MANITOBA ELECTION 2016

“Pre-election polls are expected to be accurate in their estimates of a voting tally or the share of the vote for parties and candidates in an election, especially if they

are conducted close to the election itself.”

- World Association for Social, Opinion and Market Research, ESOMAR CODE, Section 8.1

TABLE OF CONTENTS

A Message from the President, 4Polling 101, 5

Reading Our Polls, 6-8FAQ, 9

For Media, 10What to Expect in Manitoba, 11

Our Record in 2015, 12

A MESSAGE FROM THE PRESIDENT

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet Research was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

Welcome to Mainstreet Research and thank you for reading our guide to Manitoba Polling.

As I began writing this letter, we found ourselves in the early stages of the US Presidential Primaries and although Mainstreet is a Canadian company, I follow US politics pretty closely. Last week, during the Democratic Debate between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, Clinton said that “Wall Street cannot destroy Main Street”. It is perhaps appropriate to note that the sentiment expressed by Mrs. Clinton is the origin of the name Mainstreet.

The Mainstreet name originates from a saying I have used for many years, I cannot say whether I came up with it or if someone else said it before me. The saying is as follows: “The votes are on Main Street, not on Bay Street”. Public opinion is not determined on Wall Street or

Bay Street. Money is a necessary part of politics and public administration, and it can pay for many persuasive things, but it cannot buy public sentiment.

Mainstreet Research began as a Technology company, finding technology solutions and providing data and data integration to political candidates and parties across Canada for over a decade. As we grew and evolved with emerging technologies like VOIP, SMS and GIS, we began to see that our big data approach to sampling resulted in superior results than to those of 20th century pollsters. After a number of years of extensive testing and the addition of various resources to our team, we began releasing polls for public consumption and scrutiny. Our success in correctly predicting voter behaviour across Canada at all levels of politics is a record we are proud to stand on.

Mainstreet Research continues to strive for excellence in the world of public opinion and research. Our new technologies, including Smart IVR, Chimera IVR and our mobile application, CampaignR, continue to lead while others wring their hands about decreased response rates and stampede to embrace online panel, non probability sampling (or pseudo Probability Sampling) that has led to a series of catastrophic polling failures in Canada and Europe.

We believe in probability sampling.We believe in large sample sizes.We believe in eliminating/mitigating bias in every possible way.We believe in disclosure of scripting, and including undecided responses.

Thank-you for reading our guide to our Manitoba Election Polls, if you have any further questions please don’t hesitate to be in touch.

- Quito Maggi, President, Mainstreet Research

SCRIPTING

DIALING

DATA INTEGRITY

RELEASE

WEIGHTING

REPORT

The survey topic(s) is/are decided upon. Every Manitoba election poll includes voter intention questions. Working with our media partners we determine additional issue

questions.

The poll is scheduled and dialed. This is where you may receive a phone call from us.

All data is re-formatted and checked - this includes removing any identifying information from responses to

ensure respondent confidentiality.

The data from the poll is weighted to reflect the general population using our own proprietary formulas. You can

read more about weighting on page 8.

Tables are sent to our graphics team to create charts, we analyze the results and build a press release. Our media

partner receives the details of the poll results.

The first place the poll results appear is The Winnipeg Sun, later the full report is uploaded to our website.

POLLING 101 - A SIMPLIFIED TIMELINE

A4

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGERPC LED BY BRIAN PALLISTERLIBERAL PARTY LED BY RANA BOKHARI GREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOME UNDECIDEDSAMPLE

18-3418%38%13%7%

24%162

35-4914%38%21%4%23%412

50-6416%38%19%3%

24%522

65+19%46%14%3%18%702

Female17%39%17%5%22%961

Male16%40%16%5%

23%837

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGERPC LED BY BRIAN PALLISTERLIBERAL PARTY LED BY RANA BOKHARI GREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOME UNDECIDEDSAMPLE

Winnipeg20%33%18%6%23%891

Rest of MB11%50%15%3%21%907

NDP PC Liberal Green Undecided

Manitoba17%40%17%5%

22%1798

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Jan 7 Jan 27 Feb 11 Feb 20

READING OUR REPORTS

On the previous page we’ve dropped in an actual page from one of our Manitoba reports. Here are some common things to look for in each of our releases.

1. Page number. Sometimes we will release the results of a poll in different parts. You’ll be able to tell if there is a companion report available by looking at the letter. For instance, if you see B4 this means there is a companion report available (the A report). Similarly if you see a C series report there are also A and B reports available.

2. Poll sponsor. Most polls you’ll see this election will be Mainstreet/Postmedia polls. These appear in the Winnpeg Sun. If you want to be the first to read our results make sure you have a subscription. There may be polls released this election commissioned by a third party - in that instance you will see their logo prominently displayed in the upper right hand corner. We identify the sponsor of a poll on every page of a release.

3. Question asked. In most cases this is the exact wording of the question though in some cases we will condense or summarize a question with a subject heading. When you see something like; PARTY AFFILIATION VS SUPPORT FOR LNG, you’ll see a breakout table looking at Party Affiliation (1 question) with the results compared to a second question (Support for LNG). You can see the precise wording of questions on the Script page which is the third last page of a release (unless the script runs more than 1 page).

4. Sample Sizes by Demographic. These are the raw sample sizes for the poll. In this case we surveyed 162 adults between the ages of 18-34. 837 respondents were Male, 961 were female. Every poll we release is weighted - for more on how weighting affects our polls see the next page.

5. Topline numbers for the province. You can see from this column we surveyed 1,798 Manitoba voters. 40% are voting for the PCs. The column should add up to between 98%-102% as a result of rounding. Make sure you are reading the report vertically. In this way you can read the breakout for Winnipeg and the Rest of Manitoba.

6. Poll dates. These are the dates the polls were conducted - not the dates the polls were released. To see previous reports go to mainstreetresearch.ca/manitoba-polls

Not Pictured:

7. On the front page of the report under Methodology you will see how the poll was conducted (typically IVR) the margin of error for the poll and the regional margins of error.

8. This page has the results for ‘all voters’ this includes those who are undecided. A separate page will have results for ‘Decided & Leaning Voters’ and will be labeled as such. Another page will have results for ‘Decided Only’ and will be labled as such.

READING OUR REPORTS

WEIGHTING

When we collect a sample it’s highly unlikely that it will be representative of the total population. This is where weighting comes in. For example if 40% of our sample is Male and the Male population is 50%, we will assign a greater score to Male respondents than to Female respondents to make up the difference. Every polling firm weighs their sample in their own way. Our weights are based on the 2011 Canadian Census, and we identify the weights in our Methodology statement on the front of every report.

ALL VOTERS vs DECIDED VOTERS ONLY vs DECIDED & LEANING VOTERS

In most if not all reports for Manitoba we will identify three sets of numbers: All Voters, Leaning & Decided voters and Decided Voters only.

All Voters - this is exactly what it sounds like. Every response including those voters which are undecided.

Decided Voters Only - The only difference is we exclude undecided voters and re-calculate the percentages.

Decided & Leaning Voters - In addition to voters who have a firm decision, we include voters that are ‘leaning’ a certain way.

EXAMPLES

Quito is polled and responds that he is voting for the Manitoba PCs. He will be included in all three sets of numbers as supporting the PCs.

David is polled and responds that he is Undecided. A follow-up question is asked, which way is he leaning? David responds he is leaning towards the NDP. He will be included in two sets of numbers: he will be included in All Voters as Undecided. He will be included in Decided and Leaning voters as NDP.

Rebecca is polled and responds she is Undecided. She is asked the follow up: which way is she leaning? She responds she is still Undecided. She will be included in one set of numbers: All voters as undecided.

COMPARING OUR WORK TO OTHER POLLING FIRMS

Most other polling firms will report either Decided or Decided & Leaning Numbers. It’s important to make sure you are comparing the right sets of numbers.

MARGINS OF ERROROur polls have a true margin of error. They are scientific because the sample is randomly selected.

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

Q: Do you call cell phones for your polls?A: Yes! We call cell phones for every poll and this is listed on our methodology statement.

Q: I would like to participate in your polls can you please call me?A: We select respondents randomly so we cannot specifically include you in surveys though there is always a chance you may be called.

Q: What are the results for my riding?A: Unless we are commissioned to conduct an independent riding poll we do not release results by riding. This is because the sample per riding is too small - it would be irresponsible for us to publish such results. If you live in Winnipeg you can see a general view of the race in your city by looking at the regional breakout tables.

Q: Why does your riding poll not match the riding projection from *insert website here*?A: A riding poll is just that - an independent survey of a riding. Riding projections by poll aggregators can be useful information in some contexts but they are not polls. In some cases the results will be roughly the same - in others it won’t and that’s OK. In our opinion a riding poll is more accurate than a riding projection and some poll aggregators will take riding polls into account and adjust their numbers.

Q: How can your poll be accurate if you are only polling *insert number of people here*?A: It would be impossible to survey everyone in Manitoba (nor would we want to). Our telephone surveys are scientific, by using a random sample of the population we can attach a margin of error to our results. We have some of the largest sample sizes in the industry. Many other firms use smaller sample sizes than the ones we use on a local, provincial and national level. We are comfortable with our standards that have been tested in the real world.

Q: The demographic weighting used is based on a 2011 census, is this still representative of the population? A: No, it is likely not in most cases. Although we use the latest census available, we also use our proprietary weighting which adjusts for the small variances in demographics.

Q: I would like to receive your polls in advance, can you e-mail them to me?A: Unless you work for a media organization unfortunately not. The best place to read Mainstreet poll results is the Winnipeg Sun. You can always check our website to see if a new poll has been released.

Q: We don't believe your polls, we disagree with them very strongly, are you biased? A: Yes, we are biased: towards accuracy. In every election we have polled, there have been those who doubt our results during the election, but none who doubt them on election day.

Q: How do I join the Mainstreet Research team?A: We are always on the look-out for talented and creative team members. You can send us your resume and cover letter and we will keep it on file. Resumes can be sent to careers@mainstreetresearch.ca. If you are a student we offer a paid summer internship every summer. Please check the jobs board of your university in the fall, we are no longer accepting applications for Summer 2016.

FOR MEDIA

EMBARGO LIST

We are happy to send journalists of relevant news organizations reports under embargo. When deciding who to accredit for our regional embargo list we consider publication schedule and the size of the media outlet. Please contact david@mainstreetresearch.ca to be included on our embargo list.

ATTRIBUTION

Please attribute ‘Mainstreet/Postmedia’ polls as such (Mainstreet Research for Postmedia, Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll etc.) and please identify the sponsor of any third party polls that are released.

INTERVIEW REQUESTS

Quito is happy to chat over the phone or in studio from Toronto/Ottawa about our poll results or the Manitoba election in general. To arrange an interview please e-mail quito@mainstreetresearch.ca

MARGINS OF ERROR

The Canadian authority on polling, the Market Research Intelligence Association (MRIA) does not allow non probability polls (opt in online panel) to publish a margin of error. Although many publish "probability equivalent" margin of error, it is not mathematically correct to do so.

INFOGRAM

We create dynamic graphs in Infogram that can be embedded. These interactive graphs are dynamic and resize for mobile and tablet. For example our standard graph contains buttons to display the results only for Winnipeg, Non-Winnipeg. They are branded ‘Mainstreet/Postmedia’ at the bottom right hand corner. The Infogram code(s) will be e-mailed out the morning of a release.

SCRIBD

We will host a copy of the report on Scribd shortly after release. You can embed this document so that readers are able to access the full report. The Scribd code will be e-mailed out on the morning of a release.

COLOUR CODES

We are often asked for the colour codes we use, please see them below!

#f78f23 #1a4a9a #da2127 #09aa4c

WHAT TO EXPECT IN MANITOBA

WEEKLY RELEASES

We will covering the entire 2016 Manitoba Election. At a certain point and time we will move into a weekly publication schedule. Issue questions will be selected to compliment work for our media partners at the Winnipeg Sun.

It’s important to us that we poll the election from beginning to end. Punditry aside, we will not prejudge the outcome of the election and the voters of Manitoba. That is why we have committed to poll from the beginning to the end and several times in between, and why regardless of the movement in horserace we will be looking at key issues affecting Manitoba residents.

MANITOBA PARTY

We have not received a formal communication from the Manitoba Party, regardless we continue to deliberate upon their potential inclusion in future polling.

The standard to be included in our surveys is to score outside the margin of error. We will be looking closely to see if other polling firms include the Manitoba Party in their surveys.

We will run select test dials during the campaign and a limited amount will include the Manitoba Party. We will keep an open mind on their potential inclusion.

FINAL POLL

We will release a final poll in the final week of the election campaign. Depending on the circumstances this may replace a weekly dial. We prefer not to release a poll immediately before Election Day but if there is significant movement will make a final release or share a final release with our media partner.

We will release a ‘post-mortem’ following the election to closely analyze the performance of our polling and the conclusions from this analysis will be incorporated into our future Manitoba work.

QUARTERLY POLLS

Upon the conclusion of the election we will continue to publish public polls in Manitoba once per quarter.

ALBERTA

First to call the NDP Majority and the most active pollster of the Alberta Election.

CALGARY FOOTHILLS

Most Accurate Pollster of Calgary Foothills- Correctly predicted a Wildrose Victory.

SUDBURY

Most Accurate Pollster of the Sudbury by election, correctly predicted a Liberal win.

CANADA

Only Pollster to predict a Liberal Majority. Most accurate on main party numbers.

© 2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

CONNECT WITH US: WEBSITEmainstreetresearch.ca

TWITTER @MainStResearch

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