Frank Rijsberman, CEO CGIAR Consortium, November 2, 2012

Hunger and food security

in the 21st century

Overview

• Food Security: the greatest challenge facing humanity in coming decades

• Sustainable intensification: growing more food with less land and water

• Promising science

• CGIAR results and impacts

Shenggen Fan | December 2011 Source: von Grebmer et al. 2011

2011 Global Hunger Index

GHI components: • Proportion of undernourished

• Prevalence of underweight in children

• Under-five mortality rate

Prevalence of Micronutrient Deficiencies

Deficiencies in:

• Iron

• Vitamin A

• Zinc

Source: HarvestPlus 2011

Food Insecurity and Undernutrition

Remain Persistent: 850M hungry people

20 countries have alarming or

extremely alarming levels of

hunger

Inflation-adjusted prices of maize, wheat, rice, soybeans, and oil 1990–2011

Source: IFPRI

Food Price Spikes put Food Security

back on the agenda

Credit: FoEI / ATI - Jason Taylor

BIDCO acquires

26,500 hectares for a

palm oil plantation

in Uganda,

displacing

thousands of

smallholder farmers

Land Grab in Africa: 30 million ha

Development of semi-dwarf, high-yield, and disease-resistant varieties, 1960s-70s

Increased fertilizer use

Massive investment in irrigation

CIM

MY

T

Green Revolution: Intensification in Asia

Decades of cheap & plentiful food

IR56

(No Salt)

IR56

(EC 24 )

O.

coarctata

(EC 24)

F1 IR56 x O.

coarctata

(EC 24)

BC1 IR56 x O. coarctata//IR56

(EC 24)

Transfer of natural salt tolerance from Oryza coarctata a wild species that grows well in brackish water

15 years of crossing produced 1 viable plant!

Global Cereal Yield Trends, 1966-2009

Year

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Gra

in y

ield

(t

ha

-1)

1

2

3

4

5

Corn yield

slope = 64 kg ha-1 y

-1

Rice yield

slope = 53 kg ha-1 y

-1

Wheat yield

slope = 40 kg ha-1 y

-1

corn: 2.8%

rice: 2.9%

wheat: 2.9%

1966

corn: 1.3%

rice: 1.3%

wheat: 1.4%

2009

(~1 bu ac-1 y-1)

Source: FAOSTAT

Year

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Gra

in y

ield

(t

ha

-1)

0

2

4

6

8

R.Korea

China

Indonesia

India

Rice

Year

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0

2

4

6

8

Year

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

0

2

4

6

8

10

12Wheat Maize

China

India

Northwest Europe

Brazil

China

USA-irrigated

USA-rainfed

Plateau in Yields of Major Grains

Stagnating yields for:

• rice in Korea, Japan, California and China

• wheat in northwest Europe, Great Plains USA

• maize in China, France, Italy and irrigated maize in the USA

For food prices to remain constant, annual

yield gains would have to increase

Diseases

Climate

change

BreedingAgronomy

Projected demand by 2050 (FAO)

Wo

rld

-wid

e a

ve

rag

e y

ield

(to

ns h

a-1

)

Linear extrapolations of current trends

Water, nut rient &

energy scarcity

Potential effect of climate-change-induced heat stress on today’s cultivars (intermediate CO2 emission scenario)

Year

• First concerns: late 1990s

• The more we delay investments, the steeper the challenge

• From 1.6% to 2.4% for maize

• From 0.9% to 1.5% for rice

• From 1.1% to 2.3% for wheat

• On essentially the same land area, with less water, nutrients, fossil fuel, labor and as climates change

Our Ability to Grow Food is at risk

From an environmental point of view a 2 °C increase

equals a difference of 440 masl and major shifts of

crops to new areas

Coffee in

Columbia

Humanity’s Greatest Challenge

CIA

T, N

.Pa

lme

r

UN

, K

.Pa

rk

CIA

T, N

.Pa

lme

r

CIA

T, N

.Pa

lme

r

Producing 70% more food by

2050,

without destroying the environment

• 75% from land already in use

• By small-scale farmers,

majority women

• Where the food is consumed

• In a climate smart way

CIA

T, N

.Pa

lme

r

Sustainable Intensification

A strategic partnership dedicated to advancing science to address the central development challenges of our time:

4 Objectives:

• Reducing rural poverty

• Improving food security

• Improving nutrition and health

• Sustainably managing natural resources .

CGIAR Consortium

CGIAR Centers and Locations

2012: $850M, 8900 staff, 50 countries

Crop yield gap - Rice

• IRRI, ideal conditions

3 crops of 7 t/ha: 21t/ha/yr

• Philippines, irrigated: 2 crops of 4 t/ha: 8 t/ha/yr

• Africa, upland rice: 1 crop of 2 t/ha 2 t/ha/yr

WP (estimated potential - typically 1-2 kg/m3)

Volta

Limpopo

Nile

Niger

Indus

Ganges

Yellow

River

Mekong

WP (estimated actual - typically 0.1-0.5 kg/m3)

Water Productivity

remains very low over most areas

What is the science potential ?

• Life Science Revolution – molecular biology • Molecular markers for marker aided selection

• Characterizing genetic diversity

• Creating new gene pools

• IT revolution – crop management, precision agriculture • Satellite information to predict crop growth

• Cheap sensors from soil moisture to weather

• Mobile phones for extension and market info

• Holistic approach – ecological intensification • Landscape approach

• Farming systems and livelihood strategies

• Access to markets, value chains, nutrition, food safety

10-5 human

hair

Nanopore Technology

Will Lower Costs Even More

DNA Sequencing Costs Plummeting:

Life sciences more dynamic than IT

CGIAR Research Agenda

• 120 million rice farmers feed 3.5 billion people

• 1 billion people extremely poor and 650 million hungry depend on rice – more coming…

No slowdown in global rice consumption Rice fastest growing food commodity in SSA

CGIAR Research Program on Rice

‘000 milled tonnes

=> Increase rice production that is affordable to poor and profitable to farmers (and value chain)

But… future: less and more expensive resources,

more hostile environment (climate change)

Global challenge and global threats

concerted global action

CRP Rice

Theme 1 ----- Theme 2, 3,4 -------------------------- Theme 5 Theme 6

Genes, varieties, management technologies, information gateway, models, data, tools, capacity, etc

Products locally adapted and promoted by public, NGO, and private sector

Products adopted by farmers, value chain actors, policy makers, other stakeholders

Increased nutritious rice production

Stable and affordable price of rice

Increased resource use efficiency

Rural Poverty

Nutrition and health

Food Security

Sustainability

Products Intermediate Development Outcomes Impact

Development partnerships Science partnerships

Timeline

Farmers: 1000s 10.000s 100.000s millions

GRiSP

SRF

Product: Submergence-tolerant rice

> 25 years of ‘discovery science’: gene, markers,…

11 million ha flood prone

Swarna-Sub1

17 d submergence

2006: Swarna-Sub1 developed by marker assisted backcrossing

Farmers’ submergence tolerant landraces collected; FR13A

1950 1978 1990 2000 2010

Gene bank screened; FR13A identified

Semi-dwarf & submergence tol. combined

First high-yielding dwarf varieties

1995: Sub1 mapped to Chr. 9 Fine mapping & marker development initiated

2002: Swarna crossed with IR49830-7 (Sub1)

2006: Sub1-A gene conferring submergence tolerance

2009: Swarna-Sub1 released in Indian, Indonesia, IR64-Sub1 in Indonesia, Philippines

2008: Sub1-A mode of action: inhibit response to GA

2010: Two Sub1 varieties released in Bangladesh

Swarna-Sub1 Timeline in in India

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

2 kg

~ 700 ~5,000

PartnersNARES

(2)

NARES

(8)

+

NGOs, FOs, S

eed Co (P)

(22)

+ NFSM, State

Govs., Seed Co

(P&Pv), NGOs,

IPs (54)

100

public &

private

sector

Multiplication EvaluationEvaluation, De

monstration

Seed Mult (boro)

Release

(June), Seed

Mult. (BS

+TL), Demonstr.

100 kg 3,000 kg 15 tons

BS: 170 t

TL: 450 t

FS : > 500

BS/FS/CS/

TL,10,000 t

(+FS)

>100,000

Activities

Seed

amount

No. of

Farmers

Dissemination, adoption, tacking

& impact assessment

2011

>130

public &

private

sectors

BS/FS/

CS/TL,

40000 t

(+FS)

1.3 mil

2012

4.0 mil

Swarna-Sub1 reached about 3 million farmers in India and 0.5 million in Bangladesh by 2012

and B’Desh

Breeding status Africa 2011: sub1 works in

elite African rice germplasm

WITA 4 x Swarna sub1 BC2F1

NERICA L-19 x IR64 sub1 F1

FARO 57 x Swarna sub1 BC1F1

October 2012: urgent request from Nigerian

Minister of Agriculture for submergence

tolerant rice

New Products: “2 in 1” Submergence + salinity tolerance

12 million ha salt affected

10 days submerged in saline water

Sub1 only SalTol+ Sub1

A4NH How Can Agriculture Improve Nutrition & Health?

• Improve nutrition quality and food safety in value

chains for nutrient-rich foods

• Via biofortified staple crops—5 biofortified crops

have been released since 2007; approx. 4 million

households will be growing those crops by end of

2015

• Recent releases:

– Vitamin A cassava released in December 2011

– Vitamin A maize released in 2012 in Nigeria and

Zambia

– Iron beans released in Rwanda in 2012

– Iron pearl millet commercialized in India in 2012

by private company

• Via diet diversity

• Through linking agriculture with nutrition and

health programs, policies, and investments

2011

Cassava

Provitamin A

DR Congo, Nigeria

2012

Beans

Iron (Zinc)

DR Congo, Rwanda

2012

Maize

Provitamin A

Zambia

2012

Pearl Millet

Iron (Zinc)

India

2013

Rice

Zinc

Bangladesh, India

2013

Wheat

Zinc

India, Pakistan

A4NH Micronutrient Crops

2014-2018 Delivery-at-scale: 40 million people from 8 target countries

CGIAR Research Program Climate Change Technologies, practices, partnerships, and policies for:

Adaptation to

Progressive Climate Change

Adaptation through

Managing Climate

Risk

Pro-poor Climate Change

Mitigation

Integration for Decision Making

Linking Knowledge with Action

Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and

Planning

Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis

Global engagement and synthesis

http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/analogues/

With World

Climate

Research

Program

Farms of the Future

Farms of the Future Journey to Beora’s Plausible Futures

Blog story: http://www.trust.org/alertnet/blogs/climate-conversations/finding-the-future-of-beora/

Increased focus among partners on raising capacity in forestry sector

Highlight: Survey in 2005 found less than 10 active researchers in DRC –

a country that represent 60% of the Congo Basin’s forests. Project at the

University of Kisangani: 53 MSc students trained (22 about to start); 6 PhDs

completed & 13 PhDs ongoing. Separate project in Congo Basin on climate

change adaptation trained 40 MSc students

Success Story: Capacity building

Congo Basin: Africa’s last rainforests

Bill

& M

elin

da

Gat

es F

ou

nd

atio

n

CGIAR Genebanks

The genetic diversity treasure chest

Bill

& M

elin

da

Gat

es F

ou

nd

atio

n

International collections

Bill

& M

elin

da

Gat

es F

ou

nd

atio

n

Genebank Samples Distributed per Year

Source: Collections online databases, publications, and personal communications between Trust and Genebank Managers, 2008,-2010

• Australian ACIAR 2011 impact assessment of IRRI’s rice breeding in Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines

• Benefits: $1.46 billion per year from 1985 - 2009

ACIAR Impact Assessment of CGIAR

Upswing in CGIAR Investment

725

766

855

20

1972 dollars, 121

1,000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

US

$ m

illio

n

CGIAR Total Funding Trends Nominal and in 1972 dollars

Actual, Nominal 1972 dollars Target _____ projected, nominal

Conclusions

• Food Security: the greatest challenge facing

humanity in coming decades

• Revitalizing agriculture after decades of neglect

• Focus: hunger, poverty, malnutrition, environment

• Science and technology driven innovation is key

• Investment in research through CGIAR and partners is critical – investors doubling $$ in 5 years to $1Bn

THANK YOU