Downscaling the “Reasons for Concerns” to the Local

Government Level as a Prerequisite for Tailored Adaptation

and Disaster Risk Reduction – A Case Study from Austria

“Our Common Future Under Climate Change” Conference

Paris, 8 July 2015

1 alpS Centre for Climate Change Adaptation, 2 Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik 3 Österreichische Agentur für Ernährungssicherheit, 4 Umweltbundesamt GmbH 5 Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, 6 Bundesforschungszentrum für Wald 7 Interfakultärer Fachbereich Geoinformatik - Z_GIS, 8 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Angela Michiko Hama1, Ivonne Anders2, Andreas Baumgarten3, Helene Berthold3, Paul Dobesberger1, Brigitte Eder1, Astrid Felderer4, Oliver

Fritz5, Robert Jandl6, Markus Keuschnig1, Stefan Kienberger7, Markus Leitner4, Žiga Malek8, Reinhard Mechler8, Ina Meyer5, Ivo Offenthaler4,

Andreas Schaffhauser2, Franz Sinabell5, Raphael Spiekermann7

ARISE-Projekt

Goal and Objectives

Developing a decision support system for climate-sensitive iterative risk

management as a key adaptation approach

Identifying and bridging the gaps between global CCA and DRR frameworks,

research and policy and national, subnational as well as local risk management,

adaptation needs and requirements

Downscaling IPCC’s “Burning Embers - Reasons for Concern” to the local level

(LBE) with respect to hazard types and sectors including a consideration of key

risk drivers

Supporting the building of resilience and adaptation capacities at the local level

via an LBE-integrated, iterative risk management approach

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ARISE-Projekt

Background – IPCC’s Reasons for Concern

Source: IPCC AR5, SPM 3

Background – from global to local

First application of global Burning Embers

concept at the local government level

Study site: City of Lienz, East Tyrol, Austria

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Source: Z_GIS/ARISE; IPPC AR5 SPM

ARISE-Projekt

Approach (I)

Blended approach of top-down and

bottom-up as well as model-driven

and participatory methodologies

Co-creation of knowledge and co-

design of tools and measures

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ARISE-Projekt

Approach (II)

• Identification of risk drivers

• Local and national knowledge base

• Gap analysis

Prerequisites

Framework Development

• Downscaling climate scenarios

• Co-designing socio-economic scenarios

• Participatory LBE-generation

Framework Application

Integration RM

Implemen- tation

• Evaluation of LBEs and integration in RM

• Co-designing risk-based adaptation measures

• Selection and implementation of pilot measures; testing of tool

• Results analysis and finalization of LBE concept

• M&E strategy

• Definition of framework

• Adaptation of Burning Embers

• Development of methodology

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ARISE-Projekt

First Results – Qualitative Expert Interviews

More than 80% of respondents believe that the climate and hazard situation

have changed

Perceived increase of heavy precipitation events and mass movements

Perceived increase in temperature extremes and heat waves

More tailored awareness raising and outreach required as well as better

scenarios

7 Copyright: City of Lienz

First Results – Downscaled Climate Scenarios – A1B (I)

Mean temperature + 1.6 – 2.8°C

Summer days (tmax > 25 °C) 0 – +10 days

Hot days (tmax > 30 °C) 0 – +1.3 days

Frost days (tmin < 0 °C) - 45 – - 22 days

Temperature

Annual precipitation -200mm – + 100mm

Heavy precipitation days

(precipitation >= 30mm)

- 2.5 - + 2.7 days

Precipitation

Changes until mid-century

(reference period 1981-2010)

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ARISE-Projekt

First Results – Downscaled Climate Scenarios (II)

Hot Days

Lienz

Hot Days 1981/2010

Mean no.of days/year with tmax>= 30°C

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ARISE-Projekt

First Results – Downscaled Climate Scenarios (III)

Lienz

Precipitation > 30mm 1981/2010

Mean no. of days/year with precip >30mm

Mean no. of events/year

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ARISE-Projekt

First Results – Socio-Economic Scenarios (I)

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First Results – Socio-Economic Scenarios (II)

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“Matching” Stakeholder Scenarios and Shared Socio-Economic Pathways

Source: WIFO/ARISE

SSP1 – Sustainability

Taking the Green Road

Participatory

Scenarios Lienz

"Boom"

"Stagnation"

Shared Socio-Economic

Pathways (SSP, IPCC) –

Narrative

SSP3 – Regional Rivalry

A Rocky Road

Sustainability Business-as-Usual

First Results – Socio-Economic Scenarios – Infrastructure

& Natural Hazards

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Infrastructure facilities essential for functionality of economy and society

SUSTAINABILITY

Preventive, pro-active risk management

Sustainable energy supply, decentralized

energy provision concepts based on

renewables

Supra-regional water supply and

wastewater systems

Sustainable mobility concepts and offers

based on multi-modality and “on

demand” offers

Population to remain stable on the whole

Infrastructure facilities to be maintained

and improved in terms of quality

BUSINESS-AS-USUAL

Re-active natural hazard and risk

management, high costs

Spatial planned insufficiently focused on

future (developments), high follow-up

costs

High maintenance efforts of

infrastructure, not financially viable due

to shrinking population

ARISE-Projekt

Current and Next Steps

Application of LBE-Framework

Risk analysis of current state including system and sectoral relevance as well

as confidence levels – local expert-based

Risk analysis of future state including system and sectoral relevance as well

as confidence – local expert-based and study/scientific expert-based

Generation of LBEs per risk type and specific risk

Integration in municipal risk management operations and strategies

Desk review of climate-sensitive risk management measures/risk-based

adaptation measures and development of risk information tool

Design and test runs of customized measures for top risks in collaboration

with local decision-makers

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ARISE-Projekt

Challenges

Communicating the concept

Dealing with uncertainty

Mainstreaming of DRR into all parts of

administration

Delineating the system boundaries

“Reasons for Concern” more than

aggregated individual risks

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Thank you.

hama@alps-gmbh.com

This project is funded by ‘The Climate and Energy Fund of the Austrian Federal Government’ within the framework of the

‘Austrian Climate Research Programme’