Mainstreet - Manitoba February 16

7/24/2019 Mainstreet - Manitoba February 16

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MANITOBA[FEBRUARY 16, 2016]

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 1,825 Manitoba residents by Smart IVR on February 12016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 2.29%, 19 times of 20. Regional margins of error: Winnipeg: +/-3.24%; Rest of Manitoba: +/-3.24%; 19 timout of 20. Results were weighed by geography, age and gender based on the 2011 Cens

METHODOLOGY


2/15

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyrigh

The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republish

with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmed

PCs CONTINUE TO DOMINATE

February 16, 2016 (Toronto, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the PC Party continuing to l

n Manitoba with the Liberals and NDP tied for second. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of eof +/- 2.29%, 19 times out of 20.

The NDP and Liberals remain in a tie for second - within the margin of error said Quito Maggi, Presid

of Mainstreet Research. The number of undecided voters fell this week so the parties each made smgains.

Among Decided and Leaning Voters: PCs 51% (-1%), NDP 21% (+1%), Liberals 20% (-), Greens 7% (-2%)

One important change from our last poll is that Liberal voters are now as solid as NDP voters contin

Maggi. In our last poll 55% of Liberal voters said they were certain of their decision, thats now 64% upercentage points. We will be watching to see if this continues.

The race for second continues to be tight. In Winnipeg its the NDP who are in second, outside of it its Liberals. More or less weve seen no significant movement despite a number of announcements.

If these vote splits hold it will be to the PCs advantage. With these kind of vote splits across the provhe PCs would be guaranteed a large majority government, finished Maggi.

About Mainstreet ResearchMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levelsgovernment, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of puopinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in BriColumbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling fi

n several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the opolling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

-30-

Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - [email protected]


3/15

What Kind of Candidate

Will Wab Kinew Be?DavidValentin

magine bright lights. The premier of the province is

announcing a new star candidate. This guy is the realdeal. Beloved by the community everybody knows

him. There is talk instantly that he could be a futureeader of the party.

m talking, of course, about former Calgary police

chief Rick Hanson. Back in March of 2015, shortlybefore the provincial election was called in Alberta, itwas Premier Jim Prentice at the microphoneannouncing his new star.

We all know what happened to him.

Which leads us to another province, another premier,another star. The announcement that Wab Kinewwould seek the NDP nomination in Fort Rouge cameas a huge get for Manitobas NDP.

Make no mistake, Wab Kinew is a very impressivecandidate a star in every sense of the word. Andyet, it may not be enough.

For the NDP this is a win no matter what. If Wab

Kinew wins they will have denied Liberal leader RanaBokhari a seat in the legislature. If Kinew loses he willhave tied up precious Liberal resources. Bokhari willhave to spend extra time and money to battle Kinew.That will keep her away from other seats.

f Kinew wins he will be set up to run for theeadership of the Manitoba NDP, if he wants it.

But he might not win.

Star candidates are a curious thing in Canadianpolitics. For every shining star there are duds. In theast federal election sitting cabinet ministers lostheir seats. Former superstar MPs like Olivia Chow

couldnt make it back. Local NDP heroes in Atlantic

Canada were unceremoniously turfed.

Perhaps a better story is that of Winnipegs ownKevin Lameroux. A long-time and well known MLA

or the Manitoba liberals he made the leap to federalpolitics and surprised everyone by winning aby-election in Winnipeg North. He won by 813 votes.

Then in the Liberal killing fields of 2011 he somehow

managed to hang on, this time by just 44 vo

Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff lost his seat in election - it wasnt close. Kevin Lamoureux hung

But back to Wab Kinew - will he be a Kevin Lamreux or will he be a Rick Hanson?

Theres nothing wrong with Rick Hanson, by the whe did everything he was supposed to do.

I wasnt there but Im sure he campaigned hard,

in signs, knocked on doors, shook hands, and so

Im sure he had many, many volunteers, endoments and a talented campaign staff.

Mr. Hanson spent $87,461 on his campaign in CalgCross. The NDP candidate, Ricardo Miranda, sp$6,134.

Mr. Miranda won by 100 votes.

Sometimes you just cant overcome the desire

change. In 2015, PC candidates, no matter how wderful or hardworking or accomplished, became

endangered species in Alberta.

Perhaps Bokhari summed it up best in the terse line statement she released: ...A vote for W(Kinew) is a vote for Greg Selinger.

And so this the challenge for Kinew. It looks like,data tells us, the Selinger NDP are in a tough electo say the least. They are polling in second or t

but are essentially tied with the Liberals. They stto lose seats all over the province but especially o

side Winnipeg.

I have no doubt Kinew will work hard. He willgiven the very best campaign staff, his office wilfull of volunteers, there will be lots of signs, they

spend every penny - I get it. While that happBokhari will be on TV every day. It will be her debing Palister and Selinger. I wouldnt count her out

Both Bokhari and Kinew have challenges they need to overcome to be successful. Only one of thcan win. This election well see what kind of ca

date each of them can be.


4/15

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGERPC LED BY BRIAN PALLISTER

LIBERAL PARTY LED BY RANA BOKHARIGREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOMEUNDECIDED

SAMPLE

18-3418%39%

13%9%22%

152

35-4914%39%

20%6%21%

416

50-6417%41%

18%3%

22%

541

65+19%47%

13%3%17%

716

Fema17%40%

16%6%21%

983

Male17%42%

16%5%

20%

842

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGERPC LED BY BRIAN PALLISTERLIBERAL PARTY LED BY RANA BOKHARI

GREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOMEUNDECIDED

SAMPLE

Winnipeg20%34%17%7%

22%

913

Rest of MB11%52%

14%3%19%

912

NDP PC Liberal Green Undecided

Manitoba17%41%16%

6%21%

1825

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Jan 7 Jan 27 Feb 11


5/15

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support? (DECIDED OR LEANING)

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGER

PC LED BY BRIAN PALLISTERLIBERAL PARTY LED BY RANA BOKHARIGREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOMESAMPLE

18-3420%

52%15%13%132

35-4920%

47%26%7%368

50-6422%

51%22%4%481

65+23%

56%17%4%654

Fema22%

50%20%8%867

Male21%

52%20%7%768

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGERPC LED BY BRIAN PALLISTERLIBERAL PARTY LED BY RANA BOKHARIGREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOMESAMPLE

Winnipeg25%45%

21%9%818

Rest of MB

15%62%19%5%817

Manitoba

21%51%20%7%

1635

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Jan 7 Jan 27 Feb 11

NDP PC Liberal Green


6/15

And which party are you leaning towards voting for? (UNDECIDED ONLY)

NDP PC Liberal Green Undecided

9%

22%

9%

5%

54%


7/15

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Jan 7 Jan 27 Feb 11

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support? (DECIDED ONLY)

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGERPC LED BY BRIAN PALLISTER

LIBERAL PARTY LED BY RANA BOKHARI

GREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOME

Jan 2720%52%19%

9%

Feb 121%52%20%

7%

Jan 723%44%27%

6%


8/15

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?

NDP

StrongMight Change

Not Sure

67%

25%

7%

PC

Strong

Might ChangeNot Sure

77%

15%

7%

LIBERAL

StrongMight Change

Not Sure

64%

28%

8%


9/15

And who would be your second choice? [MIGHT CHANGE/NOT SURE ONLY]

PC VOTERS NDP VOTERS

LIBERAL VOTERS GREEN PARTY VOTERS

35%

41%

3%

21%

16%

54%

16%

14%

33%

52%

7%

8%

27%

9%

28%

35%


10/15

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rana Bokhari is handling her job as Liberal Leader?

STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVENOT SURE

18-34

16%24%12%8%

40%

35-49

10%28%21%4%38%

50-64

7%28%16%11%39%

65+

9%28%18%10%34%

Fema

10%25%17%8%

40%

Male

11%28%16%8%

36%

STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVE

NOT SURE

Winnipeg9%

30%17%

8%

35%

Rest of MB13%

21%15%8%

43%

Manitoba11%27%17%

8%

38%

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0 36%

23%

41%

38%

25%

38%

Jan 25 Feb 11

Approve Disapprove Not Sure


11/15

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Brian Pallister is handling his job as PC Leader?


18-34

27%17%14%21%20%

35-49

22%29%17%17%16%

50-64

21%35%15%16%13%

65+

28%31%19%14%8%

Fema

22%28%16%16%18%

Male

26%27%16%19%12%

Winnipeg21%27%18%18%

16%

Rest of MB30%29%13%16%

13%

Manitoba24%27%16%17%

15%


NOT SURE

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0 52%

31%

16%

51%

33%

15%

Jan 25 Feb 11



12/15

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Greg Selinger is handling his job as NDP Leader?


18-34

17%10%15%48%10%

35-49

9%21%20%44%6%

50-64

10%18%18%43%11%

65+

13%21%16%44%7%

Fema

12%19%16%43%11%

Male

12%15%18%48%6%


NOT SURE

Winnipeg13%21%18%41%

8%

Rest of MB12%11%16%52%

10%

Manitoba12%17%17%45%

9%

60

55

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0 29%

60%

11%

29%

62%

9%

Jan 25 Feb 11



13/15

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?

NDP led by Greg SelingerProgressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister

Liberal Party led by Rana Bokhari

Green Party led James BeddomeUndecided

And, which party are you leaning towards? [Undecided Only]


Liberal Party led by Rana BokhariGreen Party led James Beddome

Undecided

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will changeyour mind before the next election? [Decided Voters Only]

Strong SupporterMight Change Mind

Not Sure

And who would be your second choice?


Liberal Party led by Rana BokhariGreen Party led James Beddome

Undecided

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rana Bokhari is handling her job as Liberal Leader?Do you approve or disapprove of the way Greg Selinger is handling his job as NDP Leader?

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Brian Pallister is handling his job as Progressive ConservatLeader?

Strongly ApproveSomewhat Approve

Somewhat DisapproveStrongly Disapprove

Not Sure


14/15

ONLY WE

CALLED

THELIBERAL

MAJORITY

Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East

| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interviewwith a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Pub

Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such confidence, a weekbefore we voted.

Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 20in defiance of the majority of the polls.

His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanatiofor how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running

political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015


15/15

CONNECT WITH US: WEBSITE

mainstreetresearch.ca

TWITTER

@MainStResearch

FACEBOOK

fb.com/mainstresearch

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all thevels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canad

public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshotspublic opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Libgovernment in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet

been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoelection. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majogovernment in the 2015 federal election.

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Mainstreet - Manitoba February 16

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