Montana Manufacturing: Issues & Outlook 2016 · Manufacturing Outlook 2016 2015...

MontanaManufacturing:

Issues & Outlook 2016

Todd A. Morgan, CF

Montana Manufacturers

Montana ManufacturingLabor Income by Sector

Employment:~23,430

Labor Income:~$1.2 billion

Sales:~$11.3 billion

Wood & Furniture

16%Metals12%

Food & Beverage

14%

Petroleum & Coal Products

17%

Other18%

Chemicals & Nonmetallic

Minerals13%

Machinery6%

Computers, Electronics & Appliances

4%

Sources: BEA-Dept of Commerce; and BBER estimates

Changes in Montana & U.S. Manufacturing Employment

‐12%

‐10%

‐8%

‐6%

‐4%

‐2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*

Montana

United States

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis *2015 estimated

Montana Manufacturing Output• Real value has increased longer term• $11.3 billion in 2014; 2015 probably lower• Highly influenced by petroleum products

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

3

6

9

12

15

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Billion

s of 2

015 Dollars

Montana Manufacturing ExportsAccount for8 to 10% oftotal output

Top export destinations:Canada – 45%

Korea – 9%China – 8%Japan – 5%Mexico – 5%Taiwan – 4%Belgium – 2%

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mill

ion

$

Sources: Census Bureau, wisertrade.org

Montana Manufacturing Exports

Wood Products & Furniture

4%Metals

8%Food &

Beverages10%

Petroleum & Coal Products

7%

TransportationEquipment

10%

Nonmetallic Minerals

8%

Machinery12%

Computers, Electronics

& Appliances

6%

Other7%

Chemicals31%

2014 total:$1.01 billion

Declining:ChemicalsMachinery

Petroleum prods.Transport equip.

Growing:Beverages

FoodWood prods.

Fabricated metals Sources: Census Bureau, wisertrade.org

Pending Trade AgreementsTrans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)

• 11 countries + U.S.

• Account for about 70% of MT exports

• Largest: chemicals, fuels, consumer goods

Transatlantic Trade & Investment Partnership (T-TIP)

• European Union + U.S.

• Account for about 12% of MT exports

• Largest: chemicals, high-tech instruments

2015-2016 Montana Manufacturers Survey

– annual survey– conducted in November– open-ended & multi-choice

questions– current & coming year– 184 firms participated– cooperation rate 96%

Property Tax & Montana Manufacturers

Which property tax class impacts your business most?

51% Class 8: business equipment

29% Class 4: land & improvements

9% don’t know

5% both/same

How have property taxes impacted your business?

45% significant negative impact/cost

33% none/neutral/minimal impact

13% just another expense/pass it on/plan for it

Property Tax & Montana Manufacturers

As a result of the 2015 re-appraisal?

46% increase 5% decrease

14% same 35% don’t know

Your firm’s property tax over the past 3 years?



Property taxes for 2016?



Major Issues for Montana Manufacturers

2015

• Labor, skilled workers: 36% of firms

• General economy, markets, competition, sales: 24%

2016

• Labor, skilled workers: 25% of firms.

• General economy, markets, competition, sales: 27%

0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70

All other

Machinery

Chemicals,petroleum & coal

Food & beverage

Wood, paper &furniture

All Manufacturing

Overall Outlook by Sector

2016

2015

Declining/Improving

Montana Forest Products 2015/2016

• U.S. homebuilding growth continues

• Strong dollar, weaker demand from China, interest rate hike, end of SLA = challenges to U.S. wood products industry

• Private & public timber availability is the major constraint for most Montana mills

o Private land ownership changes

o Many small, young trees in private forest inventory

o Federal forest management issues

0.35 0.5 0.65

Employment

Production

Profit

Sales

Overall

Montana Wood Products Outlook

20162015

Declining/Improving

0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

Montana

Lewistown

Kalispell

Butte

Bozeman

Billings

Missoula

Great Falls

Helena

Overall Outlook by City

2016

2015

Declining/Increasing

Lewis & Clark County ManufacturingLabor Income by Sector

Transportation Equipment

33%

Other Durable Goods

16%

Food & Beverage

12%

Fabricated Metals

5%

Wood & Furniture

7%

Printing5%

Other Nondurable

Goods24%

Labor Income:$48.5 million - 2014

Employment:995

Sources: BEA-REIS; Census Bureau; and BBER estimates

Lewis & Clark County Manufacturing

750

800

850

900

950

1,000

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Worker Earnings Employment

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

JobsMillion $

0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

Profit

Production

Sales

Employment

Overall

Helena Area Manufacturing Outlook

20162015

Declining/Improving

Cascade County ManufacturingLabor Income by Sector

Furniture & Wood

Products8%

Food & Beverages

42%

Other Durable Goods

19%

Printing6%

Other Non-durable Goods

29%


Employment:1,355


Cascade County Manufacturing

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

$45

$50

$55

$60

$65

$70

$75

$80



JobsMillion $

0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

Profit

Production

Sales

Employment

Overall

Great Falls & Havre Area Manufacturing Outlook

2016

2015

Declining/Improving

Missoula County ManufacturingLabor Income by Sector

Wood & Furniture

18%

Food & Beverage

19%

Other Durable Goods

41%

Chemicals16%


6%

Labor Income:$108.9 million – 2014

Employment:2,415

Sources: BEA-Dept of Commerce and BBER estimates

Missoula County Manufacturing

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500

2,600

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

$110

$120

$130



JobsMillion $

Ravalli County Manufacturing

950

1,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

$33

$34

$35

$36

$37

$38

$39



Million $ Jobs

0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

Profit

Production

Sales

Employment

Overall

Missoula Area Manufacturing Outlook

20162015

Declining/Improving

Yellowstone County ManufacturingLabor Income by Sector

Labor Income:$319 million - 2014

Employment:3,955



4%Fabricated

Metals13%

Food & Beverage

9%

Petroleum Products

55% Chemicals4%

Other Durable Goods

15%

Yellowstone County Manufacturing

3,000

3,200

3,400

3,600

3,800

4,000

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350



JobsMillion $

0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

Profit

Production

Sales

Employment

Overall

Billings Area Manufacturing Outlook

2016

2015

Declining/Improving

Gallatin County ManufacturingLabor Income by Sector


Employment3,436


Non-Metallic Minerals

10%Wood &

Furniture6%

Fabricated Metals15%

Computers, Electronics

& Appliances

13%

Other Durable Goods

33%

Food & Beverages

11%

Plastics & Rubber

4%


9%

Gallatin County Manufacturing

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160



JobsMillion $

0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

Profit

Production

Sales

Employment

Overall

Bozeman Area Manufacturing Outlook

20162015

Declining/Improving

Silver Bow County ManufacturingLabor Income by Sector


Employment:724


Wood Products

1%

Other Durable Goods

75%Fabricated Metals

3%

Food3%

Beverages13%


4%

Printing2%

Silver Bow County Manufacturing

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50



JobsMillion $

0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

Profit

Production

Sales

Employment

Overall

Butte Area Manufacturing Outlook

2016

2015

Declining/Improving

Flathead County ManufacturingLabor Income by Sector


Employment:3,277

Wood & Furniture

45%

Computers & Electronics

6%

Fabricated Metals10%Food &

Beverages4%


7%

Other Durable Goods

30%

Sources: BEA-REIS; Census Bureau

Flathead County Manufacturing

2,600

2,700

2,800

2,900

3,000

3,100

3,200

3,300

3,400

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200



JobsMillion $

0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

Profit

Production

Sales

Employment

Overall

Kalispell Area Manufactures Outlook

2016

2015

Declining/Improving

Fergus County Manufacturing

345

350

355

360

365

370

375

$10

$11

$12

$13

$14

$15

$16



JobsMillion $

0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

Profit

Production

Sales

Employment

Overall

Lewistown Area Manufacturing Outlook

2016

2015

Declining/Improving

Hill County Manufacturing

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0



JobsMillion $

0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

Profit

Production

Sales

Employment

Overall

Havre & Great Falls Area Manufacturing Outlook

2016

2015

Declining/Improving

Thank you!

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Date post:	15-Aug-2020
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Montana Manufacturing: Issues & Outlook 2016 · Manufacturing Outlook 2016 2015...

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