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National ICT Strategies Towards a Digital Economy Alexander Serbin August 28, 2018
National ICT Strategies Towards a
Digital Economy
Alexander Serbin
August 28, 2018
Every additional US$1 invested in ICT Infrastructure over time can yield up to US$5 in GDP growth by 2025
Increasing ICT Infrastructure Investment Additional 10% annually from 2016 to 2025，This equates to an accumulative
US$17.6 trillion in potential added GDP to the global economy by 2025.
US$17.6 trillion
(2016-2025)
2016
2025
2020
$1: $5
$1: $3.7
$1: $3
GCI：Mapping country’s transformation into a digital economy
Traditional Economy Digital Economy
The GCI provides a comprehensive and objective assessment of a country’s connectivity from both a national and business perspective,
and assesses the current status, future trends, and challenges associated with digital transformation. It quantifies the value that
connectivity generates for a country’s transformation into a digital economy, and serves as a reference for regional and national policy
makers.
79 Countries 95% GDP 84% Population
GCI: Focusing on economic digitization since 2014
Scope
Research theme
White paper
2014 1st release
New economic
barometer
2015 2nd release
Full national
assessment
2016 3rd release
Digital economy
model
25 nations
16 indicators
50 nations
38 indicators
50 nations
40 indicators
10 verticals
2017 4rd release
Economy impact
model
50 nations
40 indicators
http://www.huawei.com/minisite/gci/en/
GCI methodology matrix: 4 economic pillars by 5 technology
enablers
SUPPLY DEMAND EXPERIENCE POTENTIAL
Fundamental : e.g ICT laws, application, e-Government, R&D …
GCI Scoring Model
IOT
BIG DATA
CLOUD
DATA CENTERS
BROADBAND
5 T
ech
En
ab
lers
Country evaluation done based on 40 indicators
Supply Demand Experience Potential
Fundamentals
Broadband
Data Centers
Cloud
Big Data
IoT
ICT Investment
Telecom Investment
ICT Laws
International Internet
Bandwidth
Fiber
Optic
4G
Coverage
Data Center
Investment
Cloud Investment
Big Data
Investment
IoT Investment
App Downloads
Smartphone Penetration
eCommerce Transactions
Computer Households
Fixed
Broadband Subscriptions
Mobile
Broadband Subscriptions
Data Center Equipment
Cloud Migration
Analytics Data Creation
IoT Installed Base
E-Government Service
Telecom Customer Service
Internet Participation
Broadband
Download Speed
Fixed
Broadband Affordability
Mobile Broadband
Affordability
Data Center Experience
Cloud Experience
Big Data Experience
IoT experience IoT Potential
Big Data Potential
Cloud Potential
DC Potential
Mobile Potential
Broadband
Potential
Software
Developers
IT Workforce
ICT Patents
R&D
Expenditure
Most countries have embarked on the road to a digital
economy, but they are at different stages
Starters Adopters Frontrunners
110K
70K
60K
50K
40K
30K
20K
10K
0
80K
90K
110K
100K
15 25 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 803020GCI 2018 score
Avg.
Nom
inal
GD
P p
er
Capita 2
017
Ethiopia
ParaguayBotswana
Argentina
Turkey
Colombia Belarus
Brazil
Bahrain Greece
Malaysia
Estonia
China
PortugalItaly
United Arab Emirates
Luxembourg
IrelandNorway
Switzerland
United States
SingaporeSweden
DenmarkAustralia
Germany
France Japan United Kingdom
Finland
South Korea
Developing ICT is key driver for economic development
156 countries have released national
ICT development master plan
Industry 4.0 Internet PlusAdvanced Manufacturing 2.0
Singapore Smart Nation Digital Canada 150 Smart Digital Malaysia
Nigeria National
Broadband Strategy
Colombia Live Digital Connected Argentina
Source: ITU
A one-point increase in GCI
does the following for your economy
1 ptIncrease in GCI
2.1%Competitiveness
Innovation
2.2%
Productivity
2.3%
Countries are setting policies to encourage ICT
investment
http://www.huawei.com/minisite/gci/en/
Country 2018 rankings
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
United States
Singapore
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom
Denmark
Netherlands
Norway
Australia
Germany
New Zealand
Canada
78
75
73
71
70
68
67
65
64
63
62
62
South Korea
Japan 65
64
France 61
Belgium 61
17
18
19
20 Austria 60
Finland 68
Luxembourg 63
62
Ireland
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Spain
Portugal
UAE
China
Chile
Malaysia
Russia
55
52
53
51
48
48
46
31
32
33
34
36
37
38
39
Bahrain
Romania
Mexico
Colombia
Turkey
Peru
45
45
45
42
40
39
39
37
Czech Republic 50
Italy 50
South Africa
Thailand
Poland
35
42
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
Jordan
Egypt
Venezuela
Morocco
India
Algeria
Kenya
Ghana
Tanzania
Uganda
34
34
33
33
33
32
29
29
25
25
Vietnam 34
Indonesia 33
Nigeria 29
Estonia 54
Lithuania 52
Slovenia 51
Hungary 49
Slovakia 49
Croatia 46
Greece 46
Kuwait 45
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
56
57
55
Saudi Arabia 44
Belarus 44
Bulgaria 44
Brazil 43
Kazakhstan 42
Oman 42
Ukraine 41
Uruguay 41
Serbia 39
Argentina 38
Philippines 35
Lebanon 34
Ecuador 31
Botswana 29
Namibia 29
Paraguay 26
Bolivia
Pakistan
25
25
Bangladesh
Ethiopia
24
23
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
ADOPTERSFRONTRUNNERS STARTERSSCORE SCORE SCOREADOPTERS SCORE
5840
IoT-centric
AI + Big Data-centric
Cloud -centric
Datacenter-centric
Broadband-centric
15 10035 55 85
Focus continues to be on
data centers and
broadband investment
Cloud migration and
driving adoption continue
to be a focus
Focus continues to be on
big data and the drive
towards IoT adoption
No country has yet
reached this stage. big
data maturity
incorporated into smart
IoT
IoT
AI + Big
Data
Cloud
Data
Centers
Broad-
band
STARTERS ADOPTERS FRONTRUNNERS
Building a strong ICT infrastructure is the first step to
realizing effective economic transformation
Indicators of fastest growth : Broadband, big data, and
cloud computing
Indicators of farthest growth 3Yr CAGR
(Global Average)
Stage of development affected the technology choices a country has made
STARTERS ADOPTERS FRONTRUNNERS
4G Coverage
FTTHAnalytics Data Creation
Cloud Broadband Download
Speed
109%
35% 61%
27% 26%
13
5%
61
%
40
%
33
%
34
%
13
6%
62
%
46
%
28
%
27
% 61
%
39
%
37
%
34
%
28
%
Cloud IoT+ Cloud
ICT Transformation is Enabler for Digital Economy
Digital Economy
GDP Employment Social Expansion
ICT Investment Technology
Everything is Intelligent
Manufacturing RetailAgriculture Media FinanceEnergy
HealthcarePublic safety GovernmentTransportationEducationSmart City
Policies & Regulations Skills
The “Matthew Effect” – the digital divide becomes a digital chasm
GCI score
+2.8
+5.2
Starters
Adopters
Frontrunners
+6.0
26.629.4
40.0
45.2
60.166.1
20 30 40 50 60 70 80
2018 S-curve
2015 S-curve
Average scores 2015Score change
An expansion of the S-curve (GCI score vs. GDP) shows the widening inequality between Starters, Adopters, and Frontrunners
Average scores 2018
STARTERS ADOPTERS FRONTRUNNERS
Combination of policies and regulations boost BB roll-out
Power collaborationIreland
RoW admin.India
Fibre pre-installChina
Target settingEuropean Commission
Open accessSpain
Industrial synergyGermany
Universal serviceUK
Gov. platformSingapore
Tax incentiveMalaysia
Tax free & subsidySaudi Arabia
National BB strategies can be summarized in six categories
NBN target setting Subsidy Tax incentive Open AccessRoW admin.Utility synergy
EU countries
Malaysia
Saudi Arabia
Singapore
China
India
Ireland
Germany
Imperatives for Digital Transformation Planning
ICT Infrastructure
ICT Policy
ICT Talent
Governments: Continuously enhance investment in digital
infrastructure, especially the expansion of broadband coverage, and
the adoption of cloud technology to ensure fair competition and
inclusive growth in their own economies throughout the global
digitization process
Governments: Develop National Broadband Strategy or ICT White papers
to formulate and realize national strategy, unlock digital potential and cover
the gap in digital access between cities and rural area.
Simultaneously support demand services (e-government, e-health, e-
education) and supply (availability of the network and data services)
Decrease taxation for ICT industry and instead provide more obligations to
operators regarding network coverage and performance
Governments: Work with scholars, technology providers, as well as
education and labor departments to ensure that digital resources are
more widely and readily accessible. Improve the digital knowhow of
specific subsets of the workforce, and cultivate a group of
exceptional talent that is well positioned to meet future needs
Summary:
• Developing ICT is not a target, it is a tool.
• Investment in ICT development is the most effective way to develop digital national
economy.
• Operators are not “cash cows”, they are “Enablers” for digital transformation.
• Don’t “kill” ICT industry by taxes, instead stimulate network access development
• Building 4G (LTE) coverage the most effective way to develop national broadband
coverage for developing countries
• Active role of government is crucial for successful ICT development
• Huawei GCI methodology can help for developing National Broadband Strategy or
ICT White Papers
