Mainstreet - Manitoba April 7

8/18/2019 Mainstreet - Manitoba April 7

1/16


2/16

LIBERALS SLIDE, PCs LEAD AS ELECTION NEARS END

April 7, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds the Manitoba Liberals sliding while thePC party continues to lead the poll - now with their supporters more locked in than ever before. TheMainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.28%, 19 times out of 20.

We have seen a very poorly run Liberal campaign this election” said Quito Maggi, President of MainstreetResearch. “For a while now we’ve been wondering when a Liberal slide might occur. We thought it wouldake the televised debate for there to be signicant movement, but a series of missteps have now caughtp to the Liberal leader.”

Among Decided and Leaning Voters (province wide): PCs 50% (+5%), NDP 24% (+1%), Liberals 17% (-7),

Greens 9% (+1%)The Liberals have dropped candidates and are trying to be too clever by half. A candidate’s mangledemark about closing hospitals was labeled intentional, we were told it was in order to gain publicity. Afterrecent e-mail that appeared to be intended solely for Liberal candidates leaked to the press, we were told

t was meant to show the Liberals were transparent and open. We could continue to catalogue the misstepsere but why go on? The Liberals are now having their local candidates make platform announcements,iven the circumstances this isn’t a bad idea. Their silver lining is they are the top second choice of PC and

NDP supporters.”

This week we saw the Saskatchewan NDP wiped out - if support for the PC party in Winnipeg holds,Manitoba‘s NDP will meet the same fate. PC Party support is now stronger, 83% say they are locked in and

will now not switch their vote. That’s up 7% from our last poll. Meanwhile Liberal support is weaker thanefore and Liberal switcher favour the PCs slightly more than the PCs.”

Over the last few weeks we have been able to observe PC support in Winnipeg. We see no indication thatt is conned to a certain geographic area. PC support is wide and deep. The NDP are in an unenviableituation, there may not be much they can do, it’s now time to shore up as many of their incumbents as theyan and hope for major missteps from the PCs” he nished.

About Mainstreet ResearchMainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of

overnment, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of publicpinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British

Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rmn several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the onlyolling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

-30-

Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - [email protected]

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protectedby copyright. The information and/or data may onlybe rebroadcast or republished with full and propercredit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.


3/16

If the provincial electionwere held today,which party

would you support? (Manitoba)

UndecidedNDP PC Liberal Green

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Jan 7 Jan 27 Feb 11 Feb 20 Mar 12 Mar 19 Mar 29 Apr 5


4/16


would you support? (Winnipeg)


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40



5/16


would you support? (Rest of Manitoba)


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55



6/16


would you support?

PC

NDP

Liberal

Green

Undecided

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

Sample

Manitoba Winnipeg Rest of MB

PC

NDP

Liberal

Green

Undecided

Sample

PC

19%

39%

13%

7%

22%

1,844

24%

37%

11%

7%

21%

1,032

12%

44%

15%

6%

23%

812

17%

29%

18%

11%

24%

233

22%

39%

11%

6%

23%

399

17%

48%

10%

5%

20%

567

23%

44%

11%

2%

20%

645

19%

41%

10%

8%

22%

857

20%

38%

15%

5%

22%

987


7/16

And which party are youleaning towards voting for?

[Undecided Only]


6%

15%

9%

6%64%


8/16

DECIDED AND LEANING

NDP PC Liberal Green

5

0

5

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55



9/16

DECIDED AND LEANINGWINNIPEG


5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50



10/16

DECIDED AND LEANINGREST OF MANITOBA


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65



11/16


would you support?[DECIDED AND LEANING]

PC

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

21%

40%

25%

15%

207

28%

47%

17%

9%

335

21%

60%

12%

7%

496

28%

53%

14%

5%

572

23%

51%

15%

12%

770

25%

48%

20%

7%

837

NDP

PC

Liberal

Green

Sample

Manitoba Winnipeg Rest of MB

24%

50%

17%

9%

1,607

29%

46%

16%

9%

907

16%

55%

20%

9%

700

NDP

PC

Liberal

Green

Sample


12/16

Support Strength

StrongMight Change

Not Sure

83%13%4%

PC

StrongMight Change

Not Sure

63%27%9%

NDP

StrongMight Change

Not Sure

51%38%10%

Liberals

83%

13%

4%

63%

27%

9%

51%

38%

10%


13/16

Second Choice

Liberal Voters Green Party Voters

NDP VotersPC Voters

16%

42%9%

33%

24%

58%

11%

8%

30%

26%

12%

33%

12%

6%

33%

49%



14/16

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?

NDP led by Greg SelingerProgressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister

Liberal Party led by Rana BokhariGreen Party led James Beddome

Undecided

And which Party are you leaning towards voting for?


Liberal Party led by Rana BokhariGreen Party led James BeddomeUndecided

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,or is there a chance you will change your mind before Election Day?

Strong SupporterMight Change Mind

Don’t Know

And who would be your second choice?


Liberal Party led by Rana BokhariGreen Party led James Beddome

Undecided

SCRIPT


15/16

ONLY WECALLED

THELIBERAL

MAJORITY.

Mainstreet Research | 132−2255B Queen Street East| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

“I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because it’s an interviewwith a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public

Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such condence, a weekbefore we voted.

Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,in deance of the majority of the polls.

His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanationfor how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a

political campaign.” - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015


16/16

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all threelevels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadianpublic affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots ofpublic opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberalgovernment in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has

been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoralelection. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majoritygovernment in the 2015 federal election.

CONNECT WITH US: WEBSITEmainstreetresearch.ca

TWITTER@MainStResearch

FACEBOOKfb.com/mainstresearch

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