Mainstreet - Manitoba February 22

7/24/2019 Mainstreet - Manitoba February 22

1/14

MANITOBA[FEBRUARY 23, 2016]

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 1,798 Manitoba residents by Smart IVR on Febru20th, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 2.31%imes out of 20. Regional margins of error: Winnipeg: +/-3.28%; Rest of Manitoba: +/-3.29 times out of 20. Results were weighed by geography, age and gender based on the 2

Census.

METHODOLOGY


2/14

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyrigh

The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republish

with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmed

MANITOBA STABLE AS ELECTION APPROACHES

February 23, 2016 (Toronto, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the PC Party continuing to l

n Manitoba with the Liberals and NDP tied for second. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of eof +/- 2.31%, 19 times out of 20.

As the Election Campaign draws nearer and nearer the Liberals are trending upwards slightly

essentially the race is much the same as weve found it earlier this month, said Quito Maggi, PresidenMainstreet Research. Undecided voters are now leaning almost evenly between the Liberals and PCs his may be a temporary blip. As a result among decided and leaning voters the Liberals are now in seco

place.

Among Decided and Leaning Voters: PCs 50% (-1%), NDP 21% (-), Liberals 23% (+3%), Greens 6% (-1%)

We polled a number of issues and found some interesting results. Most Manitobans strongly suppoecret ballot for unionization (66%) but they are split on other issues such as special tax powers

Winnipeg. 34% are in favour with 27% opposed but 39% arent sure - this means there is an opportunityboth those opposed and in favour of new tax powers to make their case.

When it comes to funding rapid bus transit almost half are in favour (48%) and more are opposed thaavour of continuing to fund a Helicopter for the Winnipeg police (42% disapprove, 38% approve),

finished.

About Mainstreet ResearchMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels

government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of puopinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in Bri

Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling fin several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the opolling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

-30-

Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, [email protected]

For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - [email protected]


3/14

The Return of

Greg Selinger QuitoMaggi

watched the new Manitoba NDP ad this morningwith some interest and after a few seconds I

ealized I have seen this ad before.

Back in 2011, then Premier Dalton McGuinty lookedke he was about to lose a looming election, the

polls were bad, his approval numbers were terrible,ound familiar? The ads that ran, called simplyLeadership, worked well. The humble Dalton

tood alone against a white background and talkedabout what his government had accomplished anded lettered references appear on the bottom right

of the screen.

Say what you will about Dalton McGuinty, but hiself-deprecating humour and endearing speakingtyle played very well, the Ontario Liberals won

another near majority in 2011 after what looked likea certain loss to the PCs.

mitation is the sincerest form of flattery they say,and the Manitoba NDP leader should be expecting

a nice note from Mr. McGuinty after airing thiscommercial. A carbon copy, right down to the fonts,

he positioning of the hands, and nearly identicalies.

t worked for Dalton McGuinty in 2011, but will it

work for Premier Selinger in 2016? Its too early toell yet, but there is one key difference is these adshat tells me its less likely to have any impact.

Both ads are visually clean, the narrative veryimilar, humble leaders who tell the viewer about

making tough decisions. Its a heart to heart, one on

one, honest conversation with voters, distractions.

The difference I notice right away is that Da

McGuinty uses the word I when talking about challenges he faces politically, he says I accthat, then goes on to say Ontario has done x

takes direct and personal ownership responsibility for the mistakes that have been maand then credits Ontario with the list accomplishments that splash across the screen.

Premier Selinger says we havent always gotteright in this ad. Why we instead of I? Maybemeans the NDP government? his cabinet? perh

the political advisors? Or the thousands of puservants who work for the Manitoba governmentan ad that features just a single person, the Prem

he says we havent always gotten it right, tsays I make decisions with your best interesmind and lists accomplishments and commitmecrediting we, this we I believe means the N

government, at least thats how it comes acrossme. So I make the decisions, but we havalways gotten it right, its inconsistent with narrative of the ad.

It might seem like such a small thing to point such subtle differences in essentially the same

But make no mistake that words matter.

I am willing to bet that this ad wont have desired effect. If I am wrong, I guess we will h

to eat a little crow on April 19th. Yup, that ma

perfect sense.


4/14

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGERPC LED BY BRIAN PALLISTER

LIBERAL PARTY LED BY RANA BOKHARIGREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOMEUNDECIDED

SAMPLE

18-3418%38%

13%7%

24%

162

35-4914%38%

21%4%23%

412

50-6416%38%

19%3%

24%

522

65+19%46%

14%3%18%

702

Fema17%39%

17%5%22%

961

Male16%40%

16%5%

23%

837

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGERPC LED BY BRIAN PALLISTERLIBERAL PARTY LED BY RANA BOKHARI

GREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOMEUNDECIDED

SAMPLE

Winnipeg20%33%18%6%

23%

891

Rest of MB11%50%

15%3%21%

907

NDP PC Liberal Green Undecided

Manitoba17%40%17%

5%22%

1798

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Jan 7 Jan 27 Feb 11 Feb 20


5/14

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support? (DECIDED OR LEANING)

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGER

PC LED BY BRIAN PALLISTERLIBERAL PARTY LED BY RANA BOKHARIGREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOMESAMPLE

18-3421%

50%18%12%133

35-4919%

46%30%5%355

50-6422%

49%25%3%466

65+23%

55%18%4%645

Fema22%

49%22%6%845

Male21%

50%23%6%754

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGERPC LED BY BRIAN PALLISTERLIBERAL PARTY LED BY RANA BOKHARIGREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOMESAMPLE

Winnipeg25%43%

24%8%795

Rest of MB

15%60%21%4%804

Manitoba

21%50%23%6%

1599

NDP PC Liberal Green

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55



6/14

And which party are you leaning towards voting for? (UNDECIDED ONLY)

NDP PC Liberal Green Undecided

9%

17%

15%

5%

55%


7/14

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support? (DECIDED ONLY)

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGERPC LED BY BRIAN PALLISTER

LIBERAL PARTY LED BY RANA BOKHARI

GREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOME

Jan 2720%52%19%

9%

Feb 1121%52%20%

7%

Jan 723%44%27%

6%

Feb 222%51%22%

6%

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55



8/14

Do you approve or disapprove of the province funding rapid bus transit?

APPROVEDISAPPROVENOT SURE

18-3446%35%20%

35-4945%39%16%

50-6453%34%14%

65+51%36%13%

Fema49%33%17%

Male48%38%14%

APPROVEDISAPPROVE

NOT SURE

Winnipeg47%36%

17%

Rest of MB

50%36%

14%

Manitoba48%36%

16%

Approve Disapprove Not Sure

48%

36%

16%


9/14

Do you approve or disapprove of new revenue tools for the City of Winnipeg, such as a city sales tax?


18-3436%24%40%

35-4935%26%39%

50-6430%29%40%

65+34%32%34%

Fema31%29%40%

Male37%26%37%

APPROVEDISAPPROVE

NOT SURE

Winnipeg36%28%

36%

Rest of MB31%

27%

42%

Manitoba34%27%

39%


34%

27%

39%


10/14


11/14

Do you approve or disapprove of a mandatory secret ballot for votesto approve or reject unionization in the workplace?


18-34

59%21%20%

35-49

66%17%17%

50-64

69%13%18%

65+

72%15%13%

Fema

64%15%21%

Male

67%19%14%

APPROVEDISAPPROVE

NOT SURE

Winnipeg64%

18%

18%

Rest of MB69%14%

17%

Manitoba66%

17%

17%


66%

17%

17%


12/14

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?

NDP led by Greg SelingerProgressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister

Liberal Party led by Rana Bokhari

Green Party led James BeddomeUndecided

And, which party are you leaning towards? [Undecided Only]

NDP led by Greg SelingerProgressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister

Liberal Party led by Rana BokhariGreen Party led James Beddome

Undecided

And do you approve or disapprove of the province funding rapid bus transit?Do you approve or disapprove of new revenue tools for the City of Winnipeg, such as a city sales tax

Do you approve or disapprove of funding the Winnipeg Police Helicopter?

Do you approve or disapprove of a mandatorysecret ballot for votes to approve or reject unionization in the workplace?

ApproveDisapprove

Not Sure


13/14

ONLY WE

CALLED

THELIBERAL

MAJORITY

Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East

| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interviewwith a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Pub

Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such confidence, a weekbefore we voted.

Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 20in defiance of the majority of the polls.

His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanatiofor how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running

political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015


14/14

CONNECT WITH US: WEBSITE

mainstreetresearch.ca

TWITTER

@MainStResearch

FACEBOOK

fb.com/mainstresearch

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all thevels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canad

public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshotspublic opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Libgovernment in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet

been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoelection. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majogovernment in the 2015 federal election.

Date post:	23-Feb-2018
Category:	Documents
Upload:	mainstreet
View:	216 times
Download:	0 times

Mainstreet - Manitoba February 22

Documents