Outlook for U.S. shale oil and gas · U.S. shale gas leads growth in total gas production through...

www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

Outlook for U.S. shale oil and gas

National Capital Area Chapter U.S. Association for Energy Economics January 23, 2014 | Washington, DC By Adam Sieminski, EIA Administrator

Six key plays account for nearly all recent growth in oil and natural gas production

National Capital Area Chapter - USAEE January 23, 2014 2

Source: EIA, Drilling Productivity Report

Key insights on U.S. drilling productivity and production trends


•  The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil production from shale and other tight resources

•  The number of wells drilled nationwide that produce both oil and natural gas increased from 37% in 2007 to 56% in 2012

•  Higher drilling efficiency and new well productivity, rather than an increase in the rig count, have been the main drivers of recent production growth

•  Steep legacy production decline rates are being offset by growing production from new wells

•  Six shale plays account for nearly 90% of domestic oil production growth and virtually all domestic natural gas production growth over the last few years

•  The Bakken and Eagle Ford plays account for about two-thirds of oil production growth; the Marcellus play accounts for about three-quarters of natural gas production growth

The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil production from shale and other tight resources

4

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Eagle Ford (TX) Bakken (MT & ND) Spraberry (TX & NM Permian) Bonespring (TX & NM Permian) Wolfcamp (TX & NM Permian) Yeso-Glorieta (TX & NM Permian) Niobrara-Codell (CO, WY) Haynesville (LA & TX) Marcellus (PA & WV) Woodford (OK) Granite Wash (OK & TX) Austin Chalk (LA & TX) Monterey (CA)

U.S. tight oil production million barrels of oil per day

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Marcellus (PA & WV) Eagle Ford (TX) Haynesville (LA & TX) Barnett (TX) Fayetteville (AR) Woodford (OK) Bakken (ND) Antrim (MI, IN, & OH) Rest of US 'shale'

U.S. dry shale gas production billion cubic feet per day

Sources: EIA derived from state administrative data collected by DrillingInfo Inc. Data are through December 2013 and represent EIA’s official tight oil & shale gas estimates, but are not survey data. State abbreviations indicate primary state(s).

National Capital Area Chapter - USAEE January 23, 2014

U.S. crude oil and natural gas production is up dramatically since 2010 and will continue to grow rapidly; this has strategic implications for the United States

•  Refinery operations/investment

•  Logistics infrastructure investment

•  Exports of petroleum products

•  Exports of crude oil and natural gas (LNG)

•  Operation of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

5 National Capital Area Chapter - USAEE January 23, 2014

U.S. natural gas prices remain well below crude oil prices

6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

energy spot prices 2012 dollars per million Btu

Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release

History Projections 2012

Henry Hub spot price


Brent crude oil spot price

2018 2040

Ratio: 7.1

Oil to gas price ratio:

3.4

Ratio: 3.2

U.S. shale gas leads growth in total gas production through 2040 to reach half of U.S. output

7

U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Associated with oil Coalbed methane

Tight gas

Shale gas

Alaska Non-associated offshore

Non-associated onshore

Projections History 2012


billion cubic feet per day

8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2005 2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet


Projections History

Industrial*

Electric power

Commercial

Residential

Transportation**

11.2

4.1

1.7

11.0

3.6

9.1

4.2

0.7

8.5

2.9

*Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel **Includes pipeline fuel

U.S. natural gas consumption growth is driven by electric power, industrial, and transportation use


U.S. manufacturing output and natural gas use grows with low natural gas prices, particularly in the near term

9

manufacturing natural gas consumption quadrillion Btu



0

4

8

12

16

20

24

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2010 2025 2040 Aluminum Glass

Iron and steel

Paper

Food

Refining and related

Bulk chemicals

Other

Metal based


durables

manufacturing

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

U.S. natural gas use in the transportation sector grows rapidly with the largest share in freight trucks

10

natural gas use by mode trillion Btu



Freight trucks

Buses

Freight rail and marine Light-duty vehicles

22%


Approximate crude oil equivalent, (thousand barrels per day) 2040

Freight trucks Freight rail and marine Buses Light-duty vehicles

290 71 38

9

U.S. natural gas imports and exports trillion cubic feet per year

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Alaska LNG exports

Pipeline exports to Mexico

Pipeline exports to Canada

Lower 48 states LNG exports

Pipeline imports from Canada

LNG imports


11

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25


5.4 tcf of exports (14.8 bcf/day)

2.0 tcf of imports (5.4 bcf/day)

U.S. natural gas gross exports exceed 5 tcf in 2025

Projections History 2012 2025


U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas in the near future

12

U.S. dry natural gas trillion cubic feet per year



-10

0

10

20

30

40

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040


Consumption

Domestic supply

Net exports

100

75

50

25

0

-25


Growing tight oil and offshore crude oil production drive U.S. output close to historical high

13

U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day


0

2

4

6

8

10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Tight oil

Alaska

Other lower 48 onshore

Lower 48 offshore



U.S. maximum production level of 9.6 million barrels per day in 1970

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

U.S. transportation sector motor gasoline demand declines, while diesel fuel accounts for a growing portion of the market

14

transportation energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu




59% Motor gasoline

Jet fuel

CNG/LNG

12% 13% 3%

44%

31%

3% 4% Other*

Diesel 22%

2030

47%

13% 3%

30%

1%

2040

Ethanol 4% 5%

5%

*Includes aviation gasoline, propane, residual fuel oil, lubricants, electricity, and liquid hydrogen

U.S. petroleum product imports and exports million barrels per day

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Other petroleum product imports

Distillate exports

Motor gasoline exports

Other petroleum product exports

Distillate imports

Motor gasoline imports



U.S. maintains status as a net exporter of petroleum products


Total petroleum product net exports

U.S. dependence on imported liquids declines, particularly in the near term

16

U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day


0

5

10

15

20

25

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Consumption

Domestic supply

Net imports 40%

32%


60%


25%

2016 2040

U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions remain below the 2005 level throughout the projection period

17

carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040



Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are 9% below the 2005 level in 2020 and 7% below the

2005 level in 2040.

Top ten countries with technically recoverable shale resources

Shale oil rank country billion barrels

1 Russia 75

2 United States 58

3 China 32

4 Argentina 27

5 Libya 26

6 Venezuela 13

7 Mexico 13

8 Pakistan 9

9 Canada 9

10 Indonesia 8

World total 345

Shale gas rank country trillion cubic feet

1 China 1,115

2 Argentina 802

3 Algeria 707

4 United States 665

5 Canada 573

6 Mexico 545

7 Australia 437

8 South Africa 390

9 Russia 285

10 Brazil 245

World total 7,299

Note: ARI estimates U.S. shale oil resources at 48 billion barrels and U.S. shale gas resources at 1,161 trillion cubic feet. Source: United States: EIA and USGS; Other basins: ARI.


Reproducibility of shale development may have limits

Many factors support production from U.S. shale resources that do not exist in many other countries:

•  Resource quality and geologic distribution details matter •  Major private ownership of subsurface mineral rights, often by

surface owners, provides a strong incentive for development •  Availability of many independent operators and supporting

contractors with critical expertise and advanced technology •  Pre-existing gathering and pipeline infrastructure •  Public acceptance of hydraulic fracturing as well as related

activities, including transportation of material, and availability and disposal of water/wastewater; population density


Geopolitical implications of shale resources

•  Shale oil is both light and sweet — the rapid growth in its supply has implications for crude oil pricing relationships, the value of different refinery configurations, refinery output slates, and the correspondence between SPR holdings and U.S. crude imports

•  China’s success in shale development and its future LNG imports (and coal use) are inversely related

•  Russia’s share of Europe’s gas market could be reduced by increased European shale production

•  High volumes of shale oil production, with other drivers, could significantly diminish the market share and pricing power of OPEC producers

•  Shorter lead times for the ‘manufacturing’ model of production from shale resources may reduce price volatility (over an extended period) compared to the historical ‘exploration/development’ model for conventional resources National Capital Area Chapter - USAEE January 23, 2014 20

OPEC countries now account for most unplanned outages


estimated unplanned crude oil production outages thousand barrels per day

Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2014

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Jan 2012 Jul 2012 Jan 2013 Jul 2013

Other Non-OPEC

Syria

Sudan/S. Sudan

Iraq

Nigeria

Libya

Iran

Non- OPEC

OPEC

China is now the world’s largest net oil importer


net imports for China and the United States millions of barrels per day

Note: Net oil imports are defined as total liquid fuels consumption less domestic production. Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, January 2014

0

2

4

6

8

10

Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15

Forecast History

China net imports

United States net imports

Jan-14

U.S. liquids (petroleum) production projected to outpace both Saudi Arabia and Russia in 2014

Liquids (petroleum) production, 2014 (million barrels per day)

United States Saudi Arabia Russia

Crude oil 8.5 10.0 10.3

NGLs 2.5 1.8 0.8

Biofuels + 1.0 0 0

Refinery gain 1.1 0.1 0.1

Total (mmbl/d) 13.1 11.9 11.2

Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook; International Energy Outlook


There are many issues that cause uncertainty…

•  Unresolved long-term effects of economic issues in the United States, Europe, and China, and their impacts on demand

•  Social unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, and the potential for unrest elsewhere, and its impacts on supply

•  The timing of Japan’s full recovery from the impacts of the 2011 nuclear disaster at Fukushima

•  Global shale gas and shale oil production potential and OPEC market share decisions

•  Changing policies and regulations

•  Changing consumer preferences and technological breakthroughs

24


For more information


U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov

Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo

Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo

International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo

Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer

Today in Energy | www.eia.gov/todayinenergy

State Energy Profiles | http://www.eia.gov/state

Drilling Productivity Report | http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/

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