© Ipsos© Ipsos
Core Political DataIpsos Poll
1 ‒ © Ipsos
July 8, 2021
© 2021 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
© Ipsos2 ‒
Ipsos Poll
Core Political Data
These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted July 7-8, 2021. A sample of 1,004 Americans ages 18+ were
This included 437 Democrats, 375 Republicans, and 102 independents
The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus the following percentage points:
3.5 for All Adults, 5.3 for Democrats, 5.8 for Republicans, and 11.1 for independents
interviewed online for this survey.
The data from this survey was weighted to the U.S. current population data using Gender, Age, Education, Ethnicity, and Region
❖ Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls❖ All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and
measurement error❖ Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent
❖ Where figures do not sum to 100, this is because of rounding
For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix
© Ipsos3 ‒
All Adult Americans
Right Direction/Wrong TrackGenerally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
34%
51%
15%
All Adults
11%
81%
8%
Republicans
27%
62%
12%
Independents
60%23%
16%
Democrats
Right Direction Wrong Track Don’t Know
© Ipsos4 ‒
All Adult Americans
Most Important Problem Facing AmericaIn your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the U.S. today?
7%
5%
1%
1%
3%
4%
6%
8%
8%
8%
9%
9%
11%
21%
Other
Don't know
War and foreign conflicts
Energy issues
Terrorism and extremism
Education
Morality
Inequality and discrimination
Environment and climate
Public health, disease, and illness
Immigration
Crime or corruption
Health care system
Economy, unemployment, and jobs
* Starting with 2/4/21 wave, “system” was added to “Healthcare” ,“extremism” was added to “Terrorism”, and “corruption” was added to “Crime”. “Public health, disease, and illness” and “Inequality and discrimination” were added as new issues. “Economy, generally” and “Unemployment/lack of jobs” were combined to create “Economy, unemployment, and jobs”
© Ipsos5 ‒
All Adult Americans
Most Important Problem Facing AmericaIn your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the U.S. today?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1 5 9
13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97
101
105
109
113
117
121
125
129
133
137
141
145
149
153
157
161
165
169
173
177
181
185
189
193
197
201
205
209
213
217
221
225
229
233
237
241
245
249
253
257
261
265
269
273
277
281
285
289
293
297
301
305
309
313
317
321
325
329
333
337
341
345
349
353
357
361
365
369
373
377
381
385
389
393
397
401
405
409
413
417
421
425
429
433
437
441
445
449
453
457
461
465
469
473
477
481
485
489
493
497
501
505
2014
Health care systemCrime or CorruptionImmigrationEconomy, unemployment, and jobs
Economy, generally + Unemployment/jobs (asked separately prior to Feb 2021)
2012 2013 2015 2016 2018 2019 2020 2021
*Prior to February 2021, “Economy, generally” and “Unemployment/lack of jobs” were asked separately, results on chart display the sum of both issues through that date. Have since been combined to create “Economy, unemployment, and jobs”. Other changes include “system” being added to “healthcare”, and “Inequality and discrimination” and "Public health, disease, and illness” were added as new issues.
2017
© Ipsos6 ‒
By Party ID
Most Important Problem Facing AmericaIn your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the U.S. today?
Democrats Republicans Independents
Economy, unemployment, and jobs 16% 27% 22%
War and foreign conflicts 0% 0% 4%
Immigration 2% 17% 11%
Terrorism and extremism 4% 2% 5%
Healthcare system 16% 7% 6%
Public health, disease, and illness 10% 4% 9%
Energy issues 1% 2% 0%
Morality 5% 7% 6%
Education 4% 4% 5%
Crime or corruption 7% 14% 8%
Environment and climate 13% 2% 7%
Inequality and discrimination 14% 2% 4%
Other 4% 9% 6%
Don’t know 4% 2% 5%
* Starting with 2/4/21 wave, “system” was added to “Healthcare” ,“extremism” was added to “Terrorism”, and “corruption” was added to “Crime”. “Public health, disease, and illness” and “Inequality and discrimination” were added as new issues. “Economy, generally” and “Unemployment/lack of jobs” were combined to create “Economy, unemployment, and jobs”
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All Adult Americans
Joe Biden’s Weekly ApprovalOverall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as President (previously president-elect)?
60%58%
56%53% 53%
55%53%
55%57% 57%
56% 57% 58%54%
59%
53% 54%56%
54% 54% 55% 55% 56% 56%
52% 54%55%
52% 53% 51% 52%
31%35% 35%
38% 37% 37% 37%
32%34% 35% 36% 37%
35%
39%35%
41% 41%37% 38% 39% 38% 38% 38% 39%
44% 42% 40%42%
40%42%
43%
Nov 13-17 Nov 30-Dec 1
Dec 2-8 Dec 11-14 Dec 18-22 Jan 4-5 Jan 8-12 Jan 20-21 Feb 2-3 Feb 9-10 Feb 17-18 Feb 24-25 Mar 3-4 Mar 10-11 Mar 17-18 Mar 24-25 Mar 31-Apr 1
Apr 7-8 Apr 14-15 Apr 21-22 Apr 27-28 May 4-5 May 11-12 May 19-20 May 26-27 June 2-3 June 9-10 June 16-17June 23-24 June 30-July 1
July 7-8
20212020
Total Disapprove
Total Approve
© Ipsos8 ‒
By Party ID
Partisan Biden ApprovalOverall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as President (previously president-elect)?
91% 92% 90% 88% 89% 89% 88% 91%94% 92% 90%
87%92% 91% 92% 90% 92% 92%
88%92% 91% 89% 91% 90%
85%88% 90%
86%88% 89%
91%
31%
21% 23%19% 20% 20% 23% 21%
24% 23%20% 19% 22% 20%
23%
15%18% 20% 21%
17% 19%22%
18% 20%15% 16%
20%16%
21%18% 13%
58% 58%53%
47%43%
50%46% 47% 46%
56%
48%
57% 56%
48%
56%52%
44%
55%
48% 50%
59%
49%
55% 54%48%
55%49% 50%
45%
34%
44%
Nov 13-17
Nov 30-Dec 1
Dec 2-8 Dec 11-14
Dec 18-22
Jan 4-5 Jan 8-12 Jan 20-21 Feb 2-3 Feb 9-10 Feb 17-18
Feb 24-25
Mar 3-4 Mar 10-11
Mar 17-18
Mar 24-25
Mar 31-Apr 1
Apr 7-8 Apr 14-15
Apr 21-22
Apr 27-28
May 4-5 May 11-12
May 19-20
May 26-27
June 2-3 June 9-10 June 16-17
June 23-24
June 30-July 1
July 7-8
Democrats Republicans Independents
20212020
© Ipsos9 ‒
Appendix
The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the parameter θ\, i.E., Y|θ~bin(n,θ), where n is the size of our sample. In this setting, Y counts the number of “yes”, or “1”, observed in the sample, so that the sample mean (ത𝑌) is a natural estimate of the true population proportion θ. This model is often called the likelihood function, and it is a standard concept in both the bayesian and the classical framework. The bayesian1 statistics combines both the prior distribution and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution.
The posterior distribution represents our opinion about which are the plausible values for θ adjusted after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior distribution is one’s knowledge base updated using the latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions specified here, the posterior
distribution is also a beta distribution (π(𝜃
𝑦)~β(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters.
Our credibility interval for θ is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals represent our belief about which are the most plausible
values for θ given our updated knowledge base. There are different ways to calculate these intervals based on π (𝜃
𝑦). Since we want only one measure of
precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to what is done within the classical framework, we will compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample. The worst case occurs when we assume that a=1 and b=1 and y=n/2. Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the normal
distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by, approximately: ഥ𝑌 ∓1
𝑛
How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals
For this poll, the Bayesian credibility interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for complex weighting2
Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below:
1 Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC | ISBN: 158488388X | 20032 Kish, L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200.
SAMPLE SIZE CREDIBILITY INTERVALS
2,000 2.5
500 5.0
100 11.2
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