in household food access and levels of malnutrition. June-September 2011 rains have started poorly in Sudan and Ethiopia, threatening September 2011-January 2012 main-season cereal harvests. Somalia: Further deterioration is considered likely given the very high levels of both severe acute malnutrition and under-5 mortality in combination with an expectation of worsening pasture and water availability, a continued increase in local cereal prices, and a below-average Gu season harvest. During the 1991/92 famine, a significant “wave” of mortality occurred following the start of the October rains, despite widespread food assistance, because health interventions were inadequate to prevent major disease outbreaks. Southern Africa: In most of southern Africa, the lean season is expected to begin in October and last through the spring of 2012. Some poor and very poor households in Zimbabwe and Mozambique are expected to exhaust household food stocks and face some difficulty accessing food if food prices were to rise. However at this time there is no indication that there will be significant price increases during this period. Western Africa: This is the peak of the harvest and post-harvest season in the agricultural and agropastoral zones throughout the region. Cereal prices will be seasonably low, and prices for small ruminants and labor demand will be seasonably high, leading to minimal or no acute food insecurity essentially region-wide. Central America: Food security in Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and El Salvador is expected to improve with harvests beginning in August across the region, which are likely to stabilize food prices. However, increased tropical storm activity due to the forecast for above-average hurricane activity could impact food security. Haiti: Modest food security improvements are expected in most parts of the country as food availability increases with incoming harvests. However, heavy rainfall during this period could increase cases of cholera, which continue to rise in many parts of the country. In addition, increased tropical storm activity due to the forecast for above-average hurricane activity could impact food security. Central Asia: The lean season is expected to start earlier than normal in northern Afghanistan following the failure of the 2011 rainfed wheat crop. Poor households are expected to depend on food assistance to meet their food needs during this period. Wheat cultivation in the central highlands of Afghanistan is also expected to underperform, leaving some households without food stocks for two to three months. Sierra Leone Liberia Senegal Yemen Burundi Tanzania Mauritania Mali Niger Nigeria Chad Burkina Faso Malawi Zambia Zimbabwe Mozambique Djibouti Ethiopia Kenya Somalia Rwanda South Sudan Sudan Uganda Tajikistan Afghanistan El Salvador Honduras Nicaragua Guatemala Haiti Sierra Leone Liberia Senegal Yemen Burundi Tanzania Mauritania Mali Niger Nigeria Chad Burkina Faso Malawi Zambia Zimbabwe Mozambique Djibouti Ethiopia Kenya Somalia Rwanda South Sudan Sudan Uganda Tajikistan Afghanistan El Salvador Honduras Nicaragua Guatemala Haiti FEWS NET Food Security Outlook Most Likely Scenario, July through December 2011 July through September 2011 October through December 2011 The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is a USAID-funded activity that provides timely and rigorous early warning information about emerging and evolving food security issues. We work with local, regional, and international food security partners to build consensus and develop local capacity to detect and manage the risks of food insecurity. FEWS NET currently operates in 18 countries in Africa, as well as in Haiti, Guatemala, and Afghanistan. Food Security Outlooks are a core component of FEWS NET’s efforts to translate early warning analysis into actionable information. Outlooks use evidence-based scenarios to estimate future food security outcomes. The scenarios are developed by examining the spatial extent of hazards and their potential effects on food security, given household livelihood systems and current food security conditions. These outcomes, such as household food deficits or malnutrition, are then classified using the IPC Acute Food Insecurity Reference Table. Outlook maps display these projected food security outcomes over a six-month period; the maps do not indicate the number of food-insecure people in a given area. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification’s (IPC) Acute Food Insecurity Reference Table describes a standardized scale which classifies the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes based on a convergence of evidence. This classification can be used to highlight priority areas and populations in need of emergency response. See http://www.ipcinfo.org/ for complete information on the IPC. This information is current through July 31, 2011. For additional information, contact FEWS NET at info@fews. net. For more information about the IPC Acute Food Insecurity Reference Table for Household Groups and the IPC, visit http://www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale FEWS NET monitors an additional 10 countries through its Remote Monitoring initiative, which is designed to be flexible and inclusive by adding to the portfolio of presence countries. FEWS NET does not open offices in remotely-monitored countries. Instead, working through partners in each of the remotely-monitored countries, FEWS NET identifies key food security indicators and monitor them regularly for anomalies that may lead to increased food insecurity. For country and regional outlook reports, visit www.fews.net.
