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Commi'eeDr.ThomasSeagerChair,AdvisorMembersDr.SusanClarkDr.Sco'Clou;erDr.ErikFisher
HumanResilienceandDevelopmentinCoupledSocial,Ecological,&TechnicalSystems:
AHolis(cApproachtoCri(calInfrastructure
JohnE.Thomas,MSEE,MBAPhDStudent,ResearchAssociate
22April2016
SustainableEngineeringandtheBuiltEnvironment
PhD.ProposalDefense
CriEcalInfrastructure
2
HumanResilience
HumanDevelopment
Bio-,psycho-,socio-,environmental,technical,cultural,economic…systemsofsystems,ecologiesandscales!
Ac;onsBehaviorsOutcomesAr;facts
AgencyInten;onMo;va;on
Photo:FelixPharandDeschenes
3(LarryDowning/Reuters-Corbis,2011)
CoastGuardCommandantThadAllen
PresidentGeorgeBush
NewOrleansMayorRayNagin
HurricaneKatrinaAresiliencefailure…
“asifnoonewasincontrol”
(Westrum,2005)
4
PPD-21(PPD21,2013)
Na;onalInfrastructureProtec;onPlan,2013
“U.S.effortsshalladdressthesecurityandresilienceinanintegrated,holisEcmannertoreflectthisinfrastructure’sinterconnectednessandinterdependency.”
èWrongaboutholisEc.èLeNoutthepeople!
DarnellEarley,FlintEMPhoto:ZackWi'man/AP
Photo:RyanGarzaDetroitFreePress
Criminalchargesfiledagainst3governmentemployees 4/20/16
ProposiEon(s)
Photo:FelixPharandDeschenes
Resilienttechnologyrequiresresilientpeople
Resilientpeoplerequireresilienttechnology
SAAL?
?
7Photo:FelixPharandDeschenes
ResearchQuesEons
What?Theore=cal • Rela;onships,proper;es,&characteris;cs?
How?Conceptual • Impact,improve,assess,&measure?
Why?Opera=onal • Frameworks,heuris;cs,tools?
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SETSResilienceFrameworkKG:rcf/wintegra;ngm/s&s-t-pRQ:HowtodefineresilienceInfrastructureproblems?SWWC:undefined
HolisEcResilienceResearchKG:inconsistentdefini;on,lackoff/wRQ:Whatisholis;cresilienceresearch?SWWC:Myriadofdefini;ons,disciplines,concepts,&applica;ons
HumanresilienceKG:HR&CASlikeinfrastructureRQ:Rela;onships?Linkage?SWWC:Peopledesign,operate,andmanageinfrastructure
P4:HumandevelopmentKG:HD&CASlikeinfrastructureRQ:Rela;onships?Linkage?SWWC:Alignroles,enhancer&d,predictors
• Holis;cframework• Top20papersassessed• Epistemologicalindex
• SAALprocesses• Resilientinfrastructure
problemdefini;on.• Heuris;c-Litreview
• Linkinghumanresiliencew/SAAL
• Linkinglevelsw/SAAL• LinkingR&Dw/SAAL
Contribu;ons
P1
P2
P4
P3
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Nolinkageforperspec;vesindisparatedisciplines:engineering&psychology
Confusion&misinterpreta;onsamongdisciplines(Brand&Jax,2007)
99P2:Framework P3:HumanResilience P3:DevelopmentP1:IntegralResilience
1010P2:Framework P3:HumanResilience P3:DevelopmentP1:IntegralResilience
Exteriorprocesses
InteriorproperEes
Psychology• Child• Adult• Social• Developmental
Psychology• Child• Adult• Behavioral• Developmental
Engineering&TechnologicalSystems
--Whatinterior?--
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IntegralMapofHumanPerspecEves
P2:Framework P3:HumanResilience P3:DevelopmentP1:IntegralResilience
Adapted(Wilber,2000)
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Integralmapof20mostcitedarEcleswithresilienceinEtle:1900-2015
P2:Framework P3:HumanResilience P3:DevelopmentP1:IntegralResilience
(Thomas,2016)
ChildPsychology
AdultPsychology
4
13
4 4
1
1
1
4
2Technology
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
Q1-UL Q2-LL Q3-UR Q4-LR Total Possible
40.0%
0.0%
35.0%
50.0%
31.3%
• Sensing—monitorsystemsstatevariables• AnEcipaEng—imaginingpossiblestateoutcomes• AdapEng—changingstatevariables• Learning—differen;ate,integrate,&createknowledgeinformingsystembehaviors
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Individual&GroupResilienceAc=ons,behaviors,&ar=facts
(Park,Seager,Rao,Conver;no,&Linkov2013)(Hollnagel,Paries,Woods,&Wreathall2013)(Linkov,Eisenberg,Bates,Chang,Cover;no,Allen,Flynn,Seager2013)
Social-technicalResilienceEnablingProcesses
P1:IntegralResilience P2:Framework P3:HumanResilience P3:Development
ResilienceSocio-TechnicalProcesses
Outcomes
Sensing An;cipa;ng Adap;ng Learning
(Thomas,2016)
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Stressors/Shocks
Vulnerabilityfactors
Protec;vefactors (+/-)
Ecological
Technical
Social SystemsofSystems
Outcomes
ResilienceSocio-TechnicalProcesses
An;cipa;ng Adap;ngSensing Learning
ResilienceConceptualFramework
P1:IntegralResilience P2:Framework P3:HumanResilience P3:Development
(Thomas,2016)
Context
Boundarycondi;ons
Exogenous
Endogenous
Domains
• 9Components• Scorecard
Space
TimeMeaning
Dimensions
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SocialEcologyofInfrastructureResilience
Adapted(Masten,2010;Bronfenbrenner,1979)
Areaoffocus
PsychologicalSystems
BiologicalSystems
P1:IntegralResilience P2:Framework P3:HumanResilience P3:Development
Space
TimeMeaning
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PVSO• P=Protec;vefactors• V=Vulnerabilityfactors• S=Stressors/Shocks• O=Outcomes
Adapted:(Esbjörn-Hargens,Zimmerman,2009)
Integralmapofcoupledsocialandtechnicalsystems
PVSOPVSO
PVSO PVSO
P1:IntegralResilience P2:Framework P3:HumanResilience P3:Development
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LinkingHumanResiliencewithInfrastructure
(Thomas,2016)
ResilienceSocio-TechnicalProcesses
Outcomes
Cogni;ve Emo;onal Behavioral
ResilienceProtec;veFactors
Sensing An;cipa;ng Adap;ng Learning
P1:IntegralResilience P2:Framework P3:HumanResilience P3:Development
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CogniEve(Func;onality)
MoralMaturity
CogniEve(Complexity)
Maturity(Ego/Self)
Leadership(Ac;onLogic)
ValueSystems
HumanDevelopmentStageModels
WhatamIawareof? WhoamI? WhatshouldIdo?
WhatdoIcareabout?
Adapted:(Wilber,2006)
P1:IntegralResilience P2:Framework P3:HumanResilience P4:Development
Space
TimeMeaning
Whyego-development?-Stagesofmeaning-making-Interpretexperience-Shapesworldviews,perspec;ves-Informsreasoning&behavior-Correlateswithresilience-Enhancedpredictorsofoutcomes-Established&validatedtools,
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Survivor Socialized Specialist Independent Rela;ve Integra;ve Construct
%Sample(n=4,510)
Conven;onal Post-conven;onal
1st;er 2nd;er
Ego-developmentStages&AcEonLogics
36.5%
29.7%
11.3%
4.9%
ResearchfocusMeaning-makingsystems
(Cook-Greuter,1999)
P1:IntegralResilience P2:Framework P3:HumanResilience P4:Development
66.2% 16.2%
44.3% 36.0% 13.7% 6.0%
80.3% 19.7%
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!!Stage—Cook&Greuter,!!(Torbert!)!!!!!!!![Stage!no.]!
!Sensing!
!Anticipating!
!Adapting!
!Learning!
Conventional* * *Specialist!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!![3/4]!(Expert)!
!!
! ! ! !
Independent!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!![4]!(Achievers)!!!
! ! ! !
Post-conventional* * *Relative!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!![4/5]!(Individualist)!!!
! !!
! !
Integrative!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!![5]!(Strategists)!!!
! ! ! !
!!
ResilientHumanDevelopment
P1:IntegralResilience P2:Framework P3:HumanResilience P4:Development
Cogni;ve Emo;onal Behavioral
ResilienceProtec;veFactors
Sensing An;cipa;ng Adap;ng Learning
(Cook-Greuter,1999;Torbert,2004)
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Social-technicalResiliencePsychograph
Sensing An;cipa;ng Adap;ng Learning
Conven;onal
Pre-conven;onal
Post-conven;onal
P1:IntegralResilience P2:Framework P3:HumanResilience P4:Development
ProposiEons
Photo:FelixPharandDeschenes
Resilienttechnologyrequiresresilientpeople
Yes,and…Resilientpeoplerequireresilienttechnology
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JohnnyThomas,MSEE,MBA
Resilience,Simula;onforWater,Power&RoadwayNetworks,NSFGrantNo.1441352ThismaterialisbaseduponworksupportedbytheNa=onalScienceFounda=on(NSF)undergrantNo.1441352.Anyopinions,findings,conclusions,orrecommenda=onsexpressedinthismaterialarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheNSF.
ThankYou
IntegralResilience.org
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References
• Brand,F.,&Jax,K.(2007).FocusingtheMeaning(s)ofResilience:ResilienceasaDescrip;veConceptandaBoundaryObject.EcologyandSociety,12(1).Retrievedfromh'p://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol12/iss1/art23/ES-2007-2029.pdf
• Bronfenbrenner,U.(1979).Ecologyofhumandevelopment.Cambridge,MA:Harvard.• Cook-Greuter,S.(1999).Postautonomousegodevelopment:Astudyofitsnatureandmeasurement(Doctoraldisserta;on).RetrievedfromProQuest
Disserta;onsandThesesdatabaseh'p://search.proquest.com/docview/304503009?accoun;d=8203• Esbjörn-Hargens,S.(2010).AnOverviewofIntegralTheory.InIntegralTheoryinAc=on:Applied,Theore=cal,andConstruc=vePerspec=vesontheAQAL
Model(pp.33–61).StateUniversityofNewYorkPress.• Esbjörn-Hargens,S.,Zimmerman,M.(2009).IntegralEcology,Uni=ngMul=plePerspec=vesontheNaturalWorld.IntegralBooks.• Hollnagel,E.,Paries,J.,David,D.,&Wreathall,J.(2011).ResilienceEngineeringinPrac=ce:AGuidebook.Ashgate.• Linkov,I.,Eisenberg,D.a.,Plourde,K.,Seager,T.P.,Allen,J.,&Ko',A.(2013).Resiliencemetricsforcybersystems.EnvironmentSystemsandDecisions,
33(4),471–476.doi:10.1007/s10669-013-9485-y• Masten,A.,&Obradovic,J.(2010).Disasterprepara;onandrecovery:Lessonsfromresearchonresilienceinhumandevelopment.EcologyandSociety,
13(1).Retrievedfromh'p://ibcperu.org/doc/isis/8553.pdf• Park,J.,Seager,T.P.,Rao,P.S.C.,Conver;no,M.,&Linkov,I.(2013).Integra;ngRiskandResilienceApproachestoCatastropheManagementin
EngineeringSystems.RiskAnalysis,33(3),356–67.doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01885.x• PPD21(2013).Presiden=alPolicyDirec=ve/PPD-21.• Torbert,B.,Cook-Greuter,S.,Fisher,D.,Foldy,E.,Gauthier,A.,Keeley,J.,…Tran,M.(2004).Ac=onInquiry:Thesecretof=melyandtransforming
leadership.Berre'-KoehlerPublishers.• U.S.HomelandSecurity.(2013).Na=onalInfrastructureProtec=onPlan2013.• Westrum,P.R.(2005).AllCoherenceGone :NewOrleansasaResilienceFailure.In2ndsymposiumonresilienceengineering.Juan-les-Pins,France.• Wilber,K.(2001).ATheoryofEverything:Anintegralvisionforbusiness,poli=cs,science,andspirituality.ShambhalaPublica;ons.• Wilber,K.(2006).IntegralSpirituality.IntegralBooks.
