Sample of Tsi Reports

8/18/2019 Sample of Tsi Reports

1/31

TSI Steel Reference Prices

TSI Average Monthly HRC Reference Prices

For further details of the methodology used, log-in to the website:

www.thesteelindex.com

This information has been prepared by The Steel Index ("TSI"). Use of the information presented here is at your sole risk, and any content, material and/or data presented or

otherwise obtained through your use of the information in this document is at your own discretion and risk and you will be solely responsible for any damage to you personally oryour company or organisation or business associates whatsoever which in anyway results from the use, reliance or application of such content material and/or information. Certaindata has been obtained from various sources (listed on the final page) and any copyright existing in such data shall remain the property of the source. Except for the foregoing, TSI

retains all copyright within this document. The copying or redistribution of any part of this document without the express written authority of TSI is forbidden.

© Copyright The Steel Index 2016

March 24, 2016 Daily Steel Edition

Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) 1-day change 1-week change 4-week change Low* High*

N.Europe (€/tonne) 338 = 0 0.0% = 0 0.0% 15 +4.6% 314 405

S.Europe (€/tonne) 326 = 0 0.0% 16 +5.2% 36 +12.4% 276 400

USA (US$/short ton) 421 2 +0.5% 10 +2.4% 19 +4.7% 364 476

Asean Imports (US$/tonne) 383 1 -0.3% 20 +5.5% 80 +26.4% 271 396

*Past 12 Months

TSI HRC Reference Prices - Domestic Markets (US$/tonne) European & US Steel Market Commentary

- Following a few weeks of continuous price rises in the European steelmarket, TSI’s hot rolled coil indices had a more stable week. NorthEuropean mills were heard offering HRC near the €350/tonne mark, buttransaction prices remained around €10/t lower, as market participantspointed to aggressive offers from some steel service centers as a factor limiting the pace of price increases in the region. Similarly, the SouthEuropean market has largely absorbed the recent price hike, but

discounts were still available to official mills’ asking prices. TSI’s SouthEuropean HRC index gained €40/t from the beginning of February andsome buyers commented that such rises have been steep enough withdoubts being casted as to whether steel producers would be able toachieve further increases in the near term.

- The price of US HRC rose this week to US$421/short ton FOBMidwest Mill following the latest price increases announced by steelproducers. Steel producers noted that a rise in scrap prices, due totighter availability was one of the reasons for higher coil offers, whilstthe recent price surge in iron ore and Asian steel were also cited.

ASEAN Steel Market Commentary

- TSI’s ASEAN HRC index finished at US$383/tonne, an increase ofUS$20/t from a week ago. With the absence of Japanese andTaiwanese suppliers, Vietnamese re-rolling mills were faced with asupply shortage for their May shipment orders. This left Chinese steel

producers as the main suppliers to the ASEAN imports market, despiteconstantly rising offer prices. Towards the end of the week, marketactivity had started to slow, as a weakening domestic steel market inChina put ASEAN buyers on alert and into a wait-and-see mode. HRCcargoes (SAE 1006 grade) for June delivery were heard to be offeredbetween US$390-400/t, but buyers’ interest remained muted. OneVietnamese re-roller commented that predicting demand during thehistorically rainy month of June would be a challenge. All prices quotedon a CFR ASEAN port basis.

TSI HRC Average Delivery Lead-Times (weeks)

Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar MTD

N.Europe: Ex-mill (€/tonne) 373.14 345.77 329.48 316.86 319.35 322.67 333.72

S.Europe: Ex-mill (€/tonne) 337.00 297.64 286.52 280.81 286.40 288.05 306.83

USA: FOB Midwest Mill (US$/short ton) 446.32 418.32 381.57 369.90 391.00 400.10 408.83

Asean Imports: CFR Asean Port (US$/tonne) 292.40 279.73 275.40 274.36 290.90 296.95 357.11


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Spreads and Indicative Costs

Average Monthly Spreads (US$/metric tonne)

Steel Production


HRC Spreads to Chinese Exports (US$/tonne) HRC-Scrap Spread: US HRC to US Shredded Scrap (US$/tonne)

Hot Metal Spread – ASEAN Imports HRC vs Iron Ore (US$/t) Indicative Raw Material Costs vs N. European HRC Price (US$/t)

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar MTD

US HRC (FOB Midwest Mill) – HRC Chinese Exports (FOB China Port) 197 159 146 157 156 122

US HRC (FOB Midwest Mill) – US Shredded scrap (Delivered Mill) 283 257 241 247 258 250

Hot Metal Spread: ASEAN Imports HRC – 62%Fe Iron Ore Imports (CFR China) 198 204 213 227 225 271

North European HRC (Ex-works) – Raw Material Costs 212 187 188 189 194 178

US Crude Steel Production (mil lion tonnes) China 10-Day Annualised CISA Crude Steel Output (million t)


3/31

HR Coil Steel Derivatives and Futures

Trade Data

This information has been prepared by The Steel Index ("TSI"). Use of the information presented here is at your sole risk, and any content, material and/or data presented orotherwise obtained through your use of the information in this document is at your own discretion and risk and you will be solely responsible for any damage to you personally or

your company or organisation or business associates whatsoever which in anyway results from the use, reliance or application of such content material and/or information. Certaindata has been obtained from various sources (listed on the final page) and any copyright existing in such data shall remain the property of the source. Except for the foregoing, TSI



HRC Spot Price and Forward Curve - N. Europe (€/tonne) HRC Spot Price and Forward Curve - ASEAN Imports (US$/tonne)

HRC Forward Prices

PeriodNorthernEurope

(€/tonne)

Change(d-o-d)

ASEAN Imports(US$/tonne)

Change(d-o-d)

Mar 16 331.10 0.00 355.53 +1.78

Apr 16 340.00 0.00 370.60 +1.60

May 16 340.00 0.00 369.80 +1.60

Jun 16 340.00 0.00 369.80 +1.60

Q2`16 340.00 0.00 370.07 +1.60

Q3`16 340.00 0.00 366.20 +1.60

Q4`16 340.00 0.00 366.80 +1.60

Cal-17 361.25 0.00 370.00 0.00

HRC forward prices are the mid-points of the previous day's settlement values.Sources: LCH.Clearnet (Northern Europe), Singapore Exchange (ASEA imports)

Hot Metal Spread Forward Price – ASEAN HRC vs Iron Ore (US$/t)

Spread between ASEAN HRC imports price and 1.6 * 62% Fe iron ore fines price.Sources: TSI (historical data), Singapore Exchange (forward data)

EU(28) Flat Steel Imports (million tonnes) US Flat Carbon Steel Imports by Origin (million tonnes)


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Product and Price Specifications

Differentials Applied in Compiling HRC Asean Imports Index

This information has been prepared by The Steel Index ("TSI"). Use of the information presented here is at your sole risk, and any content, material and/or data presented orotherwise obtained through your use of the information in this document is at your own discretion and risk and you will be solely responsible for any damage to you personally oryour company or organisation or business associates whatsoever which in anyway results from the use, reliance or application of such content material and/or information. The

copying or redistribution of any part of this document without the express written authority of TSI is forbidden.


Japan HR Coil Carbon Steel Exports (million tonnes) Chinese HR Coil Steel Exports (million tonnes)

Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) - Northern Europe DomesticGrade: Prime mild carbon steel EN10111 DD11 (or equivalent)Dimensions: Gauge: 2.5-8.0mm; Width: 1250-1600mmCoil Weight: 10-25 metric tonnesOrder Size: 100 metric tonnes minimumPrice Point: Net effective base price, Ex-mill, North European basing point

Including surcharges (e.g. scrap surcharge); Excluding extras (e.g. non-standard dimensions or order sizes)Price Units: € per metric tonne

Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) - Southern Europe DomesticGrade: Prime mild carbon steel EN10111 DD11 (or equivalent)Dimensions: Gauge: 2.0-4.0mm; Width: 1250-1600mmCoil Weight: 14-25 metric tonnesOrder Size: 100 metric tonnes minimumPrice Point: Net effective base price, Ex-mill

Including surcharges (e.g. scrap surcharge); Excluding extras (e.g. non-standard dimensions or order sizes)Price Units: € per metric tonne

Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) - US Domestic

Grade: Prime mild carbon steel ASTM A1011 CS/DS (or equivalent)Dimensions: Gauge: 5/64" upwards; Width: 48-72"Coil Weight: 20,000-50,000 lbs (10-25 short tons)Order Size: 100 short tons minimumPrice Point: FOB US Midwest mill

Including surcharges (e.g. scrap surcharge); Excluding extras (e.g. non-standard dimensions or order sizes)Price Units: US$ per short ton

Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) - Asean ImportsGrade: Prime mild carbon steel SAE 1006, SPHC or SPHT-1 (or equivalent)Dimensions: Gauge: up to 3mm; Width: 900-2000mmCoil Weight: 10-30 metric tonnesOrder Size: 500 metric tonnes minimumPrice Point: CFR Asean Port (Singapore) for Chinese origin HRC

Excluding surcharges and extras (e.g. non-standard dimensions or order sizes)Price Units: US$ per metric tonne

Grade

Destinations

Grade Differential (US$/t) 1-day change (US$/t)

SS400 9.00 0.00

Destination Differential (US$/t) 1-day change (US$/t)

Singapore 0.00 0.00

Indonesia 2.00 0.00

Thailand 2.00 0.00

Vietnam 0.00 0.00

Origins

Origin Differential (US$/t) 1-day change (US$/t)

China 0.00 0.00

India 28.00 0.00

Japan 0.00 0.00

S. Korea 10.00 0.00

Taiwan 0.00 0.00

All differentials applied reflect current market averages for spot transactions.


5/31

Index Rationale and Data Exclusions

Contact The Steel Index

Sources: American Iron & Steel Institute [for US crude steel production and capacity utilisation data]; CISA [for China Crude Steel Output];Eurofer [for EU(28) Flat Steel Imports]; US Department of Commerce [for US flat carbon steel imports. The most recent month's values are preliminary, based on SIMA data];

Japan Iron & Steel Federation (JISF) [for Japan wide HR coil carbon steel exports]; China Customs data [for Chinese medium-wide HR coil steel exports].


your company or organisation or business associates whatsoever which in anyway results from the use, reliance or application of such content material and/or information. Certaindata has been obtained from various sources (listed on the final page) and any copyright existing in such data shall remain the property of the source. Except for the foregoing, TSI


The Steel Index is owned by Platts, part of McGraw Hill Financial.


Index Compilation Rationale

TSI indices are compiled from data provided by companies that are part of the steel supply chain and

involved in spot market transactions. The indices are calculated using detailed transaction-level datasubmitted to TSI by these companies. This data is normalised to the appropriate specifications andscreened to remove outliers before volume-weighted average prices are calculated from the remainingcore set of data.

For more details on TSI's steel methodology please download the guide published on our website

at: www.thesteelindex.com/en/procedures-methodology/

Data Exclusions*

* Number of price submissions for benchmarkindices that were excluded from indexcalculations today as they were anomalous andcould not be verified

HRC Northern Europe: 0

HRC Southern Europe: 0HRC ASEAN imports: 0

UNITED KINGDOM

20 Canada Square, 12th Floor Canary WharfLondonE14 5LH

Tel: +44 20 7176 7667Fax: +44 20 7176 7961

Vaseem [email protected]

UNITED STATES

424 South 27th StreetSuite 306PittsburghPA 15203

Tel: +1 412 431 0584Fax: +1 412 431 4371

Kurt [email protected]

SINGAPORE

12 Marina Boulevard, #23-01Marina Bay Financial CentreTower 3Singapore 018982

Tel: +65 6216 1057Fax: +65 6532 2700

Terry [email protected]

CHINA

3301 Shanghai Plaza138 Huai Hai Zhong Lu (M)Shanghai200021

Tel: +86 21 5110 5485Fax: +86 21 5110 5480

Julie Jiang江南[email protected]


6/31

TSI Benchmark Scrap Prices

TSI Supplementary Scrap Reference Prices: Turkish Imports


Week ending March 18, 2016 (Week 11) Scrap Edition (Weekly)

Turkish Imports (CFR Iskenderun Port, Turkey) 1-week change 4-week change Low* High*

HMS 1/2 80:20, deep-sea (US$/tonne) 221 13 +6.3% 46 +26.3% 169 289

USA (Delivered US Midwest Mill)

Shredded (US$/long ton) 204 1 +0.5% 22 +12.1% 166 282

Taiwanese Imports (CFR Taiwan Port)

HMS 1/2 80:20 [containerized] (US$/tonne) 194 14 +7.8% 34 +21.3% 138 243

Indian Imports (CFR Indian Port - West Coast)

Shredded [containerized] (US$/tonne) 223 13 +6.2% 21 +10.4% 189 298

*past 12 months ** Price shown for Turkish imports is weekly average of TSI's daily index prices

TSI Benchmark Scrap Prices (US$/tonne) This Week’s Scrap Market: Turkey and the US

-TSI’s daily benchmark index for deep-sea Turkish imports of HMS#1&2 80:20 rose US$19/tonne from last Friday to end the week at

US$230/t CFR Iskenderun port. The increase in the scrap pricecontinued to power on, despite other market indicators such as iron oreand Chinese billet dropping back from recent highs. Participants statedthe increased price paid for scrap was still largely sentiment driven,with margins now surely becoming pinched as higher rebar offersstruggle to gain traction. Scrap buyers are nevertheless forced into thisposition, with scrap in short supply.

-TSI’s US Midwest weekly shredded index gained a modest dollar thisweek to US$204/long ton (delivered mill). Action on the US East Coastwas rampant, however, as export offers for obsolete scrap surged amidtightening supply levels. Asking prices to the Turkish market were seenabove US$230/l. ton this week, but this level was initially resisted byTurkish mills. For now, the domestic Midwest market remains steady,and participants believe that the significant increase in US export offersis in part the result of some in the market attempting to move ahead ofthe April buy-week - for which expectations remain equally bullish.

This Week’s Scrap Market: Asia and India

-TSI’s index for containerized Taiwanese imports of HMS #1&2 80:20increased US$14/tonne to US$194/t CFR Taiwanese port this week.ISRI grade scrap offer prices into Taiwan have been rising for the lastcouple of weeks, with the reason being that India, Turkey and some ASEAN countries have been willing to pay higher prices for scrap andTaiwanese mills have been finding it difficult to compete with them formaterial in a tightly supplied market. Taiwanese domestic longsmarkets remain weak as stockists and end users in the region continueto draw upon stocks rather than placing orders for finished steel givenglobally rising spot prices. Mills have also been very cautious ofoperating costs when considering the current spread between scrapand domestic rebar prices. Although mills have, reluctantly, been willingto pay higher prices for scrap, suppliers have been releasing smallvolumes due to there still being a significant price gap with internationalscrap prices.

-TSI’s containerized shredded index for Indian imports roseUS$13/tonne to finish the week at US$223/t CFR Nhava Sheva port.Increased Indian demand, coupled with rising international prices, hasmeant Indian buyers have also had to hike their bids significantly tomeet their melting requirements. Scrap buyers have to compete for anincreasingly small pool of scrap, with some scrap merchants heard tobe holding on to material in the expectation of higher prices to come.

TSI Benchmark Scrap Prices (US$/tonne)

Turkish Imports (CFR Marmara Port, Turkey) 1-week change 4-week change Low* High*

A3, short-sea (US$/tonne) 214 13 +6.5% 46 +27.4% 154 278

Turkish Imports (CFR Iskenderun Port, Turkey)

Shredded, deep-sea (US$/tonne) 226 13 +6.1% 46 +25.6% 175 292

Plate and Structural, deep-sea (US$/tonne) 231 13 +6.0% 46 +24.9% 181 298

*past 12 months


7/31

TSI Average Monthly Scrap Prices

Scrap – Steel Spreads

Average Monthly Scrap Spreads (US$/metric tonne)

Scrap Derivatives and News Headlines


Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar MTD

Turkish Imports: HMS 1/2 80:20, deep-sea (US$/tonne) 206.18 178.55 195.52 188.95 185.75 177.05 209.14

USA: Shredded (US$/long ton) 215.00 181.25 166.20 169.75 187.25 186.40 203.50

Taiwanese Imports: HMS 1/2 80:20 [containerized] (US$/tonne) 161.75 140.25 147.80 151.50 160.25 161.00 187.00

Indian Imports: Shredded [containerized] (US$/tonne) 223.75 193.50 200.60 203.00 205.50 202.40 216.50

Turkish Imports: A3, short-sea (US$/tonne) 183.75 160.00 180.00 173.25 179.00 173.00 207.50

Turkish Imports: Shredded, deep-sea (US$/tonne) 203.50 182.50 199.00 193.25 191.00 185.00 219.50

Turkish Imports: Plate and Structural, deep-sea (US$/tonne) 210.25 188.25 202.20 198.75 196.00 190.00 224.50

Spread: US Shredded Scrap to US HRC (US$/metric tonne) Spreads: Turkish scrap imports to billet and rebar (US$/tonne)

Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar MTDUS HRC - US shredded scrap 280.38 282.73 257.04 240.68 246.71 257.57 247.33

Black Sea Billet Exports - Turkish HMS 1/2 80:20 scrap imports 79.07 89.95 76.68 63.55 62.50 72.55 79.86

Turkish Rebar - Turkish HMS 1/2 80:20 scrap imports 155.57 151.70 142.68 134.30 137.25 145.95 n/a

Scrap Prices and Forward Curve for Turkish Imports (US$/tonne) Platts Top Scrap News Headlines

March 18, 2016

-Taiwan mill accepts $195/mt CFR US container offers-Turkish domestic ship scrap prices rise to $220/mt-Turkish scrap prices continue to rise in bullish sentiment

© Platts 2016


8/31

Additional Scrap Market Data


Turkish Imports by Origin (million tonnes) US Scrap Exports by Destination (million tonnes)

Indicative Freight Rates to Turkey (US$/tonne) Indicative Freight Rates to Asia (US$/tonne)

US Steel Mill Capacity Utilisation Rates Scrap – Iron Ore Fe Ratio


9/31


10/31


Sources: Platts, London Metal Exchange (LME), Turk Stat.


your company or organisation or business associates whatsoever which in anyway results from the use, reliance or application of such content material and/or information. Certaindata has been obtained from various sources (listed above) and any copyright existing in such data shall remain the property of the source. Except for the foregoing, TSI retains all

copyright within this document. The copying or redistibution of any part of this document without the express written authority of TSI is forbidden.

The Steel Index is owned by Platts, part of McGraw Hill Financial.


Transactions for the following specifications are normalised to the relevant reference product

Turkish Imports

Material: Heavy Melt Scrap (HMS) 1 & 2, blended in an 70:30 Mix. ISRI codes 200-206 inclusive. HMS1 wrought iron and steelscrap ¼” and over in thickness. HMS2 wrought iron and steel scrap, black and galvanised 1/8” and over in thickness.Grades 205 and 206 to exclude cast iron and thin gauge materials.


Material: Shredded obsolete scrap. ISRI codes 210-212 inclusive. Homogenous iron and steel scrap, magnetically separated.Originating from automobiles, unprepared no.1 & no. 2 steel, miscellaneous baling and sheet scrap. Average density 60 (50-70) pounds per cubic foot.

Material: Plate and Stuctural. ISRI codes 231, 232, 236 & 237. Cut structural and plate scrap, not less than ¼” in thickness, 5' inlength and under, less than 24” in width. Phosphorus or sulphur not over 0.05%.

Material: Russian A3 scrap. Wrought iron and steel scrap ¼” and over in thickness

Material: Bonus grade scrap. ISRI codes 229, 230, 231, 232, 233, 236, 237, 238, 241, 249 and/or IRSI railroad ferrous scrap.

Minimum lot sizes:

Deep-sea: 5,000 metric tonnes (1,000 metric tonnes as part of a mixed cargo)Short-sea: 1,000 metric tonnesBonus Grade: 1,000 metric tonnes (as part of a mixed cargo)

US Domestic

Material: Heavy Melt Scrap Number 1 (HMS). ISRI codes 200-202 inclusive. HMS1 wrought iron and steel scrap ¼” and over inhickness, not over 60 inches x 18 inches, prepared in a manner to ensure compact charging.

Material: Plate and Structural ISRI codes 231, 232, 236 & 237. Cut structural and plate scrap, not less than ¼” in thickness, 5' inlength and under, less than 24” in width. Phosphorus or sulphur not over 0.05%.

Indian Imports (Containerised)

Material: Shredded obsolete scrap. ISRI code 210. Homogenous iron and steel scrap, magnetically separated. Originating fromautomobiles, unprepared No.1 and No.2 steel, miscellaneous baling and sheet scrap. Average density 50 pounds per cubicfoot.

Material: Shredded obsolete scrap. ISRI code 211. Homogenous iron and steel scrap, magnetically separated. Originating from

automobiles, unprepared No.1 and No.2 steel, miscellaneous baling and sheet scrap. Average density 70 pounds per cubicfoot.


UNITED KINGDOM

20 Canada Square, 9th FloorCanary Wharf LondonE14 5LH

Tel: +44 20 7176 7667

Fax: +44 20 7176 7961

Phillip [email protected]

UNITED STATES


Tel: +1 412 431 0584

Fax: +1 412 431 4371

Kurt Fowler [email protected]

SINGAPORE


Tel: +65 6530-6413

Fax: +65 6532-2700

Tim [email protected]

CHINA


Tel: +86 21 5110 5459

Fax: +86 21 5110 5480

Julie Jiang江南[email protected]


11/31

TSI Benchmark Iron Ore Prices

TSI Supplementary Iron Ore Reference Prices

Full specifications for all indices are shown on page 4. The supplementary reference prices are derived from the same transaction data sample as TSI's indices in the table at thetop of this page, with appropriate value-in-use adjustments made for Fe content, impurities and delivery port. Financial forward contracts settle against TSI's benchmark 62% Feand 58% Fe 1.5% Alumina indices.

To view full price histories, different currencies and units over time periods of your choice, log-in to TSI Price Analyser www.thesteelindex.com

The Steel Index is owned by Platts, part of McGraw Hill Financial


March 28, 2016 Iron Ore Daily Edition

Iron Ore Fines, Chinese Imports 1-Day Change 1-Week Change 4-Week Change Low* High*

62% Fe (CFR Tianjin Port, China) 55.2 0.3 -0.5% 2.8 -4.8% 6.3 +12.9% 37.0 65.4

58% Fe, 1.5% Al (CFR Qingdao Port, China) 51.0 0.1 -0.2% 1.6 -3.0% 6.8 +15.4% 35.3 59.9

*past 12 months

To-date averages

Rolling averages

TSI 62% Fe FOB Net Back / Implied Europe CFR (US$/dry tonne)

Iron Ore Fines, Chinese Imports MTD QTD Q-1TD YTD

62% Fe (CFR Tianjin Port, China) 55.81 47.66 55.81 47.66

58% Fe, 1.5% Al (CFR Qingdao Port, China) 51.16 43.06 51.16 43.06

Iron Ore Fines, Chinese Imports 5-day 10-day 15-day 30-day

62% Fe (CFR Tianjin Port, China) 56.78 55.53 56.95 52.98

58% Fe, 1.5% Al (CFR Qingdao Port, China) 51.82 50.88 52.63 48.28

Implied FOB Implied CFR Europe Implied CFR Europe QTD

Brazil 49.50 52.65 44.87

W.Australia 52.20

India 49.95

Today's Iron Ore Market

It was a quiet start to the week after the longEaster weekend, though one full of mixedsignals. An Australian miner sold 61% Febasis PB Fines via tender between 55-56. Itlater reportedly offered another cargo on a62% Fe basis over globalORE at 56.9 (whichwas bid at 53), as well as a cargo on COREXat 56 basis 61% Fe. In China, the price of ironore stocked at port slipped slightly compared

with last week. The futures were down (DCElost 2.6% and SHFE rebar just over 0.5%)though physical steel prices posted stronggains over the weekend. Spot rebar priceswere RMB 100/t higher compared with lastThursday; spot billet rose RMB 30/t duringthe weekend and were flat today. Spot billetprices in Tangshan were down RMB 40/t. Allprices US$/dmt CFR China unless otherwisestated.

TSI Benchmark Iron Ore Prices - Chinese Imports (US$/dmt) TSI 62% Fe Iron Ore Swaps/Futures Assessment (US$/dmt)

Forward prices assessed for TSI benchmark 62% Fe iron ore fines CFR Tianjin port(18:30 Singapore time today)

Period Price Change (day-on-day)

March 16 56.00 -0.25

April 16 51.50 -3.25

May 16 50.00 -3.00

June 16 48.25 -3.00

Q2 16 50.00 -3.00

Q3 16 46.00 -0.50

Q4 16 43.25 -3.00

Calendar-17 36.25 -4.50

Iron Ore Fines, Chinese Imports 5-Day Average MTD Average QTD Average Q-1M To Date*

62% Fe, 2% Al (CFR Qingdao Port, China) 55.5 57.08 +4.6% 56.11 +20.3% 47.96 +2.5% 56.11 +32.0%

63.5/63% Fe (CFR Qingdao Port, China) 55.8 57.38 +4.6% 56.41 +20.2% 48.29 +2.5% 56.41 +31.3%

65% Fe (CFR Qingdao Port, China) 59.1 60.68 +5.5% 59.16 +20.5% 50.66 +0.3% 59.16 +30.6%


12/31

Price Guides for Chinese Port Stocks and Domestic Iron Ore

Port Stocks

Steel and Iron Ore Pricing


Port Stock Price, 62% Fe import parityequivalent (US$/dmt)

1-day change(US$/dmt)

1-week change(US$/dmt)

53.0-54.0 -0.5 -3.5

Domestic 65% Fe concentrate ex-Shandong mine D/Apayment basis (RMB/dmt)

1-week change(RMB/dmt)

505-525 0

Chinese Iron Ore Port Stocks Price (US$/dmt) Chinese Domestic Iron Ore Price

Port stocks prices normalised to TSI 62% Fe index specification. Dollarprices adjusted for moisture, port fees (various), VAT and prevailingexchange rate. Minimum price change = US$0.50/dmt.

Price for 65% Fe concentrate, ex-works, Shandong mine (RMB/dmtincluding VAT). Payment by D/A. Prices updated weekly on Friday.Minimum price change RMB 5/dmt.

Iron Ore Stock - Total at Major Chinese Ports (Million Tonnes) Iron Ore Stock - 4 Major Chinese Ports (Million Tonnes)

Asian HRC Steel Prices ($/t) v 62% Fe Iron Ore Price (US$/dmt) US & N Europe HRC Prices v 62% Fe Iron Ore Price (US$/dmt)


13/31

Iron Ore Imports, Freight and Port Congestion

Iron Ore, Steel and Freight Derivatives Outlook

Freight Forward Prices (voyage basis US$/wet tonne)


Chinese Iron Ore Imports by Origin (million tonnes) Indicative Freight Rates to China (US$/tonne)

Average Load Time - Australia (days) Average Waiting Time for Berth - 4 Major Chinese Ports (days)

TSI 62% Fe Fines Spot and Forward Curve (US$/dry tonne) Steel Futures (US$/tonne)

Voyage Size Load Port Disch. Port Mar-16 Apr-16 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Cal 17

India-China 50kt Goa Qingdao $5.75 $7.00 $7.00 $7.00 $7.00 $7.00

India-China 70kt Goa Qingdao $4.20 $5.00 $5.00 $5.00 $6.00 $6.00

Australia-China 150kt W.Australia Qingdao $3.08 $3.30 $3.40 $3.63 $4.00 $4.00

Brazil-China 150kt Tubarao Qingdao $5.70 $6.13 $6.50 $7.63 $9.00 $9.00


14/31


15/31

TSI Coking Coal Reference Prices

TSI Average Monthly Coking Coal Prices

This information has been prepared by The Steel Index ("TSI"). Use of the information presented here is at your sole risk, and any content, material and/or data presented orotherise obtained throu!h your use of the information in this document is at your on discretion and risk and you ill be solely responsible for any dama!e to you personally or

your company or or!anisation or business associates hatsoeer hich in anyay results from the use, reliance or application of such content material and/or information.

The Steel Index is oned by #latts, part of $c%ra &ill 'inancial.

opyri!ht The Steel Index *+-

March 28, 2016 Coking Coal aily !"ition

A#stralian !$%orts &'() Port !ast Coast A#stralia* 1+"ay change 1+eek change -+eek change .o/ igh/

#remium okin! oal 81 +.+ +.+ +.0 1+.2 3.3 2.2 35.6 +*.5

&ard okin! oal 33 +.+ +.+ +.* 4+.5 .6 .2 3+.2 25.5

Chinese I4%orts &C'R 5ingtang Port, China*

#remium 7$*8 okin! oal 86 +.+ +.+ +.0 4+.2 8.2 3.5 33.6 +6.3

$id19ol 7$*8 okin! oal 82 +.+ +.+ +.6 4+.8 6.- 8.2 3-.3 +5.5

&ard 7$*8 okin! oal 826 +.+ +.+ +.* 4+.* 6.5 8.8 38.8 20.0

*Past 12 Months

TSI Coking Coal )ench4ark Prices + Pre4i#4 Coals &7S9tonne* TSI Coking Coal Reference Prices + ar" Coals &7S9tonne*

To"ay:s Coking Coal Market

Platts ;es ea"lines

March 28, 2016

1 hinese billet prices firm in :uiet market in ;ast 1


16/31

Steel and Iron Ore Pricing

Port Congestion


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retains all copyri!ht ithin this document. The copyin! or redistribution of any part of this document ithout the express ritten authority of TSI is forbidden.

The Steel Index is oned by #latts, part of $c%ra &ill 'inancial.

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US & N Europe HRC Steel v Premium HCC FOB Aus US!"t# Asian HRC Steel Imports v Premium $%' HCC US!"t#

(SI )*Fe Iron Ore vs Premium $%' HCC C+inese Imports# Indicative Crude Steel Costs v Asian HRC Steel Price US!"t#

Average ,oad (ime - Australia da.s# Average /aiting (ime 0or Bert+ - All C+inese Ports da.s#


17/31

Qualifying Coking Coals

Premium Coking Coals

Hard Coking Coals

Coking Coal Reference Product Specifications

Index Rationale and Data Exclusions

Sources: Shanghai Shipping Exchange (China freight rates); Bulk Marine (India freight rates); SSY (Chinese berth aiting ti!es); S" Coal (freight loading ti!es)

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+ Cop$right #he Steel Index ,-./

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Blue Creek 1o*8& Chipanga& Elk5ie& Elk5ie II& 'er!an Creek&'oon$ella& 'ri99l$ Creek& ail Creek& Illaarra& Moranbah 1orth& 1orth'oon$ella& 2ak$2ak$ Creek& %eak 3ons& %eak 3ons 1orth&%re!iu!& 4i5erside& Sara6i& Standard& 7ollo!bi and blended coals

0ustralian Exports Chinese I!portsBurton& Carborough 3ons& Curragh& 3ason& 'regor$& ake


18/31

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19/31

Reference Prices for Week of March 14 - 20, 2016 (Week 11)

To view prices in different currencies log-in to: www.thesteelindex.comUse of the information presented here is at your sole risk, and any content, material and/or data presented or otherwise obtained through your use of the informationin this document is at your own discretion and risk and you will be solely responsible for any damage to you personally or your company or organisation or businessassociates whatsoever which in anyway results from the use, reliance or application of such content material and/or data and/or information.


The Steel Index Reference Prices (Domestic Markets)

USA (FOB Midwest Mill) 1-week change 4-week change Low* High*

HRC (USD/short ton)** 412 6 +1.5% 12 +3.0% 364 476

CRC (USD/short ton) 577 14 +2.5% 33 +6.1% 486 599

HD Galv (USD/short ton) 615 5 +0.8% 49 +8.7% 534 668

Plate (USD/short ton) 490 4 +0.8% 19 +4.0% 449 641

N.Europe (Ex-mill)

HRC (EUR/tonne)** 338 5 +1.5% 14 +4.3% 314 405

CRC (EUR/tonne) 426 6 +1.4% 28 +7.0% 394 492

HD Galv (EUR/tonne) 462 3 +0.7% 28 +6.5% 430 519

Plate (EUR/tonne) 373 3 +0.8% 4 +1.1% 368 493

Rebar (EUR/tonne) 349 1 +0.3% 6 1.7% 346 420

S.Europe (Ex-mill)

HRC (EUR/tonne)** 311 13 +4.4% 22 +7.6% 276 400

CRC (EUR/tonne) 410 18 +4.6% 38 +10.2% 350 472

HD Galv (EUR/tonne) 443 5 +1.1% 28 +6.7% 391 508

Plate (EUR/tonne) 355 16 +4.7% 29 +8.9% 324 472

Rebar (EUR/tonne) 326 2 +0.6% 22 6.3% 324 431

Turkey (Ex-mill)

HRC (USD/tonne) 416 16 +4.0% 95 +29.6% 311 442

CRC (USD/tonne) 515 7 +1.4% 102 +24.7% 404 565

HD Galv (USD/tonne) 638 8 +1.3% 83 +15.0% 543 665

India (DDP Mumbai)

HRC (INR/tonne) 32,952 646 +2.0% 4 +14.2% 28,666 36,903

* Past 12 months ** Prices shown are weekly averages of daily prices

The Steel Index Reference Prices (Exports/Imports)

Chinese Exports (FOB China Port) 1-week change 4-week change Low* High*

HRC (USD/tonne) 343 28 +8.9% 66 +23.8% 256 378

CRC (USD/tonne) 404 25 +6.6% 64 +18.8% 294 447

Asean Imports (CFR Asean Port)

HRC [SAE] (USD/tonne)** 368 14 +4.0% 73 +24.7% 271 396

CRC (USD/tonne) 414 26 +6.7% 56 +15.6% 307 455

Plate (USD/tonne) 346 3 -0.9% 71 +25.8% 267 385

* Past 12 months

** SAE grade. Price shown is weekly average of daily prices

The Steel Index Reference Prices (Domestic Markets)

N.Europe (Ex-mill) 1-week change 4-week change Low* High*

Stainless CRC 304 (EUR/tonne)** 1,825 95 -4.9% 175 -8.8% 1,825 2,228

* Past 12 months

** Under development


20/31

Average Delivery Lead-Times for Week of March 14 - 20, 2016 (Week 11)

Western Europe (domestic mill)

** HRC delivery lead-times shown for Europe, USA and ASEAN Imports are weekly averages of daily data

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Average Delivery Lead-Times - N. Europe (Weeks) Average Delivery Lead-Times - S. Europe (Weeks)

USA (domestic mill) Turkey (domestic mill)

Average Delivery Lead-Times - U SA (Weeks) Average Delivery Lead-Times - T urkey (Weeks)

ASEAN Imports China Exports

Average Delivery Lead-Times - ASEAN Imports (Weeks) Average Delivery Lead-Times - China Exports (Weeks)


21/31

Rebar - Billet Price Spreads for Week of March 14 - 20, 2016 (Week 11) **

Price Spreads History: European Rebar - Black Sea Billet Exports

Rebar prices are TSI weekly prices for Northern and Southern Europe

Black Sea Billet Export prices are weekly averages of daily prices reported by Platts

**Differential between TSI's weekly rebar reference prices (converted into US$ at prevailing exchange rates) and the weekly average Platts FOB BlackSea Billet Export price

To view prices in different currencies log-in to: www.thesteelindex.comUse of the information presented here is at your sole risk, and any content, material and/or data presented or otherwise obtained through your use of the informationin this document is at your own discretion and risk and you will be solely responsible for any damage to you personally or your company or organisation or businessassociates whatsoever which in anyway results from the use, reliance or application of such content material and/or data and/or information.


European Rebar - Black Sea Billet Price Spreads

Europe 1-week change 4-week change Low* High*

N.Europe Rebar-Billet Spread (USD/tonne) 79 14 15.1% 71 -47.3% 70 156

S.Europe Rebar-Billet Spread (USD/tonne) 53 30 36.1% 89 -62.7% 53 154

* past 12 months

Northern Europe Rebar - Black Sea Billet Spread (US$/tonne) Southern Europe Rebar - Black Sea Billet Spread (US$/tonne)

Rebar Prices: Europe (Domestic) Billet Price: Black Sea Export

North and South European Domestic Rebar Prices (US$/tonne) Billet Price - FOB Black Sea Export [Platts] (US$/tonne)


22/31

Reference Price History: April 2014 to March 2016 *

USA (FOB Midwest Mill)

Northern Europe - Ex-works (domestic mill)

Southern Europe - Ex-works (domestic mill)

* Monthly averages

To view full price histories over time periods of your choice, log-in to: www.thesteelindex.comUse of the information presented here is at your sole risk, and any content, material and/or data presented or otherwise obtained through your use of the information



Reference Prices - USA Domestic (US$/short ton) Reference Prices - USA Domestic (US$/short ton)

Reference Prices -N. Europe Domestic (Euro/tonne) Reference Prices -N. Europe Domestic (Euro/tonne)

Reference Prices -S. Europe Domestic (Euro/tonne) Reference Prices -S. Europe Domestic (Euro/tonne)


23/31

Reference Price History: April 2014 to March 2016 *

* Monthly averages

To view full price histories in different currencies log-in to: www.thesteelindex.comUse of the information presented here is at your sole risk, and any content, material and/or data presented or otherwise obtained through your use of the informationin this document is at your own discretion and risk and you will be solely responsible for any damage to you personally or your company or organisation or businessassociates whatsoever which in anyway results from the use, reliance or application of such content material and/or data and/or information.


Turkey – Ex-works (domestic mill) Stainless Steel Europe - Ex-works (domestic mill)

Reference Prices - Turkey Domestic (US$/tonne) Reference Price - N.Europe Stainless (Euro/tonne)

ASEAN Imports - CFR ASEAN Port China Exports - FOB Stowed China Port

Reference Prices - ASEAN Imports (US$/tonne) Reference Prices - China Exports (US$/tonne)


24/31

Average Delivery Lead-Time History: April 2014 to March 2016 *

USA - FOB Midwest Mill (domestic)

Northern Europe - Ex-works (domestic)

Southern Europe - Ex-works (domestic)

* Monthly averages

To view full histories of average delivery lead-times visit the website: www.thesteelindex.comUse of the information presented here is at your sole risk, and any content, material and/or data presented or otherwise obtained through your use of the informationin this document is at your own discretion and risk and you will be solely responsible for any damage to you personally or your company or organisation or business

associates whatsoever which in anyway results from the use, reliance or application of such content material and/or data and/or information.


Average Delivery Lead-Times - USA (Weeks) Average Delivery Lead-Times - U SA (Weeks)

Average Delivery Lead-Times - N. Europe (Weeks) Average Delivery Lead-Times - N. Europe (Weeks)

Average Delivery Lead-Times - S. Europe (Weeks) Average Delivery Lead-Times - S. Europe (Weeks)


25/31

Average Delivery Lead-Time History: April 2014 to March 2016 *

* Monthly averages


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Turkey - Ex-works (domestic mill) Stainless Steel Europe - Ex-works (domestic mill)

Average Delivery Lead-Times -Turkey (Weeks) Average Delivery Lead Times -N.Europe Stainless (Weeks)

ASEAN Imports - CFR ASEAN Port China Exports - FOB Stowed China Port

Average Delivery Lead-Times -ASEAN Imports (Weeks) Average Delivery Lead-Times - China Exports (Weeks)

UNITED KINGDOM

20 Canada Square, 12th Floor Canary Wharf LondonE14 5LH

Tel: +44 20 7176 7667Fax: +44 20 7176 7961

Vaseem [email protected]

CHINA


Tel: +86 21 5110 5485Fax: +86 21 5110 5480

Julie Jiang江南

[email protected]

SINGAPORE


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Terry [email protected]

UNITED STATES


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26/31

© The Steel Index 2015¦ page 1

Contact TSI:

Vaseem Karbhari

Tel: +44 20 7176 7667

[email protected]

Terence Soh

Tel: +86 21 5110 5490

[email protected]

Kurt Fowler

Tel: +1 412 431 0584

[email protected]

February 2015

Summary

US HR coil prices continued their slump in February, as spot prices in the US Midwest plummet-ed to below US$500/short ton. Transaction activity almost ground to a halt in some weeks as thereality of high inventories in the supply chain and the uncertainty of falling prices began to bite.

Rising spot prices in the European steel market prompted confident producers to push for high-er offers for Q2 orders. But from the middle of the month weak demand and competitive importsdampened sentiment and in turn suppressed further coil price rises.

A flurry of export deals closed at lower levels after Chinese mills rushed to secure orders priorto the Lunar New Year holiday shutdown. After returning from the holidays, the trend reversedas sellers raised offer levels and still managed to attract some buyers.

►

►

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United States HR coil steel prices nose-dived in February, continuing on from thecollapse witnessed the month before, as purchasing activity slowedsharply and an overhang of supply continued to contribute to the pricedecline.

TSI’s daily US HR coil index crashed through the US$500/short ton

(FOB Midwest Mill) floor on the final day of the month finishing atUS$493/s. ton, with deals closing as low as US$480/s. ton in the finalweek.

Prices trended steeply downwards throughout the month to bring spotlevels US$100/s. ton lower than two months ago and setting new multi-ple-year lows each week. Many service centres had mentioned theystopped placing orders altogether, with far too much price uncertaintyhampering purchases.

Indeed, in contrast to last month’s price decline, the February fall wasaccompanied by an acute slowdown in transaction activity. Mills exhib-ited textbook price-taker behaviour, accepting almost all bids“regardless of the tons” as one market source put it.

The volatility and price uncertainty in domestic markets also promptedmany traders to halt imports. The timing risk associated with booking

import material which would arrive at a time when domestic marketswere still experiencing price falls was too much for some.

Continued on next page

*Average of TSI's daily prices rounded to nearest whole number, **SAE grade

►

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Benchmark Indices

Northern Europe, Ex-Works (€/tonne)* 413 +1.5% 414 +0.2% 410 -1.0% 406 -1.0%

Southern Europe, Ex-Works (€/tonne)* 401 +1.5% 405 +1.0% 403 -0.5% 399 -1.0%

ASEAN Imports, CFR ASEAN Port (US$/tonne)* 409 -4.4% 393 -2.7% 394 -1.0% 391 -0.8%

USA, FOB Midwest Mill (US$/short ton)* 547 -1.8% 529 -3.3% 519 -1.9% 502 -3.3%

Turkey , Ex-Works (US$/tonne) 498 0.0% 468 -6.0% 464 -0.9% 454 -2.2%

Chinese Exports, FOB China Port (US$/tonne) 377 -4.6% 368 -2.4% 365 -0.8% 377 +3.3%

India, Deliv ered, Duty Paid, Mumbai (Rs/tonne 37,594 -1.4% 36,854 -2.0% 36,736 -0.3% 37,062 +0.9%

Benchmark Indices

Northern Europe, Ex-Works (€/tonne) 411.15 -2.5% 406.29 -1.2% 405.14 -1.2% 410.70 +1.4%

Southern Europe, Ex-Works (€/tonne) 406.35 -2.8% 393.14 -3.3% 389.62 -3.5% 402.05 +3.2%

ASEAN Imports, CFR ASEAN Port (US$/tonne)** 497.00 -0.7% 481.23 -3.2% 449.38 -6.6% 398.28 -11.4%

USA, FOB Midwest Mill (US$/short ton) 643.30 -1.0% 617.81 -4.0% 583.67 -5.5% 524.25 -10.2%

Turkey , Ex -Works (U S$/tonne) 555.25 -4.2% 521.20 -6.1% 508.50 -2.4% 471.00 -7.4%

Chinese Exports, FOB China Port (US$/tonne) 463.75 -2.9% 455.20 -1.8% 420.00 -7.7% 371.75 -11.5%

India, Deliv ered, Duty Paid, Mumbai (Rs/tonne 40,003.25 -3.3% 39,004.20 -2.5% 38,565.50 -1.1% 37,061.50 -3.9%

November December January February

TSI Weekly Steel Hot Rolled Coil Reference Prices (change week-on-week)

TSI Hot Rolled Coil Monthly Average Prices (change month-on-month)

Feb 2-8 Feb 9-15 Feb 16-22 Feb 23-Mar 01

490

520

550

580

610

640

670

700

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

F e b - 1 5

Source: TSI

US Midwest HR coil Spot Prices (FOB Mill, US$/short ton)

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27/31


February 2015

Northern & Southern EuropeBucking the global trend, European coil prices increased in the first halfof February, with TSI’s North and South European HRC indices reach-ing €415/tonne and €405/tonne respectively.

Being reasonably well-booked with contract orders, North Europeanproducers started to push through increases for Q2 bookings, aiming tolift HRC prices by a further €10-20/t. However, sufficiently weak demandin the spot market and low raw material prices shifted negotiating powerto the buyers, who managed to obtain some discounts to the officialasking prices instead. By month-end, the prevailing trading range forNorth European HRC declined to €400-410/t.

Despite pressure from lower -priced imports, South European HRC pric-es remained stable, with TSI’s index moving sideways just above the €400/t mark for most of the month. Producers’ offers stood in the €400-

405/t range, but prices for larger -volume deals fell closer to the €395/tmark by the end of the month.

Problems at Ilva continued, with the truck drivers’ strike blocking deliver-ies from the production site and allowing other suppliers to fulfil ordersinstead. Furthermore, the company announced plans to idle its largestblast furnace from March 19, leading to output cuts of up to 40%.

Crude steel production in the EU in January totalled 14.4 million tonnes,posting a -1.1% y-o-y decrease. Spain recorded a strong +12% y-o-yincrease, while both Italian and French crude output fell by –11% y -o-y.German production grew by +0.5% y-o-y.

According to the German Association of Steel Distribution (BDS), thepace of restocking in January slowed down compared to the previousyears. Total inventory levels fell to 2.3 million tonnes, -5% lower than ayear before. Sales of flat products in January were 539kt, up significant-ly on December sales (as is typical each year), but still -11% lower thanin January 2014.

ArcelorMittal reported financial results for Q4 2014 in which the Europe-an segment recorded its fourth consecutive quarterly operational profitof €122 million.

USA continued...Capacity utilisation dipped below the 75% level in February and then fellsharply to 70.1%, its lowest level since November 2012 according toinitial weekly estimates from the American Iron & Steel Institute (AISI). As a consequence, the February average was

-3.5% lower month

-on

-

month at 73%.

AISI reported a heavy fall in crude steel output (-5.6% m-o-m), averag-ing 1.565 million metric tonnes in January according to weekly data. Ascapacity utilisation rates indicate, there was a significant fall in the sec-ond half of the month.

Preliminary flat carbon steel import data for February registered a heavym-o-m fall of -14% to 1.33 million mt. However, volumes were +27%higher y-o-y according to data released by the US Dept of Commerce.

Steel Import Monitor & Analysis (SIMA) February data showed a largedecline in import tonnages from Brazil (-55.6% m-o-m) to just under67kt and from South Korea (-30.9% m-o-m) to 206kt. There were equal-ly steep declines in import volumes from within the NAFTA region.Some of this was offset by a strong increase from the Indian sub-

continent with volumes totaling 64kt. Japanese data was also higher(+25% m-o-m) to 77kt.

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IndiaDomestic steel prices in Mumbai remain close to multiple-year lowsafter the recent annual budget proved to be a false dawn for domesticproducers expecting a hike in the tariff rate on steel imports. There was

an announcement to increase this from 10% to 15%, but the ambiguouswording of the budget suggests a change would not be imminent. TSI’sindex fell –3.9% m-o-m to Rs37,062/tonne DDP Mumbai in February.

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9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2013 2014 2015

Source: WSA

EU Crude Steel Output ('000 tonnes)

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500

2,600

2,700

2,800

J a n - 1 1

M a r - 1 1

M a y - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

S e p - 1 1

N o v - 1 1

J a n - 1 2

M a r - 1 2

M a y - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

S e p - 1 2

N o v - 1 2

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

Source: BDS

German Distributors' Steel Inventories ('000 tonnes)

150

175

200

225

250

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

F e b - 1 5

US Domestic vs Chinese Exports

Sources: AISI, TSI; Final two months preliminary SIMA values

US Flat Steel Imports (million tonnes) & HRC Spreads (US$/tonne)

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

F e b 0 1 ,

2 0 1 4

F e b 1 5 ,

2 0 1 4

M a r 0 1 ,

2 0 1 4

M a r 1 5 ,

2 0 1 4

M a r 2 9 ,

2 0 1 4

A p r 1 2 ,

2 0 1 4

A p r 2 6 ,

2 0 1 4

M a y 1 0 ,

2 0 1 4

M a y 2 4 ,

2 0 1 4

J u n 0 7 ,

2 0 1 4

J u n 2 1 ,

2 0 1 4

J u l 0 5 ,

2 0 1 4

J u l 1 9 ,

2 0 1 4

A u g 0 2 ,

2 0 1 4

A u g 1 6 ,

2 0 1 4

A u g 3 0 ,

2 0 1 4

S e p 1 3 ,

2 0 1 4

S e p 2 7 ,

2 0 1 4

O c t 1 1 ,

2 0 1 4

O c t 2 5 ,

2 0 1 4

N o v 0 8 ,

2 0 1 4

N o v 2 3 ,

2 0 1 4

D e c 0 6 ,

2 0 1 4

D e c 2 0 ,

2 0 1 4

J a n 0 3 ,

2 0 1 5

J a n 1 7 ,

2 0 1 5

J a n 3 1 ,

2 0 1 5

F e b 1 4 ,

2 0 1 5

F e b 2 8 ,

2 0 1 5

Source:AISI

US Weekly Capacity Utilisation (%)


28/31


►

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February 2015

AsiaIn the run up to the Lunar New Year holiday some buyers avoided re-stocking, opting to remain on the side-lines of the market. Mills continu-ously decreased their offers and TSI’s HRC index for Chinese Exports

(FOB China Port) fell to US$365/tonne before the market shutdown inmid-February. HRC prices started to improve in the final week of themonth in line with the increased offers from producers in the region ofUS$10-15/t.

After a small pick-up in trading activity in the first week of February,when Chinese mills and traders were eager to offload cargoes beforethe start of a holiday period, ASEAN import markets were mostly quietfor the rest of the month. Amid weak demand, sellers were offeringdiscounts to attract more enquiries, bringing prices down. TSI’s bench-mark HRC index fell below the US$400/t floor in the first half of Febru-ary to finish at US$392/t (-6.7% 4-week change).

China’s steel industry PMI slightly improved in February compared tothe previous month by 2.1 points to 45.1, showing the highest reading inthe past four months, but still below the 50 mark for 10 months now.Sub-indices for domestic demand and supply improved, and a sub-

index for new export orders increased by 7.8 points to 43.4.

The Vietnam Steel Association reported that the total production capaci-ty of the country’s steel sector is estimated to be 22 million tonnes, al-most double domestic consumption. The association forecast that thesteel sector will register +11.8% growth this year after growing +12% y -o-y in 2014.

Trade Data

The Japan Iron and Steel Federation reported that HR coil exports fromthe country in January fell by –13% m-o-m to 974kt, a decrease attribut-ed to fierce competition for sales with cheaper -priced Chinese exportoffers.

According to the Korean Iron and Steel Association, in January 2015South Korean HRC imports increased to 584kt (+11% m-o-m) as com-

petitively-priced Chinese material appealed to domestic buyers. HRC

exports in January fell by –27% m-o-m to 162kt. Production of HRCgrew by +4% y-o-y to 37 million tonnes in 2014, despite a downtrend inHRC prices in the second half of the year.

The Iron & Steel Institute of Thailand reported that steel imports into thecountry in 2014 totalled 11.9 million tonnes (-2.9% y-o-y), while exportsstood at 1.4 million tonnes (-3.1% y-o-y). Unsurprisingly, Japan, Chinaand South Korea were the top three steel exporters into Thailand, with5.09, 3.39 and 1.47 million tonnes respectively in 2014.

TurkeyStrong competition from international markets, in particular cheaply-priced Chinese and CIS import offers, coupled with sharp falls in scrapprices, put downward pressure on Turkish domestic coil prices. Faced

with a stagnant market, Turkish mills were forced to decrease their of-fers and TSI’s HRC index fell to US$468/tonne (-US$30/t 1-weekchange) by mid-month.

But this price level did not prove to be attractive, and by the end of Feb-ruary mills dropped their offer prices again, closer to the US$450/t mark. Although producers tried to stop price erosion at this level, bigger -volume buyers were able to obtain further discounts.

The Turkish Steel Exporters’ Union reported that the country’s steelexports during Jan-Feb this year showed a significant decline of -12.8%y-o-y to 2.6 million tonnes. The Middle East remained the main destina-tion for Turkish exports, accounting for 1.1 million tonnes (+7.1% y -o-y).Meanwhile, flat steel imports in January increased +10% y-o-y to 562kt.

The declining trend in Turkey’s steel production continued in January,as crude steel output totalled 2.58 million tonnes, a -10% y-o-y de-

crease, the Turkish Steel Producers’ Association reported. Productionof billet and slab fell to 1.89 million tonnes (-6.8% y-o-y) and 692kt (-18.9% y-o-y) respectively.

Derivatives & FuturesNorth European HR coil swaps (basis-TSI) traded on severaloccasions in February as participants locked in forward prices asfar out as June 2015. Most activity and volumes were concentrat-ed on the front months (April and May 2015).

The forward curve, as of March 5, 2015 was in a very slight con-tango on the nearby swap periods, pricing in a €0.50/tonne premi-um over the benchmark spot price on that day. For Q4 2015 on-wards the curve was a little steeper, with the premium rising to just under €20/t into Q1 2016.

February rounds off 12 months since the launch of SGX’s ASEANHR coil swaps and futures contracts (basis TSI). To-date, a totalof over 125kt of swaps and futures contracts have cleared, withopen interest at 8kt (as of March 5, 2015).

►

►

►

►

►

►

►

►

►

►

►

►

6 4 3

6 1 6

6 5 8 6

0 6 6

1 7

6 7 0

6 3 8

6 3 9 6

5 6 6

6 6

6 5 7 6

4 5

6 6 9

6 7 0

6 4 9 6

6 2

6 6 0

6 4 1 6

6 4

6 6 8

6 1 2

6 5 5

6 5 2

6 5 2 6

5 8

6 4 3

6 0 8

5 9 7

5 9 9

6 2 5

6 3 8 6

5 0

6 2 9

6 5 2

6 1 8

6 1 6

5 9 4

5 9 8

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

F e b 1 -1 0

F e b 1 1 -2 0

F e b 2 1 -2 8

M ar 1 -1 0

M ar 1 1 -2 0

M ar 2 1 - 3 1

A pr 1 -1 0

A pr 1 1 -2 0

A pr 2 1 - 3 0

M a y1 -1 0

M a y1 1 -2 0

M a y2 1 - 3 1

J un e1 -1 0

J un e1 1 -2 0

J un e2 1 - 3 0

J ul y1 -1 0

J ul y1 1 -2 0

J ul y2 1 - 3 1

A u g1 -1 0

A u g1 1 -2 0

A u g2 1 - 3 1

S e p1 -1 0

S e p1 1 -2 0

S e p2 1 - 3 0

O ct 1 -1 0

O ct 1 1 -2 0

O ct 2 1 - 3 1

N ov1 -1 0

N ov1 1 -2 0

N ov2 1 - 3 0

D e c1 -1 0

D e c1 1 -2 0

D e c2 1 - 3 1

J an1 -1 0

J an1 1 -2 0

J an2 1 - 3 1

F e b 1 -1 0

F e b 1 1 -2 0

Source: CISA

y-o-y change (RHS)

Chinese Crude Steel Production (CISA Mills) - 10-day Annualized Output (m t)

380

400

420

440

460

480

500

520

540

560

F e b - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

F e b - 1 5

M a y - 1 5

A u g - 1 5

N o v - 1 5

F e b - 1 6

M a y - 1 6

A u g - 1 6

N o v - 1 6

F e b - 1 7

ASEAN HR Coil Imports (CFR ASEAN Port, US$/tonne)

Sources: TSI (actual) & SGX (forward curve)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

Net Exports

Source: China Customs

Chinese Finished Steel Exports (million tonnes)


29/31


About The Steel Index (TSI)

The Steel Index (TSI) is a leading specialist source of independent steel, iron ore, scrap and coking coal price information based on spot market trans-actions worldwide.

Transaction price data is submitted confidentially to TSI online by companies buying and selling a range of relevant steel, iron ore, scrap and cokingcoal products. TSI’s index reference prices are then calculated using transparent and verifiable procedures.

TSI steel prices are used for the settlement of European hot rolled coil (HRC) steel swap contracts cleared on LCH.Clearnet and CME Clearing Eu-rope and Asian HRC steel futures and swap contracts cleared on the Singapore Exchange (SGX). Contracts settle against the monthly average ofTSI's daily indices for North European HRC, South European HRC and ASEAN HRC imports respectively.

TSI is owned by Platts, part of the McGraw Hill Financial. Further information on TSI, including details of product specifications and procedures, and afree trial of the service are available at www.thesteelindex.com.

This information has been prepared by The Steel Index ("TSI"). Use of the information presented here is at your sole risk, and any content, materialand/or data presented or otherwise obtained through your use of the information in this document is at your own discretion and risk and you will besolely responsible for any damage to you personally or your company or organization or business associates whatsoever which in anyway results

from the use, reliance or application of such content material and/or information. Certain data has been obtained from various sources and any copy-right existing in such data shall remain the property of the source. Except for the foregoing, TSI retains all copyright within this document. The copyingor redistribution of any part of this document without the express written authority of TSI is forbidden.

February 2015

►

Contact The Steel Index (TSI)

UNITED KINGDOM UNITED STATES SINGAPORE CHINA

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Kurt Fowler

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Tim Hard

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Terence Soh

[email protected]

TSI on the market - MarchUS steel producers have speculated they expect to see a rebound in spotprices in May/June as the current draw-down of inventories reaches itspeak. Some buyers share this view, intimating they may have to “dip in tothe market sometime in Q2” to place orders, but cautioned any steel pricerecovery would also depend on the state of the scrap market.

According to Eurofer, European steel exports and domestic demand areexpected to improve during 2015, with activity in the steel intensive sec-tors rising by +2.2% in 2015. Most of the sectors saw their earlier progno-sis slightly downgraded, with the exception of the automotive sector,which is set to increase by +3.8% in 2015. The association sees apparentsteel consumption in the EU growing by around +2% to 149 million tonnesin 2015.

Finished steel imports into the EU are estimated to have risen by +19% y -o-y in 2014 and Eurofer expects this trend to continue. It forecast thatdeliveries from third-country exporters will rise on average +2% per yearin 2015 and 2016.

Reporting its operational results, ArcelorMittal forecast that steel demand in Europe will grow by 1.5% -2.5%, with the effect of a weak Euro and

low oil prices helping to boost confidence within the Eurozone.

The CFLP Steel Logistics Professional Committee (CSLPC) expects to see a moderate pick -up in domestic Chinese steel demand by the end ofthe month with the re-opening of construction projects from mid-March. However, according to the committee, weakness in domestic steel pricesmay remain in the near term due to sharp increases in mills’ inventory levels and project delays owing to severe weather conditions,

►

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390

400

410

420

430

440

450

460

470

480

F e b - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

F e b - 1 5

M a y - 1 5

A u g - 1 5

N o v - 1 5

F e b - 1 6

M a y - 1 6

A u g - 1 6

N o v - 1 6

F e b - 1 7

M a y - 1 7

A u g - 1 7

N o v - 1 7

Actual Forward Curve

North European HR Coil (Ex-works, €/tonne)

Sources:TSI (actual) & LCH (forward curve)

http://www.thesteelindex.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.sgx.com/asiaclear/steelmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.thesteelindex.com/


30/31

China Iron and Steel Association (CISA)

Organization Office

Conference Division, MC-CCPIT 46 Dongsi Xidajie, Beijing 100711, P.R.China

Contact: Ms. May Bai Tel: +86-10-85110095 or 65253747 Fax: +86-10-85110094

E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.steelmarket.org.cn

March 31-April 2, 2015 Shanghai Marriott Hotel Changfeng Park, China

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