Demographic Megatrends in Asia and Eastern Europe – Challenges and Opportunities for Health and Social Protection

November 13 – 14, 2013, Hanoi, Viet Nam

Dr. Thomas OttOAGIS

IT-Tool DeCiDeDemographic Challenges in Development

Objectives to visualize demographic scenarios, to illustrate the interrelationships between demography,

development and global challenges, to derive and prioritize objectives and strategies, to identify potential fields of cooperation, to develop “business” for GIZ.

Target Audience (political) decision makers in partner countries executives and consultants in governmental departments sectoral experts (in need to add a demographic aspect) journalists, students and other multipliers

Technical Background and User Interface Microsoft Excel™ 2007 and higher 150+ Sheets multilingual (German, English, French, …) distinct color scheme for ease of orientation open access to all data allowing easy updates and modifications

Content and Structure 10 demographic challenges with 57 indicators (time series) 14 demographic options and policy fields spaces for user-defined challenges and options interactive assessment of challenges and options for mutual

development of strategies 6 simulations of future population growth and change prototype with data for 6 countries from 3 continents

(each country with 2 reference countries)

Challenges Options Strategies

CH 1 CH 2 CH 3 CH 4 CH 5 CH 6 CH 7 CH 8 CH 9 CH 10 CH 11

Overview of Challenges

Aggregation and Weighting of Challenges

Introduction

Settings

Looking back

Looking ahead

I Introduction

II Challenges

III Options

IV Strategies

Population Data/CapacitiesPopulation GrowthPopulations StructurePopulation Distribution

Challenges Poverty Scarcity of Resources Health Risks Climate Change Ageing and Lack of Social Security Lack of Prospects for Young People Susceptibility to Conflicts, Missing Government and Security Urbanization Development of Rural Areas and Food Supply Migration User Defined Challenges

CH 1 CH 2 CH 3 CH 4 CH 5 CH 6 CH 7 CH 8 CH 9 CH 10 CH 11

Overview of Challenges

Aggregation and Weighting of Challenges

Overview of Options and Policy Fields

OP 1 OP 2 OP 3 OP 4 OP 5 OP 7OP 6 OP 10 OP 11 OP 14OP 12OP 8 OP 9 OP 13 OP 15

Aggregation and Weighting of Options

Introduction

Settings

Looking back

Looking ahead

I Introduction

II Challenges

III Options

IV Strategies

Population Data/CapacitiesPopulation GrowthPopulations StructurePopulation Distribution

Policy Fields and Options Demographic Capacity Development Rights and Self-Determination of Women Security of Resources Health Care, SRHR and Family Planning Adaption to Climate Change Establishing and Strengthening of Social Security Systems Education Promoting the Young Generation Employment Policy and Economic Development Supporting Generational Ties Governance and Security Urban Development and Urban Planning Rural Development and Decentralization Organizing Migration User Defined Challenges

CH 1 CH 2 CH 3 CH 4 CH 5 CH 6 CH 7 CH 8 CH 9 CH 10 CH 11

Overview of Challenges

Aggregation and Weighting of Challenges

Overview of Options and Policy Fields

OP 1 OP 2 OP 3 OP 4 OP 5 OP 7OP 6 OP 10 OP 11 OP 14OP 12OP 8 OP 9 OP 13 OP 15

Aggregation and Weighting of Options

Final Assessment and Simulation Results

Joint Definition of Strategies

Introduction

Settings

Looking back

Looking ahead

I Introduction

II Challenges

III Options

IV Strategies

Population Data/CapacitiesPopulation GrowthPopulations StructurePopulation Distribution

Final Assessment and Simulation “Traffic Lights” Projection of demographic key indicators

Interactive Presentation of the Tool

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